Brian Benoit

I will be at #ALTSMIA 2024 discussing "The Future of Alternatives" as a closing panelist. We will look at key trends in our industry and share our vision for the path that lies ahead. Markets Group, ALTS, CAIA Association, CFA Society Miami, CFA Society of South Florida, Miami Finance Forum

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In our most recent Quarterly Letter we discuss the Florida Land Boom of the 1920s, why value managers "cheat", and the importance of an antifragile investment strategy

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On August 19, 2024, the SEC settled a matter against a private fund adviser for violating the pay-to-play rule, Rule 206(4)-5 under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940.  A link to the order is below.  What makes this case worth a read is the fact that it is one of only a few where the violative conduct, i.e., the political contribution, was made by the employee before they were hired by the firm.  Under the rule, there is a look back period ranging from 6 months to 2 years depending on the employee’s role.  The adviser agreed to pay a civil penalty of $95,000.   This case stresses the importance for advisers to implement new hire pre-screening procedures that include reviews of political contributions occurring before employees are hired, perhaps in conjunction with background checks.  If a new hire has a political contribution that is problematic there may be ways to still hire them and avoid a violation, such as a returned contribution or a shift in the employee’s role during the rule’s disqualifying period.  https://lnkd.in/eM-Fqe93

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December indigestion caused by the Federal Reserve's comments today? The S&P was humming along until the FOMC cut 25 bps as expected, and the changes to the statement were trivial (although the vote to cut wasn’t unanimous). Chairman Powell wasn’t a reassuring voice at this meeting, and the market’s confusion led to hawkish projections and speculations for 2025. The S&P 500 closed at the day's lows, -3%. Capital flow was heavy at 145%. Today's move lower in the stock market was significant. We’re below the 50-day moving average for the first time since September. We’re not oversold (yet), and we’re (only) back at mid-October levels. From a technical standpoint, the rest of December should be a race for the exits….but dip-buyers will (most likely?) do their thing. It's worked for the last 12+ years, so why stop now? Considering today’s drop is rooted in a market unprepared for a Fed that wasn’t gung-ho with spiking the punch bowl a lot more, it could mean that once investors relax and think, they won’t believe this is all that bearish. If that’s the case, watch for an enjoyable bounce back. In summary, the fundamental landscape isn’t radically altered; however, the emotional landscape temporarily is.

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Great article by Carmen Arroyo Nieto and Immanual John Milton. Cash flows on the existing ABS structures have picked up materially since the COVID lows when airlines were deferring lease payments. This has encouraged increased investor participation. Now, rates have come down from the post pandemic high, and spreads have tightened leading to increased issuer interest and activity. An efficient #ABS market is an important source of liquidity to the #aviation market by facilitating the secondary trading of aircraft. #abs #assetbacked #aviation #castlelake

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🪐 NYC Investor Breakfast (Dec. 3, 8:30am) Off-the-record U.S. national security discussion with former high-ranking Pentagon officials 🪐 Langschiff Capital Partners and New Vista Capital are pleased to share that we have a select number of seats available to institutional investors for an off-the-record investor breakfast on Tuesday, Dec. 3, 8:30am ET in New York City. Kelly Magsamen (Fmr Chief of Staff to the Secretary of Defense), John Plumb (Fmr Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy) and Kirsten Bartok Touw (Co-Founder and Managing Partner of New Vista Capital) will discuss the state of U.S. aerospace, space, and defense technology. ​ To be discussed: 🪐 Where does the U.S. need to invest to protect its national security? 🪐 Nuclear threat in space: Is it real? How do we protect US assets? 🪐 Is China likely to invade Taiwan within the “Davidson Window”? 🪐 What does China as the “pacing challenge” mean?  🪐 Is the US military stretched too thin? Is now the perfect time for China to open a new front? Please register with the link below to attend the breakfast. We hope you can join us! https://lu.ma/sphdkgul #aerospace #space #defensetech

