Lars Schernikau

The hydrogen bubble has burst, according to a report published by my Financial Times colleagues Amanda Chu Rachel Millard Alice Hancock. Share prices of US and European clean hydrogen companies have collapsed while projects have been delayed as the industry battles lower than expected demand, regulatory uncertainties and growing investor scepticism. Shares of hydrogen companies Plug Power, Ballard Power Systems and Green Hydrogen Systems have fallen by more than half this year to historic lows as they reported repeated quarterly losses. The S&P Kensho Global Hydrogen Economy Index, which tracks companies across the low carbon hydrogen value chain, is back to levels akin to those in mid-2020, erasing gains made in late 2020 and early 2021 at the height of hype over the development of the green energy. Last month, consultancy McKinsey slashed its 2030 green hydrogen forecast for the US by 70 per cent, predicting the country would miss its 10mn tonnes clean hydrogen production target set by the Biden administration. In July the European Court of Auditors, the bloc’s spending watchdog, warned the EU’s goal to produce 10mn tonnes of green hydrogen by 2030 was “unrealistic” and a “reality check” was needed. “Green hydrogen is still not investable. It’s rubbish in terms of investment,” said Mark Lacey, head of thematic equities at Schroders.

69

2 Comments

Uh oh. Even OPEC is lowering its demand forecast but they aren't ready to accept reality just yet. https://lnkd.in/e5BPeVKK "Demand is still seen at healthy levels—well above the historical average of 1.4 million barrels a day seen before the pandemic, according to OPEC" Nothing to see here as demand is still well above historical averages, right? Or at least OPEC forecasted demand is. Meanwhile, the IEA also has lowered its forecast. "The Paris-based organization estimates that global demand will grow by 970,000 barrels a day this year and by 953,000 barrels a day the next—" Hmmm. Significantly below the historical average of 1.4 million barrels per day. Almost would seem like there is some sort of structural change happening in the global oil markets. OPEC is clearly talking its book. Which is pretty standard among oil companies and has served them well in the past. But, if there is a structural change happening in the oil markets and demand does not increase like OPEC claims it will, they are in a tight spot for the next few years. "Current prices also seem far from what the two main leaders of the OPEC+ alliance—Saudi Arabia and Russia—need to balance their budgets" Can they talk their way into increasing global oil demand? It hasn't worked so far.

3

Timely Update on the U.S. IRA Program and Clean Hydrogen Transition 🚀: Critical aspects regarding H2 derivative fuels and how those fuels will be assessed at International Maritime Organization (#IMO) in a maritime application🚢 The final rules for the Section 45V Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit under the Inflation Reduction Act (#IRA) are here! These regulations set the stage for hydrogen’s role in a cleaner energy future by establishing clear pathways for both electricity and methane-based hydrogen production. 🔑 Key Takeaway: The rules emphasize incremental clean electricity, temporal matching, and deliverability—ensuring hydrogen production aligns with real-time clean energy generation and supports grid stability. ⚡ What’s Next? The updated 45VH2-GREET model will soon guide producers in calculating their tax credits. This marks a significant step forward in driving investment and innovation in the clean hydrogen sector, accelerating the energy transition. #Methanol #Sustainable #Transition #CCSU #CircularCO2 GREEN MARINE GROUP

12

Implementing a strong mandate to phase out coal power before 2045 could help China reach a “positive tipping point”, in which clean energy is cheaper than fossil fuels, up to three years earlier than expected and put on track Beijing’s zero-emission goal by 2060, according to scientists. While such a mandate would be more powerful than carbon market trading and subsidies to boost the renewable energy sector, it would require structural changes to the country’s power system and economic model, they said. https://lnkd.in/gFF8eX5R South China Morning Post SCMP #climatechange #coal #energy #china

