Georgia Sangster

Our head of Macro Strategy, John Butler, is sitting down in two weeks' time to cover our views for the year ahead, particularly on UK fiscal, the Bank of England reaction function and the implications for gilt yields, the health of the European economy, and the implications of US policy - expected to challenge some current thinking on the macro backdrop. Register here: https://lnkd.in/ewQXsCAr #macro #economics #wellingtonmanagement #outlook #fixedincome #wealthmanagement #assetmanagement

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Join us live on the 2nd December at 11am for a webinar with Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income, and Simon Prior, Fixed Income Fund Manager. They will give their 30-day assessment of the US after the Trump election, discuss how the UK is faring with the new government and the outlook for the European market.  https://lnkd.in/d3APUjSu For investment professionals only. Capital at risk. #fedreaction #fixedincome #investing

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A great flow chart from the UK Investment Association for those who want to understand which fund share class to select as 'primary'. In contrast to how some data providers default to the oldest, legacy share class, it seems very clear that one should perhaps choose a share class that is 'unbundled', and 'freely available to all investors... '. For the Marlborough Multi Cap Income Fund, this is the 'P' share class! This also covers c.99% of all fund units in issue so most representative of the returns delivered to the wider investor base.

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I often refer to select specific investment options as “assets and earnings” plays where one gains exposure to tangible assets and growing profits at the same time. Whitbread (in the FTSE 100) ticks this box for me. The shares have retreated significantly from previous highs and thus have not been part of the increased buoyancy we have witnessed in the blue chip index in the recent past. This is Premier Inns in disguise with most of the business in the UK. Capital growth potential with a growing dividend not to mention always a possibly of takeover interest, an interesting opportunity perhaps. This is not investment advice and everyone must do their own research in determining suitability.

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We’re thrilled to share that the IFSL Blackfinch NextGen Infrastructure Fund has been recognised in Morningstar's latest report for August 2024. It ranked as the #1 best performing equity infrastructure fund and overall, the 5th best-performing fund in the UK out of 3,039 funds across all asset classes. Thank you to both Blackfinch Group and Marlborough teams for their ongoing support. At Blackfinch, we are choosing to do something different than our infrastructure sector peers, so there is no reason to expect results that align with the indices. At times we may underperform, and at times we may outperform, but at all times we will do our best to think and act independently. Over longer periods, we believe we will be rewarded for taking an unconventional approach to infrastructure investing and separating ourselves from the herd. We continue to believe that the companies we hold (such as the publicly disclosed positions GFL Environmental Inc., Clean Harbors, Grenergy Renovables, TransAlta, Macquarie Technology Group, Rai Way S.p.A., American Healthcare REIT) have better business models, more properly incentivised management partners, and greater future earnings potential than the average infrastructure company. Our strategy centres on buying high quality specialist infrastructure companies prioritising capital appreciation over income, supported by ‘next generation’ growth themes – such as the energy transition, digitalisation and sustainable urbanisation – that are trading at reasonable valuations and led by well-incentivised management teams. If our analysis is sound, with time we should benefit from the dual forces of improving business fundamentals and improving sentiment, which could help the fund achieve its return objective. Disclaimer: Capital at risk. Past performance not indicative of future results. This post does not constitute any form of solicitation to buy or sell units in the fund or the companies mentioned. For UK investors only. 

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Despite some gloomy commentary of late, the US economy has avoided recession and looks resilient in the face of still-high interest rates. Julian Howard, GAM Investments’ Chief Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, suggests that a soft landing could potentially be on the cards, something that would have positive implications for stocks, and Fed policy. Read more here: https://ow.ly/SCh930sGV3E #AssetManagement #Investing #MultiAsset #USeconomy #Recession For professional investors only. Capital at risk.

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*********** READING WITH IMPACT ************ After nearly 16 years with Orbis I'm lucky enough to be taking a bit of an extended break this summer to regroup and recharge ahead of getting stuck into some of the exciting opportunities ahead. I want to use some of this time to review some of the most impactful material I've come across AND to seek out the best of what others have found impactful. By impactful I mean books/articles/essays that have meaningfully changed the way you think/act/behave. Lots of content is interesting, or provides a different perspective, but, in my experience, it's rare to find those gems which REALLY shift your lens, the mental models you use, or how you show up for family, friends and colleagues. I've included some of my all-time top hits below, and would like to tap into the enormous wisdom of my LinkedIn network to source other ideas. Please add your unique suggestions in the comments below. As an incentive, I'll compile the final list and circulate it to everyone who gets involved. Thanks - I'm excited for the journey this could take me on. Superforecasting - Tetlock The Upside of Stress - McGonigal Bounce - Syed Mindset - Dweck The Creative Act - Rubin Clear Thinking - Parish (summarises a lot of the best of others' work)

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Read the latest #fixedonbonds blog where Lloyd Harris, Head of Fixed Income, examines the potential outcomes of the US election, what these mean for the US budget deficit and in turn fixed income markets. For investment professionals only. Capital at risk. #fixedincome #bondblog #bondinvestors #uselection

