David Watson

We have today launched our annual Gas Winter Outlook. Each year, this report outlines how we see the gas system’s capacity in Great Britain, as well as pressure points and overall resilience for the upcoming winter. We expect gas demand will remain similar to last year. Great Britain's diverse and flexible gas supplies position us well to manage the colder weather ahead. What remains paramount is the role gas plays in our energy system. Our report found that last year, gas accounted for over 50% of Great Britain’s electricity generation between high-demand periods like late November to early December. As we work towards incorporating renewables and other sources of green energy into our wider energy system, gas’ vital role in the energy system cannot be understated, as it continues to prove essential in providing businesses and industries with the energy they need. Working closely with our cross-industry partners, I am confident in our abilities at National Gas to deliver the energy Great Britain needs this winter – keeping the lights on, industries fuelled and homes warm. Gas remains critical in this effort as we transition towards cleaner alternatives. #SecuringBritainsEnergy Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eC6WFgXf

184

1 Comment

A few early thoughts from the first two sessions at the Energy Live Consultancy Conference in Manchester today… #ELCC2024 📑 Energy policy Consensus from the stage that energy policy continues to be complex in places, and I’d argue simple in others. For large energy end users there is definitely a need for more clarity on changes in policy and what it means to them and them specifically. That’s where people like me come in, calmly and methodically translating policy changes into specific client impacts because there’s a bit of a void in the marketplace. 🛜 Market wide half hourly settlement (MHHS) Sounds like suppliers are still in the process of preparing to offer tariffs that take advantage of MHHS. For me though that’s not much of an exciting prospect. For years and years suppliers have offered seasonal time of day tariffs (STOD) and I can’t see how this is different. I’m still in the world where all suppliers need to lift the overall levels of customer service for existing tariffs rather than launch new products that don’t add value. That will pay greater dividends than new MHHS tariffs. Having said that MHHS is important for my next point… ♻️ Net zero investment A question came from the audience about the challenges for the hospitality sector and the difficulty in investing in energy efficiency and net zero. I heard a comment that it’s not possible to shift the time of day that the sector uses energy and also that payback of investment is too long, a period of 15 years was mentioned. I’m going to dispute both points. With a commercial battery it is possible to move consumption from day to night with a payback of less than 4 years. Take a look at ESME Energy for example. 🌊 Forthcoming data tsunami Sumit Bose used the phrase ‘data tsunami’ in one of his questions to the panel. He’s right, there’s a huge amount of data that can be used to enrich client understanding. Let’s not lose sight of the fact that we still have issues in the industry with some of the most basic data points e.g. opening and closing reads. That’s been an issue for decades and it remains that way creating lasting knock on effects in invoicing.

24

2 Comments

From April 2025, eligible EIIs can receive a 60% exemption from the Third Party Costs (TPCs) related to using the GB electricity grid. We explain the exemptions and cost breaks in our latest article 👇

7

Really value how Energy Link Ltd takes a plain English approach to explaining the impact of dispatchable demand versus voluntary industrial demand response, and what this means for price signals in the #market in the move to greater #renewable #electricity

13

1 Comment

Latest data from Ofgem shows a continued increase in domestic energy debt: ➡️ New peak of £3.7bn ➡️ Second-highest in-quarter increase of £387m ➡️ Industry debt has increased for 7 consecutive quarters ~£243m per quarter ➡️ 74% (£2.8bn) total debt has no arrangement to repay in place ➡️ New peak average balance of £1,094 per customer Given the time lag in this data, this will only confirm what energy suppliers already see day-to-day but it really hits home when you start to dig in to the data and as suppliers get ready to support customers this coming winter.

58

5 Comments

UK Energy debt reached a new high of £3.8bn as of Q3-24, up £0.9bn in a year. Where 75% of this debt has no repayment arrangement in place. Suppliers must stay in control and focus on customer support throughout this challenging environments. 2025 is a year of opportunities for businesses that prioritise their credit management process. By proactively managing risk, optimising cash flow and offering right support to their customers to turn the economic challenges into competitive advantages.

4

For over two decades, the UK has been a key market for us — and we are dedicated to the country, with ambitious plans for deepening our engagement and making transformative investments.    With the announcement of a new Industrial Strategy focused on clean energy as a key growth sector, the new government wants to play a constructive, strategic role in the economy. Working in partnership with the private sector to drive forward its mission for economic growth and the ambitious plan to achieve clean power by 2030. This week’s International Investment Summit in London provided a valuable opportunity to discuss this with government officials, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and industry executives.    As the leading power generator and a leading renewables developer in the UK, we are already generating electricity for around 12 million homes with an installed capacity of almost 10 GW.     With 2.2 GW of renewables currently under construction across offshore and onshore wind, solar, and storage, we intend to invest around €8 billion net until the end of this decade in developing clean energy projects in the UK and further strengthening our presence. Meanwhile, we are helping to unlock a green economy in the UK by generating high-quality jobs, strengthening supply chains, and fostering thriving local communities.    I would like to thank everyone involved in the organisation of this excellent summit, as well as Prime Minister Keir Starmer, State Secretary Ed Miliband from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, and Jonathan Reynolds MP, Secretary of State for Business and Trade, Sarah Jones, Minister for Industry, and Eluned Morgan, First Minister of Wales, for the valuable exchange. 📷: Jonathan Brad /PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo

