Jakub Wrzosek

❗End of WIBOR Index❗ National Bank of Poland's Financial Market Committee decided on Tuesday to choose the new reference rate to replace the WIBOR index in numerous financial contracts in Poland, including housing loans. After conducting the second round of public consultations in the autumn, it was decided that the new rate would be one of the indices from the WIRF (Warsaw Financial Market Index) family, specifically the WIRF variant. 💡What's that? ✴️ WIRF is based on unsecured deposit transactions within a group of credit and financial institutions. ✴️ The WIRF variant selected is calculated from these data but excludes deposit transactions from certain financial institutions, and it also features a higher minimum transaction volume threshold. ✴️ WIRF- is a technical name for the index, with the final name to be decided through further discussions - could be constructed similarly to the European ESTR (European Short Term Rate), hence its potential name "WSTR" standing for "Warsaw Short Term Rate" 🕛 The first application may take place in government bonds at the beginning of the second half of 2025, and shortly thereafter in new contracts, including mortgages. #WIBOR #WIRF #WSTR #Banking #Finance #FinancialNews #EconomicIndicators #InterestRates

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🌍 Commerzbank AG to open a representative office in Lithuania.   One of Germany's largest banks will open a representative office in Vilnius this December. It will serve as the hub for the Baltic States. Commerzbank will focus on trade and project finance in the region. Fostering strong collaboration with the public sector and local financial service providers.   Lithuania is already home to established German names such as Continental, HELLA, and Schmitz Cargobull, and German firms are the largest foreign investors in the Lithuanian Manufacturing sector.   More: German Commerzbank AG to open Baltic representative office in Lithuania | Invest Lithuania #Lithuania #Commerzbank #Finance #InvestLithuania

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The time has come to read a very interesting report: the GREENTECH REPORT POLAND 2024 prepared by Accelpoint, Taylor Economics in partnership with PKO BP, and EIT Climate KIC   We are delighted to see the presence of three of our portfolio companies (Solwena, The SmokeD wildfire detectors, and Waste24) in the cited report. EEC Ventures is at the forefront of green VC funds, as proven by the number of portfolio companies mentioned in the report in relation to the total number of all companies in the portfolio.   Our companies have verified and confirmed the market value of the technologies and their products. They have also established partnerships with large regional or global players, and their revenues are growing.   Both The SmokeD wildfire detectors and Waste24 are already generating revenue in foreign markets. Solwena is working with major international corporations and is in the process of negotiating agreements that will result in revenues from abroad. The report contains a very thorough analysis, starting from the good definition of concepts such as greentech, cleantech, climatetech, and many interesting analyses. The report paints a picture of a young and delicate ecosystem. Quantitatively, the community of 133 "green" startups is indeed a very small percentage compared to the 4,900 technological companies in Poland. These startups are in the early stages of development, they still have modest revenues, and individual investors dominate among the investors. VC funds associated with PFR Ventures are among the largest capital donors This early stage of the system is likely the reason why less than one-third of the described startups have sought R&D funding, which is usually an appropriate source of financing for projects at this stage. It is also surprising to note that Hungary and Lithuania have attracted more investment in this sector than Poland. Reading the entire report is highly recommended.  

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I am happy that i could contribute to e-book accompanying RETAIL CHALLENGE POLAND 2025 giving some thoughts on application of AI in Revenue Management. Looking forward to discussion on this topic also during the conference. #retail #ecommerce #revenuemanagement #simonkucher #brave #retailchallenge #assortment #stock

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In CEE, flash estimates of 2Q24 GDP growth surprised mostly to the downside 📉 weighing on the full year outlooks. Poland is the only exception to this development. In Czechia surprise to the downside was rather marginal (0.4% y/y vs. expectations at 0.6% y/y) while in Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia GDP growth fell short of expectations to a greater extent. Therefore the revisions of 2024 growth will likely follow. Only Poland surprised to the upside as 2Q24 landed at 3.2% y/y (expectations at 2.7% y/y). We will put the 2024 forecast under revision as well. In Serbia growth remained solid above 4% and mostly in line with expectations.   The GDP structure will be released at the end of August and beginning of September. Looking at monthly indicators, retail sector sustained solid performance as average growth of retail sales accelerated in 2Q24 in most of the countries. Industry on the contrary contracted and in many countries the decline of industrial output growth was more substantial in 2Q24 compared to the beginning of the year. Poland was one of the exceptions as industrial output growth accelerated to 2.2% y/y on average in 2Q24. Juraj Kotian #GDP #2024 #growth