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Grateful for the opportunity to contribute to this Canadian Family Offices article on where families are placing capital at this time in the cycle. 🤔 The International Monetary Fund estimates the private credit market to be more than $2 trillion and expects growth to ‘outpace other asset classes.’ 😮 It is a special year for elections around the world. According to the World Economic Forum, a record 50 elections are happening. We are closely focused on the U.S. election. 🤓 More insightful contributions can be found in the recently released article below. 👍 #familywealth #familyoffice #canadiantalent #familybusiness #investment #nextgen #familyfirst #pangeafamilywealth #privatecredit #privatereit #privateequity #yield #dividend #irr #risk

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Gaucho Group Holdings, Inc. Observes Notable Surge In Buenos Aires Real Estate Market Recent Data Reveals Strongest Price Increase in Six Years, Signifying Robust Market Dynamics MIAMI, FL / ACCESSWIRE / May 6, 2024 / Gaucho Group Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:VINO), a company that includes a growing collection of e-commerce platforms with a concentration on fine wines, luxury real estate, and leather goods and accessories (the "Company" or "Gaucho Holdings"), today announced its analysis and response to recent data showing that property sales prices in Buenos Aires have registered the largest increase in the past six years. According to a monthly report prepared by Zonaprop, the first four months of 2024 have seen an accumulated increase of 1.9%, with a year-on-year rise of 2.5%. The recent uptick in property values in Buenos Aires is an encouraging indicator of economic vitality in the region. Gaucho Holdings believes this trend is a precursor to what may be a broader, country-wide increase in real estate prices. The anticipated introduction of more favorable lending rates and potential new mortgage offerings, linked to policy changes under the administration of President Javier Milei, could further enhance this upward trajectory. "Our real estate portfolio stands to benefit significantly from the strengthening market dynamics in Buenos Aires," said Scott Mathis, CEO and Founder of Gaucho Group Holdings, Inc. "The current increase in property sales prices not only underscores the enduring value of real estate investments in the area but also aligns with our expectations for further market expansion as new economic policies are introduced. We may anticipate a country-wide increase of up to 28% in real estate values over the next 12 months following the reintroduction of mortgage financing. For Gaucho Holdings' vineyard estate lots at Algodon Wine Estates in San Rafael, Mendoza, and our luxury boutique hotel in Buenos Aires, Algodon Mansion, we believe there could be a combined increase in value of approximately $35 million this year." Gaucho Holdings remains committed to its strategic focus in the luxury real estate sector, leveraging these favorable market conditions to enhance its asset base and strengthen its market presence. The Company continues to monitor economic developments and adjust its strategies to maintain alignment with market trends and opportunities.

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Frontier Airlines & Spirit Airlines revive merger talks. The history of Spirit Airlines is fascinating. This video by the The Wall Street Journal highlights the successes and failures of this airline. Aviation has always be known to be a highly cyclical industry. However, a number of factors including COVID, Russia and manufacturing issues have further increased left tail risks for sections of the industry, but especially the OEMs and the airlines. Spirit's stock priced increased 46% yesterday on rumours of a renewed merger with Frontier following the failed tie up with JetBlue. However the equity team at Barclays Investment Bank argue, "headlines suggesting another attempt at a Frontier-Spirit tie-up are the latest in the continuing liquidity saga at Spirit; but unfortunately, we see most signs pointing to a likely restructuring of Spirit in the near future". However they go on to argue, "A possible Frontier-Spirit merger would represent a positive for the industry as well as likely support a stronger and more sustainable ultra-low-cost competitor well into the next decade". As convertible bond and capital structure investors, the SAVE 1% 2026 is a prime example of a non-linear bond moving from bond-like to distressed, with the relationship between the equity and the convertible bond changing wildly. However, this is not always the case, which is counter intuitive. The graph attached in the comments highlights: 1) The evolution of the convertible bond price from balanced to bond-like to distressed 2) The changing relationship and correlation of the convertible bond and the equity 3) The peculiar calculation of the bond floor that changes from dynamic to static under stress. Of course, this is not accurate, but we highlight it as an example of inconsistencies in the pricing of hybrid securities. https://lnkd.in/dvYj685D #aviation #credit #equity #convertiblebonds

