Richard King

In Most of the UK's wholesale gas contracts experienced declines during September, with the exception of day-ahead contracts. However, there is still significant price risk associated with longer-term contracts due to continued uncertainty about future gas supply, as Europe adapts to reduced Russian gas imports ahead of the December expiration of the Ukraine transit deal. On average, seasonal gas contracts for winter 2024 to winter 2026 fell by 8.1% compared to the previous month. Notably, winter 2025 contracts held the highest average price at 97.75p/th in September. The movement in gas prices was shaped by competing market fundamentals, with day-ahead prices rising in the latter half of the month due to lower wind generation and below-average temperatures, which pushed up demand for gas in power generation and heating. Towards the end of September, unconfirmed reports suggesting that Ukraine had agreed to transit Azerbaijani gas to Europe stirred market volatility. These concerns were heightened by the looming end of the Ukraine-Russia transit agreement, and the potential for disruptions in US LNG output due to Hurricane Francine, which sent a bullish signal through the market. Since the EU relies heavily on US LNG, any disruption in supply could have a significant impact. However, the bearish influence of strong EU gas storage levels acted as a counterbalance to price rises, reinforcing supply confidence for the upcoming winter. Day-ahead gas prices rose 2.6% in September, averaging 86.30p/th. In contrast, front-month contracts saw a 10.2% decline, with October averaging 86.86p/th and November at 93.99p/th. The gap between front-month and day-ahead contracts also narrowed, after the premium in August diminished. Day-ahead power prices mirrored gas trends, climbing by 26.6% to an average of £78.05/MWh in September. The highest price of £92.94/MWh was recorded on September 2, driven by the shutdown of the 580MW Heysham nuclear reactor 1, combined with reduced wind generation. This tightening of system margins required more expensive power sources to meet demand. Despite these day-ahead price increases, seasonal power contracts for winter 2024 to summer 2026 recorded average losses of 7.3%. Front-month power contracts also fell, mirroring the gas market, with October and November 2024 prices down 9.8% to £73.25/MWh and £83.94/MWh, respectively.

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I'm sure a few of you are up to your armpits in REMA, the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements that DESNEZ launched on the 12th March for response by 7th May. That's some 46 days to respond on the biggest change to our industry since NETA in 2001. And luckily you only have to wade through a mere 294 pages of documentation. For those of you who aren't, this consultation has some proposed changes which have huge implications for the UK power market - and many of them are mad, bad and downright risky. Think I'm indulging in hyperbole? I'd urge you to get familiar with the provisions being considered because they WILL change your business model, whether you are a generator, a customer, a consultancy, a supplier, an investor - yes, in other words everybody. Unfortunately DESNEZ will congratulate themselves on their broad stakeholder engagement, never mind the fact that most actors barely have the resources to do any justice to the amount of work that needs to be done on this. So unless you want to see a meaningful forward market to disappear, PPAs to become a thing of the past, and you want to learn how to trade transmission rights, I urge you to respond. Good luck! #REMA #wholesaletrading #electricitymarkets #nationalgrid

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We have today launched our annual Gas Winter Outlook. Each year, this report outlines how we see the gas system’s capacity in Great Britain, as well as pressure points and overall resilience for the upcoming winter. We expect gas demand will remain similar to last year. Great Britain's diverse and flexible gas supplies position us well to manage the colder weather ahead. What remains paramount is the role gas plays in our energy system. Our report found that last year, gas accounted for over 50% of Great Britain’s electricity generation between high-demand periods like late November to early December. As we work towards incorporating renewables and other sources of green energy into our wider energy system, gas’ vital role in the energy system cannot be understated, as it continues to prove essential in providing businesses and industries with the energy they need. Working closely with our cross-industry partners, I am confident in our abilities at National Gas to deliver the energy Great Britain needs this winter – keeping the lights on, industries fuelled and homes warm. Gas remains critical in this effort as we transition towards cleaner alternatives. #SecuringBritainsEnergy Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eC6WFgXf

