SpaceX progress toward 175-180 Falcon launches in 2025

[AmigaClone]

Just some statistics'

SpaceX is using a fleet of 18 boosters.
Since they fly every 2 days, it means the boosters cycle every 36 days, on average.  Actual turn-around time has to be better than that since there are bumps in the schedule.

At 20 flights/booster, they're good for roughly 2 years.  At 40, they're good for 4 years.

A good fraction of this fleet is therefore going to last till F9 retirement, certainly the new ones.

Nearly four boosters have 25-29 launches, and another 4 have 20-24 launches. That accounts for nearly half the current fleet that could see retirement within 18 months.
 
While I agree that some of the current fleet might reach F9 retirement, that is no guarantee. The number of F9 that in theory could reach the retirement will actually depend on how fast the issues with Starship are resolved, and Starlink launches (which has comprised roughly 2/3s of F9 launches since 2022) is completely transferred over to Starship.

[DanClemmensen]

Just some statistics'

SpaceX is using a fleet of 18 boosters.
Since they fly every 2 days, it means the boosters cycle every 36 days, on average.  Actual turn-around time has to be better than that since there are bumps in the schedule.

At 20 flights/booster, they're good for roughly 2 years.  At 40, they're good for 4 years.

A good fraction of this fleet is therefore going to last till F9 retirement, certainly the new ones.

Nearly four boosters have 25-29 launches, and another 4 have 20-24 launches. That accounts for nearly half the current fleet that could see retirement within 18 months.
 
While I agree that some of the current fleet might reach F9 retirement, that is no guarantee. The number of F9 that in theory could reach the retirement will actually depend on how fast the issues with Starship are resolved, and Starlink launches (which has comprised roughly 2/3s of F9 launches since 2022) is completely transferred over to Starship.

Also depends on the number they will expend as needed for special mission profiles, and the number lost during landing or recovery.

[catdlr]

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1944290693566148838

Congrats @SpaceX team on 500 orbital spaceflight missions!

[steveleach]

13 launches in July, against my prediction of 15, bringing the total for the first seven months to 94.

[meekGee]

We missed the most important poll of them all. At what year and month will everybody just stop caring about how many flights Falcon had in the previous month? I mean, we can't even maintain mission updates with properly anymore.

[alugobi]

Build it and they will come.

Predict it and they will count.

[redneck]

We missed the most important poll of them all. At what year and month will everybody just stop caring about how many flights Falcon had in the previous month? I mean, we can't even maintain mission updates with properly anymore.

I used to watch most Falcon flights from the yard. Quit doing that sometime last year. I'll still watch if convenient and I remember, but making a point of it is gone.

[AmigaClone]

We missed the most important poll of them all. At what year and month will everybody just stop caring about how many flights Falcon had in the previous month? I mean, we can't even maintain mission updates with properly anymore.

I would say about six months after one of the following:

1) The monthly average of Starship (or another orbital launch vehicle), over twelve-months, passes the highest number of Falcon 9 launches in a month.

2) About six months after the quarterly average number of Falcon 9 launches over the previous twelve months returns to single digits.

For #1 to occur, there would be at least 192 launches in twelve months by a non-Falcon 9 orbital launch vehicle.

The last time Falcon 9 had on average less than 10 launches per quarter over twelve months period was sometime in early 2022.

[rockets4life97]

We missed the most important poll of them all. At what year and month will everybody just stop caring about how many flights Falcon had in the previous month?

I already stopped. Probably 2 years back or so when F9 got over once a week.
I just check in here for the quarterly reports.

[Brigantine]

That was #100 for 2025. (Starlink 17-5)

Worthy milestone on it's own. Rare albeit not unprecedented

[meekGee]

Well FWIW, the wiki flight list is still alive and keeping track...

[AmigaClone]

That was #100 for 2025. (Starlink 17-5)

Worthy milestone on it's own. Rare albeit not unprecedented

This is only the second time an orbital launch vehicle has launched 100+ times in a calendar year.

The first time Falcon 9 launched 100 times in 365 days was in December 2023.

Not sure the last time a Falcon 9 launched less than 100 times in 365 days - but that likely was early 2024.

[Metalskin]

We missed the most important poll of them all. At what year and month will everybody just stop caring about how many flights Falcon had in the previous month? I mean, we can't even maintain mission updates with properly anymore.

100% agree. I tend to check every few months. The cadence now is so high that my interest has waned. I still find it interesting, just not as interesting as it once was.

[wannamoonbase]

We missed the most important poll of them all. At what year and month will everybody just stop caring about how many flights Falcon had in the previous month? I mean, we can't even maintain mission updates with properly anymore.

100% agree. I tend to check every few months. The cadence now is so high that my interest has waned. I still find it interesting, just not as interesting as it once was.

I am constantly in awe of the upmass.  However, I don't pay close attention to starlink launches but I do find non Starlink launches interesting.

[Comga]

That was #100 for 2025. (Starlink 17-5)

Worthy milestone on it's own. Rare albeit not unprecedented

This is only the second time an orbital launch vehicle has launched 100+ times in a calendar year.

The first time Falcon 9 launched 100 times in 365 days was in December 2023.

Not sure the last time a Falcon 9 launched less than 100 times in 365 days - but that likely was early 2024.

You are correct.
SpaceX Falcon launches (Plotted but including Starship, sorry) in the preceding 365(.25) days passed 100 in January of 2024 and has not gone below that level again.