The Chinese Threat to American Leadership in Space

By Gabriele Garibaldi

Security Dialogue, July 20, 2004

The Reaganite years saw the introduction of the US space program, halted during Bill Clinton's reign, but reinstated when Donald Rumsfeld was nominated as Secretary of Defense. The zeal with which he relaunched the US space programs - acquiescing to the military and industial military lobbies� requests� for rapidly developing space weapons - � is evidence of a throwing down of the gauntlet to potential �peer competitors� of the United States. Furthermore, this decision conforms to the will expressed by the neo-conservative Bush administration to definitively reaffirm and consolidate the unipolar role of the United States in the twenty-first century and to begin the new millenium with a �New American Century�, an expression belonging to the �Project for the the New American Century�, the think tank that has Rumsfeld as its President.

������������� Such a unipolar-imperial Grand Strategy has to be based on the search for overwhelming power - an instrument of �benevolent� protection of the allies and a deterrent to those who want to defy it: in short, a concrete series of plans aimed at �Full Spectrum Dominance�, meaning worldwide military domination through the ability to project unilaterally into all possible battlefields and thus control the outcome. According to the US Space Command, the USA will be able to establish and perfect this �Full Spectrum Dominance� from Space, giving them the power to choose whom to include and whom to exclude. (See �Mastering the Ultimate High Ground: Next Steps in the Military Uses of Space� - a document released at the beginning of 2003 by the Rand Corporation, a think tank partner of the US Air Force that expresses the will of the industrial military lobbies, which asserts the necessity for the USA to �ensure our continued access to space and deny space to others, if necessary�, an expression adhered to by those present in the strategic plans of the US Space Command, making implicit reference to China).

������������� The Bush administration's withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM), and its decision to dispose of the self-imposed military limitations belonging to the defunct bipolar order, shows the USA's desire to increase the "power gap" between itself and its potential �peer competitors�. Such competitors would, they hope, have to think long and hard before entering into a race against the USA, an action that would involve an enormous diversion of national resources into minimising the considerable gap between itself and the US. The last challenger to a US-initiated arms race was the Soviet Union in response to Reagan's Star Wars program; potential challengers today would no longer choose to follow the Soviet Union's strategy.

������������� The EU and Japan have the economic and technological means to deploy weapons in Space, but they lack both the political will to challenge the USA and the ability to fund the costs of an independent defence policy: although the USA may be aware that the Europeans are not about to emancipate themselves from their traditional alliance-subordination relationship with the USA, already the ESDP (European Security and Defense Policy) and the satellite plan Galileo (the alternative to the American Global Positioning Satellite) have provoked irritation in their main ally.

������������� Russia has the know-how to compete militarily in Space but lacks the financial resources. In 2003 its expenses forecast for space programs was only a tenth of the US$3 billion allocated by China, compared to the US$23 billion that the USA puts into NASA and the myriad space-related programs, including missile defence. But if it had the means, Russia would probably put into effect a space policy aimed at filling the power gap with the USA and attempt to re-establish a multipolar international order.

The rise of China as a space power

Among the potential �peer competitors�, China appears to be most able to mount any sort of challenge to American primacy. Its space program is strongly supported by Chinese leaders who wish to assert and maintain Chinese regional power, as well as attempting to dispute the current unipolar world order. With the technical assistance of Russia and other ex-USSR countries, the new nation is making such significant progress that it is now the focus of US worries.

������������� According to the Pentagon, China is publicly opposing militarization of Space and trying by diplomatic means to prevent or slow down the development by the USA of anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) and missile defence, but in private, however, it is considering that the development of such weaponry may in fact be inevitable if they wish to maintain any pretence to multipolarity in the future, even going to the length of searching abroad for technical knowledge.

������������� For instance, Beijing is developing a new family of modular rockets to send� heavy loads into space, with the aim of being able to put 25 tons into low earth orbit and 14 tons into geostationary orbit by 2007. Beijing has also begun to develop a smaller launch vehicle with a solid propellent, the Kaituozhe (Pioneer, KT or KTZ-1). The KT-1 is the first step towards the development of a series of small rockets that will be needed to launch a new generation of small satellites that are currently undergoing development. China is investing massively in the development of this type of mini-satellite, which could eventually be used offensively against other satellites.