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Daily Energy Market Update - September 2nd, 2024 Today’s UK energy market saw significant movements, particularly in both gas and power prices. The NBP Gas Day-Ahead price experienced a notable increase of 2.65%, reaching 94.79 p/th. This upward trend extended to key contracts such as October 2024, which rose by 2.07% to 96.15 p/th. These price movements reflect the current market dynamics and underlying factors influencing supply and demand. In the power market, UK Base Day-Ahead power prices surged dramatically, with a sharp increase of 42.56%, bringing the price to £91.97/MWh. Even more striking was the rise in peak power prices, which climbed by 56.12% to £93.50/MWh. These significant jumps in power prices can be attributed to several critical factors impacting the market this week. One of the primary drivers is the forecasted shortfall in wind power generation. This week, wind output is expected to fall over 20% below seasonal norms. As wind plays a crucial role in the UK's energy mix, this reduction in generation capacity is putting upward pressure on prompt energy prices, as the market anticipates a tighter supply-demand balance. Adding to the bullish sentiment in the gas market is the ongoing industrial maintenance in Norway, which is set to have a considerable impact on gas flows. With a reduction of 40 million cubic meters per day in Norwegian gas flows, the market is reacting with higher prices as supply tightens. Despite these factors, temperatures in Britain for the week are expected to align with seasonal norms. While this will likely have a limited impact on gas demand, the market is more focused on the supply-side constraints and the reduced wind generation that are driving prices higher. Looking at the broader energy complex, we see TTF Gas Day-Ahead prices inching up by 0.89% to €39.15/MWh, while the Front Month price rose by 2.43% to €39.82/MWh. On the global front, Brent Crude prices declined by 2.46%, now trading at $76.93 per barrel. Meanwhile, in the carbon markets, both UK and EU carbon prices saw minor declines, with UK carbon closing at £43.31 per tonne, down 2.61%. In summary, today’s energy market activity is shaped by a combination of reduced wind generation, significant Norwegian gas maintenance, and stable temperature forecasts. These factors are collectively driving the sharp increases we’ve seen in UK power and gas prices. As we move further into the week, it will be crucial to monitor how these elements continue to influence the market. Stay tuned for more updates, and as always, feel free to reach out with any questions or for deeper insights into these trends.

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UK Energy Prices Pump as Supply Risks Loom: Gas, Power, and Renewables Face Winter Challenges - 30.09.24. Today’s UK energy market opened with modest gains in both gas and power prices. The NBP Day-Ahead gas price settled at 91.50 p/therm, reflecting a 1.70 p/therm increase from the previous session. This price movement is driven by concerns over supply constraints, with Norwegian production still facing challenges, particularly at Nybro and Kristin facilities. These issues, coupled with a lack of LNG regasification nominations, have tightened the UK system, which opened 12 mcm/day short this morning. Flows from Norway through Langeled are lower, and Vesterled is currently not exporting gas. The overall gas flow was measured at 290.5 mcm/day, the highest recorded exit nominations in over a month, yet the market remains wary as the risk of further supply disruptions continues, especially with winter approaching. In terms of storage, no withdrawals from medium-range storage (MRS) sites were observed, while Rough continues with steady injections. Warmer temperatures for early October are forecast, with a potential peak on October 6th, pushing temperatures nearly two degrees above seasonal norms. Windspeeds are predicted to stay above average early this week, offering a boost to renewable generation. However, a dip in wind generation is expected between October 2nd and 5th. The UK nuclear output remains below full capacity, and further reductions are expected, with output dropping to 4.0 GW by the weekend. Power prices saw similar upward momentum, with the Day-Ahead Base price settling at £76.80/MWh, a significant increase compared to Friday. Day-Ahead Peak prices were even more pronounced, rising to £86.01/MWh. Spot contracts saw the largest gains, driven by the weather forecast and ongoing concerns over gas supply. Looking ahead, power prices for Q125 continue to rise, with the market pricing in potential further supply squeezes as winter progresses. In the wider energy market, Brent crude oil for November delivery settled at $71.98 per barrel, ticking up by $0.38. Coal prices for delivery in 2025 also showed some movement, rising by $2.77 to $123.77/tonne, as global markets continue to balance supply and demand. As we head into October, market participants are preparing for the onset of colder weather and the increased demand that will follow. Supply risks from Norwegian fields and global LNG flows are being carefully monitored, while renewable generation, particularly wind, will play a critical role in offsetting these supply concerns. With temperatures expected to dip below average after October 8th, the balance of supply and demand in the UK energy market will likely tighten further. Traders and stakeholders will continue to watch geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and the ongoing challenges in gas and power supply as we move towards the end of the year.

