Dean Bubley

Long term readers will be aware that the UK telecoms market is undergoing once in a generation transformation internally as huge players are looking to join forces and customers’ demands prove ever more complex and wide-ranging. In the midst of all this upheaval, Ofcom is gearing up for a major review of the UK's wholesale broadband market, with the Telecoms Access Review (TAR) set to re-shape the regulatory landscape for 2026-2031. This comprehensive review will assess the market's effectiveness and explore potential interventions to foster competition and investment. In his latest CCS Insight blog post, my colleague Kester Mann explores the reasons for the Ofcom review including:  🔘 Building on Success: The TAR follows the successful Wholesale Fixed Telecoms Market Review (WFTMR), which fueled significant fibre deployment in the UK. 🔘 Promoting Competition: Ofcom aims to ensure a level playing field for all players in the broadband market, including Openreach and alternative network providers (altnets). 🔘 Encouraging Investment: The review will consider measures to incentivise continued investment in fibre infrastructure and expand gigabit broadband coverage. 🔘 Balancing Stakeholder Interests: Ofcom will navigate the complex task of balancing the needs of consumers, operators, and investors to ensure a thriving broadband market. To gain deeper insights into the Ofcom TAR and its potential implications for the UK broadband market, I encourage you to read Kester’s comprehensive blog post: https://lnkd.in/eGvJujxC #Telecoms #Broadband #Fibre #Regulation #Ofcom #UK #CCSInsight

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This is where delayaring makes a lot of sense for operators - both fixed and mobile - to move from capex/asset heavy to capex/asset light business. It's high time for most of them, if not already on the path. #FutureNetAsia #TWA24 #XyntacEnterprise #DTW #DTW24 #PTC25

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I've written a report on the differences and synergies between 5G Network APIs and #CPaaS, on behalf of a new client, Shabodi. The theme is "Co-existence not Convergence". The download link is in the comments. The two worlds coexist, but there is limited overlap. Both sets of APIs are valuable for CSPs and other providers. But I think that with some exceptions, they are suitable for *different* groups of developers, in different situations. (Note: I'm one of few analysts who has covered both wireless networks and CPaaS). Several previous posts covered the evolution of Network APIs, especially for #5G networks. I've been watching ongoing work relating to #CAMARA and #OpenGateway initiatives - my general stance has been that they are "necessary but not sufficient", particularly for public MNO networks. I've also been skeptical of some of the quantitative forecasting of revenues, especially for quality-on-demand and #networkslicing. A key challenge I've identified is that APIs for quality are only useful in locations with sufficient, reliable network coverage and capacity - and public 5G SA networks are very patchy, especially indoors. It's been noticeable that more discussion has been about using APIs to *create* #Private5G slices from national networks, than using APIs *inside* dedicated P5G networks for industry or other use-cases. I think the latter are more important. IMO that's the immediate opportunity for fine-grained network awareness and control: specific locations where networks have been tightly engineered for relevant applications. Factories, mines, sports venues, ports, hospitals etc. Those are not the places or applications most in need of VoIP calling or SMS messaging APIs. Most CPaaS users and platforms are completely distinct to those for (wireless) network capabilities and awareness. They focus on contact centres, customer experience, messaging, or building voice/video applications with protocols like #WebRTC and SIP. Some CPaaS providers also offer APIs for email and marketing campaign management. At the moment, the main current emphasis from 5G Network API platforms appears to be on aspects such as fraud management, numbering and SIM-swaps, location and so forth. These are more plausibly "CPaaS adjacent" although developers have lots of other choices for those as well. I've long said network-aware applications are more important than application-aware networks. So APIs which give network status data to developers, and also allow them to specify requirements such as necessary latency and bandwidth, are potentially useful - as long as they apply to the right network(s). In summary - while there are some overlaps between CPaaS and Network APIs for abstraction and enablement, they fundamentally have very different characteristics. They may coexist on broader API/XaaS platforms and aggregated marketplaces, but that will be “complementary”, not “converged”. Download the report from the link & let me know what you think.

