Simon Loughnane

🎙 Excited to share that I recently had the privilege of being a guest on the below podcast! A big thank you to Andy Davis for the opportunity. 🙏   In the episode, I spoke about: 💡 Why the insurance sector is such a great place to work for data professionals. 💡 How data can unlock the ability to consistently generate game-changing insights. 💡 How large language models can revolutionise how we interact with and understand data.   I also shared some pivotal lessons from my own career: 1️⃣ "He was a genius, how could I compete?"—The power of recognising your unique strengths. 2️⃣ "Instead of being made redundant, I was promoted!"—The potential rewards from being brave and taking initiative. 3️⃣ "How is a pencile made?"—How systems thinking helps unravel complexity to make better decisions.   And I couldn't resist diving into a favourite framework of mine: the OODA loop (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act)—a practical, agile approach to solving big or small problems by acting, iterating, and learning continuously.   If these topics resonate with you, or you’re curious to hear more about my perspective on data, systems thinking, or career growth, tune in to the episode below.   #Podcast #DataLeadership #InsuranceInnovation #CareerGrowth

2

Great advice! Working alongside the Model Risk Management team at 4most has really shown me that when developing new machine learning and generative AI models it can save you a lot of remedial work later by considering all the risks in a structured and constructive way before you implement.

5

The industry spent a lot on IFRS 17 implementations. But there is evidence that the industry will spend even more over the next five years to improve their IFRS 17 processes because current operations are not sustainable. If companies want a return on this investment, they need to do more than optimize their current platforms, they need to truly modernize. Doubling down on legacy technology will only ensure you get left behind.

29

3 Comments

Our risk modeling algorithms have always been geared towards industry specialization, but now, we even have scenarios (and editable scenario libraries) to assist in industry specialization and client customization. The future is here now!

34

1 Comment

JUST TO MAKE THIS SUPER CLEAR GenAI theoretically unlocks loads of new value for insurers, more than we can likely imagine (is there a tool for that? 🤣 ). We are already doing loads of it. The question to ask yourself is - do I have the right data foundations and capability to harness this in decisioning, customer & employee experiences and operational processes. At scale and across everything viably and feasibly? If not, then it's probably why you're once again stuck "up the PoC river without a paddle". Lets turn theory into reality by starting to address the enterprise design and technology changes needed to make this happen in an industry wonderfully complex, regulated and hugely valuable. Here's some of the Insurer AI Allies (IAIA 😇 ): Lisa Wardlaw Margeaux Giles Helen Burke Mike Daly Michael Dwyer Gary Leyden Nigel Walsh Sabine VanderLinden Paul Maker

27

13 Comments

Great piece of analysis by Verisk on the "new normal" loss profile to be expected by insurers over the coming years. Being cynical you could say this is a timely response to the (largely unfair) criticism of CAT models for not capturing the level of losses experienced over the past half decade. Detecting the role of climate change in the recent uptick of losses is "challenging", the report says. It sure is. Most of the upward trend in losses globally can be accounted for by exposure growth, then inflation. However, what this means is not that climate change is not already contributing to an increase in the risk, but that we're never going to see it in a loss record (yet). There is clear evidence of long term trends in some of the hazards underlying natural peril risk (so we know it's happening), but loss records are so very noisy and short, that we'd need 100s of years of them for a statistically significant climate change signal to emerge. It's also worth remembering that the losses we have experienced is only one realisation of a large number of potential outcomes, given the same climate conditions. Waiting until we can see a climate change signal in an insurance loss record could be viewed as a fool's game. #climatechange #insurance

58

1 Comment

Yesterday, the FRC launched new Actuarial guidance on Models including very reasonable suggestions on AI and ML. https://lnkd.in/ehDEBRkD My key takeaways on this inclusion of AI were: 🤖 Scope: Models developed using AI and ML are now within the scope of regulation, ensuring they meet the same standards as other models. 🧠 Model Explainability: The importance of understanding models is emphasised. If direct understanding isn’t possible, indirect methods should be used. If practitioners can’t understand a model due to AI/ML techniques, its fitness for purpose should be reconsidered. 🏛️ Governance: Additional governance levels may be needed to ensure compliance and proper functioning of AI/ML models. 📊 Data Quality: Special attention to data inputs is crucial, as they significantly impact model performance and output. 🌐 Real-World Performance: Model performance should be evaluated separately from training data to ensure effectiveness in real-world scenarios. 🔍 Bias Checks: Validation checks are necessary to identify any biases in model outputs. Data should be scrutinised for historical bias to ensure models do not perpetuate existing biases. Note: The 4 new scenarios in Appendix 2 are also very helpful to outline real-world application of these principles. #ActuarialScience #AI #MachineLearning #Governance #DataQuality #ModelExplainability

19

1 Comment

*Celebrating David Wilkie's contributions to Actuarial Science* - call for papers. To mark the 90th birthday of Prof David Wilkie on in March 2024, the Annals of Actuarial Science is issuing a call for papers (deadline 30 Sep 2024). The collection will be guest edited by Mary Hardy, Johnny Li, Alexander McNeil and Andrew Smith. The themes of the call include: * #Stochastic #models of #asset prices and economic risk factors * #Mortality #modelling * #Criticalillness modelling and #incomeprotection * Construction of #investmentindices * #Computation in #actuarial #science or on any other actuarial topic on which David Wilkie has published. Link to the call in the comments.