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                 Morning Briefing 13/11/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 38.9GW and due to peak this evening at 41.8GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £84 - £159 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £113.00 in the 1hr and £111.24 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 4.0W and due to stay at similar levels throughout the day before climbing up to 13.5GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 4.5GW at 11am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £126.99/MWh with gas providing 59.2%/21.38GW, wind providing 14.7%/5.30GW, solar providing 2.4%/0.87GW and nuclear providing 13.3%/4.80GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 109.00p/th (3.72p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £107.00/MWh (10.70p/KWh)   Month ahead (Dec 24) ·Dec NBP gas is currently down 1.90% at 110.29p/th (3.76p/KWh). ·Dec TTF gas is currently down 2.50% at €43.10MWh. ·Dec UK Baseload currently at £92.00/MWh (9.20p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were mixed yesterday, rising and falling throughout the day, with the DA price up 1.00% as some below normal temps gave some support to prices. Along the curve, the Q1 25 contract was up 1.53% as the increased gas demand for heating meant storage stocks were being withdrawn and kept the market on its toes.    ·UK power prices were also mixed, with the DA price down just 0.07% as forecast renewables and demand looked to stay at similar levels today. Along the curve, contracts were mixed, with the Q1 25 contract up 0.59% as the forecast of some colder weather next week, although the forecast of surging wind power helped to keep a lid on some prices. ·Ofgem has approved five undersea energy projects to enhance the UK’s clean energy and energy security, potentially positioning it as a net exporter by 2030 - three of them are interconnectors that will add nearly 3GW of capacity by linking the UK with Germany, Ireland, and Scotland ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages this morning with total exports at 345.0mcm. ·Oil prices were slightly up this morning, underpinned by signs of near term supply tightness but held near their lowest in two weeks, a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.   ·Latest forecasts show potential for temps next week to be below seasonal norms. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due by 25th November. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 112.43p/th (3.84p/KWh) up 1.69% DoD* o   Q1 25 111.96p/th (3.82p/KWh) up 1.53% DoD o   Summer 25 103.73p/th (3.54p/KWh) up 1.13% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £92.30/MWh (9.23p/KWh) up 0.49% DoD* o   Q1 25 £95.43MWh (9.54p/KWh) up 0.59% DoD o   Summer 25 £80.18MWh (8.02p/KWh) down 0.11% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo David Chart - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #winter

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Daily Energy Market Report: As of 7th November 2024, the UK energy market reflects the ongoing volatility driven by fluctuating gas supplies, shifting currency values, and varied renewable generation forecasts. Natural gas and power prices are responding to both domestic and international pressures as the market navigates supply chain developments and seasonal demand. Today, the UK's natural gas market opened with a slight oversupply, at around 7 million cubic meters per day, suggesting a temporary buffer in meeting national demand. Despite low interconnector flows to the continent, the UK has a minor import of 1 mcm/day via the BBL pipeline due to retained premiums in the National Balancing Point (NBP). LNG sendouts are steady, with strong inflows from Norwegian gas sources further stabilising supplies as maintenance at the Teesside terminal concluded. Additionally, Norwegian gas continues to support UK imports with robust flows via the Langeled and Vesterled pipelines, which contribute to the steady supply amidst anticipated temperature drops later in the month. On the pricing front, NBP Day-Ahead gas closed at 102.40 pence per therm, while forward contracts for December and January 2025 also saw modest changes, reflecting a stable near-term market outlook. Meanwhile, UK power prices showed a downward shift, with the Day-Ahead Baseload price dropping by £16.38 to £102.10/MWh. Renewables have been contributing less than usual, as wind generation forecasts remain below average for the coming week. This lower wind generation has put pressure on N2EX prices, which peaked this year with an aggregate daily price of 127.15 GBP/MWh, further reflecting the importance of renewables in offsetting gas-fired generation costs. Looking to international influences, yesterday's US election results, marking a decisive victory for Donald Trump, spurred market reactions, with expectations of increased oil production and a stronger dollar potentially impacting future gas prices. Meanwhile, European hubs like TTF have shown price increases on the back of a bullish gas complex in the final hour of trading, partially driven by limited LNG inflows. UK storage levels remain healthy, with many sites nearing or reaching capacity, which should help mitigate the risks of winter supply shocks. Individual storage levels across major sites like Aldbrough, Hornsea, and Isle of Grain demonstrate solid buffers, keeping the UK well-positioned for anticipated demand spikes. Furthermore, two LNG cargoes are inbound, scheduled to arrive over the weekend, which should provide additional flexibility. As the UK braces for colder weather, short-term outlooks are centered on balancing renewable integration, currency fluctuations, and any shifts in natural gas flows from European neighbors. Continued monitoring of US and European energy policies will also be critical, as the global landscape remains dynamic.

