Sebastian Manhart

🚨Calling all climate researchers! EXPECT partners will be hosting a session at the #EGU2025 on Attribution & Prediction of #ClimateChange. The session convened by Markus Donat, Dim Coumou, Christian Lessig, Antje Weisheimer at #EGU2025 will explore the attribution and prediction of climate change, both regionally and globally. If your work touches on these areas, you can pitch in with your abstract! Contributions are welcome on:   👉Attributing drivers of specific climate phenomena and extremes (e.g., atmospheric circulation and surface extremes during the boreal summer)  👉Evaluating climate responses to various forcings and internal variability  👉Correcting biased climate models with process-based constraints  👉Calibrating predictions and projections of future climate  👉Leveraging AI and innovative data analysis techniques  The deadline is 15 January 2025, 13:00 CET. Don’t miss out! 🔗 https://bit.ly/3CHALPa  #ClimateScience #ClimatePrediction #AIinClimate #ClimateChange

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I've been tracking climate science since the 1980s. The most dangerous thing about it is those smooth curves, with their 10th and 90th centiles spreading gracefully around them. They imply a gradual, predictable process, and that we are somehow in control. Ask anyone British if the weather is predictable and they'll laugh. And when you approach it from a risk management perspective, the question isn't "what's likely, what is the 10th-90th centile?", it's "What is the worst that can happen?" This article is deeply disturbing, because the worst that can happen is very bad indeed, and is much closer than anyone expected, because (as seems to be the case too often) the statistical "fat tail" is fatter than predicted. Also because ocean plastic pollution acts as a threat multiplier. The best paragraph is saved 'till last: “We think of climate change as being this kind of fairly steady progression of change in average conditions,” he said. “I think that we’ve learned, even since 2022, that there are also big changes in extreme events.” https://buff.ly/49189vh

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The third working group of the IPCC focused on mitigation and climate change. There's a rapidly closing window to cut emissions in order to keep within 1.5C. First, as of time of issuing report, 80% of the carbon budget for 1.5 had already been used. Only 20% remained. Also, peaking of emissions needed to happen between 2020-2025. That's yet to happen. It is of course better to remain below 1.5 than overshoot and come back later. These are some of the insights from the report, the rest of which I summarized below. Have a look: #mitigation #climateaction #climatechange #wgiii #ar6 https://lnkd.in/dwnpkKnS

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As members of the Energy Transitions Commission, their latest briefing “Credible Contributions: Bolder Plans for Higher Climate Ambition in the Next Round of NDCs” showcases the opportunity to limit the impact of #ClimateChange by raising ambitions in the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) due at #COP30 in Brazil. Through industry and government collaboration and the #technology available, progress towards a #NetZero economy is both technically and economically possible. Download the report: https://lnkd.in/eQfdmpgj. #TriplingAmbition #CredibleContributions

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🌏Leveraging Technology Action Plans for ambitious climate action - The Role of #technology and how to increase #NDC ambitions. At the Bonn #ClimateChange Conference, key speakers underscored the importance of Technology Needs Assessments (#TNA) and Technology Action Plans in boosting climate ambitions and attracting essential investments. At the #JuneClimateMeeting event, speakers from countries, the United Nations, and international climate organizations emphasized the need for tailored support, capacity building, and the integration of TNAs into national policies to achieve meaningful #climateaction. Through the TNA project, UNEP Copenhagen Climate Centre has supported over 100 countries in their #ClimateTech journey, helping them determine their technology pri­orities for mitigating and adapting to #climatechange. Learn more about our work and how we are enabling countries to enhance their climate ambitions: 👉 https://lnkd.in/d3WddZn8 Sara Lærke Meltofte Trærup, Aysel Rzayeva, Saravanee Singtong, Pedro Ivo Ferraz da Silva, Hansol Park, Filippo Berardi, Alla Metelitsa, Thibyan Ibrahim, Fred Onduri, Green Climate Fund, Global Environment Facility, UN Environment Programme, UNIDO, UN Climate Change

