Scientists identify countries at risk if asteroid 2024 YR4 strikes earth

Astronomers have been closely monitoring a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, measuring approximately 40 to 100 meters wide, as fresh calculations slightly increase the odds of a potential impact on Earth. But before anyone panics, the risk is still very low.
Right now, scientists estimate there’s about a 2% chance the asteroid could hit Earth in 2032—which also means there’s a 98% chance it will sail safely past us. As researchers gather more data and refine its trajectory, these odds will likely change, and many experts believe the risk will eventually drop to zero.
NASA and the European Space Agency’s Webb Space Telescope plan to take a closer look at 2024 YR4 in March, before it moves too far out of view. Once it disappears, astronomers will have to wait until 2028 for another chance to track its path and get a clearer picture of whether it poses any real danger.

The potential danger posed by 2024 YR4 depends on factors like its size, speed, and composition—all of which are still largely unknown due to its current distance from Earth. Because of this, any predictions about the impact’s consequences remain rough estimates at this stage.
However, astronomers believe that if 2024 YR4 were to hit Earth, it would likely result in a massive airburst, or mid-air explosion, rather than a direct impact. The blast could be equivalent to nearly 8 million tons of TNT—roughly 500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima atomic bomb. This kind of explosion could cause widespread destruction within a 50-kilometer radius, depending on where it occurred.
‘Risk corridor’: Places which are at risk
Experts, including David Rankin, an engineer with NASA’s Catalina Sky Survey Project, have mapped out a potential “risk corridor” for 2024 YR4 based on its current trajectory. If the 2% chance of impact becomes a reality, the asteroid is expected to hit somewhere within a vast stretch of territory.
This projected impact zone spans northern South America, the Pacific Ocean, southern Asia, the Arabian Sea, and parts of Africa. Among the countries that could be affected are India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Sudan, Nigeria, Venezuela, Colombia, and Ecuador. However, as astronomers gather more data, these predictions could change.
The potential impact of 2024 YR4 raises concerns about the need for global preparedness and monitoring of near-Earth objects. While a 2% chance may seem small, the consequences of such an event could be significant, affecting millions of lives and causing widespread damage. International cooperation and continued research are crucial to mitigating the potential risks posed by asteroids and ensuring the safety of our planet.

How is threat measured?
The Torino scale, an 11-point system, is used to assess the potential danger of asteroids and comets that could collide with Earth. The higher the rating, the greater the risk of impact and destruction.
Currently, 2024 YR4 is classified as a level 3 threat, indicating that it is large enough and will pass close enough to warrant close monitoring. However, experts believe that as scientists refine its trajectory, the risk level will likely drop to zero.
Initially, astronomers estimated the probability of impact at 1.2%, which was later revised up to 2.3%. The most recent calculations have slightly lowered the risk to 2%, but ongoing observations will continue to update these numbers.
NASA has been keeping an eye on near-Earth objects (NEOs) for decades. The agency has been particularly observing the NEOs that could come within 30 million miles of our planet. Currently, over 25,000 such objects are being tracked, and most of them are too small to be concerned.
However, a new research by University of Arizona astronomer David Rankin also suggests that while Earth remains at risk, there is a small 0.3% chance that the 90-meter-wide asteroid could shift course and crash into the Moon instead.
Pic Courtesy: Canva