David Linton

🌍 Global Espresso: Your Weekly Brew of Market Insights! ☕ At Zilla Capital, we keep a close eye on the latest trends shaking global markets. Here's what you need to know from this week's #GlobalEspresso: 1️⃣ OPEC+ Holds the Line!⛽ The cartel delays supply increases in a bold move to stabilize falling oil prices. Is this enough to keep the market balanced? 2️⃣ Egypt’s Key Role in Europe's Energy Puzzle🔥 As Europe races to diversify its gas supply, Egypt is emerging as a pivotal player. What’s next in this energy reshuffle? 3️⃣ U.S. Job Numbers Disappoint: What’s Next for the Fed?📉With weaker-than-expected jobs data, the Fed faces tough choices. 4️⃣ Turkey’s Economic Plan Signals Steady Normalization📊 The latest Medium-Term Economic Program reveals Ankara’s commitment to economic stability. But how realistic are the targets? #ZillaCapital #OPEC #Egypt #GasMarkets #FederalReserve #Turkey #GlobalEconomy #MarketInsights #Egypt #Europe #Oil

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Never underestimate tail risks in markets. In particular energy markets. U.S. Energy Information Administration’s short term energy outlook points to softening #crude #oil prices driven by balanced fundamentals going into 2H 2024. Ample factors at play to trigger tail risk events. Oil traders, consumers, & portfolio managers with exposure to oil have to tread carefully.

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Energy markets are in focus as #oilprices climb. #WTI crude has pushed above $76, buoyed by strong U.S. economic data and Middle East tensions. Meanwhile, natural #gas is holding steady above $2.12. It's always interesting to watch the complex interplay of economic health, geopolitical risks, and supply concerns. Even more so when you consider the potential broader economic implications of energy costs, which often impact everything from transportation to manufacturing. https://loom.ly/zzljEnQ

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**Market Weekend Summary Report - Oil and Gas** **Overview:** The oil and gas market experienced fluctuations over the weekend due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. Geopolitical concerns in the Middle East have heightened anxiety among investors, leading to a volatile market environment. **Israel-Iran Tensions:** The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have raised concerns about potential disruptions in the region's oil supply chain. Recent incidents, including cyberattacks and sabotage, have added to the uncertainty, impacting market sentiment. **Impact on Oil Prices:** The uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict has contributed to a bullish sentiment in the oil market. Investors are closely monitoring the situation for any developments that could disrupt oil production or transportation in the region. **Outlook for Next Week:** The oil and gas market is expected to remain volatile in the coming week as the situation between Israel and Iran unfolds. Any escalations or de-escalations in tensions could significantly impact oil prices. Traders are advised to stay vigilant and closely monitor geopolitical developments for potential trading opportunities. **Conclusion:** The geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are a key factor influencing the oil and gas market. Investors are advised to exercise caution and stay informed about the evolving situation to make informed decisions in the coming week.

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OIL EDGES HIGHER (Reuters) - Oil prices firmed slightly on Monday as traders weighed support from expected summer demand and geopolitical tensions against a stronger dollar. Read More: https://hubs.la/Q02C-Nrd0 Brent crude futures were up 22 cents, or 0.3%, at $85.46 a barrel by 1053 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 19 cents, or 0.2%, at $80.92. Both benchmarks gained about 3% last week for their second consecutive weekly gains. #energy #oilgas #oilandgas #oiprices #oilandgascompanies

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Oil Holds at Highest Levels Since October. 'The outlook remains bullish', George Pavel, General Manager at Naga.com Middle East, said in a market analysis sent to Rigzone. http://ow.ly/1shP105W3xf

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New Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Energy Comment discusses gas monetization in Turkmenistan. 👉 Link to paper: https://lnkd.in/eHZt8Qkh Key points: 💠 Turkmenistan’s weak investment climate has made transforming the country’s solid gas reserves base into export earnings beyond the existing sales to China more difficult. 💠 Barriers to foreign capital and a reliance on public finance to support major national investment projects are additional headwinds. While external factors are out of Turkmenistan’s control, some of the internal challenges can be solved. 💠 There is now a growing understanding in Ashgabat that the country needs to look into less capital-extensive resource monetization tactics. 💠 The expansion of export-oriented fertilizer and petrochemical industries, as well as the more active use of existing pipeline interconnectors with Iran to facilitate gas swaps are likely to gain momentum as Turkmenistan’s new gas monetization strategy evolves. #Azerbaijan #Caspian #China  #FDI #Fertilizer #GasExports #GasReserves #Gazprom #Iran #Kazakhstan #Petrochemicals #Russia #Swap #Turkmengaz #Turkmenistan #Uzbekistan

