Musk called the $2tn F-35 programme a ‘flop’. Is Trump shoving a dud down India’s throat?

118351770Trump’s announcement, at the joint press conference with Modi at the White House last week, that his administration is ‘paving the way to ultimately provide India’ with F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) combat aircraft has shocked observers from both India’s military establishment and think-tank community.The fact that Modi did not reiterate the sales pitch has done little to relieve consternation. The media already reporting that discussions on the deal, likely an inter-governmental agreement, are going to begin soon doesn’t help matters.The annual report of Director, Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) — principal staff assistant and adviser to the US secretary of defence — released in early 2024 showed that the 628 F-35s in the United States Air Force (USAF) had a fleet-wide full mission capable rate of only 30% as of end-2023. The benchmark full-mission availability rate for any credible air force is at least 65%.The full-mission spectrum for F-35 includes air-to-air combat, reconnaissance, ground support role, dedicated ground — including suppression of enemy air defences (SEAD) — or maritime strike, and carrying payload for a nuclear strike. Availability of platforms capable of only one of the tasks was found to be 51%. And this is in the US, home to the JSF programme with the biggest support infrastructure that involves temperature-controlled hangars and the best Lockheed Martin support staff, among others.The report also found that F-35s broke down very often, with repair taking an average of 141 days to return an aircraft to duty. Critical failure rate —which grounds aircraft so as to not endanger pilot safety — was more than double of that anticipated.The Pentagon’s top testing office report in 2024 also flagged a shortage in spare parts of critical components like engine components, canopies, distributed aperture system sensors, nacelle vent fans and at least seven other parts. A specific problem with software and hardware integration (avionics upgrade) saw USAF completely halting the delivery of F-35s from July 2023. This is an issue that has not been sorted till date as TR-3 software version 30R08 remains incomplete.USAF originally used the ground-based Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS) to download diagnostic data from the aircraft to maintain it. The network was also used by pilots to plan missions. ALIS faced mammoth interface and connectivity issues for years. Operators often found the system so bothersome that they went back to manually entering data before the system was scrapped. Its replacement, Operational Data Integrated Network (Odin), has been in development since 2020. It’s yet to arrive with its own software. medium118352677Why India must say noThe biggest irony is that in November 2024, Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) Major Domo Elon Musk called the $2 trillion F-35 programme a ‘flop’, and its contractor Lockheed Martin ‘idiots’, adding that it’s ‘the worst military value for money in history’.He’s not alone. A large number of former military officers, intelligence professionals and senators have been voicing similar opinions for a while. The JSF programme, originally supposed to cost $1.17 trillion, may very well be on the chopping block. So, is this Trump’s way of recovering at least some of that money by shoving a dud down India’s throat?Imagine the Indian Air Force (IAF) inducting 36 F-35s in two squadrons. At any given time, only 10 will be full-mission capable. The rest are hangar queens. No matter how awesome the capabilities of an individual aircraft may be, if it can’t be relied upon to respond when the situation demands, what is the use of buying such a platform? Plus, the Americans won’t part with sensitive technology and source codes.Finally, there’s the F-35’s much-flaunted stealth features. Alastair Crooke, veteran MI6 operative and British diplomat who has brokered many hostage releases and ceasefires in West Asia, pointed out in detail how on Oct 26, 2024, Israel had to abandon the next two waves of air attack on Iran after its initial wave failed to penetrate Iranian airspace.Not just that. The aircraft also had to jettison their missiles more than 100 km away from the Iranian Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), as they were painted by the radar of some unknown air defence system, thus causing minimal damage to a handful of Iranian sites, contrary to mainstream Western media reports.The Israeli strike package included F-35I Adir, a specialised variant of the JSF with Israeli components. Air defence tech has advanced at a breakneck speed in various parts of the world. There is no reason to think that India’s potential adversaries are not in possession of similar — and, possibly, even more — advanced systems.People in IAF understand all these points, and more. Hopefully, they will put pressure on the political establishment to say no to Trump’s deal, as it directly affects India’s defence preparedness and national security. 118352261Trump dangles F-35s before India. A game-changer or a costly trap? medium nocaption118352350The writer specialises in defence issues