Species Distribution Modelling

We present the first photographic record of a mainland clouded leopard Neofelis nebulosa predating on a Bengal slow loris Nycticebus bengalensis in Dehing Patkai National Park, Assam, India. This finding, made through camera trapping, contributes to our understanding of predatory behavior and diet, highlighting the significance of conservation efforts for both species. The mainland clouded leopard, a medium-sized felid in the family Pantherinae, is categorized as 'Vulnerable' by the IUCN and listed under CITES Appendix I, reflecting threats from poaching and illegal trade (Hearn et al., 2013; Gray et al., 2021). Due to their elusive nature, it becomes difficult to ascertain the preferred prey species of clouded leopards (Nowell & Jackson, 1996). During a camera trapping study to assess the population of clouded leopards in its distribution range in India, a clouded leopard was photo captured carrying a Bengal slow loris (Nycticebus bengalensis) held by its nape on a broad forest trail (20:58 hrs; December 07, 2024; 164 m asl) (Figure 1). Earlier, its congener, the Greater slow loris (Nycticebus coucang), was recorded as a prey species of the clouded leopard by Grassman Jr. et al. (2005) based on scat analysis in Thailand, which was erroneously cited by another study (Rasphone et al., 2022) as Bengal slow loris. The habitat comprised a tropical wet evergreen forest characterized by the dominance of tree species including Dipterocarpus retusus, Mesua ferrea, and Dysoxylum gotadhora, with an approximate canopy cover of 60%. The location is 1.1 km from the nearest tea garden (Tarajan Tea Garden) and 2.5 km from the closest human habitation. In this report, we provide the first photographic evidence of a Bengal slow loris being preyed upon by a mainland clouded leopard, confirming it as a prey species for this felid. The Bengal slow loris is the only strepsirrhine primate in northeast India and is categorized as 'Endangered' by the IUCN (Nekaris et al., 2020). It exhibits distinct foraging behavior characterized by the repeated use of the same foraging routes and relatively slow locomotion. Among all the species of Nycticebus, the Bengal slow loris is the most specialized exudativore, dedicating approximately 86.5% of its total feeding time to consuming plant exudates in arboreal habitats (Swapna et al., 2010). Considering the Bengal slow loris' weight ranges from 850 to 2100 g (Nekaris et al., 2010), and it is arboreal and nocturnal, it is likely that clouded leopards in this area may target this species as relatively easy to hunt prey. The available literature highlights the diverse range of prey species preferred by clouded leopards, including small and medium sized ungulates, primates, porcupines, pangolins, birds, rodents, and even domestic animals (Davies

The papers presented in this special issue cover a wide range of topics including the impact of climate change on Indian biodiversity through modelling approaches, the resilience of ecosystems to climate-induced shifts, and the role of remote sensing in monitoring forest dynamics. This body of research focuses on various ecological systems, highlighting the consequences of climate change and providing actionable insights for conservation policy and practice. By addressing data gaps, enhancing model precision, and integrating technological advancements like GIS and Earth Observation systems, this research supports the ongoing efforts to conserve biodiversity in fragile ecosystems, such as the Himalaya. Furthermore, studies synthesising and collecting data on India's biodiversity help in understanding patterns of biodiversity and their biotic and abiotic drivers in the country's varied landscapes, which offer valuable perspectives on conservation and sustainable development strategies. By highlighting these diverse research efforts, this special issue seeks to advance our understanding of climate change impacts on biodiversity and foster the development of resilient ecosystems in alignment with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, particularly Goal 13 (Climate Action) and Goal 15 (Life on Land).

Resumen.-La serpiente coral Micrurus distans es una especie endémica de México, es principalmente de hábitos terrestres y se sabe poco sobre su dieta específica. Reportamos una observación de ofiofagía en M. distans sobre una Leptodeira septentrionalis y un posible comportamiento arbóreo de la especie. También comentamos sobre la distribución de L. septentrionalis y argumentamos a favor de su inclusión en las listas herpetofaunales de Sinaloa, a pesar de haber sido registrada en años anteriores y ser excluida en un último listado reciente. Además, verificamos la presencia de la especie en el municipio de Cosalá a partir de registros de ciencia ciudadana. Finalmente, concluimos que estas observaciones robustecen la idea de que M. distans es una serpiente depredadora oportunista de otras serpientes y adaptable a las circunstancias del medio.

To ensure the protection of rare and endangered species, it is essential to assess their habitats carefully to develop effective conservation plans. The globally vulnerable and nationally endangered Great Hornbill (Buceros bicornis), with an estimated population of only 80-150 individuals in Nepal, is a critical conservation priority. We employed an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, analyzing 12 environmental variables, to map the Great Hornbill's current and future suitable habitats across Nepal. The ensemble model performed with high accuracy (Area Under Curve (AUC) = 0.994; True Skill Statistic (TSS) = 0.964), identifying the minimum temperature of the coldest month, percentage tree cover, and mean diurnal temperature range as the most important predictors of Great Hornbill distribution. The Great Hornbill was predicted to have the highest habitat suitability on west-to-northwest-facing slopes, in areas with high tree cover (>20 %), along forest-grassland ecotones, and at moderate distances from water and human settlements. We estimated a current suitable habitat extent of 5433.82 km² (about 3.7 % of Nepal's land area), of which 85.02 % lies within existing protected areas (PAs). Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area is projected to increase to a range of 20,772-27,913 km² by 2050, expanding further to 28,822-43,095 km² by 2070. However, only 14-20 % of this expanded future habitat would fall within the current PA network, indicating a significant expansion of habitat outside of the PA network. This study provides the first rangewide habitat assessment for the Great Hornbill in Nepal, identifying key areas for habitat protection and restoration to safeguard this species.

