A Nato-like European army? EU faces security dilemma after Trump’s threats

At the recent Munich Security Conference, discussions resurfaced about the possibility of a common European defence policy, a concept that has remained dormant since the European Union’s creation in 1999. This idea suggests the potential for a Nato-like military alliance in Europe that could operate independently of North American involvement, particularly the US and Canada.The conference took place amid tensions sparked by the Donald Trump administration’s adversarial approach to Europe. Issues like tariffs, military spending, and the EU’s exclusion from Ukraine war negotiations led to concerns that Trump might withdraw US troops from Europe if he reaches a deal with Russia to end the ongoing conflict, leaving Europe to manage its own security.During the event, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed the creation of an “army of Europe”, a military force that would incorporate Ukrainian troops and function independently of US influence. French President Emmanuel Macron also advocated for greater European unity, meeting with select leaders at the Élysée Palace while the Trump administration pursued direct talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia on February 18.These developments throw up several key questions: Could Europe assume responsibility for its own security? Which nations would lead, and how would power be distributed within a potential military alliance?Furthermore, would such a coalition make Europe more susceptible to Russia’s nuclear threats, especially since France is the only EU member with independent nuclear weapons outside of Nato’s framework? medium118532907 medium118532915Who will take the wheel?By hosting the summit at the Élysée Palace, Macron solidified his ambition to become the leading voice on Ukraine and European security. With German Chancellor Olaf Scholz politically weakened and nearing the end of his tenure, the UK outside the EU, and Italy veering towards Trump, Macron has positioned himself as the EU’s de facto leader in advocating for strategic autonomy.With a presidential mandate until 2027 and France’s nuclear arsenal making it Europe’s sole atomic power, Macron has emerged as the only leader with both the authority and ambition to take action. His proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, even if focused on training and logistics, aligns with his broader vision of reducing Europe’s reliance on Washington.“Macron has sought to impose himself as Europe’s strongman,” French political analyst Jean-Yves Camus told the Associated Press.Why some countries are scepticalAt the summit, Scholz firmly rejected Macron’s proposal for a European-led security force in Ukraine, deeming it “completely premature” and “highly inappropriate” given the ongoing conflict. Scholz expressed his frustration, noting he was “a little irritated” that peacekeeping forces were even being discussed at such a sensitive time.He emphasised that Nato, not an independent European force, must remain the cornerstone of security in Europe.Some argue that Germany, due to its historical context from the world wars, has often been willing to cede leadership in European security to France, a role the French have pursued since the era of President Charles de Gaulle.Meanwhile, the debate over military spending has intensified, with Nato officials making it clear that the alliance’s 2% GDP defence spending target is now seen as a minimum, not a cap.UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is taking a different approach, positioning himself as Europe’s key link to Washington while maintaining strong support for Ukraine. He plans to visit Washington this week, with some seeing this as an effort to bridge the divide between the US and Europe and strengthen the “special relationship”.Meanwhile, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, a Trump ally, arrived late at the summit and left without making a public statement, signalling her scepticism. She questioned the decision to hold the summit in Paris rather than Brussels and criticised the exclusion of frontline states like the Baltics, Sweden, and Finland.Meloni also voiced opposition to deploying European troops in Ukraine, calling it “the most complex and least effective option”, especially without clear security guarantees for Kyiv. Despite her reservations, Meloni participated in the talks, raising Italy’s concerns about Europe’s long-term military commitments. medium nocaptionhttps://youtu.be/rTCI8JIAzqg?si=lyE-LY9eclwLfrswWhat experts say“This is indeed an existential moment for Europe. Events from recent days — from US Vice President JD Vance’s remarks at the Munich Security Conference that suggested Europe’s main security challenges emanated from within, to the Americans and Russians meeting in Saudi Arabia without the Europeans around — have not only thrown up European security and defence into question but also upended the transatlantic alliance itself and the shared values and interests it was based upon,” says Shairee Malhotra, deputy director of the strategic studies programme at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF).However, she believes that the formation of a Nato-like army for Europe is unlikely.“Instead, what may gain greater salience is the EU effort to develop the continent’s defence industrial capabilities. Supplementing national capitals’ efforts to strengthen and spend more on defence, the EU has undertaken initiatives such as the European Defence Industry Programme with a budget of €1.5bn and EDIRPA [European Defence Industry Reinforcement through Common Procurement Act] that focuses on joint procurement.“The EU also appointed its first commissioner for defence with plans to create a European Defence Union to upgrade the armed forces of member states, increase capacity and develop a functioning single market for defence in the wake of American retrenchment,” Malhotra adds.According to Norbert Röttgen, a member of Germany’s Parliament for the Christian Democratic Union, the party expected to run the next government after the February 23 polls, it is time for Europeans to recognise the world has changed.“This is a new reality, a break with traditional European American policy that security in Europe is a genuine US national interest,” he was quoted as saying by The New York Times. “But this administration does not consider it a primary US interest, and this is a fundamental shift.” medium nocaptionhttps://youtu.be/AqPa3Kd1cbg?si=2hztylF5zXGvNqk1Does EU have a common defence policy?The EU lacks a formal defence policy, much less a plan for creating a centralised military force under EU institutions in Brussels. Unlike Nato, which is a military alliance focused on defending member states against external threats, the EU does not function as a territorial defence alliance.Instead, what is commonly referred to as “EU defence policy” is essentially the military aspect of the EU’s broader security initiatives. These efforts are primarily geared towards enhancing international security beyond the EU’s borders, operating under the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), according to a policy brief published by the German Marshall Fund, a non-partisan American think tank.This framework is part of the EU’s foreign policy apparatus, alongside efforts aimed at improving the efficiency of defence spending by member states. Therefore, it is more precise to describe EU “military policy” or “military cooperation” rather than “defence policy”.The 2023 CSDP annual report, adopted by the European Parliament on February 28, 2024, focuses on several priorities, including strengthening EU support for Ukraine, enhancing security and defence capabilities through the European Peace Facility, and pursuing European strategic autonomy. The report also emphasises the importance of integrating civilian tools with defence efforts and deepening EU-Nato cooperation.Key recommendations include prioritising joint defence procurement, boosting the European defence industry’s production capacity, replenishing stockpiles, and reducing procurement fragmentation.EU’s military missionsSince its first intervention in the Western Balkans in 2003, the EU has initiated and led 40 operations and missions across three continents. As of October 2023, 24 CSDP missions and operations remain active.Approximately 4,000 EU military and civilian personnel are currently deployed worldwide. Typically, EU decisions to launch missions are made at the request of the partner country and/or based on a resolution from the UN Security Council.The most recent mission, the European Union Naval Force (EUNAVFOR) Operation Aspides, was established to ensure freedom of navigation and enhance maritime security in the Red Sea, the North-West Indian Ocean, and the Gulf. Operating with a defensive mandate, Aspides provides escorts for vessels and improves maritime situational awareness to counter potential sea or air threats.With inputs from Rajesh Sharma and agencies