444

11 Comments

What are you paying for? Third Party Costs (TPCs) now make up 59% of your energy bill. Understand the outlook for each of the key TPCs, plus the impact of commodities on energy bills, in our new Electricity Prices Explained summary guide 👉 https://lnkd.in/dThsAVxb Drax Energy Solutions

5

One of the key findings on low carbon energy production in today's Future Energy Scenarios is: "Negative emissions with power BECCS from 2030 onwards are essential to achieving net zero power." This is alongside rapid acceleration in the deployment of low carbon generation and flexible technologies. But, ultimately negative emissions are required in the power sector to offset emissions from hard-to-decarbonise energy uses. Drax Group wants to work with government to grow the economy and deliver a net zero electricity system by 2030. Read more from our CEO Will Gardiner below 👇

7

🌍🔌 Understanding UK SME Energy Contracts: The Hidden Costs 🔍💡 As a UK SME, managing energy contracts can be a daunting task, especially when hidden commissions are quietly hiking up your prices. At Digital Energy Revolution Ltd, we're committed to transparency and ensuring you get the best deal without any hidden costs. Our commission-free service empowers your business to take control of your energy expenses. 💪📉 Did you know you can find out how much commission is in your contract? Simply check the contract you signed up to; in most cases, it will be in a p/kWh format. You might be surprised by how much it works out to be! 🤯 Let's break down the barriers to better energy management and keep your business running efficiently and cost-effectively. 🚀 #SME #EnergyContracts #HiddenCosts #Transparency #BusinessSavings #UKBusiness #EnergyManagement #DigitalEnergyRevolution #NoCommission #BusinessGrowth #SustainableBusiness #EnergyEfficiency #CostSavings #UKSME #BusinessTips

1

#Energy markets in the UK are facing an interesting turn, with shifting weather conditions and fluctuating renewable output adding complexity to the landscape. Over the next week, temperatures are set to rise by 7°C, which could sharply reduce demand for heating. This shift is expected to create bearish pressure on UK gas contracts delivering in the coming days, as less energy will be required for heating across the nation. At the same time, the UK’s wind power generation is forecast to remain 10% below seasonal norms for week 38. This lower-than-expected wind output could result in bullish impacts on prompt UK energy prices, with increased demand for other generation sources to fill the gap. It’s a trend worth watching as we head into the colder months. The UK gas grid opened 10 mcm long this morning, and is projected to close in a similar position. This oversupply may contribute to a bearish sentiment in NBP pricing. The day-ahead gas price dropped by 2.34% to 86.21 p/th, reflecting this trend, while day-ahead power prices saw a sharp 5.89% increase, reaching £84.80/MWh, highlighting the volatility in power markets. As we approach the end of the year, contracts for Q4-24 gas and power have both seen declines, with gas down by 3.07% to 91.08 p/th and power falling by 2.40% to £80.04/MWh. Similarly, Q1-25 gas has dipped by 2.80%, indicating that the market is pricing in less risk as we move into the winter season. With shifting weather forecasts and uncertainty in renewable output, the energy market remains as dynamic as ever. Stay tuned for further developments in the UK energy market as we navigate these changes.

12

2 Comments

Winter Fears Loom as UK Energy Markets Surge - UK energy markets saw a strong upward trend today. Front-month UK Power surged by 2.29%, closing at £76.00. This rise is driven by growing demand forecasts and concerns over tightening supply as winter approaches. Market participants are closely watching how this will impact energy costs in the coming months. In the gas market, front-month NBP prices rallied, finishing at 89.95p, a 2.41% increase. The gas rally reflects uncertainty surrounding global LNG supplies, with particular attention on Europe’s storage levels. This rise is expected to continue if supply disruptions persist through the colder season. Carbon markets saw more mixed results, with December 2024 EUAs inching up to €66.54, a modest 0.06% gain. On the other hand, UKAs performed more strongly, closing at £42.52, a 1.84% rise. Industrial demand and expectations of tighter supply in the near term are supporting these gains in the carbon markets. Brent crude oil prices also experienced growth, closing at $71.50, a 0.62% increase. Oil markets remain volatile, with OPEC+ production cuts and global economic conditions continuing to affect prices. These factors, coupled with supply disruptions, are shaping a complex outlook for the remainder of the year. Globally, attention is focused on Australia’s Ichthys LNG plant, which remains at reduced capacity. With both liquefaction trains running below normal, full production is not expected until early November. This development is likely to put additional pressure on global LNG prices, especially in Asia and Europe. As winter approaches, energy traders will be keeping a close watch on supply conditions. Any further disruptions or demand spikes could push prices higher, making energy cost management critical in the months ahead. The market is bracing for a potentially volatile winter season.