The masked palm civet Paguma larvata is a small carnivore within the civet family Viverridae, currently listed as Least Concern on The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Across its global range the masked palm civet uses a range of habitats in tropical and subtropical regions, from lowlands to highlands, but its exact ecological requirements and the use of modified habitat remains unclear. We analysed 49 (Balanced Model) and 72 (Spatial Filtering Model) location records of the masked palm civet from Borneo to predict habitat suitability. The resulting model predicted the interior and high elevation areas of Borneo to be suitable habitat, while the coastal and other low-lying areas, such as the extensive peat swamp forests in Central Kalimantan, were predicted to be unsuitable. Greater survey effort in South, Central and West Kalimantan and in Brunei is necessary to obtain more records to improve current models and understanding. The species is probably widespread in Borneo and its...

Banded linsang Prionodon linsang is restricted to Sundaic South-east Asia and inhabits a wide altitudinal range. It occurs widely in Borneo, including all political units except perhaps South Kalimantan, with many recent records. It has never been studied in the field. Usually, it is recorded only once or a few times on any given cameratrap or spotlighting survey within its range. Only rarely is it among the most commonly found small carnivores. It probably occurs at lower densities than do many small carnivores and conventional survey methods are probably suboptimal at finding it. Its popular reputation for rarity and thus conservation priority has no compelling foundation and seems unlikely to be valid. It is not known or likely to be targeted by human hunters and it has been suggested to be associated with edge and degraded areas. Seventy spatially precise records were used to model its distribution. Habitat reclassification scores for use in the model showed wide variation acros...

La especie Pleurozia paradoxa es una hepática de hábitat generalmente paramuno que se encuentra en estado vulnerable según el libro rojo de briófitas de Colombia debido a su poca presencia y su minúscula área de ocupación en el país. Mediante la aplicación de modelos de distribución de especies podemos estimar áreas de idoneidad que dan cuenta de la presencia probable de una especie. En este caso se usó un algoritmo de aprendizaje de máquinas denominado máxima entropía y el software Maxent, con el fin de obtener mapas de distribución potencial. Se emplearon varios registros de presencia y distintos juegos de variables climáticas para el modelamiento, además de un umbral de maximización de la especificidad y sensibilidad en el mapeo. Como resultado, la distribución potencial de P. paradoxa en Colombia se concentró en los departamentos del Cauca, Huila y Nariño a lo largo de la cordillera Central, extendiéndose levemente hacia el Valle del Cauca y Tolima, y en marcada relación con la ...

This study was conducted to evaluate the factors contributing to the spatial distribution of European hazelnut (Corylus avellane L.) in Bhutan and determine the suitable areas for cultivation of the crop in the near future (2040-2060) and distant future (2060-2080) under different climate scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)  2.6 and RCP 4.5 in Bhutan. The environmental layers were obtained from WorldClim and processed in ArcGIS and R software prior to running the model in MaxENT. The multicollinearity test showed six bioclimatic factors and three topographical factors contributing to the distribution of European hazelnut in Bhutan. The findings indicated that approximately 10,744.8 sq. km is potential for hazelnut crop cultivation in Bhutan, with Wangduephodrang District harboring the highest area of 1,227.9 sq. km (11.4%) and Gasa district the least at 130 sq. km. The primary factors affecting climate suitability of European hazelnut were elevation, contributing...

Generating tree-specific crop maps within heterogeneous landscapes requires imagery of fine spatial and temporal resolutions to discriminate among the rapid transitions in tree phenological and spectral features. The availability of freely accessible satellite data of relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions offers an unprecedented opportunity for wide-area land use and land cover (LULC) mapping, including tree crop (e.g., mango; Mangifera indica L.) detection. We evaluated the utility of combining Sentinel-1 (S1) and Sentinel-2 (S2) derived variables (n = 81) for mapping mango orchard occurrence in Zimbabwe using machine learning classifiers, i.e., support vector machine and random forest. Field data were collected on mango orchards and other LULC classes. Fewer variables were selected from ‘All’ combined S1 and S2 variables using three commonly utilized variable selection methods, i.e., relief filter, guided regularized random forest, and variance inflation factor. Several...

Central to the development of an inventory of marine life and improved conceptual understanding of the mechanisms that dynamically shape species distribution patterns is the implementation of strategies aimed at enhancing assimilation and access to existing biogeographical information. Using the Internet as a medium, the Gulf of Maine Biogeographic Information System (GMBIS) project provides a framework and a set of reusable tools for the integration, visualization, analysis and dissemination of diverse types of biogeographical and oceanographic information. End-to-end viability of this approach is demonstrated in the context of a series of scientific storylines and a pilot application for the Gulf of Maine (GoM), a well-studied ecosystem that has been subject to large-scale perturbation due to overfishing. Databases at the core of the information system include those of the DFO Bedford Institution of Oceanography and Atlantic Reference Center, which are the product of multidisciplinary research efforts over the last several decades. Development of GMBIS may serve not only as a model for OBIS, but it may also provide a tool supporting new international and Canadian directives for integrated marine resource management. This paper summarizes the status of the GMBIS project, currently in its final phase, and outlines possible future directions in information system development for the CoML.