������������� China is also making substantial progress in manned space missions, with the first mission successfully completed on 17 October 2003, and has long-term plans for its own space station and probably a reusable space shuttle. Although the strongest factor behind the Chinese space program is political prestige, the efforts of this Far East superpower to send men into Space will also contribute, indirectly, to the development of the expertise required for future military applications between 2010 and 2020. It is known to US Intelligence Services that China is dedicating considerable resources into lasers for military use, and that by ��using a combination of indigenous capabilities and foreign assistance, China could emerge as a leading producer and exporter of military lasers by 2020�, according to the US Department of Defense .

The Shenzhou 5 and the first taikonaut of Chinese history

On Wednesday, 15 October 2003 China launched the Shenzhou 5 and its first astronaut (taikonaut) into orbit, joining the USA and Russia in the exclusive club of countries that have carried out manned missions into Space. According to American analysts, national prestige and pride are the main motivations of this (very expensive) program, of which China has emphasized the indigenous nature, although it could not have been acheived without Russian assistance. But for the Chinese it is more than simply symbolic: it is a reaction to China's new-found awareness that Space is important for the future of military operations (in relation to the US Revolution in Military Affairs) and is a domain from which China cannot remain excluded.

������������� The Shenzhou (�Divine Vessel�) program was born in 1992 (as part of a program in three steps that, after the launch of the first astronaut, foresees the development of a space station and the completion of a modern Earth-Space transport system) and has grown quickly with the help of Russian technical aid. In 1995 Beijing came to an arrangement with Russian company RKK Energia to train the Chinese astronauts and acquire technical information on their ally's Soyuz space capsule. In short, the present Shenzhou 5 is a greatly improved copy of the Soyuz.

The American perception of the Chinese space program and vice versa

For some analysts the Shenzhou, with the rest of the space program, is intrinsically tied to the Chinese efforts to modernize its own military forces and to catch up to America's space assets. According to Michael Stokes, aerospace analyst at the Department of the Defense, �the Chinese human space flight program is part and parcel of the nation�s broader ambitions in space that have very clear implications for U.S. national security 10 to 20 years in the future�. Stokes declared that China has paid great attention to the strategic role that the space assets have played in the American military actions in the post-Cold War period (from the 1991 Gulf War to the recent 2003 war against Iraq) and commented that he was personally worried� less about China's attempt to catch up with the �human space flight club�(the launch of Shenzhou 5 hadn�t yet occurred) than about its efforts �to develop a robust network of military satellites of its own, while at the same time researching ways to take out the other�s satellites in the event of a conflict�. Evidently the US military think the enemy has the desire to �deny space to others, if necessary�, as expressed many times in the US Space Command documents, in the conclusions of the Space Commission presided over by Donald Rumsfeld (before his nomination to the head of the Pentagon) and finally sealed by the Rand Corporation's �Mastering the Ultimate High Ground�.

������������� China's official reply to America's anxiety over its competitor's desire to abuse Space responds by stating their respect of international law regarding this new territory. In fact, China emphasizes that �certain countries�, i.e. America, are showing their will to realize �space weaponization�, notably after the abrogation of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) and since declaring their will to develop the Theater Missile Defense (TMD). The Chinese authorities, therefore, indirectly admonish the USA in these terms: �China is concerned about certain countries� joint research and development of theater missile defense (TMD) systems with a view to their deployment in the Northeast Asian region. This will lead to the proliferation of advanced missile technology and be detrimental to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region. China resolutely opposes any country which provides Taiwan [a notoriously independent state] with TMD assistance or protection in any form [italics in original text].�

Space, the key to the balance of power in the twenty-first century

As shown, China has the aim to equip itself with the necessary means to look after its own interests and be able to withstand a conflict with the USA. In spite of the (ephemeral) alliance in fighting the Fundamental Islamic terrorism after 9/11, China considers the USA a hegemonic power that limits its development to its own area of influence. China�s ambition, therefore, is to assert itself as the alternative power to America currently in Asia, and to establish with the United States a relationship on equal terms in a multipolar international system.