27

US liquefied natural gas exports are emerging as an early bargaining chip in a potential deal between Brussels and Washington that would send more energy to Europe in exchange for dissuading Donald Trump from levying hefty import tariffs on EU companies. European officials have said increased imports of US LNG could play a role in weaning the continent off its continued reliance on Russian imports while also helping to assuage Trump’s concerns over the trade deficit. For US developers, the expansion of the European market, coupled with Trump’s promise to scrap a pause on export licenses as soon as he takes office, could open the door to rapid growth over the coming four years. “We look forward to working with the incoming Trump administration to cement America’s role as the world’s leading supplier of clean liquefied natural gas,” said Michael Sabel, chief executive of Venture Global, a leading US LNG developer. “In recent years, Europe has moved swiftly to build out the necessary infrastructure needed to support a surge of LNG into the region and with the necessary policy support and regulatory certainty the United States is well positioned to meet that long-term demand,” he said. Developers are banking that the EU’s ongoing efforts to wean itself off Russian gas will be turbocharged under the second Trump administration. Share prices of LNG companies in the US — already the world’s biggest supplier — have surged over the past week. Free link to story here https://on.ft.com/3AEN6D6 VentureGlobal Myles McCormick Continental Resources Financial Times

33

1 Comment

Good news here. However, this article fails to mention the real reason it is good news. Blending hydrogen with methane to burn for electricity is dumb and isn't helping reduce emissions. To summarize: It's expensive, doesn't reduce emissions and increases methane/H2 leaks. Anyway, we'll take the win for whatever reason. On to real solutions.

8

2 Comments

Do you follow #cleanenergy and #cleantech markets? These days, you don't have to scroll far down your news and social media feeds before finding a range of analysis on the outlook for #EVs, #hydrogen, #wind, #solar, #nuclear, #carboncapture and more. It's dynamic. Demand's up. Demand's down. Stocks are up. Stocks are down. Oh they're up again. No wait, they're down. Tech is evolving. The US is making big policy moves. So is the EU. China's all over it. The result - people are rightfully thinking about what it all means to them. Their pocketbooks. Their families. Their #communities. Our #energy security. Our #prosperity. They have important questions. Should I go with an #EV? Is it reliable? If my company invests in #CCUS will I make a good return on my #investment? Don't we still need #oilandgas? What about new technologies, are these feasible? Can we even play in the big leagues? The challenge - there's no easy answers. But here's what we DO know. One. Globally, trillions of #investment dollars and millions of #jobs in the clean economy are up for grabs. Governments are mobilizing - building economies to attract #investors who want to put dollars behind industries powered by clean energy and tech. And, while oil and gas will remain part of the energy mix for decades, we must act now to make sure #Canada can compete and win in the #cleaneconomy. Two. Like any fast-moving shift, the road's been bumpy with swings in #supply and #demand in certain market segments. But it's the big picture we must zero in on. The pace of investment remains huge. BloombergNEF showed 2023 global investment in clean energy was $2 trillion - up 17%. So it remains strong, albeit at a slightly-less-but-still-super-massive-rate than recent years. Three. The path forward is not one-size-fits-all. Look at Canada. Each province has it's own existing energy mix, #economicbase, #infrastructure and more. Four. What Canadians care about matters. People want to #reliably and #affordably heat their homes, run their #businesses and get to work. And they want to know they'll have a good job. All to say, nothing about this is easy. But that shouldn't stop us from rising to the #challenge boldly. To listen to #Canadians. To acknowledge oil and gas workers' contributions. They have built communities and our #economy. These industries still matter and workers will also be welcomed with open arms as the talent that will power the clean economy. To #cometogether. To not look at any one solution as a silver bullet, but be practical. To double down on business fundamentals that'll attract investment. To #build. To get #energy #criticalmineral and #infrastructure projects done. To design integrated energy plans. To help industries #decarbonize. To grow #Indigenousownership. To unleash #innovation and the #entrepreneurial spirit of citizens from St. John's to Vancouver. To be #TeamCanada and tell the world we're #openforbusiness. And, help all Canadians prosper. #leadership