A biological invasion is a form of biological pollution that is most likely more terrible than chemical pollution. Xanthium spinosum is one of the most invasive alien plant species. However, its abundance and impacts on invaded plant communities have not yet thoroughly studied. This study aimed to investigate the abundance and impacts of X. spinosum on invaded plant communities in the North Shewa Zone, Ethiopia. The study applied the quadrat method, sampling 80 main plots within 1 m 2 . Differences in mean cover-abundances of X. spinosum across various land types were compared using one-way-ANOVA followed by Tukey's Honestly Significant Difference (HSD) Test. The results showed that roadsides and flooded areas exhibited the maximum mean cover-abundance of X. spinosum compared to farmland and rangeland. The number of plant species recorded was 106 in the control areas, compared to only 73 in the invaded areas. Hence, the number of plant species decreased by 31.13% in the infested area compared to the control. Thus, X. spinosum was among the factors contributing to the reduction of plant diversity, affecting the sustainability of biodiversity in the study areas. Therefore, implementing management measures against the spread of X. spinosum is to address the ongoing threat to biodiversity.

Native turfgrasses and regionally adapted plants are economically valuable and enrich genetic reserves. Habitat suitability modeling of economically important species is a powerful tool to assist landscape managers. The economic aspect of these species is due to animal feed as forage and landscape design as turf, the prevention of erosion, and low water requirements. Species occurrence data were divided into training sets (75% of total occurrence records) for model calibration and test sets (25% of total occurrence records) for model evaluation. The mean AUC values of the training data for L. perenne and L. rigidum were 0.94 and 0.84, respectively, indicating that the model performed better than random and had very good and good accuracy. The habitat suitability of L. perenne was mainly influenced by annual average precipitation, elevation, sand, the distance of the river, and salinity. The potential distribution of L. rigidum was more affected by land use, sand, annual average precipitation, and pH. L. rigidum has a more extensive range of suitability areas in comparison with L. perenne. Based on the results, it can be concluded that L. rigidum has more tolerance in zones where water is less abundant or unevenly distributed and where annual precipitation is low.

Context
Marine restoration is increasingly recognized as a key activity to regenerate ecosystem integrity, safeguard biodiversity, and enable ocean sustainability. Global policies such as the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework include area-based targets to improve ecosystem integrity and connectivity. Achieving these targets requires scaling up restoration in ecologically and socially meaningful ways.

Objectives
The objective was to establish a consistent language and framework for seascape restoration practitioners that complements existing marine restoration guidelines and can help to achieve cross-scale restoration targets.

Methods
We proposed that the integration of the 5Cs of seascape ecology—Context, Configuration, Connectivity, Consideration of scale, and Culture— can offer a valuable framework for advancing marine restoration practice and policy. We synthesized existing ecological and social science evidence to demonstrate how the 5Cs framework can be applied to seascape restoration efforts.

Results
We established a consistent language and framework for marine restoration practitioners and recommended four key operational pathways: (1) focusing on the recovery of interconnected habitats across the land–sea interface; (2) integrating the 5Cs from site selection through to monitoring; (3) representing social, historical, cultural, and ecological variables when assessing site suitability; and (4) fostering transdisciplinary collaborations to support integrative, multifaceted projects.

Conclusions
Integrating landscape ecology concepts and methods into coastal restoration will enable the effective scaling up of regenerative actions. Applying the 5Cs can help achieve global restoration targets through more strategic, inclusive, and effective marine restoration across coastal seascapes.

Inferring the distribution and abundance of a species from field records must deal with false‐negative and false‐positive errors. False‐negative errors occur if a species present goes undetected, while false‐positive errors are typically a consequence of species misidentification. False‐positive observations in studies of rare species may cause an overestimation of the distribution or abundance of the species and distort trend indices. We illustrate this issue with the monitoring of the Eurasian lynx in the Alps. We developed a three‐level classification of field records according to their reliability as inferred from whether they were validated or not. The first category (C1) represents ‘hard fact’ data (e.g. dead lynx); the second category (C2) includes confirmed data (e.g. tracks verified by an expert); and the third category (C3) are unconfirmed data (e.g. any kind of direct visual observation). For lynx, which is a comparatively well‐known species in the Alps, we use site‐occup...

The Sunda stink-badger Mydaus javanensis is a small carnivore inhabiting the South-east Asian islands of Java, Sumatra, Borneo and Natuna Islands. It occurs in a wide variety of vegetation types and is presently listed by The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species as Least Concern. We analysed 15 (Balanced Model) or 77 (Spatial Filtering Model) location records to predict habitat suitability across Borneo. The analysis suggests that most of the suitable habitat is located in Sabah, northeast Sarawak and North Kalimantan. In addition, this species is also recorded, mostly historically, patchily in west Sarawak, and West, Central, South and East Kalimantan. Although this species appears to be disturbance-tolerant and is frequently observed in village areas, some conservation action – such as limiting large-scale forest conversion to oil palm plantations – is warranted because most lowland habitat is unprotected. Further research in central and southern Borneo needs to focus on showing if...

Banded linsang Prionodon linsang is restricted to Sundaic South-east Asia and inhabits a wide altitudinal range. It occurs widely in Borneo, including all political units except perhaps South Kalimantan, with many recent records. It has never been studied in the field. Usually, it is recorded only once or a few times on any given cameratrap or spotlighting survey within its range. Only rarely is it among the most commonly found small carnivores. It probably occurs at lower densities than do many small carnivores and conventional survey methods are probably suboptimal at finding it. Its popular reputation for rarity and thus conservation priority has no compelling foundation and seems unlikely to be valid. It is not known or likely to be targeted by human hunters and it has been suggested to be associated with edge and degraded areas. Seventy spatially precise records were used to model its distribution. Habitat reclassification scores for use in the model showed wide variation acros...