32

2 Comments

Inconsistency in ESG question sets is just one of the many hurdles we need to overcome as an industry in order to help influence positive change. This initiative is a step in the right direction - well done to all those involved!

15

2 Comments

In March, I posted a visual illustration of the (then) Chancellor’s Spring Budget speech. We ran the same process again for today's Autumn Budget (we don’t just advise our clients to use data analytics and automation tools – we use them in our own day-to-day work too), and the results were mildly interesting …. and to be taken with a pinch of salt … ‘Today’ was again one of the most used words, with ‘next’ not far behind. Listening to the Chancellor speak one might interpret this as desire to convey ‘urgency and a plan’. ‘Public’, ‘services’, ‘funding’ and ‘people’ are all prominent and reflective of the regular call-back to these central themes throughout the Chancellor’s speech. ‘Tax’ and ‘investment’ were mentioned a similar number of times, and again to my ear at least there appeared to be a conscious attempt to align the stated £40bn tax increase to the investment and growth agenda, with efficiency and productivity increases elided with the stated need for public sector investment and reform. I also noticed, and this was somewhat reflected in the data, that the Chancellor very consistently and deliberately used ‘I’ and ‘my’ throughout her speech. ‘We’ and ‘our’ were still used a bit more than twice as often, but it felt to me like the Chancellor was emphasising a level, or at least sense, of personal responsibility and accountability for the decisions made in the Budget.  At least, that is how I interpreted it. As a final thought, if you look at the two word clouds side-by-side, there is a definite correlation between the most commonly used words. Make of that what you will … For all our official Evelyn Partners Budget 2024 content (of which this post is not!), see our hub here: https://lnkd.in/eHATgfAj For the previous word cloud, that’s here: https://lnkd.in/e7eTqBeC Evelyn Partners Adrian Hextall James Naylor #Budget

34

How do insurers and reinsurers feel about their capital modelling capabilities in an ever-changing landscape? Join me, along with Raluca Stefan and Rajiv Jethwa on Thursday 23 May (10:00 am UK) as we delve into the results of our 2024 capital modelling survey to explain current processes in the market and ways in which they're looking to improve. During the webinar we will explore: Capital modelling processes Model validation Evolving regulations Emerging risks Sign up here: https://lnkd.in/eMkE5BCA #insurance #capitalmodelling

39

1 Comment

Two amazing days at the Insurance Innovators 2024 Summit have concluded, filled with deep insights and numerous highlights. My personal top two takeaways: 1️⃣ Future of Insurance Industry Alison Martin shared a compelling vision on how the industry will evolve, particularly in light of climate change-driven risks that impact us all. The three key elements were: ◆ #Resilience: We need to help our customers building resilience via creating awareness, offering expertise, and jointly developing and building resilience against growing risks. ◆ #TransitionRisk : As an industry, we need to strive to reach #NetZero as soon as possible by playing our role in collaboratively finding new and alternative ways to manage the associated transition risks with our clients and innovative technology companies. ◆ #Prevention: We need to insure as many people as possible. Increased focus on risk management, risk prevention and resilience is essential for achieving this. Zurich Insurance is successfully advancing in this direction. 2️⃣ Unlocking #NextGenUnderwritting ◆Strategic Vision First: The starting point is not technology or automation, but rather a clear vision and a new perspective on today's and future risks. Strategic underwriting plays a crucial role in establishing and developing long-term, continuous partnerships with clients, focusing on risk management and building resilience. ◆Foundational Elements: The foundations for enabling client-centric and customized underwriting include leveraging data, AI augmentation, deep client understanding, and proactive risk management. Everything that is seen as "non-strategic" or "commodity in underwriting process should be targeted for maximum automation. ◆ With these changes, the underwriting skill profile is expected to evolve, placing even greater emphasis on sales, data analytics, and insights. #InsuranceInnovation #IIS24 ##IISummit24

