Abstract

Background: Prognostic models for patients with chronic heart failure are generally based on a single assessment but treatment is often given with the intention of changing risk; re- evaluation of risk is an important aspect of care. The prognostic value of serial measurements of natriuretic peptides for the assessment of changes in risk is uncertain. Aims: To evaluate the prognostic value of serial measurements of plasma amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) during follow-up of out-patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods: Patients diagnosed with CHF between 2001 and 2014 at a single out-patient clinic serving a local community were included in this analysis. NT-proBNP was measured at the initial visit and serially during follow-up. Only patients who had one or more measurements of NT-proBNP after baseline, at 4, 12 and/or 24 months were included. Results: At baseline, amongst 1,998 patients enrolled, the median age was 73 (IQR: 64-79) years, 70% were men, 31% were in NYHA class III/IV, 58% had a reduced ejection fraction and 77% had NT-proBNP >400 pg/ml. Median follow-up was 4.8 (IQR 2.5-8.6) years. Serial measurements of NT-proBNP improved prediction of all-cause mortality at 3 years (c- statistic=0.71) compared with using baseline data only (c-statistic=0.67; p<0.001) but a model using only the most recent NT-proBNP had an even higher c-statistic (0.72; p<0.001). Similar results were obtained based on long-term prediction of mortality using all available follow-up data. Conclusions: Serial measurement of NT-proBNP in patients with CHF improves prediction of all-cause mortality. However, using the most recent value of NT-proBNP has similar predictive power as using serial measurements.