Collared mongoose Herpestes semitorquatus is known to inhabit Borneo, Sumatra and possibly the Philippines. It occurs widely in Borneo, possibly with the exception of South Kalimantan. It is very likely to occur in Brunei, although no explicit records have been traced. The pelage is typically brown or reddish-brown, with a few strongly reddish-orange individuals recorded in Sabah. It has never been studied in the field, so information on its ecology is limited. We used MaxEnt niche distribution modelling to predict the current distribution of collared mongoose in Borneo. We collected a total of 117 occurrence records from all regions, except Brunei and South Kalimantan. To reduce possible negative effects of uneven search-effort, 27 records were used in the Balanced Model and 77 in the Spatial Filtering Model to map habitat suitability. Our habitat suitability index model predicted that a large proportion of Borneo, mostly the lowland and upland forests in the interior encompassing ...

The project investigates where in Austria wolves (Canis lupus) could find suitable habitats, particularly within protected areas, using modern species distribution modeling (SDM) methods. The aim is to assess the potential of conservation areas for supporting wolf populations and to inform nature conservation planning in the context of biodiversity and large predator recovery.

We studied the ecology, distribution, and phylogeography of Tephroseris balbisiana, a rare plant whose range is centered to the South-Western Alps. Our aim was to assess the extent of intraspecific variability within the nominal species and the conservation status of isolated populations. We studied genetic diversity across the whole species range. We analyzed leaf traits, which are distinctive morphological characters within the Tephroseris genus. A clear pattern of genetic variation was found among populations of T. balbisiana, which clustered according to their geographic position. On the contrary, there was a strong overlap in the morphological space of individuals across the species' range, with few peripheral populations diverging in their leaf morphology. Studying habitat suitability by means of species distribution models, we observed that T. balbisiana range is primarily explained by solar radiation and precipitation seasonality. Environmental requirements could explain the genetic and morphological uniformity of T. balbisiana in its core distribution area and justify genetic, morphological, and ecological divergences found among the isolated populations of the Apennines. Our findings emphasize the need to account for the whole diversity of a species, comprising peripheral populations, in order to better estimate its status and to prioritize areas for its conservation.

SummaryAustropuccinia psidii is a biotrophic rust fungus that affects species from the Myrtaceae family. In Mexico, Myrtaceae is widely distributed in temperate, tropical and semi‐arid ecosystems, and includes 20 genera and 192 endemic and exotic species. Austropuccinia psidii has been present in Mexico for the last four decades; however, little is known about the distribution of this rust or the vulnerability of native and exotic Myrtaceae to infection. In this study, we used global occurrence records for the pandemic biotype of myrtle rust to model its current and future suitable habitat using a species distribution model, Maxent. We identified regions that are highly suitable for myrtle rust establishment, now and in the future (2050). Additionally, we identified the Myrtaceae species known to be susceptible to rust infection and that are currently distributed in areas with high rust habitat suitability. Thirty‐six susceptible plant species and 142 untested species are distribute...

Marine benthic ecosystems are difficult to monitor and assess, which is in contrast to modern ecosystem-based management requiring detailed information at all important ecological and anthropogenic impact levels. Ecosystem management needs to ensure a sustainable exploitation of marine resources as well as the protection of sensitive habitats, taking account of potential multiple-use conflicts and impacts over large spatial scales. The urgent need for large-scale spatial data on benthic species and communities resulted in an increasing application of distribution modelling (DM). The use of DM techniques enables to employ full spatial coverage data of environmental variables to predict benthic spatial distribution patterns. Especially, statistical DMs have opened new possibilities for ecosystem management applications, since they are straightforward and the outputs are easy to interpret and communicate. Mechanistic modelling techniques, targeting the fundamental niche of species, and ...

Our study evaluates the global risk of Aeolesthes sarta establishment using mechanistic and correlational niche models. The pest, known to affect various hardwood trees, poses a threat to international trade due to its quarantine status. The CLIMEX model, based on species-specific physiological thresholds, and MaxEnt model, using species occurrences and climatic data, project its potential distribution. Both models align well with the current distribution, predicting broader ranges in the central and southern hemispheres, excluding extreme northern regions. Future climate changes may expand its range, particularly in Europe and North America, where its host species are present. Temperature and precipitation are key factors influencing its distribution. These models offer valuable insights for policymakers and trade negotiators to make science-based decisions on pest management and trade agreements, aiding in monitoring potential pest introductions globally.

Aim To assess whether the water availability measures commonly used in species distribution models might be misleading because they do not account for the hydrological effects of changes in vegetation structure and functioning. Methods We compared different methods for estimating water availability in species distribution models with the soil water content predicted by a process-based ecosystem model. The latter also accounted for the hydrological effects of dynamic changes in vegetation structure and functioning, including potential physiological effects of increasing CO 2 . All proxies showed similar patterns of water availability across Europe for current climate, but when projected into the future, the changes in the simpler water availability measures showed no correlation with those projected by the more complex ecosystem model, even if CO 2 effects were switched off. Main conclusions Results from species distribution modelling studies concerning future changes in species ranges and biodiversity should be interpreted with caution, and more process-based representations of the water balance of terrestrial ecosystems should be considered within these models.

Species distribution models (SDMs) assume equilibrium between species' distribution and the environment. However, this assumption can be violated under restricted dispersal and spatially autocorrelated environmental conditions. Here we used a model to simulate species' ranges expansion under two non-equilibrium scenarios, evaluating the performance of SDM coupled with spatial eigenvector mapping. The highest fit is for the models that include space, although the relative importance of spatial variables during the range expansion differs in the two scenarios. Incorporating space to the models was important only under colonization-lag non-equilibrium, under the expected scenario. Thus, mechanisms that generate range cohesion and determine species' distribution under climate changes can be captured by spatial modelling, with advantages compared with other techniques and in line with recent claims that SDMs have to account for more complex dynamic scenarios.