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Good article out today from the WSJ on some challenges facing Pension Funds stuck in Zombie PE Funds (see link below). It reminded me of a presentation from GS I recently saw where the allocation breakdown for Pension Fund assets was depicted. The move toward Alternatives has been aggressive over the last many years, now close to matching allocations to public Equities. However, as the article points out, complexity + illiquidity don't always translate into superior outcomes. For Pension Funds, it's been public equities that have served as a great source of liquidity recently, as they've been big sellers every month end this year and sanitizing gains into FI in the process. As retail investors become the latest targets for PE funds, they should take note and ask hard questions. WSJ: Pensions Piled Into Private Equity. Now They Can’t Get Out. "Now the honeymoon is over. The payouts have dried up, creating an expensive problem for investment managers overseeing the savings of workers retired from big corporations and state and city governments. To keep benefit checks coming on time, those managers are unloading investments on the cheap or turning to borrowing—costly measures that eat into returns. California’s worker pension, the nation’s largest, will be paying more money into its private-equity portfolio than it receives from those investments for eight years in a row. The engine maker Cummins took a 4.4% loss in its U.K. pension last year, in large part because it sold private assets at a discount. It is the latest cash crunch to befall retirement funds that have piled into hard-to-sell investments in search of high returns, and spotlights the risks as Wall Street is trying to sell those investments to wealthy households." https://lnkd.in/ePr8ZH-f #privateequity #macro #investing #trading #equities

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Spirit Airlines impending bankruptcy is the most glaring example of FTC Lina Khan’s excessive anti-trust regulation. By overstepping the norm, and with defiance of logic, the JetBlue deal was blocked. It was obvious that Spirit wouldn’t survive without a merger, yet the FTC still blocked the deal. The result is that Spirit will be one less airline (or a weakened one), job losses, etc, rather than Spirit being absorbed by a stronger hand that likely would have allowed the discount airline model to operate on regional flights At the very least, looking forward to the normalization of the FTC.

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A US appeals court has struck down the overreaching SEC rules that would have burdened private equity and hedge funds with unnecessary requirements. The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals recognized that the SEC exceeded its authority by mandating detailed quarterly reports and limiting side deals. This unanimous decision is a major victory against Gary Gensler's excessive regulatory agenda, which threatens to stifle growth and innovation in the industry. The court's ruling sends a message that regulators can't bypass Congress to push their ridiculous policies. The SEC's failure to link these new rules to fraud prevention only highlights their lack of justification. It's great to see the court protect our industry from costly and intrusive regulations. This decision reaffirms that the $27 trillion private funds industry, which supports pension funds, universities, and individuals, should not be hindered by unwarranted constraints. While the SEC may consider appealing to the Supreme Court, hopefully, the courts will continue to curb such regulatory overreach.

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🏥 CareTrust REIT Acquires 4-SNF Portfolio in the Mid-Atlantic for $74.7 Million 🚀 CareTrust REIT has announced its strategic acquisition of four skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) in the Mid-Atlantic, totaling approximately $74.7 million. Here’s a breakdown of the key highlights: * Diverse Portfolio: One facility includes assisted living options, enhancing service offerings. * New Operator Partnership: This acquisition marks the beginning of a relationship with a new operator managing facilities across multiple states (details not disclosed). 📈 Lease Terms: * Initial Term: 15 years * Extension Options: Two additional five-year terms * Year 1 Lease Yield: 9.3% (including transaction costs) with annual CPI-based escalators CEO Insights: Dave Sedgwick stated, “This acquisition quadruples our average annual investment rate and accelerates our mission to support strong operators in skilled nursing and senior housing.” 💰 Investment Stats: * Year-to-Date Investments: Over $900 million * Cash Reserves: Approximately $280 million on hand Recent Financial Moves: * Raised $309.9 million at an average price of $30.38/share through its new ATM program, increasing its share count to 171.5 million. * Paid off a $200 million term loan last month. Future Plans: Investment pipeline currently at $240 million in near-term opportunities, focusing primarily on skilled nursing facilities. https://lnkd.in/gJccbqqC