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End of Day UK #Energy Market Update – 05/09/2024 The UK energy markets saw a notable rebound today, ending a three-day losing streak across Power and Gas prices. Front-month UK Power closed at £74.25/MWh, up by 1.71%, while the front-month NBP Gas contract saw an increase of 1.79%, closing at 87.52p/therm. This uptick comes after a period of downward pressure, likely driven by the recent cooler weather forecasts and improved wind generation across Europe. Gas prices, which had been in decline, regained momentum following Russian President Vladimir Putin's comments, indicating that Russia remains willing to supply gas to Europe through Gazprom. However, with Europe's firm stance on reducing dependency on Russian gas, concerns are mounting over potential supply constraints post-New Year, as the transit agreement via Ukraine is set to expire. Further out on the curve, Q1 2025 Power prices increased by 1.95%, closing at £82.36/MWh, while Gas contracts for the same period rose by 2.04%, finishing at 94.67p/therm. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders pricing in possible supply disruptions and colder-than-expected weather forecasts for early 2025. In the carbon markets, Dec24 EUAs slipped by 0.66%, closing at €66.56/tonne, reflecting a softening in demand expectations. In contrast, UKAs inched up by 0.57%, finishing at £42.01/tonne as the UK government continues to align its carbon policies with broader European targets. On the global commodities front, Brent crude surged by 1.68%, settling at $73.92/barrel, amid tightening supply expectations as OPEC+ maintains its output cuts. This rise in oil prices also provided some bullish sentiment to the broader energy complex. With geopolitical tensions still a key driver of volatility, and Europe on the cusp of transitioning away from Russian gas supplies, it remains essential for market participants to stay agile in navigating the evolving landscape. Our team at Catalyst Commercial Services Ltd is here to provide insights and support as you navigate the evolving energy landscape. #EnergyMarket #UKEnergy #CarbonTrading #NaturalGas #MarketUpdate #EnergyInsights

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Today 16th October’s UK energy landscape reflects shifting dynamics across gas, power, and renewables, with mild temperatures and steady LNG inflows shaping the market. Gas prices on the NBP day-ahead market settled at 96.00 p/therm, slightly lower than the previous session, as the system opened this morning undersupplied by 22 mcm/day. While piped flows from Norway remained flat, UKCS production decreased to 102 mcm/day. LNG send-out from South Hook and Isle of Grain provided 14 mcm/day, with additional LNG cargoes expected in the coming weeks to support the UK’s supply. Power prices followed suit, with the day-ahead baseload settling at £67.88/MWh, a sharp decline from yesterday’s £87.12/MWh, reflecting higher wind generation and milder demand expectations. However, as wind forecasts predict output dropping below seasonal norms in the coming days, gas demand for power generation could increase, potentially influencing prices upward. On the supply side, nuclear availability remained steady despite several ongoing outages, including units at Heysham and Torness. Weather forecasts suggest today will be the warmest of the month so far, with temperatures expected to stay above seasonal norms until the end of October. This trend is contributing to softer demand for heating, easing pressure on both gas and electricity markets. Meanwhile, carbon prices also eased slightly, with EUA Dec 24 certificates trading at €65.09/tonne, and the UK ETS market at £39.04/tonne, reflecting reduced short-term emissions intensity. Currency movements saw GBP/EUR at 1.1997, while GBP/USD edged up to 1.3072. With three LNG cargoes set to arrive soon and strong Norwegian flows to the continent, market fundamentals appear stable, though fluctuations in wind generation may drive volatility in power prices in the days ahead.

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Morning Briefing 11/09/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 28.1GW and due to peak this evening at 33.7GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £10 - £112 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £50.04 in the 1hr and £54.88 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently approx. 2GW under forecast at 11.9GW and meant to peak at 14.9GW later today before slowly dropping to 6.5GW tomorrow evening. Solar is due to peak at 6.7GW at midday. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £78.14/MWh with gas providing 11.4%/3.63GW, wind providing 48.0%/15.27GW, solar providing 7.6%/2.41GW and nuclear providing 15.3%/4.87GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 86.90p/th (2.97p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £79.00/MWh (7.90p/KWh)   Month ahead (Oct 24) ·Oct NBP gas is currently up 1.18% at 85.58p/th (2.92p/KWh). ·Oct TTF gas is currently up 0.90% at €35.60MWh. ·Oct UK Baseload closed at £72.00/MWh (7.20p/KWh) ·UK gas prices fell to a 5 week low yesterday, with the DA down 4.21% with the slump seeming to be drive by the drop in oil prices which as helped to curb the cost of LNG in Asia. Along the curve, the Win24 was down 4.62% due to the bearish fundamentals and the news that Hurricane Francine appeared to be moving away from three key US LNG facilities.   ·UK power prices evolved differently, with the DA price climbing 40.96% due to the forecast drop in wind generation compared to Monday. Along the curve, the Win24 contract was down 3.42% with the gas sentiment and drop in the carbon market adding further pressure alongside the other bearish fundamentals. ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages with total flows reduced due to planned maintenance at 192.8MSm. ·Oil prices are positive this morning, paring some of yesterdays losses, as concerns about Hurricane Francine disrupting output in the US outweighed worries about weak global demand.   ·Latest forecasts show temps to be a few degrees under seasonal norms for the coming days but then be back around norms at the weekend. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 84.58p/th (2.89p/KWh) down 5.96% DoD* o   Q4 24 91.96p/th (3.14p/KWh) down 4.97% DoD o   Winter 24 95.55p/th (3.26p/KWh) down 4.62% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £72.65/MWh (7.27p/KWh) down 4.22% DoD* o   Q4 24 £80.99MWh (8.10p/KWh) down 3.65% DoD o   Winter 24 £84.89MWh (8.49p/KWh) down 3.42% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas David Jo Chart credit - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #oil #renewables #lng #norway

