Rahul vs Mayawati on alliance: What if BSP had joined INDIA bloc in UP Lok Sabha polls

NEW DELHI: Congress leader Rahul Gandhi reignited political debates by questioning Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) chief Mayawati's current electoral approach. Addressing Dalit students in Uttar Pradesh, Gandhi asked, "Behenji aajkal chunaav theek se kyun nahi lad rahi (Why is Mayawati not fighting polls properly these days)?"
Reflecting on the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Gandhi revealed that Congress had invited Mayawati to join the INDIA bloc alliance but she declined. "If Congress, Samajwadi Party (SP), and BSP had come together, BJP would have lost," he asserted.
Mayawati responded swiftly, accusing Congress of harboring a “malicious and casteist” attitude toward the BSP. She further criticised Congress’s strategy in Delhi, where the party contested alone against both BJP and INDIA bloc ally Aam Aadmi Party, leading to a significant BJP victory.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, Mayawati, Uttar Pradesh’s first Dalit chief minister, chose to stay neutral by neither joining INDIA bloc not NDA. While the SP-Congress alliance secured 43 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh, the INDIA bloc overall couldn’t unseat the NDA, paving the way for Narendra Modi’s historic third term as Prime Minister.
BSP's impact despite zero wins
Though BSP failed to win a single seat, its influence on poll outcome in Uttar Pradesh was undeniable. BSP candidates significantly affected INDIA bloc prospects in at least 16 constituencies, including Hardoi, Aligarh, Meerut, Unnao, and Mirzapur. This is on the assumption that all votes that Mayawati's party polled would have been transferred to its alliance partner. If Mayawati had joined hands with Rahul and Akhilesh and assuming her supporters would have backed the INDIA bloc, the opposition coalition could have clinched 59 seats in Uttar Pradesh, cutting the NDA’s tally to 20.

On a national scale, this would have raised the INDIA bloc’s count to 250 seats against NDA’s 277 — still short of power but significantly closer.

The BSP dilemma: Ally or adversary?
Interestingly, however, BSP’s presence as a neutral player prevented potential losses for the INDIA bloc. Of the 43 seats won by the Congress-SP alliance, there were 31 seats where Mayawati got considerable vote resulting in BJP's defeat. In seats like Azamgarh, Lalganj, Jaunpur, Muzaffarnagar, Kairana, and Saharanpur, INDIA bloc could beat BJP because Mayawati was neutral and polled significant votes. On these seats, if Mayawati was with INDIA bloc, its victory margin over the BJP would have increased.
Now let's assume the opposite. If Mayawati had decided to join hands with the NDA, then it would have won all these 31 seats and decimated the INDIA bloc. So while Rahul Gandhi may have been partially correct in critisising Mayawati for not joining INDIA bloc, he should be thankful to the BSF chief for staying neutral and not joining the BJP-led NDA.

The BSP secured 9.39 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s total vote share — just shy of Congress’s 9.46 per cent —yet remained third in nearly all 80 constituencies.

This complex electoral math, which is obviously based on the assumption of a complete transfer of votes, highlights the importance of BSP in Uttar Pradesh politics despite its losing sheen over the years. The unpredictable leader that Mayawati is, both NDA and INDIA bloc would be closely watching her next steps.