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Great speaking with Ryan Dube at the The Wall Street Journal about the potentially special moment we’re witnessing in Argentina and the investment opportunities that come with it. https://lnkd.in/eWSuegjz Global X ETFs Mirae Asset Global Investments #argentina #latinamerica #emergingmarkets

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BREAKING NEWS:🇺🇸 Expect at least one bank failure every week because of real estate collapse, says billionaire real estate investor Barry Sternlicht - Fortune Barry Sternlicht, a prominent figure in the real estate industry and the co-founder, chairman, and CEO of Starwood Capital Group, has recently expressed his concerns about the potential for significant bank failures in the United States. According to Sternlicht, the real estate market's struggles, particularly the office sector, might lead to weekly bank failures due to the high interest rates, vacancies, and inflation affecting the more than 4,000 regional and community banks in the U.S. Sternlicht's prediction is alarming, considering the recent seizure of Republic First Bank's $6 billion in assets and $4 billion in deposits by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. This incident highlights the challenges that banks face in managing their real estate loan portfolios effectively. Furthermore, Sternlicht's concerns are not new; he has been warning about the potential consequences of rising interest rates on the real estate and banking sectors for over two years. He has criticized the Federal Reserve's approach to managing the economy and has warned that certain segments, such as real estate and regional banking, are particularly vulnerable to rapid rate hikes. Given the current economic climate and the ongoing challenges in the real estate market, Sternlicht's warnings should be taken seriously. The potential for weekly bank failures could have far-reaching implications for the U.S. economy and its financial stability. It remains to be seen how the Federal Reserve and other financial regulators will respond to these challenges and whether they can mitigate the risks associated with the real estate sector's struggles.

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📈🏢 Aby Rosen's RFR Holding is facing a staggering $2.5B debt bill as defaults pile up! 💥 🔎 According to a recent Bisnow article, RFR Holding, a prominent NYC real estate firm, is grappling with mounting debt and defaults. The company, led by billionaire Aby Rosen, has a portfolio of high-profile properties, including the iconic Seagram Building and Lever House. 🏢🏦 📊 The firm's debt load has surged to a whopping $2.5B, with $1.1B in loans maturing this year alone. 💸 The pandemic has hit the commercial real estate market hard, causing defaults to skyrocket. RFR Holding is no exception, with defaults on several properties, including the $200M mortgage on the Seagram Building. 📉 🗣️ "The pandemic has created a perfect storm for commercial real estate," said one industry expert. "Companies like RFR Holding are facing unprecedented challenges as they navigate this difficult time." 🌪️ 🔜 So, what's next for RFR Holding? The company is reportedly exploring options to refinance its debt and avoid further defaults. 💡 With the commercial real estate market showing signs of recovery, there's hope that RFR Holding can weather this storm. 🌞 Stay tuned for more updates on this developing story! 📰🔔 #RFRHolding #CommercialRealEstate #Debt #Defaults #NYCRealEstate

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Attached please fine the Week in Pictures, with charts and commentary as follows: Is the “Break-Even” Change in Payrolls 300k? Immigration and the Labor Market Private Sector Net Interest Income Mixed Labor Messages Mexican Elections Spark Market Sell-Off Beginning of the FX Carry Unwind? Large Cap Dominance Nvidia Now at the Scale of France U.S. Equities Relative Valuation Multifamily the Next CRE Concern? Japan the Exception? Could Faster Wage Growth in Japan Mean a Weaker Labor Market?

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In a rapidly evolving market, finding the right balance between growth and operational efficiency is more important than ever. VISTRA is proud to sponsor a roundtable at the BVCA Summit titled "Streamlining Operations: Balancing Growth and Efficiency in Investment Management." ROSEMARY MCCOLLIN and I will delve into topics such as leveraging advanced technology, managing regulatory compliance, and more with top fund managers. #BVCA #PrivateEuity #FundManagement #Efficiency #RoundtableDiscussion

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