SUNDAY AM: Marvel Studios‘ Captain America: Brave New World came in slightly better on Saturday with $27.5M from what we saw last night; this is from the extra ticket sales that roll into Comscore overnight. Rivals firmly believe that we have the first $100M opener on hand for 2025’s domestic B.O., and Disney believes that as well. Global opening is at $192.4M which is roughly $2M higher than where Nancy and I spotted it.
For a B- CinemaScore MCU movie — a $100M opening? We’ll take it. Very good job, Disney.
Box office stat firm EntTelligence says 5.7M people went to see Captain America: Brave New World over the 3-day ($88.5M) off average ticket prices of $15.17 (general) and $18.60 (general PDF). In regards to Saturday’s business, 51% of the crowd went to see Brave New World before 5PM.
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Brave New World‘s opening is the fourth biggest Presidents Day weekend ever giving the MCU all four of the top openings: Black Panther ($242M), Deadpool ($152M) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($120M). Brave New World is the 35th consecutive Marvel Cinematic Universe movie to open at No. 1 at the domestic box office.
One thing that’s certain about Disney, even though this Captain America may not have been widely loved as other MCU movies, the studio knew they had a tentpole and spent on it. They didn’t underspend like some other studios might when they see a B- CinemaScore coming. iSpot shows that Disney spent around $22M in linear spot ads that pulled in 926M household TV impressions.
The Brave New World campaign centered around the MCU journey of Anthony Mackie’s Sam Wilson, while highlighting military appreciation, Harrison Ford’s appearance, and of course, Red Hulk.
The top networks by impressions were ESPN, ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC with Brave New World ads running during NFL, College football, ESPN SportsCenter, the Super Bowl Pregame and Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin Eve.
Brave New World cross-promotions included Tide ($8 million), which developed a unique spot centered around the idea that superhero action may cause messes, so civilians in the MCU may experience “collateral stains.” Tide hosted a “Collateral Stains Screening” in NYC where attendees were among the first to see the film. The catch? The audience watched the movie all while experiencing stains as if they were on the periphery of the action. After the 4D experience, guests went home with Tide products to clean their clothes.
Microsoft Copilot ($693K) had a custom spot with star Danny Ramirez where his character, Falcon, utilizes the MS device to level up his wing designs.
Other cross-promotions were McDonald’s ($1.3 million), American Family Insurance ($127K) and Barbasol ($9K). Per Tubular Labs, Marvel-published YouTube videos for Captain America: Brave New World have garnered 115 million views since last year.
Peloton was another promo partner for the film, the exercise cycle brand encouraging its members and fans to “Train Like a Superhero.” Themed rides and classes programmed around the film release capped off with a live ride at Peloton’s NYC studio with Mackie. A GMC custom clip spot showcased the Hummer EV featured in the film. Top Golf also hosted a Block Party experience at all venues Feb. 1 – April 13 including a national in-venue sweepstakes, limited menu items and an enhanced golf experience.
There were myriad stunts for social, i.e. a drone show at Paris Disneyland.
Other stats on Captain…Imax screens at around 400 delivered 10.4% of the 3-day business with $9.2M through EOD today; $10.5M running total through Monday. PLFs and Imax combined are driving 37% of business. AMC Disney Springs in Orlando is still the top venue with over $172K.
The Sony distributed StudioCanal Paddington in Peru is a tad higher from where we spotted it last night at $4.2M on Saturday for a $13M 3-day, $16M 4-day.
Total weekend for four day for all movies is figured at $178.2M, +89% over the same period a year ago when Paramount’s Bob Marley: One Love led the weekend with a $33.6M.