8

Daily Energy Market Update – 6th September 2024 As we look ahead to next week, temperatures across Britain are forecast to dip significantly, with averages dropping as low as 4°C below seasonal norms. Expect temperatures to hover around 10°C, which could put upward pressure on UK gas prices. Colder weather typically drives higher heating demand, potentially increasing short-term market volatility. In contrast, wind power generation is set to exceed seasonal expectations by over 20% during the first part of next week. This surge in wind output may contribute to a bearish trend in prompt UK energy prices. However, as the week progresses, wind generation is expected to fall back in line with seasonal norms, which could stabilise the market by the latter half of the week. Globally, the energy landscape is also shifting. Egypt has announced plans to purchase 20 cargoes of LNG starting in October, marking its first imports of the fuel in years as it prepares for the winter season. This move could have a bullish impact on near-curve UK gas prices, as potential supplies might be diverted away from the European continent, tightening the market. In terms of pricing movements, Day-Ahead gas prices have seen a dip, trading at 85.90 p/th, a 3.14% decrease from the previous day. Power prices on the Day-Ahead market have also softened, currently at £76.18/MWh, down by 0.98%. Meanwhile, Brent Crude remains relatively steady at $72.69 per barrel. Looking at the UK gas grid, it is expected to end the day with a surplus of 4.44 million cubic meters (mcm). This oversupply could add further bearish pressure to the Within-Day National Balancing Point (NBP) contract, as market participants anticipate a well-supplied system in the near term. These shifts in temperature, wind generation, and global LNG demand are likely to drive key market movements in the coming week. For a more detailed view of the energy market or to discuss how these changes may affect your business, feel free to reach out to our trading desk.

6

UK Energy Prices Pump as Supply Risks Loom: Gas, Power, and Renewables Face Winter Challenges - 30.09.24. Today’s UK energy market opened with modest gains in both gas and power prices. The NBP Day-Ahead gas price settled at 91.50 p/therm, reflecting a 1.70 p/therm increase from the previous session. This price movement is driven by concerns over supply constraints, with Norwegian production still facing challenges, particularly at Nybro and Kristin facilities. These issues, coupled with a lack of LNG regasification nominations, have tightened the UK system, which opened 12 mcm/day short this morning. Flows from Norway through Langeled are lower, and Vesterled is currently not exporting gas. The overall gas flow was measured at 290.5 mcm/day, the highest recorded exit nominations in over a month, yet the market remains wary as the risk of further supply disruptions continues, especially with winter approaching. In terms of storage, no withdrawals from medium-range storage (MRS) sites were observed, while Rough continues with steady injections. Warmer temperatures for early October are forecast, with a potential peak on October 6th, pushing temperatures nearly two degrees above seasonal norms. Windspeeds are predicted to stay above average early this week, offering a boost to renewable generation. However, a dip in wind generation is expected between October 2nd and 5th. The UK nuclear output remains below full capacity, and further reductions are expected, with output dropping to 4.0 GW by the weekend. Power prices saw similar upward momentum, with the Day-Ahead Base price settling at £76.80/MWh, a significant increase compared to Friday. Day-Ahead Peak prices were even more pronounced, rising to £86.01/MWh. Spot contracts saw the largest gains, driven by the weather forecast and ongoing concerns over gas supply. Looking ahead, power prices for Q125 continue to rise, with the market pricing in potential further supply squeezes as winter progresses. In the wider energy market, Brent crude oil for November delivery settled at $71.98 per barrel, ticking up by $0.38. Coal prices for delivery in 2025 also showed some movement, rising by $2.77 to $123.77/tonne, as global markets continue to balance supply and demand. As we head into October, market participants are preparing for the onset of colder weather and the increased demand that will follow. Supply risks from Norwegian fields and global LNG flows are being carefully monitored, while renewable generation, particularly wind, will play a critical role in offsetting these supply concerns. With temperatures expected to dip below average after October 8th, the balance of supply and demand in the UK energy market will likely tighten further. Traders and stakeholders will continue to watch geopolitical developments, weather forecasts, and the ongoing challenges in gas and power supply as we move towards the end of the year.