37

Data is an actuary's best friend. We analyse it to create forecasts and make decisions. Data is feedback on what has happened, and we improve by using it. Yesterday, I attended a great Actuarial "Unconference" Today, I received a request for feedback, and the penny dropped: 🥇 Feedback is data on the past 🥈 Data enables us to improve 🥉 We all have the gift to give feedback So today, I decided to share some feedback with a handful of people. Including Melissa Tam, the "Unconference" hero. I shared aloud what was in my head. It felt good. Why not do the same and give the gift of data! 🙂 #Feedback #DataDrivenDecisions 🚀

39

2 Comments

Quick quiz: what is the subject of this blurry picture? I've got a new article up at https://lnkd.in/eNTM8nrG revealing the answer, explaining what on earth this has to do with actuarial science, and showing how this is a powerful analogy for the value of hierarchical modeling. This article is part of our new Insurance Library, which has a growing collection of content that explores casualty industry dynamics, Ledger's modeling philosophy, and deeper dives into the technical aspects of insurance modeling.

27

3 Comments

While many insurers are still working through how to fully capitalise on Gen AI, it is certainly encouraging to see the speed and volume of experimentation and early adoption taking place in the UK market.

48

If legacy providers charge high cloud fees, how are they incentivized to run faster? Try Stoch’s Atlas platform for the power and efficiency you need.

6

📢 Global Q1 2024 insured losses of $20bn, however this is significantly lower than Q1 2023. The costliest peril in Q1 2024 was US severe convective storm, emphasising the necessity for enhanced understanding and risk quantification of this high-frequency hazard. Our CAT Research & Development teams are already dedicated to addressing this issue in order to provide the best possible insight and support to our clients. Find out more in Gallagher Re's Q1 2024 Natural Catastrophe Report. Read the full report: https://lnkd.in/e9A6k-8a

57

◻ Empowering Female Actuaries: Round table Roundup! ◻ Yesterday, Oliver James hosted another successful "Empowering Female Actuaries" round table session at One Lombard, chaired by the distinguished Jenny Segal—an actuary, author, and NED who is featured in The Actuary Magazine this month! We were delighted to host an inspiring group of professionals, including Tripat Riyait, Karina L., Orla Ward FIA, Sarah O'Sullivan, Tasneem Harnekar, and Abigail Fairhurst, along with my colleagues Laura Sharkey and Naomi McGee. Our discussions covered critical topics such as the Authority Gap, male allyship, and the importance of positive role models in the industry. Positive role models come in all forms, whether it's a senior stakeholder being vulnerable and discussing mental health, or a male stakeholder promoting the benefits of taking their six-month paternity leave on their career and family. It was noted that females are more likely to make changes to their career with a view of family planning, well in advance of their male counterparts. They often ask themselves, "Is this the place where my career can flourish as a parent?" Many of the areas we discussed pertain to workplace cultures and the improvements that can be made. (Jenny has written a wonderful book on this topic: Building Better Workplace Cultures!). Women are sometimes given conflicting advice about how to progress their careers in a male dominated industry, some being told to "behave like a man", with the effect then as being seen as "too bossy" rather than seen as being "authoritative". We rounded off by talking about the importance of bringing one's authentic self to work and seeking connection through friendships, support networks, and networking groups. However, it was noted that networking events should be more inclusive, allowing those with evening caring responsibilities to attend as well. One important takeaway: please don't ask a parent returning to the office how they feel "returning to work," as they haven't stopped working while on leave—they've just had a different manager 😉 , and parental leave isn't just a "nice break." #EmpoweringWomen #Actuaries #Leadership #DiversityAndInclusion #WorkplaceCulture #MaleAllyship #PositiveRoleModels #Networking #WorkLifeBalance

41

4 Comments

*** Event: Pricing and Professionalism – Protecting the Public and the Profession *** Presented by Colin Priest and Peter Baker This sounds like a very interesting and relevant session for #Actuaries to be up to date with the thinking around pricing issues. Note: Session is available to Actuaries Institute members only. Event Date: Jul 25, 2024 Event Time: 12:00pm to 2:00pm (Australia/Sydney) "Insurance pricing has been receiving plenty of media attention lately and it hasn’t always been good news. ⭐Price gouging, ⭐inflation, ⭐discrimination and ⭐loyalty penalties have been just some of the accusations made. The Working Group for Professional Support for Actuaries in Pricing has produced a paper and a set of principles to guide actuaries working in this environment. The Working Group has been careful to align their guidance with the Code of Conduct. This session aims to bring the many complex issues to life by discussing two case studies in a workshop format – one in each of general insurance and life insurance. Online participants will also be invited to join in the discussions. This is an opportunity for actuaries, especially those working in pricing roles, to learn and reflect on the intersection between professional principles and commercial practice. " #actuary #pricing #optimisation https://lnkd.in/gFqC-s82

4