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Our UK tenants, the operators and infrastructure companies, don’t like it when I point out the obvious truth, which is that the distortion of power from property owners to network operators resulting from the ECC 2017 harmed Britain and put it last in 5G, behind the rest of the developed world. There are now many property owners selling to us because they are tired of being mistreated. A UK individual mobile site lease has become a horrible investment and a headache for property owners. Meanwhile network operators are not very good at buying out mobile sites, because property owners have lost all trust. TIP are an obvious solution. We are funded with low-cost infrastructure money and are NOT interested in charging anything other than market rent as defined under the ECC. We are prepared to be tied down throughout our investment period. And STILL our tenants are slow to proceed with us. We are prepared to help CTIL, MBNL, Cellnex and their tenants increase 5G rollout speeds by allowing them to take full financial and operational control over the sites. If tenants don’t want to trust us then they can trust their lawyers: we are prepared to be 100% controlled. And UK property owners like our money. Thousands of them. I personally have been willing to be 100% controlled since 2009, when I founded APWireless. If tenants had taken me seriously back then they could have locked up thousands of mobile sites. I can’t remember how many times I met with CTIL, MBNL, Orange, T-Mobile (now EE), Vodafone and O2 — and none of them acted on my offer (which was made long before it was too late). After 2019 I could not control what my successors did at APWireless. Let’s not make that mistake again. Let’s tie up TIP long term and mutually benefit the UK public. There is plenty of success to be had by ALL parties: property owners get the capital they deserve, MNOs and infrastructure companies get to deliver the 5G solutions they promise while gaining 100% control over their sites, and TIP’s investors get to earn a reasonable return on infrastructure investment. Everyone wins. In the meantime, since somehow pointing out the obvious truth is unpopular with our tenants, I’ll have the Guardian do it for me. Thanks Steve!

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𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐭 𝐦𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐚𝐠𝐞: 𝐍𝐞𝐩𝐚𝐥 𝐓𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐦 𝐭𝐨 𝐮𝐩𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐬𝐲𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐦 tonight from 11 am to 6 pm. Balance recharge, Pack subscription/query could be affected that time. However, Mobile voice, data, SMS, FTTH data and TV will remain unaffected. To be safe, you could recharge your #Ntc mobile and buy required data pack ahead. https://bit.ly/3QuWMEN 𝐍𝐨𝐭𝐞: Also, if you are going to watch the Euro Cup Semifinal match of 𝐒𝐩𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐯𝐬 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 on Mobile data, please subscribe to required data volume (~2GB) in advance. BTW who do you think is the winner?

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The telecom industry is responsible for up to 2% of global carbon emissions. Network account for 90% of telco electricity consumption and RAN for 80% of this consumption. Beyond the obvious benefits of capex, opex reduction and aesthetics considerations, the neutral host networks are 38% greener and 47% more cost-effective than traditional standalone 5G deployment. Please see below the latest research from ABI Research and Boldyn Networks on the topic.

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More consolidation in the UK Fibre market with Netomnia and Brsk announcing a merger. Not a surprise given the amount of altnets in the market, and a trend that mirrors the MNO landscape of consolidation in order to pursue growth. Will be interesting to see what happens next. #connectivity #networks #merger #investment #innovation #mnos #fibre #business #enterprise #altnet #UK #fibre #property #realestate #growth #telecoms #telecommunications #technology

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Is Fixed Wireless Broadband a game changer? Recent forecasts from Omdia provide a fascinating glimpse into the shifting landscape of fixed broadband subscriptions. Over the next five years, we can anticipate an addition of approximately 200 million new subscriptions, culminating in a global total of 1.8 billion of fixed internet subscriptions. This rapid expansion highlights the evolving technological preferences of consumers seeking home internet solutions. A critical insight from the forecast is the evident decline of ADSL and cable technologies. These once-dominant options are steadily being supplanted by fiber and fixed wireless access (FWA) technologies. With a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% for fiber and an impressive 13% for FWA, it’s clear that FWA is emerging as the fastest-growing method for home internet connectivity. Despite its rapid growth, FWA is expected to remain somewhat niche, capturing around 8% of the total market share, equivalent to 124 million subscriptions by 2029. Nonetheless, this represents a doubling of FWA subscriptions within five years, underscoring its significant potential. The trends in average revenue per user (ARPU) across different technologies are equally noteworthy. The overall ARPU is expected to stabilize at around $19 per month. However, there are stark differences between technologies. FWA commands a premium, with an average ARPU of approximately $27 per month, significantly higher than fiber's $14 per month. Cable, on the other hand, remains the most expensive technology at $44 per month. This high cost likely contributes to its decline, as consumers gravitate towards more cost-effective and technologically superior alternatives. The rising prominence of FWA in the home internet market is driven by several factors. Its rapid deployment capabilities, often bypassing the need for extensive infrastructure, make it an attractive option in underserved or remote areas. Additionally, advancements in technology have enhanced the reliability and speed of FWA, making it a viable competitor to traditional wired solutions.