An ecological biogeographical perspective provides an understanding of the factors that shape the geographical distribution of organisms, their biodiversity and ecological speciation. Focusing on members of the lichen genusSolenopsora, which are strongly linked to a Mediterranean-type climate, we aimed to depict their environmental niches in the Apennine Peninsula. This area represents their ecological optima, as well as the biogeographical centre of distribution. On the basis of occurrences ofSolenopsoracongeners, we identified the key ecological factors that shape their environmental niches. Applying an ensemble approach, which merges the results of Random Forest, GLM and MaxEnt algorithms, suitability maps were developed. These are mainly influenced by geological substratum, temperature and precipitation. Occurrence ofSolenopsorataxa seems to be mainly governed by low variability in diurnal temperature and tolerance to dryness, with precipitation in the range of 0–20 mm in the dr...

Protected areas play a crucial role in mitigating the impact of climate change on biodiversity. However, traditional methods of expanding protected areas have focused solely on increasing area size to meet the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) objectives, without considering the effects of climate change. This study aims to address the limitations of previous research by analyzing the impact of climate change on biodiversity. It prioritizes protected areas by examining changes in key habitats for 10 South Korean mammal species across three periods: A (2011-2040), B (2041-2070), and C (2071-2100). Two scenarios were used: SSP1-2.6 (active mitigation) and SSP3-7.0 (passive mitigation). In the SSP1-2.6 scenario, key habitat areas decreased in period B but gradually recovered in period C, while in SSP3-7.0, habitat areas slightly increased in period B but decreased again in period C. The findings suggest that climate change mitigation policies significantly affect habitat area changes. Based on this analysis, the study recommends prioritizing southern Gangwon-do and northern Gyeongsangbuk-do as first-priority protected areas, with Demilitarized Zone (DMZ)-adjacent regions, eastern Gyeonggi-do, and western Gangwon-do as second priorities for future conservation efforts. It is expected that the proposed key habitat areas will be a useful reference for future mid-to long-term expansion of protected areas.

The niche has been central to ecology for most of the discipline's history, yet there have been few attempts by philosophers to work out the ontology of the niche. A challenge is that there is a plurality of seemingly inconsistent definitions of the niche in ecology. This paper characterizes the population-level ecological niche by distinguishing among niche concepts, niche models, and the niche as a phenomenon. I argue that "niche concepts" should be interpreted as theoretical frameworks or modelling strategies. I also argue that there is a unified niche phenomenon underlying the seemingly heterogeneous models and definitions. The plurality of niche concepts in ecology should be seen as an expected consequence of the nature of modelling complex systems.

When SDM are based on static limiting conditions (scenopoetic variables) that may control species'' ecophysiology and drive its occurrence at large scale, these models can be interpreted as describing the Grinnellian niche. When SDM are based on biotic interactions and resource consumer dynamics (bionomic variables) that determine species abundance and reproductive rates operating at more detailed scales, they can be interpreted as describing the Eltonian niche (Soberon

Aim. Species distribution models based on breeding occurrence data allow identifying 27 both environmental drivers and geographic areas potentially relevant for breeding. 28 However, the interpretation of model predictions in terms of reproductive performance 29 should be further investigated, as this information is crucial for conservation planning. 30 We evaluated the strengths and weaknesses of a correlative modelling approach based 31 on breeding occurrence data (presence-absence) against another approach based on vital 32 rates' data (breeding success) for gaining insights on species persistence in the case of 33 Great Bustards (Otis tarda). 34 Methods. Breeding occurrence and breeding success were independently modelled 36 using generalized linear models and multi-model inference analyses. Sensitivities to the 37 way in which the population parameter (breeding success) was defined were explored 38 by building five versions of the dependent variable. We evaluated differences in model 39 performance and identified areas of congruence for breeding occurrence and breeding 40 success. 41 Results. The agreement between the spatial predictions achieved by breeding 42 occurrence and breeding success models differed substantially across databases, with 43 the largest differences in occupied breeding areas. The deviance explained by the 44 breeding occurrence model was 64.98% and ranged from 7.83% to 62.27% for the 45 breeding success models. Model performance was higher for models calibrated within 46 potential than within occupied breeding areas. 47 Main conclusions. The combination of data on both breeding occurrence and breeding 48 success into a species distribution modelling framework showed the limitations of 49 breeding occurrence models for inferring reproductive parameters. The definition of the 50 Page 2 of 84 Diversity and Distributions Diversity and Distributions population parameter as dependent variable was a key factor that strongly affected the 51 inference of vital rates' models. The approach allowed for discriminating between areas 52 and landscape attributes necessary for the long-term species persistence from others that 53 may be relevant, but not so much for reproductive performance. 54

The anisotropic structure of climatic space may cause significant (and to a large extent unappreciated) nonevolutionary niche shifts. This can be seen mostly in the context of spatial transferability of ecological niche models. We explore this effect using a virtual species in the United States. We created a simple virtual species by postulating its fundamental niche as an ellipse in a two-dimensional realistic climatic space. The climatic combinations defined by the ellipse were projected in the geography of the United States and 2 regions of equal area were selected. The structure of niche in the 2 areas is compared. It is shown that the 2 regions have differently positioned subsets of the environmental space, which creates "shifts" in the realized niches despite the fact that no evolution and no biotic interactions are present. The most parsimonious hypothesis when ecological niche modeling reveals shifts in the realized niche is that environmental space is heterogeneous. Without considering differences in the structure of environmental space no speculation about niche evolution or the role of competitors should be attempted.

