Russia’s decision to end its self-imposed restriction on the deployment of intermediate-range ballistic missiles, has further raised tensions across European capitals and in Washington, amid fears of a nuclear crisis.
The move, announced by Moscow in early August, saw Russia leave the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, after the US had itself earlier departed in 2019. The treaty was intended to limit the deployment and use of ballistic missiles with ranges up to 5,500km, originally signed by the US and Russia in 1987.
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Russia has previously mooted the idea of deploying nuclear-capable ballistic missiles in neighbouring Belarus, a key ally.
Within this is the geopolitical context of Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, and a recent spat between Washington and Moscow over the lack of progress in securing a ceasefire in the more than three-year-old conflict, resulting in the redeployment of US Navy nuclear submarines.
Given all these factors, understanding the true scale of Russia’s nuclear arsenal is critical.
How many nuclear warheads does Russia have?
In late-2024, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released a publication describing the nuclear capabilities of what it called “foreign adversaries”, the second edition from an earlier 2018 missive to address the strategic programmes of China, Russia, and North Korea.
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By GlobalDataRussia’s nuclear-capable missile capabilities are advanced, fielding close-range ballistic missiles (CRBM), ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCM), hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV), intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM), as well as traditional nuclear gravity bombs and other delivery options for the naval and air domain.
The DIA reported that Russia maintained “the largest foreign nuclear stockpile in the world”, with about 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads on ICBMs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), as well as a force of heavy bombers capable of carrying air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs).
In addition, the DIA said Moscow also maintained a stockpile of up to 2,000 nuclear weapons, “designed to be incorporated into delivery systems with ranges shorter than those… in the New START treaty”, also referred to as “non-strategic” weapons.
Signed in 2010, New START was intended to limit the active stockpiles of nuclear weapons held by the US and Russia for a period of ten years, subsequently extended for a further five years in 2021. Set to expire in 2026 with no likelihood of renewal, New START has effectively ceased to function.
The New START treaty did not stop the development of new delivery methods, which was more the realm of the INF agreement.
Russia’s new nuclear strike options
Detailing some under-development nuclear delivery system in 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Russia had developed weapons that could not be countered by existing US countermeasures, including the Sarmat ICBM, Avangard HGV, Kinzhal hypersonic missile, Skyfall nuclear-powered cruise missiles, and the Poseidon nuclear-powered sub-surface strike system.
The DIA reported the Avangard has been integrated into the SS-19 Mod 4 ICBM and that Russia continues to field the SS-27 (RS-24, IOC 2010) ICBM, while the Rubezh road mobile ICBM (RS-26) remains in development.
Sarmat ICBM – The Sarmat ICBM began development in 2016, with the first successful launch in 2022. It can carry different types of nuclear weapons up to the megaton class. The Sarmat ICBM will have the range to hit any target in the world.
Avangard – The Avangard HGV functions as a hypersonic weapon and is designed to eliminate US homeland ballistic missile defences. The system uses an ICBM booster to reach an altitude of 100km, staying below the reach of ballistic missile defences, and then descends to the target at 33,000 km/h.
Kinzhal – The Kinzhal hypersonic missile, also known as the Killjoy, is an air-launched ballistic missile (ALBM). It has a speed of 12,231 km/hr, range of up to 2,000km, and has the ability to make in-flight manoeuvres. The conventional version of the Kinzhal has been used against a variety of targets in Ukraine.
Skyfall – The Russian MoD presented this cruise missile as having a nuclear-powered engine, which would theoretically give it intercontinental range, in addition to the ability to fly for several days. The missile remains in testing and saw a catastrophic failure in 2019, which killed five scientists during the missile recovery operation. All tests prior to 2019 were reported to have resulted in a crash. The system has not yet been formally certified for combat.
In addition, Moscow continues to support the SSC-8 ground-launched, intermediate-range, nuclear-capable cruise missile programme, according to the DIA.
Will Russia use nuclear weapons?
Russian nuclear doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons under a launch-on-warning (LOW) structure, permissible when under imminent threat from ballistic missiles or other weapons of mass destruction, or, potentially, massed use of conventional strikes that could form an existential threat to the integrity of the state.
In this scenario, Russia would seek conduct a complete nuclear strike, not just launch, before a real or perceived inbound threat hit its target.
This subjective determination of what could be considered an existential threat has seen Putin make numerous threats on the use of nuclear weapons in the ongoing war in Ukraine, although this is generally considered to be for domestic media consumption rather than any shift in doctrine.
Despite the Ukraine war, the Russian state is not under any existential threat, although separating the Putin regime from the integrity of the country itself will be a notable factor to consider. One cause for concern emerged in 2022 when Putin intimated that Russia would use nuclear weapons in the event of threats to the integrity of territory taken, and subsequently annexed, in Ukraine.
In terms of expenditure, Russia has embarked on a decade-long renewal of its nuclear triad, spending around $8.6bn in 2021 alone to upgrade the capacity of its ICBM, SLBM, and heavy bomber forces.