10

                 Morning Briefing 13/11/2024 Day ahead (DA)/Intraday   ·Demand is currently at approx. 38.9GW and due to peak this evening at 41.8GW. ·DA markets auctioned between £84 - £159 yesterday for today. ·Baseload auctioned at @ £113.00 in the 1hr and £111.24 in the 30min auction. ·Wind generation is currently at 4.0W and due to stay at similar levels throughout the day before climbing up to 13.5GW tomorrow. Solar is due to peak at 4.5GW at 11am. ·Current intraday power price at time of writing was £126.99/MWh with gas providing 59.2%/21.38GW, wind providing 14.7%/5.30GW, solar providing 2.4%/0.87GW and nuclear providing 13.3%/4.80GW of UK demand. ·DA gas is currently trading at 109.00p/th (3.72p/KWh) ·DA power is currently trading at £107.00/MWh (10.70p/KWh)   Month ahead (Dec 24) ·Dec NBP gas is currently down 1.90% at 110.29p/th (3.76p/KWh). ·Dec TTF gas is currently down 2.50% at €43.10MWh. ·Dec UK Baseload currently at £92.00/MWh (9.20p/KWh) ·UK gas prices were mixed yesterday, rising and falling throughout the day, with the DA price up 1.00% as some below normal temps gave some support to prices. Along the curve, the Q1 25 contract was up 1.53% as the increased gas demand for heating meant storage stocks were being withdrawn and kept the market on its toes.    ·UK power prices were also mixed, with the DA price down just 0.07% as forecast renewables and demand looked to stay at similar levels today. Along the curve, contracts were mixed, with the Q1 25 contract up 0.59% as the forecast of some colder weather next week, although the forecast of surging wind power helped to keep a lid on some prices. ·Ofgem has approved five undersea energy projects to enhance the UK’s clean energy and energy security, potentially positioning it as a net exporter by 2030 - three of them are interconnectors that will add nearly 3GW of capacity by linking the UK with Germany, Ireland, and Scotland ·According to Gassco AS, there are no unplanned outages this morning with total exports at 345.0mcm. ·Oil prices were slightly up this morning, underpinned by signs of near term supply tightness but held near their lowest in two weeks, a day after OPEC downgraded its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025.   ·Latest forecasts show potential for temps next week to be below seasonal norms. ·There are currently 3 LNG cargoes due by 25th November. ·UK Gas prices as of Tuesdays close -  o   Month ahead 112.43p/th (3.84p/KWh) up 1.69% DoD* o   Q1 25 111.96p/th (3.82p/KWh) up 1.53% DoD o   Summer 25 103.73p/th (3.54p/KWh) up 1.13% DoD ·UK Power prices as of Tuesdays close – o   Month ahead £92.30/MWh (9.23p/KWh) up 0.49% DoD* o   Q1 25 £95.43MWh (9.54p/KWh) up 0.59% DoD o   Summer 25 £80.18MWh (8.02p/KWh) down 0.11% DoD *DoD = Day on Day All prices and info correct at time of writing. Eco Logic Partners Jason Gary Martin Karl Lucas Jo David Chart - e*star #energy #trading #power #gas #lng #winter

4

With UK Members of Parliament of all parties being sworn into the House of Commons today, collaboration between business, policymakers and regulators has never been more important for the energy transition. Transformation at the scale and pace of the new Government’s ambitions will require a genuine partnership that sees all of us working together.   With that in mind, here are four things the Government should prioritise to accelerate the pace of decarbonisation:  1. Set a clear strategy for the energy system, aligned to a long-term industrial strategy. 2. Accelerate clean energy infrastructure delivery through ambitious reforms on planning and grid connections. It was good to see the Chancellor take the first step on planning reform yesterday but more will be needed. 3. Partner with industry to build supply chain capacity and a skills pipeline. 4. Create the right governance and partnerships to drive net zero delivery, growth and jobs.   If we get this right, there will be huge opportunities for economic growth, jobs, security of supply and lower bills. At National Grid, we are already delivering the largest overhaul of the networks in generations, investing over £30bn in the UK’s energy future in the next 5 years.   I am looking forward to working with the new Secretary of State and the new UK government to continue to drive forward the UK’s energy transition.

922

18 Comments

Pleased to read this quote this morning from Jonty Haynes in Current News regarding the ESO FES 2024. “It needs to be something that benefits consumers and the energy system and it probably needs to be something that is not people manually turning off their washing machine.” Demand Side Response happening Automatically in peoples homes for me is a 'no-brainer'... the EV remains the biggest source of flexible load in the home, and are available for vast periods of the day at a low marginal cost Vs static BESS. Coordinating the fleet of BEVs crucially gives us a huge level of granularity to service both the Local Flex and National Flex needs that will arise in the next 5-10 years as more LCTs make their way into people's homes. The technology is already here for truly "Smart" charging, coordinated with other home assets like Solar & Batteries, that means V1G/V1H can be the work-horse for getting the most flexibility to grid operators in the immediate term, until V2G/V2X technologies come down in purchase costs. https://lnkd.in/dfW8rRvE

5