Species tend to shift their suitable habitat both altitudinally and latitudinally under climate change. Range shift in plants brings about habitat contraction at rear edges, forcing leading edge populations to explore newly available suitable habitats. In order to detect these scenarios, modeling of the future geographical distribution of the species is widely used. Vachellia negrii (Pic.-Serm.) Kyal. & Boatwr. is endemic to Ethiopia and was assessed as vulnerable due to changes to its habitat by anthropogenic impacts. It occurs in upland wooded grassland from 2000-3100 m.a.s.l. The main objective of this study is to model the distribution of Vachellia negrii in Ethiopia by using Maxent under climate change. Nineteen bioclimatic variables were downloaded from an open source. Furthermore, topographic position index (tpi), solar radiation index (sri) and elevation were used. Two representative concentration pathways were selected (RCP 4.5 and RC P8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070 using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM 5). A correlation analysis of the bioclimatic variables has resulted in the retention of 10 bioclimatic variables for modeling. Fortyeight occurrence points were collected from herbarium specimens. The area under curve (AUC) is 0.94, indicating a high-performance level of the model. The distribution of the species is affected by elevation (26.4%), precipitation of the driest month (Bio 14, 21.7%), solar radiation (12.9%) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15, 12.2%). Whereas the RCP 8.5 has resulted in decrease of suitable areas of the species from the current 4,314,153.94 ha (3.80%) to 4,059,150.90 ha (3.58%) in 2050, this area will shrink to 3,555,828.71 ha in 2070 under the same scenario. As climate change severely affects the environment, highly suitable areas for the growth of the study subject will decrease by 758,325 ha. The study's results shows that this vulnerable, endemic species is facing habitat contraction and requires interventions to ensure its long-term persistence.

would drop by more than 25% during the next few decades. Surprisingly, the future potential distribution area of C. cornigera (SSP 126 scenario) for 2061 and 2080 showed that there is increase in the suitable habitats area. It showed high habitat suitability along the Mediterranean coastal strip of Spain,

AimAlthough species distribution models (SDMs) traditionally link species occurrences to free‐air temperature data at coarse spatio‐temporal resolution, the distribution of organisms might instead be driven by temperatures more proximal to their habitats. Several solutions are currently available, such as downscaled or interpolated coarse‐grained free‐air temperatures, satellite‐measured land surface temperatures (LST) or in‐situ‐measured soil temperatures. A comprehensive comparison of temperature data sources and their performance in SDMs is, however, currently lacking.LocationNorthern Scandinavia.Time period1970–2017.Major taxa studiedHigher plants.MethodsWe evaluated different sources of temperature data (WorldClim, CHELSA, MODIS, E‐OBS, topoclimate and soil temperature from miniature data loggers), differing in spatial resolution (from 1″ to 0.1°), measurement focus (free‐air, ground‐surface or soil temperature) and temporal extent (year‐long versus long‐term averages), and use...

The Hindu Kush Himalayan region has seen a faster pace of anthropogenic climate warming than the global average during the last 50 years. Since the 1980s this region has been experiencing intense climatic events, notably elevation-dependent warming. Given its unique evolutionary background, rich variety of species, and significant endemism, it is crucial to comprehend the effects of climate change on species distributions in this area. Of particular interest are the fungi, which have been the subject of much fewer studies on how they will respond to climate change, despite the fact that they may have a significant role in the functioning and stability of ecosystems. We therefore selected Ophiocordyceps sinensis an alpine fungus species for predicting the effects of climate change on its distribution in Hindu Kush Himalaya. Regarded as one of the most expensive natural resources used in oriental medicine, Ophiocordyceps and its surrounding habitats are under threat from various ecological and anthropogenic factors. We used species distribution modeling software Maxent 3.3.4 and a set of uncorrelated climatic (temperature and precipitation) and topographical (elevation, slope, and aspect) variables at a spatial resolution of 2.5 arc minutes to model the suitable habitats. To predict the future distribution of O. sinensis we used future climate data from BCCCSM2-HR global circulation model for three emission scenarios of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585). Maxent model predicted current and future habitats with high accuracy. Current potential distribution map of O. sinensis shows that high suitability areas occur in India, China, Nepal, and Bhutan. Prediction maps under all three scenarios showed a large reduction in suitable habitats as compared to current climatic conditions. Analysis of range change reveals that species exhibit both range expansion and range contraction under climate change scenarios. Range contraction is noticeably more than range expansion, causing an overall reduction in the suitable habitats occupied by O. sinensis. "Centroid Range Shift" analysis revealed potential suitable habitats will shift to the southwest direction under all future scenarios with almost overlapping centroids.

Forest ecosystems are rich in biodiversity and provide valuable ecosystem services, but are declining worldwide. Malus niedzwetzkyana, an Endangered wild relative of domesticated apples, is an important component of the walnut-fruit forests of Central Asia. Its iconic pink blossom and genetic properties give it special cultural and scientific significance, but livestock grazing and firewood collection threaten its survival. The conservation of the species and its native forest ecosystem is critical and urgent. This study provides information on the ecology and population of M. niedzwetzkyana and the threats affecting its habitat, improving our understanding of its distribution and proposing measures to reduce threats. We collected ecological data and assessed population structure and threats at four forest sites in southern Kyrgyzstan. We mapped  individuals, creating the largest known dataset for this species. We developed species distribution models for M. niedzwetzkyana to identify climatically suitable regions and potential areas for restoration. Sary-Chelek Biosphere Reserve contained the largest expanse of pristine forest and the most stable M. niedzwetzkyana population, followed by Kara-Alma Forestry Unit. Forests in the Gava Forestry Unit and Dashman Reserve were most extensively damaged by humans and livestock. The wild apple's favoured habitat was south-west facing slopes with a gradient , °and a relatively open canopy. Overall, the study population was vulnerable to extinction with limited regeneration potential. We recommend short-term population enhancement through planting projects and increased protection of individuals in pristine sites. Community-based conservation initiatives should be prioritized in extensively damaged sites, and larger-scale reforestation of these forests needs to be considered.