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The UK has a new government and a new Secretary of State for Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, Peter Kyle. At the time of writing the department's junior ministers - and specifically whoever is responsible for #telecoms and so-called "digital infrastructure" - had not yet been named, but I'll update this post when it happens . I wrote a quick thread on X yesterday about some thoughts and recommendations for the new people coming into office. These are repeated here, with a couple of edits and additions. Some recommendations for telecoms & innovation: - Don’t get hung up on specific network technologies like #5G or fibre #FTTP. There’s a wide range of alternatives & having a mix is good (for instance #satellite connectivity and #WiFi) - Be wary of numerical targets that are easy but not meaningful. You'll be given headline stats on gigabit "homes passed" or "mobile coverage" which need to be rethought. - #AI is important & shiny, but don’t ignore equally-important tech domains like connectivity & semiconductors - Don’t just listen to big companies or their lobby groups. Diversity of size & specialism is key in tech/telecom - Infra-sharing will be everywhere - wholesale networks for mobile & fibre, spectrum-sharing, datacentres etc - Ignore calls to try to tax Internet traffic, regulate interconnect or emulate the worst elements of the EU’s DMA or its white paper. Understand the criticisms - Liaise closely with colleagues involved with planning, electricity / transport infra to optimise network deployment & synergies - Be wary of large consulting companies churning out huge forecasts or parroting boilerplate views. NB the tyranny of consensus - Radio #spectrum is more important than you think. Consider if the VF/3 merger allows “national infra spectrum” as a remedy - Plenty of techs are important but overhyped. Satellite, 5G, #edgecompute, #GenAI etc. Seek out the underhyped ones - Push for collabs with US, Japan, EU, S Korea - but also don’t be scared of UK-specific approaches to regulation & policy - Avoid the word “digital”. It’s cringe - UK fibre deployment is fast-growing but a messy patchwork. Expect consolidation, encourage “open access” models - DSIT telecoms & broadband teams are good. So are many at Ofcom. Lots of tech expertise - If anyone says the word “nationalisation”, kick them out - The EU pushes agendas driven by old-school big telcos & against US tech companies. Take a different path for UK. Avoid temptation to be an asteroid that protects dinosaurs & kills mammals - Work with likeminded countries on key topics like cybersec & future #6G - Don’t be too risk-averse. Be wary of anyone citing the so-called “precautionary principle”. It’s often just Luddism & lack of weighing risks/benefits - Study the phenomena of path-dependency & tech lock-in. Keep options open & consider how to switch paths - Don't re-merge DSIT & DCMS - Reach out to independent analysts and experts 😉 Congrats & enjoy the role!

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Ofcom recently published telecoms market data for the UK. https://lnkd.in/ehJa-5Xf 🔗 It shows mobile data growth rates of only 15% over the last year. Mobile data growth rates are slowing and at a rapid rate. Interestingly, mobile revenues in the UK increased 6.6% from the same period a year earlier. ARPU increased from £12.52 in 2022 up to £13.05, bucking the trend of years of steady decline. This increase is thanks, in no small part, to inflation-linked price increases from the major operators. Historic predictions out of Ofcom in 2022 offered data growth scenarios up to 55% by now. I wonder how many MNOs considered this data when assessing the ROI of 5G implementations! The debate continues about whether 5G is actually needed by the 98% of ‘normal’ users, where 4G seems perfectly sufficient. However, one could argue that the UK is still predominantly not sufficiently 5G SA, and therefore, do 5G users experience the full benefits 5G has to offer yet? The data growth story gets skewed when looking at a global view where countries with large populations are still experiencing significant growth. Ericsson is putting numbers out like 59Gb by 2029 in Western Europe. Ofcom shows growth from Q3-Q4 2023 was only 1.5%, or 6% if annualised. So question marks arise over Ericsson’s view❓. What is apparent from Ofcom is that data growth rates in many mature markets are decreasing. What will be the new device or use case that drives growth again? Virtual reality, connected cars….? #mobile #data #telecoms