31

Here is some cutting-edge analysis on hydrogen imports into Germany done by Guidehouse and Agora Energiewende, accompanied by some thoughts on the state of the hydrogen economy. The hydrogen industry has long envisioned an "all roads lead to Germany" scenario with low-cost clean hydrogen imports coming from North, East, South, and Western corridors, involving hundreds of stakeholders from the Europe and MENA region.   This vision is a complex and costly one, requiring cooperation between governments on regulation and subsidization to reach economies of scale where pure market forces become increasingly impactful to project development. To understand the timing and execution of this, a couple of key trends should be considered:   1) FID on repurposed Norwegian and Danish natural gas pipelines is a major domino for the European clean hydrogen market. To a large extent, the hydrogen market will only pick up appreciable steam once industrials in Germany decide to swap natural gas for hydrogen, a difficult decision in the face of rising industrial competitiveness concerns. In the near term, hydrogen transported via repurposed natural gas pipelines from Norway will be the cheapest form of hydrogen import, and will allow consumption to scale further within Germany. As such, this will be a significant indicator of the pace this transformation will occur at.   2) The creation of lead markets will be crucial to closing the cost gap and providing certainty for long-term purchase agreements. A petrochemical, fertilizer, or steel manufacturer will only commit themselves to clean hydrogen in the long term if they are certain they will be able to produce at scale and pass on additional costs to their customers. Willingness to pay is increasing for green products such as "green steel" mainly used in cars and increasingly buildings and machinery, and in maritime and aviation applications as policy drivers such as ReFuelEU Aviation and Maritime are providing mandatory clean fuel quotas and penalties for non-compliance.   3) Alternatively, lead product imports can cost-effectively supplement pure hydrogen imports. An important mindset to develop is how we can integrate low to middle-income countries into the hydrogen economy. If done in the right way we can avoid unnecessary costs and pitfalls in developed countries and accelerate development in low to middle-income countries by co-building value-added manufacturing industries and providing access to developed markets.   In short, what the clean hydrogen economy in Europe needs at this stage is commitment from political and industrial players, as well as foresight into the efficient and equitable involvement of stakeholders abroad.    If done right, the clean hydrogen economy has the potential to decarbonize and improve the energy security of Europe, as well as bolster cooperation, financing, and development of emerging nations. #Hydrogen #Development

32

1 Comment

The World Resources Institute released the Climate Watch #NDC Tracker. Those interested in how national governments ambitions are shaping up will find this tracker of great interest: https://lnkd.in/gr6V2BBp Note that the deadline for submissions is early 2025. #decarbonization #climatechange #COP29 #gigacornhunter #gigacorn #climate #carbon #economy

6

According to the recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report, #renewables are projected to account for approximately 46% of global #electricitygeneration by 2030, with #solar and #wind contributing ~30%. #Renewable capacity is expected to reach 5,500 GW by the end of the decade, with #solar and #wind making up 95% of this expansion, driven by declining costs and supportive policies. As the global #energytransition accelerates, China’s role continues to be a focal point. By 2030, China is expected to add over 1,200 GW of #renewablecapacity, accounting for nearly 60% of the global renewable expansion. Remarkably, China will hold close to 50% of the world’s total #renewableenergy capacity.

21

1 Comment

The #uranium market has been navigating through a dynamic year marked by evolving market signals and global uncertainty. Sprott’s latest report, "Uranium Markets Impacted by Market Signals and Uncertainty," offers critical takeaways on the state of the market and what lies ahead: 📈 Uranium Market Steadies ⚡ Nuclear Energy Gains Global Support 🇺🇸 U.S. Elections & Nuclear Policy Impacts 🛢️ Energy Strategy: Domestic vs. International Focus 🚨 Russian Ban Challenges Supply Chain

11

1 Comment

Changing the world’s energy system “is a process that should be measured in decades, or generations, not years”. #energytransition #inflation #energy #energypolicy #commodities #commoditytrading

35

3 Comments

* Renewable hydrogen at $1 per kilogram is not going to happen without subsidies * New modeling by BloombergNEF shows the levelized cost of ‘green’ hydrogen drops 60% by 2050 * Best cost scenario -- China -- has green hydrogen at just $2.50 per kilogram by 2030 and $1.60 per kilogram by mid-century