AimAlthough species distribution models (SDMs) traditionally link species occurrences to free‐air temperature data at coarse spatio‐temporal resolution, the distribution of organisms might instead be driven by temperatures more proximal to their habitats. Several solutions are currently available, such as downscaled or interpolated coarse‐grained free‐air temperatures, satellite‐measured land surface temperatures (LST) or in‐situ‐measured soil temperatures. A comprehensive comparison of temperature data sources and their performance in SDMs is, however, currently lacking.LocationNorthern Scandinavia.Time period1970–2017.Major taxa studiedHigher plants.MethodsWe evaluated different sources of temperature data (WorldClim, CHELSA, MODIS, E‐OBS, topoclimate and soil temperature from miniature data loggers), differing in spatial resolution (from 1″ to 0.1°), measurement focus (free‐air, ground‐surface or soil temperature) and temporal extent (year‐long versus long‐term averages), and use...

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L'archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d'enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

AimAlthough species distribution models (SDMs) traditionally link species occurrences to free‐air temperature data at coarse spatio‐temporal resolution, the distribution of organisms might instead be driven by temperatures more proximal to their habitats. Several solutions are currently available, such as downscaled or interpolated coarse‐grained free‐air temperatures, satellite‐measured land surface temperatures (LST) or in‐situ‐measured soil temperatures. A comprehensive comparison of temperature data sources and their performance in SDMs is, however, currently lacking.LocationNorthern Scandinavia.Time period1970–2017.Major taxa studiedHigher plants.MethodsWe evaluated different sources of temperature data (WorldClim, CHELSA, MODIS, E‐OBS, topoclimate and soil temperature from miniature data loggers), differing in spatial resolution (from 1″ to 0.1°), measurement focus (free‐air, ground‐surface or soil temperature) and temporal extent (year‐long versus long‐term averages), and use...

1. Species distribution models (SDMs) are an increasingly popular tool in ecology which, together with a vast wealth of data from citizen science projects, have the potential to dramatically improve our understanding of species behaviour for applications such as conservation and wildlife management. However, many of the best performing models require information regarding survey effort, specifically absence, which is typically lacking in opportunistic datasets. To facilitate the use of such models, pseudo-absences from locations without recorded presence must be assumed. Several studies have suggested that survey effort, and hence likely absence, could be estimated from presence-only data by considering records across "target groups" of species defined according to taxonomy. 2. We performed a probabilistic analysis, computing the conditional probability of recording a species given a particular set of species are also recorded, to test the validity of defining target groups by taxonomic order and to explore other potential groupings. Based on this quantification of recording associations we outline a new method to inform pseudo-absence selection comparing predictive performance, measured the area under curve (AUC) statistic, against the standard method of selection across a series of SDMs. 3. Our findings show some support for target grouping classification based on taxonomy but indicate that an alternative classification using survey method may be more appropriate for informing effort and consequently absence. Across 49 terrestrial mammal species, pseudo-absence selection using our proposed method outperformed that of the standard method showing an improvement in the predictive performance of presenceabsence models for 17 out of 22 with sufficient data to elicit a significant difference. Based on our method we also observed a substantial improvement in the performance of presence-absence models compared to that of presence-only models (MaxEnt) with a higher AUC for all 22 species showing a significant difference between approaches. 4. We conclude that our method produces sensible robust pseudo-absences which either compliment patterns in known presences or, where conflicts occur, are explainable in terms of ecological variables potentially improving our understanding of species behaviour. Furthermore, we suggest that presence-absence models using these pseudo-absences provide a viable alternative to MaxEnt when modelling using presence-only data.

AimClimate change alters the water cycle, potentially affecting the distribution of species. Using an ensemble of species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted changes in distribution of the Asian elephant in South Asia due to increasing climatic variability under warming climate and human pressures.LocationIndia and Nepal.MethodsWe compiled a comprehensive geodatabase of 115 predictor variables, which included climatic, topographic, human pressures and land use, at a resolution of 1 km2, and an extensive database on current distribution of elephants. For variable selection, we first developed 14 candidate models based on different hypotheses on elephant habitat selection. For each candidate model, a series of 240 individual models were evaluated using several metrics. Using three climatic and one land use change datasets for two greenhouse gas scenarios, ensemble SDMs were used to predict future projections.ResultsNine predictor variables were selected for ensemble SDMs. Elephan...

Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary...