Sunday reported figures:
1.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 4,105 theaters, Fri $40M, Sat $27.5M Sun $21M Mon $11.5M 3-day $88.5M, 4-day $100M/Wk 1
2.) Paddington in Peru (Sony) 3,890 theaters, Fri $5.1M Sat $4.2M Sun $3.6M Mon $3M 3-day $13M, 4-day $16M/Wk 1
3.) Dog Man (Dis) 3,334 (-553) theaters, Fri $2.77M (-15%) Sat $3.75M Sun $3.1M Mon $2.7M 3-day $9.7M (-30%), 4-day $12.5M, Total $69.5M/Wk 3
4.) Heart Eyes (Sony) 3,102 theaters, Fri $4.9M (+33%) Sat $3M Sun $2.1M Mon $1.1M 3-day $10M (+20%) 4-day $11.1M, Total $22.6M/Wk 2
5.) Ne Zha 2 (CMC) 660 theaters, Fri $3.1M Sat $2.3M Sun $1.8M Mon $1M 3-day $7.3M 4-day $8.3M, Wk 1
6.) Mufasa (Dis) 2,240 (-705) theaters, Fri $1.5M (+46%) Sat $1.5M Sun $1.1M Mon $1.1M 3-day $4.1M (+3%) 4-day $5.26M, Total $241.8M /Wk 9
7.) Love Hurts (Uni) 3,055 theaters Fri $1.97M (-25%) Sat $1.3M Sun $1M Mon $630K 3-day $4.37M (-25%) 4-day $5M, Total $12.9M/Wk 2
8.) One of Them Days (Tri-Star/Sony) 1,357 (-694) locations, Fri 1.2M (+26%) Sat $1M Sun $685K Mon $340K 3-day $2.97M (+4%) 4-day $3.3M, Total $43.8M/Wk 5.
9.) Companion (NL/WB) 1,062 (-2,223) theaters, Fri $770K (-27%) Sat $610K Sun $490K Mon $320K 3-day $1.87M (-38%), 4-day $2.19M, Total $19.08M/Wk
10.) Chhhaava (Yash) 497 theaters, Fri $500K Sat $700K Sun $590K Mon $330K 3-day $1.8M, 4-day $2.1M/Wk 1
SATURDAY PM: Disney/Marvel Studio’s Captain America: Brave New World posted a solid estimated Saturday of $27M, -33% off Friday/previews $40M. While mid-to-high $90Ms is safe place for four days, there is a possible path to $100M if the Anthony Mackie movie can best some of the holds of Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania. That is if Brave New World posts a Sunday’s that better than Ant-Man 3‘s -24% ($20.5M), and a Presidents Day holiday that’s better than -45% ($11.5M). 3-day for Brave New World lies around $87M. The fourth Captain America movie carries a production cost before P&A of $180M. I’m told that break-even for the movie lies around $425M global box office.
Sony’s Paddington in Peru is till No. 2 with a $4M Saturday, -22% from Friday, an estimated 3-day of $12.6M with a $16M 4-day destination.
Third goes to Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man with a $3.7M Saturday, +34%, a 3-day of $9.6M (-30%), 4-day of $12.4M and running total of $69.4M. That eighteen day-cume will be 18% ahead of the 2017 Dav Pilkey feature, Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie at the same point in time ($58.7M). That movie ended its domestic run at $73.9M.
Fourth belongs to Screen Gems/Spyglass Heart Eyes with an estimated $3M today, -39% and a second weekend of $10M (+20%) and a4-day of $11.2M for a running cume of $22.7M by EOD Monday.
Ne Zha 2 is fifth with $2.5M today, -19% from Friday, and an outlook of $7.9M and $8.9M.
The above figures are all industry estimates, they aren’t studio reported.
UPDATE: Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World after a very solid estimated $40M Friday/previews has a shot at flying past $100M for the 4-day per industry estimates. The current range for the MCU sequel’s 4-day ranges between $95M-$109M. These are estimates. Disney believes the figure is between $90M-$96M. The studio typically won’t call $100M until they see it, which would be by tonight.
If Brave New World falls back into the $90M-$96M range, it’s because rivals got excited in calling a $100M 4-day off the steamy Valentine’s Day. At that range, it’s the best start we’ve seen so far in 2025. What studio doesn’t want a $90M-$96M+ opening for their movie? Anyone? Bueller? Currently, Warner Bros’ every expensive Bong Joon Ho directed sci-fi epic Mickey 17 is tracking in the high teens for a March 7. The review embargo following its Berlin premiere lifts today, and hopefully and those will trigger some sort of Robert Eggers box office cinefile stampede for the Oscar winning Parasite filmmaker’s latest.
Brave New World‘s first Friday/previews are not that far behind that of 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania ($46.4M, 3-day $106.1M), and it’s ahead of 2014’s Guardians of the Galaxy ($37.8M, $94.3M 3-day) and Captain America: Winter Soldier ($36.9M).
