Selda Kao

Selda Kao

London, England, United Kingdom
481 followers 468 connections

About

Data scientist/computational social scientist with a unique background in behavioural…

Activity

Experience

  • Monzo Bank Graphic
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    London, United Kingdom

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    London, United Kingdom

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    London, United Kingdom

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    Taipei City, Taiwan

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    Taipei, Taiwan

Education

  • Università di Trento Graphic

    Università degli Studi di Trento

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    Specialisation: Behavioural Economics, Computable Economics, Statistics

    Dissertation: Studies in Classical Behavioural Economics

    Explores an algorithmic approach to behavioural economics and ideas proposed by Herbert Simon. It distinguishes classical from modern behavioural economics, compares their methodology, philosophy and epistemology.

    Links the notion of bounded rationality to computability and computational complexity theory; human economic agents are characterised…

    Specialisation: Behavioural Economics, Computable Economics, Statistics

    Dissertation: Studies in Classical Behavioural Economics

    Explores an algorithmic approach to behavioural economics and ideas proposed by Herbert Simon. It distinguishes classical from modern behavioural economics, compares their methodology, philosophy and epistemology.

    Links the notion of bounded rationality to computability and computational complexity theory; human economic agents are characterised as Information Processing Systems operating in problem solving environments.

    Proposes using the game of Go as a paradigm for studying complex decision making and learning by humans; argues that “Go terms”(natural language) may play a key role among human players in pattern recognition and complexity reduction.

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    Specialisation: Artificial Intelligence Economics (Theory and applications of machine learning algorithms, evolutionary computation, artificial neural networks), Econometrics, and Time-Series Analysis.

    Dissertation: Significance of Heterogeneity in Financial Markets: Empirical Studies from Simple Agent-Based Financial Models

    • attempts to uncover the “types” of traders constituting the stock and foreign exchange markets by using agent-based simulations. By comparing the simulated…

    Specialisation: Artificial Intelligence Economics (Theory and applications of machine learning algorithms, evolutionary computation, artificial neural networks), Econometrics, and Time-Series Analysis.

    Dissertation: Significance of Heterogeneity in Financial Markets: Empirical Studies from Simple Agent-Based Financial Models

    • attempts to uncover the “types” of traders constituting the stock and foreign exchange markets by using agent-based simulations. By comparing the simulated and the real-world daily data, model parameters are refined.
    • employs a non-linear least squares model and uses Genetic Algorithm as the learning procedure to calibrate the model parameters.

Licenses & Certifications

Publications

  • Human and Machine Learning

    Computational Economics

    In this paper, we consider learning by human beings and machines in the light of Herbert
    Simon's pioneering contributions to the theory of Human Problem Solving. Using board
    games of perfect information as a paradigm, we explore differences in human and machine
    learning in complex strategic environments. In doing so, we contrast theories of learning in
    classical game theory with computational game theory proposed by Simon. Among theories
    that invoke computation, we make a…

    In this paper, we consider learning by human beings and machines in the light of Herbert
    Simon's pioneering contributions to the theory of Human Problem Solving. Using board
    games of perfect information as a paradigm, we explore differences in human and machine
    learning in complex strategic environments. In doing so, we contrast theories of learning in
    classical game theory with computational game theory proposed by Simon. Among theories
    that invoke computation, we make a further distinction between computable and
    computational or machine learning theories. We argue that the modern machine learning
    algorithms, although impressive in terms of their performance, do not necessarily shed
    enough light on human learning. Instead, they seem to take us further away from Simon's
    lifelong quest to understand the mechanics of actual human behaviour.

    Other authors
    See publication
  • Complex Systems Modeling and Simulation in Economics and Finance

    US: Springer

    Other authors
  • Size Effects in Agent-Based Macroeconomics Models: An Initial Investigation

    Agent-Based Approaches in Economics and Social Complex Systems IX, Springer, Singapore

    We investigate the scale-free property of an agent-based macroeconomic
    model initially proposed by Wright (2005), called the Social Architecture
    (SA) model. The SA model has been shown to be able to replicate
    a number of important features of a macroeconomy, such as patterns
    concerning economic growth, business cycles, industrial dynamics
    and income distribution. We explore whether macroeconomic stylized
    features resulting from this model are robust when the number of…

    We investigate the scale-free property of an agent-based macroeconomic
    model initially proposed by Wright (2005), called the Social Architecture
    (SA) model. The SA model has been shown to be able to replicate
    a number of important features of a macroeconomy, such as patterns
    concerning economic growth, business cycles, industrial dynamics
    and income distribution. We explore whether macroeconomic stylized
    features resulting from this model are robust when the number of agents
    populating the (model) economy vary. We simulate the model by systematically
    varying the agent population with 100, 500, 1000, 2,000, 4,000,
    8,000 and 10,000 agents. Our results indicate that the SA model does exhibit
    significant size effects for several important variables.