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A stronger global economy? More equities, please....   Yesterday (6 June), the ECB trimmed interest rates but gave the market few clues about future cuts. The US Fed might not reduce interest rates at all in 2024. What is happening? Some leading indicators we (at EnCor) use in our cross-asset allocation model (see our chart) are suggesting the global economy is growing faster than commentators expect. This will mean higher trend inflation, likely implying few or no interest rate cuts from G10 Central Banks in the near to medium term. It also means that Equities should be in favour. As we outlined last month in our latest client webinar, we again increased weights in Equities in our clients' portfolios for Q2 2024. #assetallocation #wealthmanagement #equities

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Lietuvos bankas | Bank of Lithuania has appointed a temporary representative to oversee the operations at kevin. The Bank of Lithuania has appointed a temporary representative to oversee the operations of #Kevin EU, UAB due to concerns about the company's financial stability and consumer interests. Kevin EU, UAB, has delayed the submission of its audited annual financial statements for nearly four months, repeatedly extending the deadlines and failing to provide necessary information to auditors. Additionally, the company has not met the capital adequacy requirements and lacks proper internal controls. To address these issues, the Bank of Lithuania has assigned the private limited company Valnetas to supervise Kevin EU, UAB's activities. The company is required to submit the audited 2023 annual reports, shareholders' meeting decisions on profit (loss) distribution, the auditor’s opinion, and the audit report to the Bank of Lithuania by August 30, 2024. The appointment of a temporary representative means that all decisions related to the company's activities must be approved by the representative, who will regularly report to the Bank of Lithuania. However, this does not affect the company's management nor its existing customers' ability to use its services. Additionally, the Bank of Lithuania has instructed Kevin to cease providing payment services to new clients until the company meets the capital adequacy requirements. Kevin, which has faced challenges in maintaining financial transparency and stability, now has a clear deadline to rectify these issues. This move by the Bank of Lithuania aims to ensure the company's compliance with regulatory standards and protect consumer interests. The involvement of Valnetas is a crucial step in stabilizing Kevin EU, UAB and ensuring its operational integrity. Want to stay up to date with the market? Here my newsletter: - Linkedin: https://lnkd.in/d4h8zqKA  - Substack: https://lnkd.in/dzfGJzmW

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What a view :) Photo from the last ESCB Working Group on Financial Accounts and Government Finance Statistics meeting in Vilnius, Lithuania. Very important new developments and constructive conversations. ✌ And many thanks to the organizators from Lietuvos bankas | Bank of Lithuania for the perfect event. #ecb #escb #FinancialAccounts #GovernmentFinance

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It’s not a secret 😎or surprise😮 that E-commerce platforms are playing an increasingly important role in economic development. Let’s take Poland 🇵🇱 as an example. According to latest data, the percentage of Polish Internet users who buy online, currently stands at 79% and, believing the experts, by the year 2027, the value of the e-commerce market in Poland 🇵🇱will increase by over 94 billion - up to 187 billion PLN! We talk Biiiig Money💰here! In recent years, Chinese🇨🇳 companies have been gaining popularity on the European e-commerce market exploiting ⛳ 🕳 loopholes in EU law. Chinese companies are taking advantage of the opportunity to sell goods worth up to 150 euros 💶 without paying customs 🛃duties. The problem is noticed by the European Commission, which announced the abolition of the EUR 150 threshold, below which purchases from outside the EU are exempt from 🛃 customs duties. According to Rzeczpospolita only last year, 2.3 billion items - below the duty-free threshold of 150 euros - entered 🇪🇺 EU! The e-commerce imports, more than doubled year-on-year! Chinese sellers also benefit from subsidized shipping costs, which means it’s profitable to send cheap goods by air ✈ Thanks to this, e.g. Temu, the Chinese sales platform, has conquered many European 🇪🇺 markets in just six months, which would have been impossible for other e-commerce companies. But the problem goes far beyond unfair price competition. The online sales make it difficult for authorities, such as the customs service or the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection, to control the quality of imported products, including their safety, especially in the case of children's goods. Ministry of Economic Development and Technology is following the EC, and the government's list of works already includes an act on the regulation on foreign subsidies, and an act on market surveillance authorities. In addition, the Ministry of Finance, will prepare an action plan to limit potential unfair competition from foreign online trading platforms. Związek Przedsiębiorców i Pracodawców / Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers ZPP, is in favor of all initiatives supporting the fight against unfair competition and unifying regulations for companies operating in the European Union. Interested in getting more comprehensive picture regarding the "Polish 🇵🇱 perspective" as the regulation of 🇨🇳Chinese e-commerce platforms is concerned ? ZPP comment at Warszawska Izba Gospodarcza (WIG) is to be recommended. Does anyone know, and would like to share the "Norwegian 🇳🇴 perspective" on the subject? E.g. the standpoint og NHO Norwegian counterpart of Związek Przedsiębiorców i Pracodawców / Union of Entrepreneurs and Employers Please share! In the light of recent visit of the Norwegian Prime Minister to China, and the signing of a cooperation agreement on information exchange between the Norwegian 🇳🇴 and Chinese 🇨🇳Central Banks, the topic seems to be quite interesting.

