Currency Analysis & Comment

The dollar’s rebound faces a key test as traders assess Fed expectations, geopolitics, and slowing spending. With inflation cooling and rate-cut bets rising, markets eye jobs data for policy...

As markets assess the implications of the Zelenskyy-Trump clash on Friday, the focus today is whether US tariffs on Mexico and Canada will go ahead. The FX market is not pricing in 25% duties as a...

In response to criticism of tariff 'confusion', President Trump stepped in emphatically yesterday to announce that tariffs would be going ahead on Canada, Mexico, and China next Tuesday. That's the...

The US dollar has come under some pressure on the back of the rerating of the US growth outlook and expectations that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is nearing an end. However, we expect US tariffs to...

FX volatility levels remain close to two-month lows as investors weigh up dominant themes. The possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine certainly plays a role, judging by the pricing of assets in...

EUR/USD remains resilient after dipping below 1.05, hinting at a potential breakout. Weak US data and stagflation fears fuel Fed rate cut bets, pressuring the dollar. A break above 1.0500 could pave...

The German election results initially boosted optimism, but uncertainty over coalition talks is keeping pressure on EUR/USD. Trump's confirmation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada increased safe-haven...

Trump said yesterday that tariffs on Mexico and Canada are still on the table ahead of next Monday’s deadline. Markets remain reluctant to price that in for now, and some soft US consumer confidence...

The US dollar has given up all its gains for the week as soft data and US earnings seem to be casting doubts on the notion of US exceptionalism. The USD/JPY is the big winner, receiving extra help...

The standout move in overnight FX markets has been the drop in USD/JPY close to 150 as traders get excited about another hike from the Bank of Japan. Expect USD/JPY to stay offered today before...

Optimism over Ukraine peace talks is offsetting the impact of Trump’s tariff threats, keeping the euro’s downside limited for now. The 1.0400-1.0430 range is acting as support, while 1.0480-1.0500...

Markets continue to carefully assess the implications of Russia-US talks, but we are observing an emerging trend of euro underperformance linked to Trump’s growing isolationism against EU allies....

Robust economic data from Japan bolsters declines in USD/JPY. Uncertainty surrounds Donald Trump's tariff policy. 151 test looms after failed attack at 155. Get the AI-powered monthly updated list...

Should Russia and Ukraine ultimately reach a peace deal, the US dollar is probably due another moderate correction – but for now, markets are lacking tangible bearish USD drivers and we think the...