    Other authors
    See publication
  • Agent-Based Modeling of a Non-taˆtonnement Process for the Scarf Economy: The Role of Learning

    Computational Economics

    In this paper, we propose a meta-learning model to hierarchically integrate individual learning and social learning schemes. This meta-learning model is incorporated into an agent-based model to show that Herbert Scarf’s famous counterexample on Walrasian stability can become stable in some cases under a non-tâtonnement process when both learning schemes are involved, a result previously obtained by Herbert Gintis. However, we find that the stability of the competitive equilibrium depends on…

    In this paper, we propose a meta-learning model to hierarchically integrate individual learning and social learning schemes. This meta-learning model is incorporated into an agent-based model to show that Herbert Scarf’s famous counterexample on Walrasian stability can become stable in some cases under a non-tâtonnement process when both learning schemes are involved, a result previously obtained by Herbert Gintis. However, we find that the stability of the competitive equilibrium depends on how individuals learn—whether they are innovators (individual learners) or imitators (social learners), and their switching frequency (mobility) between the two. We show that this endogenous behavior, apart from the initial population of innovators, is mainly determined by the agents’ intensity of choice. This study grounds the Walrasian competitive equilibrium based on the view of a balanced resource allocation between exploitation and exploration. This balance, achieved through a meta-learning model, is shown to be underpinned by a behavioral/psychological characteristic.

    Other authors
    See publication
  • Herbert Alexander Simon (1916-2001)

    Handbook on the History of Economic Analysis, Volume I, Edward Elgar Publishing, UK

    Other authors
    • K. Vela Velupillai
  • Herbert Simon and agent-based computational economics

    Minds, models and milieux, Palgrave Macmillan, London

    Herbert Simon was a quintessential interdisciplinary scholar who made pioneering contributions concerning the notion of bounded rationality, built models based on it, and made important advances in understanding complex systems. His importance in the field of artificial intelligence, which was in turn the inspiration of agent-based computational economics (ACE), is discussed in detail in Chen (2005). Among all the Nobel Laureates in Economics, there are at least three whose work has been…

    Herbert Simon was a quintessential interdisciplinary scholar who made pioneering contributions concerning the notion of bounded rationality, built models based on it, and made important advances in understanding complex systems. His importance in the field of artificial intelligence, which was in turn the inspiration of agent-based computational economics (ACE), is discussed in detail in Chen (2005). Among all the Nobel Laureates in Economics, there are at least three whose work has been acknowledged by the ACE community. They are Friedrich Hayek (1899–1992), Thomas Schelling (1921-), and Elinor Ostrom (1933–2012). The last two worked directly on ACE. Schelling’s celebrated work on the segregation model is considered one of earliest publications on ACE (Schelling, 1971). Ostrom contributed to the development of empirical agent-based models (Janssen and Ostrom, 2006). Hayek did not work on ACE, but the connection of his work to ACE has been pointed out by Vriend (2002).

    See publication
  • Behavioural Economics: Classical and Modern

    The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought

    In this paper, the origins and development of behavioural economics, beginning with the
    pioneering works of Herbert Simon and Ward Edwards, are traced and (critically) discussed.
    Two kinds of behavioural economics–classical and modern–are attributed, respectively, to
    the two pioneers. The mathematical foundations of classical behavioural economics are
    identified, largely, to be in the theory of computation and computational complexity; the
    mathematical basis for modern…

    In this paper, the origins and development of behavioural economics, beginning with the
    pioneering works of Herbert Simon and Ward Edwards, are traced and (critically) discussed.
    Two kinds of behavioural economics–classical and modern–are attributed, respectively, to
    the two pioneers. The mathematical foundations of classical behavioural economics are
    identified, largely, to be in the theory of computation and computational complexity; the
    mathematical basis for modern behavioural economics is claimed to be a notion of
    subjective probability. Individually rational economic theories of behaviour, with attempts to
    broaden–and deepen–the notion of rationality, challenging its orthodox variants, were
    decisively influenced by these two mathematical underpinnings.