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Culprit no. 1: the new ECC, regulatory overreach that slowed Britain’s 5G roll-out to a crawl while the developed (and even some of the developing) world sprinted ahead. The U.S.: limited regulation, 95% 5G coverage across a country the size of a continent. The EU: slightly more regulation: 81% 5G coverage. The UK: dramatic regulatory overreach giving operators and infrastructure companies significant power to reduce rents without requiring that the resulting savings be used for network roll-outs: complete market collapse, 51% 5G coverage. Even Bulgaria, Costa Rica and the Philippines are doing better.

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With the focus having firmly shifted to penetration and takeup away from scaling build, delivering profitability remains a critical challenge for fibre operators and investors. Our latest whitepaper is out, with insights gleaned from our recent panel discussion

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Ericsson unveils a new #ConsumerLab research report that highlights a powerful trend: #5G is transforming event experiences, with a 20% higher share of 5G users reporting satisfaction with their connectivity compared to 4G users. The report also reveals that users are becoming increasingly discerning about their connections, prioritizing app quality and reliability 10 times more than speed alone. This shift in user preferences correlates with evolving traffic patterns at events, where data use now peaks dynamically with live-streaming and content sharing – levels only high-capacity 5G networks can support smoothly. As demand continues to grow, attendees are even willing to pay extra for a seamless experience, which is a good example of why high-performance programmable networks is the future. By enabling differentiated connectivity, operators can create tailored network experiences for different user needs – even in the most demanding scenarios – thereby opening up new avenues to monetize their networks’ capabilities. Explore the full report to learn more about how 5G is transforming connectivity at live events: https://lnkd.in/dqPSyqcS 🎯Follow us on Kaneshwaran Govindasamy & Global 5G Evolution 🎯Check out this week's conference #5g #monetization debate 👇🏽 🎯Click comment box subscribe our #youtube channel #5G #5G #connectivity #DifferentiatedConnectivity #MakeitMemorable #ericsson

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Thursday School: Spectrum Access : Improved Opportunities and Outcomes? Access to spectrum is the lifeblood of Mobile Networks. There are currently a number of initiatives in the UK and elsewhere aiming to improve access to spectrum for non-MNOs, largely recognising that these mechanisms have positive effects of society. The mechanisms vary, from CBRS, Local Access Licensing, Campus Spectrum, Shared Access (Lightly Licensed) and now new initiatives in Spectrum Sandbox. Looking, for example, at the proliferation and use of Shared Access Spectrum, we can see that the numbers and distribution are broadly good. 890 - mostly outdoors - licenses issued right across the UK. But what are they used for? The major use is different slants of Private Networks. Private Networks add coverage and capacity in unserved and underserved locations. They maybe Neutral Host Networks – deploying publicly accessible spectrum – Host Private Networks – deploying spectrum for exclusive use of the deploying body or landlord – or a Hybrid, deploying spectrum for both. For Neutral Host, integration with MNO systems and processes is needed. Freshwave’s Omni solution announced yesterday is an example of this, as well as Shared Access, Boldyn Networks, Dense Air, Cellnex UK, Wireless Infrastructure Group, NET CS and many others. For Host Private Networks, integration with Enterprise IT systems and processes is needed. Industrial and FWA are 2 examples of this. For Hybrid, it’s clearly both. A campus network could be a great example, opening up Private Land for Public Mobile Access, but also allowing connection and processing of private data, such as sensor data, CCTV cameras (optionally including Video Analytics/Computer vision). But it’s clear from measures to further improve access, that the spectrum access is adding value and will continue to do so!  #InvisibleInfrastructure #EveryDaysaSchoolDay #Mobile 🤳🏼 #Telecommunications Previous Post: https://lnkd.in/epakF_6T