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Market-moving events can highlight structural shifts underway. Last week, BlackRock’s senior investors convened at the firm’s biannual Outlook Forum to discuss how to navigate these shifts. More here 👉 https://1blk.co/3Z1isNk #marketingmaterial Capital at risk

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Good morning. My latest blog re the #budget yesterday titled Dawn of the dread which gives you an inkling of my thoughts. It covers our approach to UK assets from here

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This chart is important. Capital at risk. It shows the average rolling five-year performance relative to the index for all of Baillie Gifford’s UK-domiciled equity fund range. It illustrates that our funds have collectively outperformed over five-year periods for the vast majority of the time. For the 30-year available history, outperformance over five years has averaged +1.9% per annum (pa). The current situation is that having peaked at +9.8% pa in January 2021, the very sharp sell-off in growth equities has resulted in an underperformance of -1.9% pa for our equity fund range as a whole in the five years to the end of March 2024. We have seen such periods from January 1995 to June 1997 and September 2008 to November 2009. In both cases, strong performance recoveries followed over the next five years. There can be no guarantee that this will happen again, but we hope it will be informative for investors to see the long-term pattern of relative fund performance resulting from our investment style. It comes from this article by James Budden: https://lnkd.in/eXkRwCWw #LongTermInvesting #Cyclicality #Patience #TheLongView #ActualInvestors

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Engaging insights on four topical themes and our thoughts on some exceptional companies. These sessions last 45 minutes and are free to join.

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If UK based investing institutions remain cautious about investing in UK equities the 'market' will find a solution. As I mentioned in my last post the UK equity market is currently in run-off due to the consistent selling of UK shares by UK based investors. We are all pleading for policy makers to provide catalysts for capital to return to the UK public equity market. This they are starting to do, but it will take time to make a difference and meanwhile the 'Trump trade' is encouraging even more money into US dollar assets. So, we need more self help. We need to innovate, to find ways to create demand for UK Equities and improved price discovery. One possible way is replicating private equity in the public arena, with a good old fashioned buy and build acquisition vehicle (aka Lord Hanson, and the old Melrose team). There are lots of potential 'targets', lots of potential strategic investors, lots of existing investors who would like to keep skin in the game rather than sell out, enough reasonably priced credit, and a more accommodating set of listing and governance rules. Call this the free market equivalent of the Government's industrial strategy, with a single focus = creating wealth, by helping make UK Equities Great Again.

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NEW FEES PAPER: bfinance today published it's biennial Investment Management Fees paper, which you can download here: https://okt.to/EAld1w As market circumstances change, investment fees and costs can be re-evaluated productively. This edition of the paper focuses on three key themes that may merit careful examination in the current climate; ESG, hurdle rates, and fee compression.

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UK Financial Advisers: Question Time with Your DFM Why does the allocation to Absolute Return Strategies typically remain below 3% of a portfolio, while bonds still occupy over 30%? The standard response to this question often cites underperformance from Absolute Return funds and poor experiences with flagship offerings such as Standard Life GARS. As a result, many discretionary fund managers (DFMs) have sidelined this asset class. However, we believe this dismissal is both flawed and rooted in a lack of education and expertise in investing in Absolute Return Strategies. At Apollo, we argue that the challenges in this space stem not from the asset class itself but from misapplied approaches. Traditional equity and bond fund analysis simply cannot be repurposed to select Absolute Return managers effectively. Few DFMs have team members with direct experience in Hedge Funds or Absolute Return Strategies. Furthermore, relying on a single fund or a small number of funds to represent the category often leads to underwhelming outcomes. Our Approach: A Diversified and Skilled Multi-Manager Model Apollo takes a different path. Our Absolute Return portfolio consists of 18–25 funds, diversified across sub-sectors of the Absolute Return universe. This multi-manager strategy provides resilience and better positioning to achieve consistent results. Consider research from JP Morgan: within equities and bonds, the performance gap between top and bottom quartile managers is around 2%, leaving less room for alpha from manager selection . By contrast, in Hedge and Absolute Return Strategies, this difference exceeds 14%, making skilled manager selection a critical driver of Alpha. The Case for Rethinking Bond Allocations Meanwhile, the persistent reliance on bonds—despite their underperformance relative to cash returns over the past five years—is concerning. Bonds have not delivered net returns after fees, especially in an environment where the zero-interest rate era was never sustainable. The path of future inflation remains uncertain, shaped by factors like deglobalisation (tariffs), decarbonization, geopolitical shifts, rising deficits, and extreme government debt levels. Would you place 30% or more of your portfolio in that basket? In the U.S., pioneers like Yale’s David Swensen demonstrated the benefits of diversifying beyond traditional equities and bonds. Yet in the UK, many portfolios remain stuck in outdated 60/40 models. Proven Expertise in Absolute Return Strategies Apollo’s team brings decades of direct experience from Hedge Funds and proprietary trading desks at top-tier investment banks. The chart below illustrates the value of this expertise. If you’re curious about how Apollo consistently outperforms in this space, we’d love to share more details. Contact us to learn about the processes and strategies behind our success.

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