    Other authors
    • K. Vela Velupillai
    See publication
  • Computable and Computational Complexity Theoretic Bases for Herbert Simon’s Cognitive Behavioural Economics

    Cognitive Systems Research

    This paper aims to interpret and formalize Herbert Simon’s cognitive notions of bounded rationality, satisficing and heuristics in terms of computability theory and computational complexity theory. Simon’s theory of human problem solving is analyzed in the light of Turing’s work on Solvable and Unsolvable Problems. It is suggested here that bounded rationality results from the fact that the deliberations required for searching computationally complex spaces exceed the actual complexity that…

    This paper aims to interpret and formalize Herbert Simon’s cognitive notions of bounded rationality, satisficing and heuristics in terms of computability theory and computational complexity theory. Simon’s theory of human problem solving is analyzed in the light of Turing’s work on Solvable and Unsolvable Problems. It is suggested here that bounded rationality results from the fact that the deliberations required for searching computationally complex spaces exceed the actual complexity that human beings can handle. The immediate consequence is that satisficing becomes the general criterion of decision makers and heuristics are the procedures used for achieving their goals. In such decision problems, it is demonstrated that bounded rationality and satisficing are more general than orthodox, non-cognitive, Olympian rationality and optimization, respectively, and not the other way about.

    See publication
  • Noncomputability, Unpredictability, Undecidability and Unsolvability in Economics and Finance Theories

    Complexity

    We outline, briefly, the role that issues of the nexus between noncomputability and unpredictability, on the one hand, and between undecidability and unsolvability, on the other hand, have played in Computable Economics (CE). The mathematical underpinnings of CE are provided by (classical) recursion theory, varieties of computable and constructive analysis and aspects of combinatorial optimization. The inspiration for this outline was provided by Professor Graça's thought‐provoking recent…

    We outline, briefly, the role that issues of the nexus between noncomputability and unpredictability, on the one hand, and between undecidability and unsolvability, on the other hand, have played in Computable Economics (CE). The mathematical underpinnings of CE are provided by (classical) recursion theory, varieties of computable and constructive analysis and aspects of combinatorial optimization. The inspiration for this outline was provided by Professor Graça's thought‐provoking recent article.

    Other authors
    See publication
  • Origins and Pioneers of Behavioural Economics

    Interdisciplinary Journal of Economics and Business Law

  • Computational behavioural economics

    Routledge Handbook of Behavioral Eco- nomics, Routledge, London

    Other authors

Projects

  • Size-effect in Agent based simulation

    - Present

    This project examines the potential size-effect in agent-based macroeconomic models.

    Other creators
    See project
  • Data Cleansing, Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) Project, Academia Sinica, Taiwan

    This project involved using SAS to the logical flaws in PSFD data set. This dataset is a panel data (both time-series and cross section).

    PSFD first hand data was collected painstakingly by face-to-face survey and census for years in a row on huge amount of subjects. The collected paper questionnaires were later typed in to computers. There were significant amount of flaws of data due to human errors these processes. For example, one of the data showed that a male subject gave birth to…

    This project involved using SAS to the logical flaws in PSFD data set. This dataset is a panel data (both time-series and cross section).

    PSFD first hand data was collected painstakingly by face-to-face survey and census for years in a row on huge amount of subjects. The collected paper questionnaires were later typed in to computers. There were significant amount of flaws of data due to human errors these processes. For example, one of the data showed that a male subject gave birth to two children. Such errors in data affect any analysis by using this data set.

    Other creators
    • P.C. Roger Cheng
  • Computing Wage-Profit Froniters

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    This project involved using Matlab and R libraries to compute wage-profit frontier (a means of measuring technological progress) of many countries. High dimensional tensors are operated in the computation.

    Other creators

Honors & Awards

  • Phi Tau Phi Scholastic Honor Society of the Republic of China

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    I was nominated by National Central University, Taiwan.

Languages

  • English

    Full professional proficiency

  • Chinese

    Native or bilingual proficiency

  • Italian

    Elementary proficiency

Organizations

  • Algorithmic Social Science Research Unit

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    - Present

    http://www.assru.org/

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