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BP sells part of the gas pipeline with Azerbaijani gas to TAP. BP sells part of its share to the American Apollo, a subsidiary that owns 20% of the TAP gas pipeline. Apollo Global Management has bought a stake in BP Pipelines TAP Limited, which owns a fifth of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), from BP for $1 billion. Apollo acquired a non-controlling stake in a BP subsidiary, and neither Reuters nor Bloomberg specified which one. It is only known that BP will not lose its status as a controlling shareholder in this project. TAP, we recall, is part of the Southern Gas Corridor, which connects Azerbaijan with southern European countries via Turkey. The capacity of the Turkish part of TANAP is 16 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and TAP, which goes to Greece and Italy, is 10 billion cubic meters per year. The EU wants to expand TAP, especially against the backdrop of problems with pipeline gas supplies from the Russian Federation, but investors are still not found. And Azerbaijan is ready to expand supplies, but not to invest, because it sees that Europe with its “green policy” does not guarantee stable demand for gas in the future. As for the deal itself, they want to close it in the fourth quarter of this year. The income that BP will receive from the deal with Apollo will go towards the overall offset of the British company's asset sale this year. BP is going to earn $2-3 billion in total from optimizing its assets - this is its target as part of its work to improve its financial performance. Although BP has paid off significant amounts of debt in recent years, its balance sheet is still weaker than its competitors. But Bloomberg reminds us that the deal for part of TAP is taking place against the backdrop of falling oil prices and a reduction in the financial capabilities of oil companies. American Apollo, in turn, is buying up shares of large European companies: it has already acquired parts of Air France, Intel and Vonovia. https://lnkd.in/eHxyPFFW

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Within the framework of COP29, Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov met with Secretary General of the OPEC Haitham Al-Qais. The Secretary General stated that Azerbaijan plays a constructive role in regulating the global oil market. Indeed, since 2016, Azerbaijan has joined the regulation of global oil markets in the OPEC+ format and has never violated the monthly production quota. * Azerbaijan produced 30.1 million tons of oil and condensate by the end of 2023. This year, liquid hydrocarbon production volumes will decrease to 29 million tons. #azerbaijani_oil

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Gazprom's recoverable gas reserves exceed 27 trillion cubic meters of gas. Most of Gazprom's reserves are concentrated in the Yamal and offshore fields. Gazprom's recoverable gas reserves currently exceed 27 trillion cubic meters, and liquid hydrocarbons - more than 1.5 billion tons, said Deputy Head of the Department of the gas concern Sergei Neresov at the session of the Eastern Economic Forum. He noted that most of the reserves are located in the depths of Yamal - 44% of all the reserves of the concern are in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Area. Another 31% are in offshore fields, 12% are in the eastern part of the Russian Federation. At the same time, Gazprom's geological gas reserves are estimated at almost 7 trillion cubic meters, according to liquid hydrocarbon reserves - at 1.1 billion tons. According to Neresov, the growth point for the resource base of the gas giant now is becoming hard-to-recover reserves (HTRs), the development of HTR production technologies in the conditions of declining production in the northwestern part of Siberia is especially important. https://lnkd.in/ewG8VPbq

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Fitch Ratings has assigned S.N.G.N. Romgaz S.A.'s (BBB-/Stable) proposed notes an expected 'BBB-(EXP)' senior unsecured rating. Fitch has also assigned Romgaz's Euro Medium Term Note (EMTN) programme an expected 'BBB-(EXP)' senior unsecured rating. The SCP reflects Romgaz's dominant position in Romania's natural gas market, upstream production growth potential from its Neptun Deep and Caragele reservoir developments and a conservative financial policy.

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5 Comments

𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗢𝗶𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗧𝗶𝗴𝗵𝘁𝗲𝗻𝘀 𝗔𝗺𝗶𝗱 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 🛢️🌍 𝟭. 𝗨𝗦 𝗦𝗮𝗻𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝘂𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗮 🇺🇸 Over 270 oil tankers were sanctioned, targeting the "shadow fleet" and major energy firms Gazprom Neft & Surgutneftegas (25% of Russian exports). Russian crude shipments hit a 1-year low, further tightening supply. 𝟮. 𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝗣𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗕𝗮𝗻 🇨🇳 Shandong Port bans US-sanctioned tankers, restricting nearly 2 MMbpd of sanctioned crude. Increased demand for unsanctioned barrels, amplifying price pressures. 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗢𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗼𝗼𝗸 US sanctions and Chinese restrictions are intensifying global supply constraints, driving demand for alternative crude sources and keeping upward pressure on oil prices. Access Full article: https://lnkd.in/e5Tki4kE Written by Rory Johnston Commodity Context published on EklipX Research Source Chart: Bloomberg, US Treasury Department Thoughts on how this reshapes the market? 💬 #OilMarkets #Energy #Geopolitics #Sanctions #CrudeOil

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