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On November 5th, 2024, UK energy markets opened with sharp price movements across natural gas and power, highlighting the continued volatility in a winter marked by shifting geopolitical risks and tight supply conditions. Natural gas day-ahead prices rose to 101.35 pence per therm, up nearly 6 pence from yesterday, driven by reduced wind output and stable, albeit constrained, Norwegian flows. Prompt contracts saw gains across the board, reflecting limited wind generation and planned maintenance on key infrastructure. The largest UK gas production field, Culzean, with a capacity of 10 mcm/day, remains nearly fully offline until tomorrow. Norwegian flows, impacted by both planned and unplanned outages, continue to face disruptions along the Vesterled pipeline, now extending through November 26. Today's nominations from the Norwegian shelf reached 324.7 mcm/day, though the system opened short by 12 mcm/day, keeping upward pressure on UK gas prices. LNG sendouts are steady at 38 mcm/day, with three new cargoes expected by November 9th, ensuring additional supply resilience. In the power market, day-ahead baseload settled at £112.44/MWh, and peak power surged to £133.88/MWh. The spike is primarily attributed to lower wind output and tight supply conditions driven by rising gas prices. Limited renewable generation has further amplified power prices as cooler temperatures increase demand, with forecasts suggesting continued low wind output for the week ahead. On the international front, French electricity demand for October hit its lowest level since 2014, bolstered by high nuclear availability and hydropower, underscoring contrasting supply dynamics within Europe. Brent crude oil settled at $75.08 per barrel, reflecting steady demand and geopolitical concerns around today’s US election and escalating Middle East tensions. These events introduce additional uncertainty, with market participants closely watching for potential implications on oil and gas flows. On the carbon front, EUA certificates for December 2024 traded at €65.22 per tonne, while the UK ETS stood at £37.99 per tonne, reinforcing the carbon price's role in influencing broader market trends as winter demand picks up. Currency markets saw GBP/EUR at 1.1896 and GBP/USD at 1.2957, with minimal day-to-day fluctuations as energy market participants await clearer direction from political and economic developments across Europe and the US. Today’s market activity serves as a reminder of the complex dynamics at play this winter, from infrastructure constraints to global geopolitical factors, all of which continue to shape the UK energy landscape. With weather patterns and political uncertainties still unfolding, expect volatility to persist across gas and power markets as we move further into November.

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As of October 1, 2024, the UK energy market has entered a critical period as colder weather and tighter supply conditions push natural gas prices higher. The NBP Day-Ahead settled at 92.35 p/therm today, driven by falling temperatures across the UK and Europe, which are expected to remain below the five-year average for the rest of the week. With Norwegian gas exports holding steady and UKCS terminal receipts down, gas-for-power demand has surged in response to a forecasted decline in wind speeds throughout the week. Meanwhile, UK LNG send-outs have increased to 29 mcm/day, with the next LNG cargo from Qatar anticipated later this week to shore up supplies. On the forward curve, NBP front-month prices climbed modestly, with November 2024 contracts up by 0.96 p/therm to 97.36 p/therm, while December 2024 saw a rise of 0.77 p/therm to 99.36 p/therm. Curve prices continue to reflect market concerns around reduced LNG imports and the potential for increased demand as the winter period approaches, setting the stage for continued volatility. In the power market, UK Day-Ahead baseload prices fell to £71.78/MWh, a drop of £5.02 from the previous session, while peakload power rose to £88.09/MWh. The tightening of the power system, driven by reduced wind generation and increasing reliance on gas for power, suggests further upward pressure on power prices as the week progresses. Forward baseload contracts, particularly January 2025, have seen slight increases, with the contract settling at £90.15/MWh, up by £0.75. As renewable output declines and colder weather takes hold, higher demand for gas-fired power generation is likely to fuel further price hikes. European gas storage levels remain robust, standing at 94.28% as reported by AGSI, offering some cushion for the winter months. However, risks tied to LNG supply reductions and planned outages at key Norwegian gas facilities could exacerbate market tightness. These developments highlight the importance of closely monitoring supply flows as winter approaches. In the global commodities market, Brent crude futures for November 2024 eased slightly by $0.21, settling at $71.77/bbl. Market sentiment remains cautious amid global economic uncertainties, contributing to softening oil prices. On the carbon market, EUA December 2024 prices dropped by €0.77 to settle at €65.56/tonne, while UK ETS contracts also saw a slight decline, closing at £36.45/tonne. These shifts come against the backdrop of ongoing discussions on the future of emissions reductions and energy transition strategies across Europe, which could have further implications for carbon pricing in the coming months. As we move further into October, the market will be focused on how sustained cooler temperatures and reduced wind generation will impact both gas and power prices. LNG cargo arrivals and any potential disruptions to Norwegian gas flows will also be key factors shaping market dynamics in the days ahead.