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Following on from a comment by William Webb on yesterday’s post and article about #mobile wholesale, I came up with a possible scenario for how we might get to #openaccess #5G by non-regulatory means. I wonder if maybe an adventurous private equity company, utility or fibre telco makes an acquisition of an established MNO and its spectrum assets, and then does something interesting... For instance, imagine a scenario where the UK’s CMA stopping the proposed VF/3UK merger for competition reasons. (I think that would be a bad move, but not unlikely). But then, let’s say that a player like CityFibre raises more capital and buys 3UK instead, spinning off its retail business. It could then offer both FTTP and cellar wholesale - maybe just as an MVNO operation, but perhaps something more sophisticated for its ISP customers. This is all completely hypothetical - but it could be a way to transform the industry the same way FTTP has shaken up legacy wireline/cable markets Link to previous post & article: https://lnkd.in/eCNt_s_K

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Thinking outside the box for rural connectivity - UK's SRN - a role model of a new collaborative digital divide gap-fill strategy for Canada to consider? The UK SRN - or "Shared Rural Network" is a variant among a class of collaborative multi-carrier "shared network" or "neutral host" models in telecom, and an interesting approach that could work to finally beat #Canada's #chronic #rural #digital #divide. New innovative solutions for Canada to consider vs. more of the same old status-quo.. Vodafone's 200 new rural #cellular sites serve multiple carriers in the UK's SRN in a creative #sharedaccess & Public-Private-Partnership (P3) investment approach, and in areas that would have been still left behind with the status quo. Interesting Vodafone article below that shows international carriers *can* operate successfully within such shared models. For Canadians unfamiliar with the approach (since we've had essentially one legacy vertically-integrated model used in Canada for the past 40 years of telecom regulation) I recommend a quick read of this Vodafone experience article, & also I recommend a read of UK OFCOM's recent "Connected Nations" report (see link below).. Innovation & new approaches can help more quickly bridge Canada's longstanding rural & First Nations digital divide & 911 access gaps. https://lnkd.in/gFQBpbMw? #newsolutions #beatthestatusquo #ISED #CRTC #regulatory #spectrum #innovation #sharednetworks #sharedruralnetwork #newsolutions #digitaldivide #ruralbroadband #ruralconnectivity #ruraleconomy #Canadasdigitaldivide #Canada #Ontario #FirstNations #telecom #communications #telecommunications #4G #5G #6G #PSBN #thefutureisnow #Northerncommunities #connectivity #911dispatch #infrastructure #ruralsolutions #newpaths #communitysafety #digitaleconomy #911accessforall

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The Unseen Dimensions of Fixed Wireless Access Traffic Surge I’ve been diving into the latest Ericsson Mobility Report, and there’s a standout trend that strike me: the incredible growth of Fixed Wireless Access traffic. By 2029, FWA traffic is expected to reach around 150 exabytes per month. That's not just a big number; it's huge! surpassing the combined traffic of 2G, 3G, and 4G, and accounting for a substantial slice of the 5G pie. This isn't just growth; it's a paradigm shift. The evolution of FWA is fascinating because it reshapes how we think about network deployment and management. While FWA positions itself as a robust competitor in the home broadband market, it introduces complex challenges for network management. The data consumption of FWA-enabled devices is significantly higher, often three to four times that of a typical smartphone. This puts interesting questions about network load and capacity, particularly as we push the limits of 5G infrastructure. Are our current strategies and technologies equipped to handle this surge? This isn’t just about scaling up; it’s about smart scaling. As FWA becomes a dominant force, Telco´s network planning, deployment, and optimization strategies need to be reevaluated and perhaps, reengineered. https://lnkd.in/gSa5XPPR

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Download the report on CPaaS API vs Network APIs     This report, written by Dean Bubley at Disruptive Analysis, clears the industry's confusion about CPaaS APIs vs. #NetworkAPIs and explains their roles in unleashing programmable network capabilities.

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