Crop wild relatives possess important traits, therefore ex situ and in situ conservation efforts are essential to maintain sufficient options for future crop improvement. Bolivia is a centre of wild relative diversity for several crops, among them potato, which is an important staple worldwide and the principle food crop in this country. Despite their relevance for plant breeding, limited knowledge exists about their in situ conservation status. We used Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and distribution modelling with the software Maxent to better understand geographic patterns of endemic wild potato diversity in Bolivia. In combination with threat layers, we assessed the conservation status of all endemic species, 21 in total. We carried out a complementary reserve selection to prioritize areas for in situ conservation and excluded 25% of the most-threatened collection sites because costs to implement conservation measures at those locations may be too high compared to other areas. At least 71% (15 of 21 species) has a preliminary vulnerable status or worse according to IUCN red list distribution criteria. Our results show that four of these species would require special conservation attention because they have only been observed in < 15 locations and are highly threatened by human accessibility, fires and livestock pressure. Although highest species richness occurs in south-central Bolivia, i.e. in the departments Santa Cruz and Chuquisaca, the first priority area for in situ conservation according to our reserve selection exercise is central Bolivia, Cochabamba, which is less threatened than the potato wild relatives' hotspot in south-central Bolivia. Only seven of the 21 species have been observed in protected areas. To improve coverage of potato wild relatives' distribution by protected areas, we recommend to start inventories in parks and reserves with high modelled diversity. Finally, to improve ex situ conservation, we targeted areas for germplasm collection of species with not any or less than five accessions conserved in genebanks.

1. Despite the wealth of data available from satellite tracking (ST) studies, such data have rarely been used to model species distributions. Using a novel method, we show how to exploit satellite data to analyse whether and how a migratory species responds to fluctuating environmental conditions in its wintering area. This is particularly crucial for establishing comprehensive conservation measures for rare species in areas that are threatened by increasing land use and climate change. 2. We use ST data of Eleonora's falcon Falco eleonorae, a long-distance migratory raptor that winters in Madagascar, and assess the performance of static species distribution models (SDM) as well as multi-temporal models. ST data were derived from seven falcons tracked during three consecutive wintering periods and for a total of 2410 bearings, of which 512 locations were used in SDMs. We employed environmental predictors (climate, topography and land cover) with a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (c. 1 km 2 ) to match rigorously filtered ST data with an accuracy of £1 km. 3. We first created a model with low temporal but high spatial resolution (half-year). To predict suitable habitat for each month of the wintering season, we took advantage of the high temporal resolution inherent in ST data and employed temporally corresponding remote sensing data [Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 10-day composites] together with other variables to create monthly models. 4. We show that ST data are suited to build robust and transferable SDMs despite a low number of tracked individuals. Multi-temporal SMDs further revealed seasonal responses of the study species to changing environmental conditions in its wintering area. 5. Synthesis and applications. We present a transferable approach to predict the potential distribution of organisms as well as their dynamic response to changing environmental conditions. Future conservation management plans could include the prediction of a species' reaction to changing land-use practices or climate change based on the methodology proposed here. This would provide an early warning system for the decline of populations wintering in remote areas that underlie strong climatic fluctuations.

SUMMARYClimate and land-use changes are expected to drive high rates of environmental change and biodiversity loss in Mediterranean ecosystems this century. This paper compares the relative future impacts of land use and climate change on two vulnerable tree species native to Southern California (Juglans californica and Quercus engelmannii) using species distribution models. Under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change&#39;s A1B future scenario, high levels of both projected land use and climate change could drive considerable habitat losses on these two already heavily-impacted tree species. Under scenarios of no dispersal, projected climate change poses a greater habitat loss threat relative to projected land use for both species. Assuming unlimited dispersal, climate-driven habitat gains could offset some of the losses due to both drivers, especially in J. californica which could experience net habitat gains under combined impacts of both climate change and land use. Quer...

The main objective ofthis work was to contribute to the understanding ofthe evolutionary history ofthe rodents of Thailand during the last 3 million years (Late Pliocene-Pleistocene) and to the knowledge of the environmental changes that occurred in that area. Twenty rodents localities were discovered all over the country, from fissure fillings and from caves, and their content was studied. 41 species were identified, 30 Murinae among which two new genera, Ratchaburimys and Prohadromys, and 7 new species, which are described, and 11 Sciuridae, including 6 flying squirrels. Most fossil species could be identified as belonging to extant species still living in Thailand or in adjacent countries, either in Indochina or in Sundaland. Some important changes in species distributions through time could be demonstrated. As we could use only molar characters for the identification of these fossils , we tested the value of our characters in the light of phylogenetic analysis . Using cladistic analysis, we propose therefore several original phylogenetic relationships between these Southeast Asian fossil and extant rodents. The taxonomic knowledge and the changes in community composition and in species distributions which occurred through time allowed us to build up the frame of a biochronological scale that will allow the date Plio-Pleistocene terrestrial deposits in Southeast Asia by using fossil rodents. A variety of quantitative methods have been used, as multivariate statistical analysis, parsimony analysis method and probabilistic similarity index, tojustify on a more rigorous basis our qualitative interpretations. This relative chronology is tentatively calibrated on the availability of a few absolute ages as UraniumlThorium dates from calcite. Important changes in the composition and in the distribution of species pinpoint to the importance of climatic changes during the Plio-Pleistocene in Thailand. Until now, only data relative to the Holocene were available from that country. The fossil rodents show that during the Latest Tertiary, there was a significative amount of grasslands by comparison to the present day, indicating stronger seasonality. Since that time , climate seem to have become wetter with less seasonality and evergreen forests have become progressively more widespread over the country. In Snake Cave, more than 130,000 years ago, during Late Middle Pleistocene times, the climate was wet and cooler than today, and the rodent composition indicate a downwards shift of at least 1,000 meters in vegetational zones. We relate this development of evergreen forests to the radiation of the genus Rattus, whose species become more and more numerous through the Plio-Pleistocene. Also, the climatic history seems in good agreement with some climatic global models which correlate cooling and increasing humidity through Plio-Pleistocene in Southeast Asia to the uplift of Tibet plateau.