Peel Hunt

Over the past three years, the US has defied worries that a slump may be imminent – most notably during 2022 and 2023 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) aggressively tightened the monetary screws to curb surging inflation. However, US President Donald Trump’s erratic on-again-off-again approach to anti-growth trade tariffs, combined with a sudden weakening of economic data, has markets asking - is the US economy merely slowing or heading into recession? The worries have badly jarred market confidence and triggered a bout of selling in US equities. Read the full article by Kallum Pickering here: https://lnkd.in/ef3eMr4c

Anthony Leatham for The Telegraph: Private markets can be hard to access. Typically illiquid and opaque in nature, the defining investment under the alternatives banner has rewarded investors who have committed capital over the long term, offering a 14pc annualised total return since 2001 – double that of the FTSE All-Share’s 7pc, according to recent data from the British Private Equity & Venture Capital Association. However, it cannot be denied that the last two years have been more challenging. Global uncertainties and macroeconomic conditions have weighed heavily on fundraising and realisation volumes, with private equity valuations under pressure as a result. But in the context of a more benign financing environment, we are seeing signs of a rebound in dealmaking, and the flywheel effect of increased exit activity is likely to be an important catalyst for the sector. Not only are we seeing a turning point in market conditions and transactional activity, but we also note that an increasing proportion of the fastest-growing businesses in the world are private. According to a PwC report from the end of 2024, the combined valuation of the top 100 “unicorns” – privately held start-ups valued at over $1bn (£780,000m) – has reached over $2 trillion, with fintech, artificial intelligence, information technology and e-commerce standing as the key sectors. Read the full article here: https://lnkd.in/e64pgktP #investmenttrusts

In this podcast Charles Hall & Kallum Pickering discuss with Philip Hammond, Chancellor of the Exchequer (2016-19), the complexity of managing an economy during a period of tight budgetary constraints, the importance of international relationships at a time of heightened risks and concern, and the need to spend on defence. Philip Hammond spent almost a decade in the Cabinet, starting as Transport Secretary (2010-11), serving as Defence Secretary (2011-14), becoming Foreign Secretary (2014-16) and finally Chancellor of the Exchequer (2016-19). During much of his time in office he had to serve against a background of austerity and the challenges of a coalition government, as well as address a black hole in defence spending and the economic and political fallout from the Brexit vote. Listen to the full podcast below: https://lnkd.in/eDSA4idj https://lnkd.in/eZeA2Kkq

There's no trade off between Net Zero policies and economic growth. Or so we're told. But extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and when Kallum Pickering over at Peel Hunt decided to dig into the data, he found quite the opposite. Indeed, the shocking drop in the UK's available electricity since 2005 - perhaps a product of deliberate policy choices, or just the chronic avoidance of tough political decisions - looks like it could be one of the primary (and under-rated) causes of the UK's appalling productivity problem. He shared his findings with Merryn Somerset Webb (and me) on the latest Merryn Talks Money podcast. If you only listen to one podcast this week (or month), make it this one. https://lnkd.in/eYtZJKwR

Longview Conversations x Kallum Pickering: 'Trumponomics' and the 2025 Global Macro Outlook In this twelfth instalment of our ‘Longview Conversations With’ podcast, the conversation gets back to ‘global macro’ and the ‘outlook for the global economy’ in 2025 and beyond. In discussion with Kallum Pickering (Chief Economist at Peel Hunt in London), we take a ‘trip around the world’ discussing global macro, ‘American exceptionalism’, ‘Trumponomics’, and the UK outlook, amongst other topics. I hope you enjoy it. Let us know your thoughts in the comments section below.... ....& do check out our prior podcasts, where we have discussed the bull and bear cases for China, de-dollarisation, Kondratieff waves, the prospect of WWIII, global asset allocation, and commercial real estate! We hope you enjoy the conversation! #economics #globaleconomics #USeconomics #globalmacro #UKeconomics

We are proud to sponsor The Quoted Companies Alliance 2025 Annual Conference. The theme this year is Funding our Future: Building Brilliant Companies on the UK’s Public Markets. City Minister, Emma Reynolds MP will open proceedings with a keynote address followed by senior speakers, including The Rt Hon. the Lord Mayor Alastair King, the Financial Conduct Authority’s Sarah Pritchard and Stephen Welton CBE, chair of the British Business Bank. Find out more and register here: https://lnkd.in/eFV58nai #QCAConference #Sponsor

Industry experts Doug Brodie, Peter Hewitt, and Anthony Leatham join us to discuss the influence of SABA on investment trusts 👉 https://lnkd.in/egneWwFJ Explore the potential of BlackRock Frontiers, and evaluate equity income options in a changing market landscape. Insights from Chancery Lane, Columbia Threadneedle Investments EMEA APAC, and Peel Hunt. #SABA #InvestmentTrusts #BlackRockFrontiers #EquityIncome #MarketInsights #ChanceryLane #ColumbiaThreadneedle #EMEA #APAC #PeelHunt #InvestmentStrategies #ChangingMarket #FinanceExperts

Tune in to episode 2 of the Bite Sized Economics Podcast to hear Charles Hall and Kallum Pickering discuss their latest analysis which challenges the widely held view that there is no trade-off between Net Zero and economic growth. "Our analysis challenges the government’s claim that there is no trade-off between Net Zero and economic growth. Two decades of experience suggests otherwise. The result of the UK’s decarbonisation efforts, so far, appears to be weak economic growth, high energy prices, de-industrialisation and no significant impact on the overall trajectory of global emissions." Listen to the full podcast below: Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eH7N-Y7c Website: https://lnkd.in/eHuP333U

A must read for policymakers and anyone interested in UK growth and productivity. Kallum Pickering, #PeelHunt's Chief Economist has dug through the data on 186 countries to determine where the UK sits in energy supply vs productivity - spoiler alert, it does not make for enjoyable reading. The result of the UK’s decarbonisation efforts, so far, is weak economic growth, high energy prices, de-industrialisation and no significant impact on the overall trajectory of global emissions. Carrying on with the same policies will only continue this depressing trajectory. Investing in new technology makes sense, but only combined with growing the economy. For our detailed X thread with key charts see here https://lnkd.in/eUTfeJgG For access to the full report see here https://shorturl.at/Ld2vY #netzero #economy #UK Rt Hon Rachel Reeves