Football Betting Tips & Systems: 20 Simple Steps & Strategies

Betting Guide

Contents

Introduction:

Defining Value in Betting:

Getting the best Odds and Using Odds Comparison Sites:

Understanding Expected Goals:

Anomalies in xG:

Expected Assists:

Expected Points:

Individual Player xG:

Individual Player xA:

Key Information to consider before going into each market:

Strength of each team:

Team News:

Tactics:

Context of the Game:

Ignore Buzz Statistics:

Match Result:

Goal Markets:

Leicester City:

Bologna:

Corners:

Cards:

Individual Player Markets:

Summary:

Introduction:

Everyone is always searching for the edge over the bookies, whether it is gambling on football, horse racing, or even at the casino. Unfortunately, there’s no such thing as a quick fix, fool-proof method, and even the top, most profitable gamblers can be working on the tightest of margins. However, with thorough research and understanding the data and statistics the bookmakers use when it comes to football, you can put yourself in the best position to turn a profit.

We will look at a number of different markets, and point you in the direction of what to consider for each one, and how you can potentially find value where others may often struggle.

It is key not to take everything at face value, and always look to delve deeper, combining both statistics and human factors. With such a wide array of data and information now available, and a vast choice of markets, there are unique ways to find value in a congested market, particularly on the well-covered markets such as the Premier League or Champions League. Whether it be a player to have a certain number of shots, or complete a certain number of passes, there are ways to understand these markets and make them as potentially profitable as the traditional markets, and this can often slip under the radar.

Furthermore, understanding the statistics, and having all the key information you need to make an informed decision, can help you understand why a price may be longer or shorter than you might have initially expected, and help you make the informed choice on a number of markets, as well as exploit the rising niche markets, particularly on individual player statistics, if you believe you can understand a match better than the bookmaker’s traders.

We look at some of the key data that bookmakers will consider, covering such concepts as Expected Goals (xG), as well as breaking down individual markets, looking at what key factors contribute to the outcome of a football match and those particular markets, and how by making sure you have a clear understanding of every match, you can bring yourself to make an informed decision.

I’d always recommend sticking to matches you feel you are confident you have the required knowledge to come to an informed decision, or those that you feel like you can contribute the necessary time to find the edge. Although this is not an exhaustive list of what to look for, it will give you an overview, and hopefully start you thinking outside the box as to how to find value in a football match.

Defining Value in Betting:

A concept often talked about in gambling is ‘value’. Value is highlighting where you believe the bookmakers have priced a bet wrongly, with you believing that a particular occurrence has a higher probability of happening that the odds suggest. Simply speaking, if you calculate that something has a one in three chance of winning, yet the bookmakers have offered it up at 5/1, this is a value bet. It is worked on the basis of probability, and you are trying to find the edge where the probability you believe in something occurring is at a higher chance than what the bookmakers