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CNB on guard as economy recovers and inflation not fully resolved In light of latest economic data releases, we are revising some of the forecasts made in our last Czech Economic Outlook report. According to the second estimate of GDP, the economy performed slightly below our expectations in 1Q24. However, household consumption is recovering at a relatively strong pace, which should be supported by faster wage growth. We are therefore leaving our 2024 and 2025 GDP growth forecasts unchanged at 1.4% and 2.2%, respectively. In contrast, we are raising our inflation forecast slightly to an average of 2.4% for this year and 2.0% for next year. We are maintaining our core inflation estimate of 2.6% for this year, but raising our 2025 estimate to 2.0%. This is due to the higher inflation observed in recent months and increasing momentum in household consumption and wages. Meanwhile, wage forecasts have undergone the biggest change due to the surprisingly strong growth at the beginning of this year. As a result, we have raised our estimate of average nominal wage growth to 6.8% for 2024, while leaving it broadly unchanged at 5.3% for 2025. The Czech National Bank, which has proven to be very cautious, is therefore likely to cut interest rates more slowly than we had originally anticipated. Hence we now expect the repo rate to be cut by only 25bp at each of the this year’s remaining meetings, bringing it to 4% by the end of the year. In addition, the koruna is likely to be stronger than we had expected, contributing to tighter monetary conditions than we had forecast. More in #KBreport from Komerční banka 👇 or here: https://lnkd.in/gtQbeEiq. #forecasts #economy #inflation #wages #labourmarket #interestrates #czechkoruna #monetarypolicy #fiscalpolicy #financialmarkets #czechia

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Today, I had the pleasure of participating in the ICV POLSKA - International Association of Controllers Working Group meeting in Wrocław, focused on "Automation, Digitalization, and Competencies." 🌟 I'm continuously impressed by how ICV Dolny Śląsk is evolving and the opportunities it provides for sharing experiences 💪 The discussions left us with some thought-provoking questions: 🤖 Process Automation -> While automation aims to save human labor and eliminate waste, how are we utilizing the newfound free time? Are employees whose tasks have been automated well-integrated and motivated to pursue further improvements? 📊 Artificial Intelligence -> AI is increasingly helping us with analyses and relieving us from daily tasks. But how effective are today's predictive algorithms, and do they take into account human ambition? ⚠️ GenAI risks -> Just as we once feared computers and browsers, should we view genAI as just another step in technological evolution, or is it something more? Dariusz Okniński dr Tomasz M. Zieliński Magdalena Bandurska Thank you for the invitation and the valuable discussions. Looking forward to the next meeting! 🤝✨ #ICVPolska #Automation #Digitalization #AI #GenAI #Leadership