������������� Concerning their geostrategic plans, China has significant reason to enter into conflict with the United States. In order of increasing importance, these areas of dispute include their increasing influence in Central Asia, their interference in Korean affairs, the Spratly islands and Taiwan.�����������

����������� The strategical significance of the Spratly Islands has caused controversy between the two Super Powers. Situated in the southern China Sea, they fall on the most important trading route in the world - one through which 25% of the world's oil products pass, coming from the Middle East and directed towards Japan and the USA - and are surrounded by potential oil-fields.

������������� But it is with regard to Taiwan that the friction with the USA is strongest, particularly in regard to the political arrogance of the current US administration: the invitation proffered by the US to the Taiwanese Defense Minister, Tang Yian-ming, and his consequent meeting with the American vice-Minister of Defense, Paul Wolfowitz, has greatly irritated Beijing.

������������� The Taiwanese issue is the fulcrum of the American strategy (which, according to Chinese analysts, even foresees the destabilization of the whole area of influence of China in order to stop its rise) and one that will necessitate a battle of wills between China and the USA in the twenty-first century, a trial of strength for which China is being well prepared.

������������� The US experts believe the Shenzhou 5 mission will provide previously unknown information to the Chinese military, commonly known as the People�s Liberation Army (PLA), in relation to a potential conflict with the United States over Taiwan. Thus, it won�t be a purely science-related exercise. It could hardly be otherwise, as the distinction between civil and military Chinese space programs is non-existent. Consequently, the Shenzhou program is also under the supervision of the �PLA�s General Armament Department�. Indeed, the Shenzhou 5 - as was admitted by Chinese officials - �will have a CCD camera attached to the exterior with a ground resolution of 1.6 m, which could be used for military reconnaissance purposes�.

������������� For the already cited Colonel Stokes, the fact that China has sent a man into Space is not worrisome in itself, but rather indicates the technological level now achieved by China in the field of space carriers, as Beijing - worrying over the possibility of losing definitive control over Taiwan - �is developing space-based capabilities that could be used in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait�, aware that �Space assets will play a major role in any future use of force against Taiwan and in preventing foreign intervention in a Taiwan scenario�. The technical progress derived from initiating the Shenzhou 5 operation and subsequent �manned missions� could be used to develop not only ballistic missiles, but also anti-satellite weapons and mini-satellites for espionage. According to USA experts, Beijing will be able to launch small recognition satellites within the next three to five years to control China's periphery and the eastern Pacific Ocean.

������������� With regard to the space program's success - one that has been supported by a strong political will as the presupposition of its geostrategic vision - China, therefore, has the potential to challenge the US supremacy in Space, especially now that it is supported by significantly increasing funds. In March 2002 the Chinese Financial Minister, Xiang Huaicheng, announced an increase in military expenditure for 2002 of 17.5%, ��bringing the publicly reported total to $20 billion� (NASA currently receives $15.5 billion a year, while "Unclassified U.S. military space programs command a further $8.5 billion a year in federal spending.�). Consequently, this makes China the second greatest military spender in the world and the first in Asia. Moreover, the rate of Chinese economic growth has suggested to American analysts that �annual defense spending could increase in real terms three to four fold between now and 2020�.

The Chinese lunar plans and American anxieties

This information has led the USA to seriously examine the Chinese space challenge, and despite the American advantage, they remain nervous about China's next goal on the agenda: the Moon.

������������� According to Robert Walker, former president of the Commission on the future of the American aerospace industry, China is engaged in an aggressive space program focused on a Moon landing, followed by establishing a permanent base within a decade (according to Japanese experts, China will be able to reach the Moon within three to four years) and eventually aiming for Mars. It will be sufficient for it to spend 1% of its GDP over the next few years in order to provide the financing for a significantly competitive space program.

������������� The USA, on the other hand, at least according to Walker, is no longer able to repeat the Moon mission of thirty-five years ago. This inability to compete in a new Moon race is more than an issue of national pride: it also raises serious strategical questions over China's rising potential as a lunar power.������������ China, if it succeeded in its goal, would acquire enormous international prestige. However, most significantly, by establishing permanent bases on the Moon, China would gain the ability to exploit lunar resources and therefore gain important technological advantages over other nations (including nuclear fusion, using the helium 3 isotope), with concrete consequences on Earth's activities.