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An emissions gap refers to the difference between collective emissions cuts in the NDCs and the emissions cuts needed for the least cost pathways to keep at 1.5/2C outlined in the IPCC sixth assessment report. Therefore, what is the difference between an emissions gap and an implementation gap? I wrote an in-depth summary of the last emissions gap report, covering 2023. Where are we as the world?See: #emissionsgap2023 #emissionsgap #implementationgap #climatechange #climateaction https://lnkd.in/dVVJYHnp

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The Climate Action Monitor 2024 Prepared by the OECD - OCDE, "The Climate Action Monitor 2024" offers an in-depth examination of #globalclimateactiontrends, focusing on policy evolution, mitigation efforts, and adaptation strategies to address #climatechallenges. This annual report assesses progress toward #climatetargets, identifying areas for acceleration and the effectiveness of international cooperation. Key Findings 1. Global Emissions Trajectory The report indicates that while some countries have made strides in reducing #greenhousegasemissions, #globalemissions continue to rise due to economic pressures and reliance on #fossilfuels. Achieving the #ParisAgreement targets requires more robust and coordinated actions, especially from high-emitting nations. 2. Policy Innovations and Challenges   #governments are increasingly implementing innovative climate policies, from #carbonpricing mechanisms to sector-specific regulations. However, disparities in policy adoption and enforcement hinder global progress. The OECD underscores the importance of regulatory consistency and cross-border collaboration to support fair and efficient climate action. 3. Economic Implications    Climate policies significantly impact economies, with both challenges and opportunities emerging. The report highlights green growth strategies as essential for balancing economic resilience and environmental sustainability, emphasizing that effective climate action can drive long-term economic benefits. 4. Climate Finance and Support for Developing Nations    Financial flows to support climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries remain insufficient. "The Climate Action Monitor 2024" advocates for increased funding commitments from developed nations, along with transparent reporting and enhanced accountability in #climatefinancedistribution. 5. Technological Innovation and Decarbonization  Advances in #cleanenergytechnology, #carboncapture, and #energyefficiency are pivotal to #decarbonization. However, scaling these technologies demands greater public and private investment, alongside #policy support to foster rapid deployment and #innovation. Conclusion The OECD calls for accelerated, unified global efforts to close the emissions gap and meet climate targets. Key recommendations include enhancing international partnerships, increasing climate finance, and adopting policies that encourage sustainable growth. *The Climate Action Monitor 2024* stresses that decisive and collective action is crucial to mitigating the impacts of climate change and fostering a resilient #globaleconomy.

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#ClimateNews💡 Climate Home News ▶️ "Countries failed to make progress on a post-2025 climate finance goal in Bonn", that would replace the existing commitment by developed countries to mobilise USD 100 billion per year for developing countries. ▶️ "Representatives of countries on both sides expressed disappointment with the process intended to result in an agreement on a new collective quantified goal (NCQG) at COP29 in Baku in November". ▶️ "For most developing countries, the sticking point is the lack of negotiations on the size of the new goal – known as the 'quantum' in technical language". 👉 Read the full article here:  https://lnkd.in/edC8-U5M #NewCollectiveQuantifiedGoal #NCQG #COP29 #Climate #FinanceGoals

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The market will not solve forests (or water or anything). Market-based schemes not reducing deforestation, poverty: Report Market-based approaches to forest conservation like carbon offsets and deforestation-free certification schemes have largely failed to protect trees or alleviate poverty, according to a major scientific review published on Monday. https://lnkd.in/dAQBKge4

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❗Funding for early stage carbon dioxide removal (#CDR) startups❗ 🔊 Milkywire’s latest Call for Proposals is live, inviting early-stage CDR suppliers to step forward and drive innovation. 🤔 What makes this call unique? Alongside Frontier, it’s one of the only initiatives specifically designed to support very early-stage CDR suppliers. It’s about more than purchases, it’s about expanding the ecosystem, sparking innovation, and ensuring no promising solution is left behind. By the numbers: ✅ 230 submissions were received in last year’s call, evidence of the growing momentum in this space. ✅ Milkywire, Frontier, and Microsoft lead the way as the most active buyers in the ecosystem, purchasing from more suppliers than anyone else. ✅ First buyers matter: Milkywire were the first buyers for: 80% of Direct Air Capture (#DAC) companies 85% of Enhanced Rock Weathering (#ERW) projects 75% of Ocean and River Alkalinity Enhancement suppliers (#OAE) 📊 To date, Milkywire, WRLD Foundation, and Klarna have purchased credits for €6m from 27 suppliers across 9 methods, many of which are shaping the future of carbon removal. 🥅 The goal? Not just offsetting but building a durable carbon removal ecosystem that delivers scalable impact. 🔗 Apply now by January 19th 2025: https://lnkd.in/gTrW4pPN 👏 Shout-out to Robert Höglund und his team for their continuous efforts to scale the Climate Transformation Fund.