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📢 Exciting news! My colleague has just published a thought-provoking research paper on an important topic that affects all of us. In the current economic climate, the question of whether to spend or save has become increasingly relevant. This is particularly true for households in the CEE region, who are now experiencing consistent real wage increases. The latest Special report of ERSTE Research delves into the baseline growth story for CEE this year, highlighting the economic expansion driven by household spending. However, it also reveals a concerning trend of dissolving savings during the inflation years, alongside an emerging willingness to save, as indicated by questionnaire-based data. Don't miss out on the insights presented in our report! 🔗 Read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eVqUrxna For more informative reports like this, make sure to subscribe to our channel. Stay updated with the latest trends and developments in the CEE economy. 📌 #CEE #economy #ersteresearch #savings 👥 Katarzyna Rzentarzewska , Juraj Kotian , Jakub Čery

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Another milestone for #BLIK in 2024! 🚀 BLIK has set a new record, reaching 625.5 million transactions in a single quarter—marking an impressive 38% YoY growth. Even more astonishing, we achieved 81 BLIK transactions per second in Q3! E-commerce continues to dominate as the most popular category, with significant growth seen across sectors such as fashion, financial services, bill payments, betting, and for the first time, tourism! Here’s how our key channels are performing: 🔹 E-commerce: 289.1 million transactions - up 27% YoY 💻 🔹 P2P: 154 million transactions - up 41% YoY 📱 🔹 POS: 164.1 million transactions - up 61% YoY 📊 🔹 ATM: 18.3 million transactions - up 12% YoY 🏧 This remarkable growth highlights how digital payments are revolutionizing daily life for over 17 million Poles! Click here to read more 👉 https://lnkd.in/dTKPwA6S #ecommerce #Q3 #results

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Absolutely thrilled to have been part of the brilliantly organized #WomenInTechSummit in Warsaw! 🎉 This significant event gathers both women and men interested in further development, new job opportunities, and learning. Business 🏢 and academic 🎓 representatives under one roof share their experiences with participants. 🌐💼 #ESG - I was a panelist, discussing the practical aspects of ESG, expertly moderated by the fantastic Joanna Maraszek from PlanBe.eco. We focused on implementing #carbonfootprint counting in transactions and other practices among B2B and B2C clients, and the potential of green initiatives. 🌍💼💡 We also debated on #ecommerce vs. traditional retail - what’s better for the planet? Plus, we explored the business opportunities related to ESG. In my opinion, ESG offers the greatest opportunities to small and medium-sized enterprises (including FinTech) for rapid development in new directions. 🚀🎯 #Inclusion - What was truly commendable were the inclusive measures taken by the organizers. Children under 18 could join with a parent for free, drinking water was freely available, and non-gender restrooms were provided. They even organized a collection of unused mobile phones and had a kids' corner, making it a family-friendly event. 👪💧📱 Being part of the Women in Tech Summit was a truly enriching experience. Here's to more such empowering events! 👩‍💼💪💫 #WomenInTechSummit #ESG #Finance #Innovation #Leadership #KnowledgeSharing 😊

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Krystian Strabanik Adam Kosmala PKO Bank Polski finances the development of open fibre optic networks in Poland Together with a consortium of seven financial institutions, we have signed a loan agreement with a total value of PLN 2.8 billion with Fiberhost, INEA and related companies. Our stake amounts to PLN 600 million. "Open fibre networks are one of the most effective ways to introduce digital services in areas where residents have limited or no access to high-speed fibre internet. Such infrastructure and the services provided through it are crucial for the effective digital transformation of our country and the pursuit of climate neutrality, in line with the assumptions of the European Green Deal. That is why we are glad that we can financially support Fiberhost and INEA in the implementation of their business targets," says Marcin Majewski, Head of the Corporate Clients Relationship Division at PKO Bank Polski PKO Bank Polski supports its corporate clients in the implementation of investment projects. The financing will be used to achieve the group's strategic objectives, a.o. the development of a multi-fibre network, the expansion of the range of services on open networks and the refinancing of existing debt. #PKOBankPolski #PKOBP #loanmarkets #projectfinance #investment

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Zero trading fees on ETFs at the Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW)! Until the end of 2024, brokers and investment firms can trade ETFs and ETCs with zero fees on the Warsaw Stock Exchange 📈 By waiving fees for Exchange Members, we’re supporting the rising popularity of ETFs and ETCs on GPW—aiming to boost interest in these products as a strong choice for long-term investments, particularly within IKE and IKZE 🌱💸 Invest smart, invest for the long term at GPW! #ETFs #ETCs #GPW #Investing #IKE #IKZE