������������� Walker's conclusion is that the Chinese space program has yet to be taken seriously by American politicians. Nevertheless, it represents a serious challenge to the US leadership in Space. The US must answer such a challenge by developing new technologies (for instance, the nuclear plasma propulsion system) in order to reach the Moon and Mars faster than currently possible, and to travel more frequently and thriftily into Earth's low orbit.

������������� George W. Bush had heard Walker's warning, and in the President's 14 January 2004 speech, he relaunched the US space programs with increased fervour. It is impossible not to link the US's renewed enthusiasm to the current race against China's rapid rise in Space strategy. Three months after the success of the Shenzhou 5, China announced that it would launch the next manned mission in 2005, when the new Shenzhou 6 will transport more than just a single astronaut, and will remain in Space for a longer period of time. In the meantime, in 2004 China will launch ten new satellites into orbit. Asked by Western journalists about the Chinese perception of US space programs - there were already rumours some weeks prior to Bush�s speech that the US intended to establish a permanent base on the Moon -� the Chinese Foreign Minister responded by diplomatic note, congratulating the USA on the success of its Martian rover Spirit, but neglecting to mention the rumoured US aim of establishing a permanent base on the Moon as a starting point for manned missions towards Mars.

������������� But on 14 January, Bush removed all doubt, revealing his �vision for moon and beyond�. It was a speech aimed at formenting the enthusiasm and patriotic pride of the man in the street (who will have to pay US$1 billion - according to the first estimate - to finance the program), by using Star Trek-esque lingo: �Much remains for us to explore and to learn�. After stating that �the desire to explore and understand is part of our character�, Bush disclosed the ambitious plan that will once again take the USA to the Moon by 2020, where they will establish a launch base for manned missions towards Mars and beyond (Bush didn�t announce when the astronauts will come down to Mars, but, according to White House authorities, this in due by 2030).

�Deny Space to others�: the last chance to stop China

As the situation currently stands, it is clear that the expression �to assure our continued access to space and deny the space to others if necessary� - recurrent, with little variations, in the US military plans - is specifically directed towards China. The Pentagon believes that China has the same intention towards the ousting the United States from Space, and considers its polemic declarations about the �rumoured� US plans of space weaponization - expressed in front of the UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space - as the weapon to diplomatically damage and slow down the action of the USA, while actively working in secret towards the same objective. According to Larry Wortzel, director of the Asian Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, the introduction by the Chinese of a draft treaty devised to act against the US's intent to develop space weapons is misleading (��because they�re developing their own space-based weapons...�), having no other purpose than to diplomatically damage the USA and thus delay their Theater Missile Defense plan, while China continues with its own plans. According to Richard Fisher of The Jamestown Foundation, the People's Liberation Army is aware that the �control of space� concept - as theorized by the US military - is an objective that China must achieve: �China needs to be able to deny to the United States access and use of space, as they themselves exploit space to support their own forces�.

������������� Several factors, therefore, let one foresee that the impact of the Space challenge between the USA and China will exceed previous expectations about the strategical-military use of Space (spy satellites) and the race to install weapons, both offensively and defensively (concepts that are difficult to distinguish from each other, particularly in regard to the US military ultimate objective to �deny Space to others, if necessary�, suggesting that the offensive dimension will prevail against the defensive one).

������������� While we may not know much about the character of Chinese space policy (with the exception of the declarations of condemnation of any space weaponization plan -but the real intentions of China can be deduced from its will to expel the USA from its own area of infuence), we do know more about China's progress in Space. Meanwhile, it can be asserted definitively that the US is determined to maintain by all means possible (including denying the rest of the world access to Space) their own space leadership, the key to the �Full Spectrum Dominance� and the fundamental presupposition of the unipolar-imperialistic �New American Century�.

������������� The relation between the space dimension and the imperialistic dimension (with �Manifest Destiny� echos) of the USA, is sealed by the conclusions of a book written in 1996 by arms experts George and Meredith Friedman: �Just as by the year 1500 it was apparent that the European experience of power would be its domination of the global seas, it does not take much to see that the American experience of power will rest on the domination of space. Just as Europe expanded war and its power to the global oceans, the United States is expanding war and its power into space and to the planets. Just as Europe shaped the world for a half a millennium [by dominating the oceans by its fleets] so too the United States will shape the world for at least that length of time� - by dominating Space.

Gabriele Garibaldi

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