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"Voluntary carbon standard Verra confirmed it plans to release guidance for projects on the Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) by the end of the quarter after the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) published its latest eligibility decision on methodologies that saw nearly one-third of the market blocked from the high-integrity stamp." This means that some methodologies will be wiped out & further restrictions in terms of additionality will apply, the down side this will wipe some methodologies & make the process of issuing credits harder. The Upside, More Trust subsequently with less credits being issued, prices will go up.

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Here's to the boring stuff that will make all the difference! When world leaders gather in #NY on climate week to raise the alarm bells on what we can do more, sooner - freshwater is the answer. This disproportionally productive carbon sink is one if the main keys the world holds to fighting global warming. There's not a moment to lose! #water #envirinment #globalwarming #climateweek

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🔍 More evidence of #carbonpricing in action: the #EUETS induced covered firms to reduce 📉 CO2 emissions relative to unregulated firms by 14% during trading phase I & 16% in trading phase II, with no detectable negative effects on economic output or employment. ☁ CO2 Emissions fell 5.4m tonnes on average between 2005-2012. 🌲 Cleaner production investments was the prevailing abatement mechanism among regulated firms, with little evidence of carbon leakage. https://lnkd.in/eRqxk9m9

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GHG Protocol and SBTi are the guides... (you need for credible climate action.) Together, they empower businesses to: - measure - reduce - report emissions (aligned with climate science). What do they do? The HOW GHG Protocol provides the framework for calculating emissions across: 👉 Scope 1 → Direct emissions from operations. 👉 Scope 2 → Indirect emissions from energy use. 👉 Scope 3 → All other indirect emissions in the value chain. The WHAT & WHY SBTi uses the GHG Protocol to set and validate science-based emission reduction targets that align with: 🌍 Paris Agreement goals. 📉 Decarbonization pathways for 1.5°C. Why do they matter? ↳ Standardized measurement and reporting. ↳ Highlight scope 3 emissions (the biggest part of a company’s footprint). ↳ Align actions with global climate goals (low- carbon models). ↳ Push for direct reductions over offsets. The future? Upcoming GHG Protocol updates will enhance methodologies and further support SBTi's science-based approach. P.S. Is your company still not using these frameworks? DM and book a consultation call. #ClimateAction #GHGProtocol #SBTi #Sustainability #NetZero

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📢 Public Comment Period Now Open! 🌍 Every project seeking to register in a Verra standards program undergoes a 30-day public comment period. The public comment periods for the projects listed here opened during the week of November 4. This week's listing includes projects seeking registration and/or verification in the Verified Carbon Standard (VCS) the Climate, Community & Biodiversity Standards (CCBS), the Sustainable Development Verified Impact Standard (SD VISta), and the Plastic Waste Reduction Standard Programs. The projects are located in various geographic regions, including Papua New Guinea, Vietnam, South Africa, Cambodia, Spain, and more. They are implementing a broad range of activities, including activities related to domestic waste power generation, REDD+, recycling, and clean cookstoves. 🌱 Impact Highlight: Collectively, these projects could reduce and/or remove at least 18,823,317 tCO2e annually from the atmosphere, helping to accelerate our transition to a more sustainable future. 🔗 Learn More: View the full list of projects open for public comment in our announcement: https://bit.ly/48OKVcM 🗣️ Get Involved: Share your thoughts and contribute to shaping these projects. Your feedback matters! #ClimateAction #CarbonMarkets #Verra #SustainableDevelopment #CarbonCredits #CircularEconomy Photo by Lisa Murray, Bale Mountain Eco Region REDD+ (Verra Project 1340).

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