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Really value how Energy Link Ltd takes a plain English approach to explaining the impact of dispatchable demand versus voluntary industrial demand response, and what this means for price signals in the #market in the move to greater #renewable #electricity

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Morning Briefing 12/12/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 40.9GW and due to peak this evening at 44.7GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £84 - £506 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £198.72 in the 1hr and £234.74 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently 1GW under forecast at 1.3GW an due to rise to 3.3GW this evening and continue up to 6.8GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 0.7GW at 11.30am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £243.57/MWh with gas providing 73.9%/27.83GW, wind providing 4.8%/1.80GW, solar providing 0.1%/0.04GW and nuclear providing 10.0%/3.76GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 109.30p/th (3.73p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £148.00/MWh (14.80p/KWh)   Month ahead (Jan 25) ·Jan NBP gas is currently down 0.54% at 109.62p/th (3.74p/KWh). ·Jan TTF gas is currently down 0.75% at €44.38MWh. ·Jan UK Baseload currently at £95.50/MWh (9.55p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were negative yesterday, with the DA price down 2.31%, predominantly pressure by milder and windier weather forecasts for the second half of December. Along the curve, the Sum25 contract was down 1.35% as the strong LNG supply continued to add to the bearish sentiment despite the rise in gas for power demand. ·UK power prices were mixed, with the DA price up 13.52% due to the forecast drop in wind and solar generation today, which caused markets to auction as high as £506/MWh in the peak. Along the curve, the Sum25 contract was down 0.51% tracking the gas sentiment as the milder weather and strong supply picture added pressure. ·According to Gassco AS, there is an unplanned outage at Asgard with 8.6mcm unavailable capacity, with total exports at 330.2mcm. ·OMV has terminated its Gazprom contract with immediate effect, citing alleged violations of contractual obligations by the Russian supplier, is said late on Wednesday. ·Oil prices are up slightly this morning as forecasts of weak demand and a higher than expected rise in US gasoline and distillate inventories stemmed gains from an additional round of EU sanctions threatening Russian oil flows. ·Latest forecasts show temps to be milder than once thought, rising 3degrees above norms on the 16th and then staying above or on averages. ·There are currently 10 LNG cargoes due in the coming weeks. ·UK Gas prices as of Wednesdays close -  o   Month ahead 110.22p/th (3.76p/KWh) down 2.38% DoD* o   Q1 25 110.15p/th (3.76p/KWh) down 2.24% DoD o   Summer 25 104.31p/th (3.56p/KWh) down 1.35% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Wednesdays close – o   Month ahead £95.45/MWh (9.55p/KWh) down 1.70% DoD* o   Q1 25 £93.11MWh (9.31p/KWh) down 1.48% DoD o   Summer 25 £80.50MWh (8.05p/KWh) down 0.51% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #wind #gazprom