However, hopefully word of mouth doesn’t bend Cap‘s shield as this is one of the worst CinemaScores for a Marvel character movie with a B- on par with Ang Lee’s battered 2003 Hulk which Marvel Boss Kevin Feige was an EP on (the pic was released via Universal before Disney even thought of buying Marvel). Note, Sony/Marvel’s Madame Web and Kraven the Hunter carry the lowest grades for a Marvel character movie with respectively a C+ and C. Brave New World‘s B- is lower than the MCU titles which fans turned cold on, i.e. Eternals (B), The Marvels (B) and Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (B).
Ironically, as we talk about superhero fatigue, here’s Brave New World boldly overperforming to a degree, and that’s because it’s the only tentpole out there. Just don’t try to do a Captain America: Brave New World 2, Marvel.
Latest exits on Brave New World show 62% Male / 38% Female with 9% of the audience between 13-17 years old, 20% of the audience between 18-24 years old, 29% of the audience between 25-34 years old (largest demo) and 42% of the audience 35+ years old. Strong diversity turnout with 35% Caucasian, 26% Latino and Hispanic, 23% Black and 10% Asian. PLF and IMAX screens are contributing 37% of the weekend’s business so far. The pic is playing coast-to-coast with AMC Disney Springs in Orlando the highest grossing cinema in the nation with $109K through Friday.
Valentine’s Day, which is typically a strong day for moviegoing, rang up $66.4M this year, however, 61% of that business was from Cap. While most titles filed in the single digits, Screen Gems/Spyglass’ Heart Eyes second Friday ranked third with about as much money as Sony/StudioCanal’s first Friday of Paddington in Peru — $5M. The bear is looking at $16M to $17.5M for the four-day opening weekend and $13.2M-$14.4M for 3-day). Out of all holdovers in the top ten, Heart Eyes will have the strongest 3-day percentile lift at +18% (or $9.8M/4-day is $11M), applaudable for a B- CinemaScore horror film. Compare this to the third weekend of New Line’s wonderfully received B+ genre title Companion which looks to be down -33% with $2M in 10th place.
Paddington in Peru gets an A Cinemascore,with kids under 12 grading it an 85% positive and 60% must see right away on PostTrak. Mom skewing at 52% with 17% of the audience between 13-17 years old, 27% of the audience between 18-24 years old, 32% of the audience between 25-34 years old (biggest demo) and 24% of the audience 35+ years old. Diversity demos are 52% Caucasian, 21% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black, 14% Asian. The heartland is a big driver of business with AMC Century City the best multiplex stateside with $13K so far.
1.) Captain America: Brave New World (Dis) 4,105 theaters, Fri $40M, 3-day $87M, 4-day $95M-$109M/Wk 1
2.) Paddington in Peru (Sony) 3,890 theaters, Fri $5.1M, 3-day $13.2M-$14.4M, 4-day $16M-$17.5M/Wk 1
3.) Dog Man (Dis) 3,334 (-553) theaters, Fri $2.77M (-15%) 3-day $10.25M (-26%), 4-day $13.35M, Total $70.4M/Wk 3
4.) Heart Eyes (Sony) 3,102 theaters, Fri $4.9M (+33%), 3-day $9.8M (+18%) 4-day $11M, Total $22.5M/Wk 2
5.) Ne Zha 2 (CMC) 660 theaters, Fri $3.1M 3-day $6.4M 4-day $7.2M, Wk 1
The $1.4 billion grossing Chinese animated movie lands in the U.S./Canada with commendable ticket sales in Vancouver, Toronto, LA, NYC, San Francisco, Montreal, Boston and Seattle.
6.) Mufasa (Dis) 2,240 (-705) theaters, Fri $1.5M (+46%), 3-day $4M (Even) 4-day $5.9M, Total $242.4M /Wk 9
7.) Love Hurts (Uni) 3,055 theaters Fri $1.97M (-25%), 3-day $4.9M (-16%) 4-day $5.6M, Total $13.5M/Wk 2
8.) One of Them Days (Tri-Star/Sony) 1,357 (-694) locations, Fri 1.2M (+26%), 3-day $2.75M (-4%) 4-day $3M, Total $43.5M/Wk 5.