5

The Australian Government has unveiled the Future Made in Australia plan, focusing on fostering investment, renewable energy leadership, resource value-adding, and economic security. A critical component is the support for renewable hydrogen investment through the Hydrogen Production Tax Incentive, with an estimated $6.7 billion over ten years. Your input is vital in shaping the program's design and implementation legislation before its launch on 1 July 2027. Treasury is seeking stakeholder feedback to influence the future of Australia's economic landscape. For more information and to contribute your insights, access the Treasury consultation paper here: https://lnkd.in/eBJ3kqVf #Australia #FutureMadeInAustralia #RenewableEnergy #EconomicDevelopment #HydrogenInvestment #StakeholderFeedback

8

1 Comment

The Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) is a dynamic space brimming with potential to combat climate change, which I recently delved into for a series of blog posts. After a promising start, it's facing challenges that threaten its potential to effect this change. Market stagnation, fueled by economic uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and unclear government policies, have created a cautious investment climate, which is slowing down carbon credit purchases. Even worse, concerns about the quality and credibility of these credits are eroding trust. Many projects might not deliver the promised emissions reductions, and a lack of transparency makes it hard to distinguish between genuine climate solutions and "greenwashing". However, the recent US VCM guidelines could be a turning point. Stay tuned for Part 2 to learn how these guidelines might revitalize the market. Read the full blog here >> https://lnkd.in/g7-HvziW #VCM #climatechange #sustainability #carboncredits #greenwashing

2

The Harsh Reality: Climate Inaction As the world grapples with climate change, governments and corporations remain woefully inadequate in their response. We can't just wait and watch as the powerful explore escape routes. We must take matters into our own hands for future generations. Time for Collective Action - "We Look Up" moment. Imagine a Web3-based crowdsourcing platform combining Kickstarter's crowdfunding, YC's incubation, and GitHub's collaborative spirit – exclusively for climate action. This platform is driven by collective power, not corporate interests, etched on immutable technology: 1. Unite climate activists, innovators, and citizens to drive impact. 2. Amplify and support eco-friendly businesses. 3. Fund and promote innovative sustainable solutions. 4. Facilitate collaboration and IP sharing for accelerated growth & B2B partnerships for production and distribution. Martin, let's team up and bring this vision to life. Join me in building a revolutionary platform for the people, by the people. Join Forces for a Better Future We have ONE Earth, and there's NO Planet B. Collaborate with me to create a better future! P.S. I've open sourced my idea; now it's your turn. What's your food for thought on climate action or you prefer still watching? #OneEarth #ClimateAction #CrowbsourcingForChange #Sustainability #ActNow

6

1 Comment

Thanks for this hopeful update, Saima Qadir, on carbon markets' potential flight to quality. I have many Mexican indigenous forest communities approaching me to place about one million credits, mostly already verified, from improved forestry management (IFM) activities under the Climate Action Reserve (CAR) Mexico standard. Currently, the market seems flooded with this carbon class. I am finding buyers have little to no interest in forest carbon other than driving down the price with a superficial expectation for social and environmental co-benefits, offering insignificant incentives to keep forest landscapes standing. Because of unfilled promises and expectations, some forest communities in Michoacan, Mexico are even considering chopping down their megadiverse FSC-certified forests out of sheer desperation, which would devastate remnant habitat for rare and endangered species, including the Monarch Butterfly. Your optimistic outlook is encouraging. Thanks for sharing! Ernesto Herrera Guerra Santiago Gowland 🌱 Santiago Espinosa de los Monteros Harispuru Michael P Totten Karla Gallardo Russell Byers Manuel Vega Marcela Flores Michael Jenkins Camilo Santa David Shoch Rick Weyerhaeuser Lori Darley Drew Tulchin Juan Daniel Martínez Beto Borges Rhett Ayers Butler

4

The share of fossil fuel in Brics countries’ power capacity is expected to drop below 50 per cent for the first time this year amid rapid growth of renewable energy and declining coal and oil and gas development in China and its peers, according to Global Energy Monitor. While this signals an important milestone in the clean energy transition for the influential bloc that still hosts most of the world’s coal power, energy experts urged these countries to accelerate investments in energy storage and grid infrastructure to keep pace with the growing share of renewable energy. https://lnkd.in/grkYwff9 South China Morning Post SCMP #climatechange #BRICS #energy #fossilfuels #renewableenergy

23

2 Comments