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As of 7th October 2024, the UK energy market has opened with notable shifts in gas and power prices, reflecting both geopolitical uncertainty and supply-demand dynamics. UK natural gas prices rose slightly, with the NBP Day-Ahead contract settling at 97.80 pence per therm, a 2 pence increase from the previous session. This upward movement is partially attributed to ongoing unplanned maintenance at Norway's Troll gas field, as well as planned maintenance at other facilities. Total exit nominations have now reached over 300 million cubic meters per day, but despite bullish factors like strong Medium Range Storage injections and increased gas demand for power, market fundamentals remain largely bearish. Norwegian imports to the UK are flowing at 58 million cubic meters per day, while temperatures are forecasted to drop below seasonal averages starting 9th October, which could shift demand in the coming days. UK power prices have also experienced some volatility, with the Day-Ahead baseload price falling to £76.24 per MWh, a decrease of over £7 compared to the previous session. However, forward contracts, particularly for Q1-25, saw increases as prices for Nov-24, Dec-24, and Jan-25 edged up. The gas market’s influence, coupled with geopolitical tensions, continues to play a key role in shaping short-term price movements. Wind speeds are expected to remain above seasonal averages, except for the weekend, which could alleviate some of the pressure on power prices. On the global stage, Brent crude oil saw a modest increase, reaching $78.05 per barrel, reflecting market reactions to heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine. Coal prices for delivery in 2025 also surged to $127.79 per tonne, a sharp rise of nearly $5 as uncertainties in global supply chains persist. Meanwhile, EU carbon prices have dropped to a six-month low, standing at €62.05 per tonne, amid strong renewable energy output, reduced liquefied natural gas consumption, and macroeconomic concerns. Currency fluctuations have remained relatively stable, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate moving slightly to 1.1942 and GBP/USD holding steady at 1.3116. Looking ahead, the UK system remains 30 million cubic meters per day short as we start the week, with three LNG cargoes expected by 18th October. Windspeeds and temperatures are forecasted to fluctuate, potentially impacting both gas and power markets. The geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Middle East, remains a significant factor to watch, with the potential to drive further market volatility in the weeks ahead.

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Today’s UK energy market opened with a balanced outlook in the gas sector, yet influences from lower wind output and ongoing nuclear outages are making waves across the power market. As of October 29th, UK gas prices at the National Balancing Point (NBP) settled at 106.70 p/therm, holding steady amid stable domestic production and consistent Norwegian flows. Production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf is expected to rise over the next few days as the final stages of maintenance wrap up, ensuring that gas supplies remain robust despite lower-than-average wind speeds forecasted for the coming weeks. Power prices for the Day-Ahead UK base shot up to £107.89/MWh, driven in part by a reduction in wind generation and maintenance outages impacting nuclear capacity and interconnectors. These outages have placed extra reliance on gas-fired power generation to meet demand. Notably, Torness 1 is scheduled for a return on November 3rd, while additional nuclear units offline for planned and unplanned maintenance are expected back in late November and early December, which should alleviate some pressure on power generation. Brent crude oil prices continue to reflect the subdued risk outlook in the Middle East, settling today at $71.42/bbl. This retreat, down from last week, is partially due to moderated geopolitical tensions and a lack of targeted energy infrastructure strikes. Coal prices have also softened, with ARA CIF for Calendar Year 2025 now at $124.46/tonne, tracking lower alongside a broad dip in oil. Carbon markets remain elevated with EUA Dec 2024 prices at €66.40/tonne. In the currency market, the pound showed minimal movement against both the euro and the dollar, standing at 1.2006 GBP/EUR and 1.2971 GBP/USD. As we move toward winter, expect gas and power prices to remain sensitive to weather forecasts, especially with anticipated colder temperatures and low wind patterns that could drive demand for gas-fired generation. With further LNG cargoes scheduled for arrival, including three en route to the UK and additional volumes bound for Northwest Europe, supply security remains strong. However, power market participants will be watching closely as the return of key nuclear units could impact pricing dynamics and reduce gas-burn requirements for electricity. Today’s market activity highlights the critical role of inter-fuel dynamics as the UK navigates seasonal demand pressures and renewable variability, with global events continuing to subtly steer sentiment. Stay tuned for further updates as the week unfolds.

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December 5th , 2024UK - The UK energy markets this morning opened to a mix of supply confidence and price fluctuations. Day-ahead gas prices at the National Balancing Point (NBP) settled at 116.25 pence per therm, marking a further softening from yesterday’s levels. This decline stems from warmer-than-seasonal temperatures and a strong LNG sendout, which continues to support supply security. UK power prices also followed the downward trend, with day-ahead baseload electricity closing at £93.48/MWh, reflecting a notable drop of £29.41 compared to the previous session. The easing was driven by declining gas prices and increased renewable contributions. Wind generation is projected to peak at 18 GW later this week, highlighting the continued variability in renewable output. In broader markets, Brent crude slipped to $72.31/bbl, while carbon prices saw modest decreases, with EUAs trading at €67.86/tonne. The UK ETS price remained steady at £36.31/tonne, signaling stability amidst a backdrop of shifting energy dynamics. Looking ahead, a colder weather pattern is expected to approach, potentially increasing energy demand. However, the substantial inflow of LNG cargoes to the UK, combined with elevated Norwegian gas nominations, positions the system well to navigate the upcoming winter challenges. Additionally, the return of a 0.6 GW nuclear unit to the grid provides further support, helping ease reliance on gas-fired power generation. Currency movements were minimal, with GBP/EUR at 1.2073 and GBP/USD at 1.2702, showing slight upticks amid steady trading. Stay tuned as we continue monitoring these developments and their implications for UK energy markets.