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A significant transaction is taking place in the Polish banking market. Bank Pekao has signed a letter of intent with PZU regarding the acquisition of shares in Alior Bank. As a result, Pekao will strengthen its position and control approximately 13% of the market, with assets worth around PLN 415 billion (+/- EUR 100 billion) PZU and Pekao signed the letter of intent on December 2, 2024, regarding Pekao's acquisition of Alior. Currently, the PZU Group holds shares in both banks — 20% in PZU (with 12.8% of the shares controlled by the Polish Development Fund) and 31.91% in Alior Bank. As indicated in PZU's new strategy, this structure is deemed "suboptimal" due to: 👉 Lower attractiveness for investors; 👉 Control over two competing banks, which leads to a discount in valuation and the complexity of direct supervision over competitors within one group; 👉 Lack of synergies; 👉 High capital concentration, resulting in increased risk. 📈 How did the markets react to the announcement? With enthusiasm. On Thursday (December 5, 2024), the share price of Pekao on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE) rose by more than 4%. The WIG20 blue-chip index gained around 1.18%, reaching 2267.3 points. What do you think about this end-year huge transaction? #BankingTransaction #WSE #MarketReaction #InvestmentNews #Stock

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What is the current crypto market situation? 🔎 Despite recent turbulence in the market, it is still possible to believe that the bull run is not over. We learned this from FXMAG's editor-in-chief Dawid Augustyn's YouTube interview with our product manager Jacek Kubiak. Here are the key points: 1/ Bitcoin and the Halving Cycle ⛏ - Historical Halving Cycles: Each halving cycle has shown some patterns but behaved differently each time. Bitcoin's price does not always align with halving predictions. - Current Valuations: Based on historical data, Bitcoin is currently valued higher than expected, suggesting either a higher bottom or an overestimation influenced by ETF approvals. - Future Price Predictions: A model predicts Bitcoin's price post-halving to reach approximately $200,000 by the end of next year. 2/ ETFs on Cryptocurrencies 🏦 - Current and Future ETFs: Bitcoin ETFs have been introduced, and there's anticipation for Ethereum and Solana ETFs. - Regulatory Uncertainty: Ethereum ETF approval is still pending, and the regulatory environment remains cautious and selective. - Potential Impact of ETFs: If Ethereum ETFs get approved, it could open the door for Solana ETF and other major crypto, potentially enhancing market diversification. 3/ The Altcoin Market 📈 - Current State of Altcoins: There's skepticism about many altcoins, as they often lack practical utility and are seen as speculative investments. - Bitcoin’s Dominance: Despite criticism of Bitcoin's older technology, it continues to maintain a strong market position compared to newer projects. - Speculative Nature: The altcoin market is heavily driven by speculation and hype, with a significant risk of pump-and-dump schemes. 4/ Regulatory Environment ⚖ - MICA Regulations: Upcoming regulations (MICA) are intended to bring more order and safety to the cryptocurrency market but may push smaller businesses into the gray market. - Preparedness for Regulation: Companies that are prepared for regulatory changes will likely fare better, while those unprepared may struggle. 5/ General Advice for Investors 🤝 - Caution Against Pump-and-Dump: Investors should be wary of schemes designed to inflate and then rapidly deflate crypto values. - Focus on Established Cryptocurrencies: Beginners are advised to start with well-established cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum before exploring the broader market. Concluding remarks? 📝 The crypto market is in a dynamic phase, with potential regulatory and market changes ahead. That's why investors should remain cautious, stay informed about regulatory developments, and know the speculative nature of the market. Watch the full video here (in PL): https://lnkd.in/dtc_BHqg

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On average, Poles make 1.5 million #BLIK phone transfers a day! 🚀📈 In the first half of 2024 our users made 132 m of such transactions. We have reached in this field 55 percent growth YoY. 📈 Moreover, the value of mobile phone transfers amounted to 282.7 billion PLN [66.1 bn EUR]. The average transaction was 153 PLN [35 EUR]. 💲 You can find more info here: https://lnkd.in/dbsncWhA #transfers #P2P #transactions

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