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As of the 3rd January 2025, the UK energy market reflects tightening conditions driven by colder temperatures, supply chain disruptions, and robust LNG inflows. Gas prices remain elevated, with the NBP Day-Ahead price at 124.50 p/therm, reflecting a marginal increase from the previous session. The UK gas system opened 10 mcm/day short this morning, with colder weather driving up demand while supply remains constrained. Although UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) terminal receipts have increased, thanks to stronger Vesterled flows and Langeled operating at full capacity, the system continues to grapple with the effects of tight market conditions and high demand. Notably, Vesterled’s ramp-up underscores the market's responsiveness to elevated prices, which reflect both the supply-demand balance and market sentiment. On the power front, Day-Ahead baseload prices settled at £106.95/MWh, marking a sharp increase from the previous trading day. This rise can be attributed to higher gas prices feeding into generation costs. The cold snap across Northwest Europe, coupled with reduced renewables output, has shifted the generation mix towards gas-fired power stations, increasing overall costs. The power sector remains under pressure as fossil fuel reliance grows during periods of low wind and solar output. LNG sendout continues to play a critical role in balancing the system, with ten LNG cargoes currently inbound to the UK. However, the recent outage at Norway’s Hammerfest LNG plant, which reduced production by 18 mcm/day, introduces potential risk, albeit minimal, to short-term supply. The duration of this outage, projected to last at least a week, could alter the market outlook if extended. Meanwhile, Brent crude prices edged higher to $75.93/bbl, reflecting stability in broader energy markets. European carbon prices also increased, with EUA Dec 2025 certificates trading at €75.19/tonne, emphasising the continued financial burden of emissions on generators. On the European front, Slovakia’s SPP has assured users of secure gas supply despite the cessation of Russian gas flows through the Sudzha pipeline. Gazprom’s inability to continue transit post-December has led to supply reallocations, forcing countries to tap into alternative sources and storage. European storage levels were reported at 72% as of 31st December, providing a buffer but highlighting potential tightness as winter progresses. Currency markets show a slight weakening of the pound, with the GBP/EUR exchange rate at 1.2031, reflecting minor volatility that may impact import costs for energy commodities. In summary, the UK energy market remains sensitive to ongoing supply challenges and temperature-driven demand surges. The interplay of LNG imports, storage withdrawals, and higher gas prices will continue to shape market movements in the days ahead.

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"Arguably, front-month UK gas delivery has been observing the same rising trend channel since Feb ’24 (please see chart at https://lnkd.in/e5yYpJJY). As you’d expect, volatility has been high over the holiday period (thin liquidity invariably means high volatility as any buy or sell orders move the market disproportionately) – though with the return of volume/liquidity, the last few days have seen prices dropping-off to reflect improved value with momentum indicators heralding the bearish move with clear divergence at the turn of the year (RSI as detailed in the chart below). As per our report on New Year’s Eve, the Ukraine/Russia transit deal is no more, and markets are still getting to grips with a revised supply outlook – though on the face of it, the widely anticipated outcome of failed negotiations was already “baked-in” to prices in the run-up to the announcement last week. Both near- and far-term prices are down again this morning, continuing yesterday’s closing session. Nonetheless, conditions are cold and still – meaning an increased reliance on gas-for-power burn and pressure on storage withdrawals, which ordinarily would drive the market higher. The fact the market is falling is a reflection of how overcooked the prices were over the Christmas break (as per our prediction). Down the curve, the outlook is more favourable with bearish key drivers for the coming weeks – higher temperatures and rising LNG arrivals. European gas storage is at 69% fullness, which is a little on the low side and reflects storage withdrawal in the face of low wind generation and colder temperatures. Europe’s reliance on LNG arrivals has gone up a notch with the end of the Ukraine/Russia transit deal, so it makes sense that arrivals are set to increase. All eyes will be on Asia’s demand for LNG going forward as Russia continues to engineer increased competition for fossil fuels between East and West. China looks to have taken delivery of less LNG M-o-M again for Dec ’24, with cargoes following the money to Europe. Geopolitically, Trump looks determined to further reduce China’s output – we’ll be keeping a close on Asia’s LNG inventories over the coming months. Back in the UK, Monthly Day-Ahead averages for Dec-24 achieved 111.389p/therm (or 3.801p/kwh). Monthly Day-Ahead averages for this month so far are inflated but falling, 121.871p/therm (or approx. 4.158p/kwh excluding non-gas)..." To read more, please head over to our Market Insight for a 1-minute summary of market drivers/price-action.

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