9.) Companion (NL/WB) 1,062 (-2,223) theaters, Fri $770K (-27%) 3-day $2M (-33%), 4-day $2.3M, Total $19.1M/Wk
10.) Flight Risk (LG) 1,414 (-1,326) theaters, Fri $630K, 3-day $1.88M (-27%), 4-day $2.17M, Total $28.4M/Wk 4
11.) Chhhaava (Yash) 497 theaters, Fri $500K 3-day $1.5M, 4-day $1.7M/Wk 1
Good numbers in Toronto, San Francisco, Boston, Seattle, DC, Chicago, NYC and Atlanta for the Laxman Utekar historical drama about the life of Chhatrapati Sambhaji Maharaj, the son of Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj.
UPDATED, Friday midday: It’s Valentine’s Day and even though there aren’t any female skewing movies on the marquee such as Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy, it’s still bound to be a big moviegoing day even though we have the dude-skewing Captain America: Brave New World. The Anthony Mackie movie is expected to do around $39M today, which includes last night’s $12M, on its way to a 4-day of $90M+. Three-day is around $82M-$84M at 4,105. Day one for Captain America: Brave New World is higher than the first day/previews of Captain America: Winter Soldier which came in at $36.9M.
Oh, and Winter Storm Jett in the Northeast hasn’t closed theaters. And that mega rainstorm in LA dried up pretty quickly.
Even moms and kids are heading to matinees today with 24% K-12 off today and another 88% out on Monday per the Comscore school calendar. That puts StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru at $4.5M today, including last night’s $600K, for what’s looking like $12M-$13M for Fri-Sun, and $15M+ for the 4-day at 3,890 theaters.
Third is the third weekend of Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s Dog Man at 3,334 with $2.7M today, $10M for the weekend (-28%) and 4-day of $13M and a running cume of $70M.
Screen Gems/Spyglass’ Heart Eyes is eyeing around $3M+, around $7M for the 3-day and about $8M for the 4-day at 3,102 theaters in its second frame. The question is how steep is the fall-off after today? At this level, the 3-day is mindblowing at -16% hold, quite rare for a R-rated horror movie. Running cume by EOD Monday is just under $20M.
Fifth is the Chinese animated movie which is cleaning up in the Middle Kingdom, Ne Zha 2 which is looking at $3.2M today, $5.9M for the 3-day and $6.5M for the 4-day. At $1.37 billion in China, it’s the third best animated film ever worldwide per Nancy.
UPDATED, Friday AM: Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World came in where we spotted it — $12 million in previews.
StudioCanal/Sony’s Paddington in Peru clocked $600,000 yesterday. Keep in mind it’s a family movie. Thursday night previews started at 2 p.m. at 3,133 locations. The movie notched a great PostTrak scores of 4 stars for general, 4 1/2 stars for kids under 12, and a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of 94%. The hope is that the four-day total is around $15M.
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The first Paddington had a three-day total of $18.9M, while Paddington 2 posted $11M. Quorum believes the 3-day for the threequel is $12M-$15M (update). The pic has already cleared $104M abroad with $19M from Sony’s offshore territories.
PREVIOUS EXCLUSIVE: Neither Los Angeles rain nor Northeast snow are keeping audiences away from cinemas Thursday night as Disney/Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World, a continuation of both Disney+ series The Falcon and the Winter Soldier and 2008’s The Incredible Hulk, is eyeing $12 million after previews that began at 2 p.m. today.
Where does that stack up to other MCU titles? Well, it’s higher than 2014’s Captain America: Winter Soldier, which collected $10.2M in previews on its way to a $95M opening.
It’s also under the $17.5M previews of the last MCU title over Presidents’ Day weekend, 2023’s Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, which made its way to a $106.1M three-day total and $120.3M 4-day. Brave New World isn’t expected to traverse to Quantumania levels, with tracking pegging a $80M 3-day and $94M 4-day. Brave New World was always a grounded action film, nothing in the multiverse sense of the word, selling itself entire on Red Hulk (how appropriate for Valentine’s Day).
Bad news: Rotten Tomatoes critics got antsy while watching the Anthony Mackie movie, giving it a 52% critics score. Better news: Audiences on Thursday night gave it a tolerable 79% on RT. Early PostTrak from fans was a mixed bag at 3 stars, with kids under 12 loving the movie at 4 1/2 stars (62% boys). Audience make-up was 71% males, 29% female. Diversity demos were 32% Caucasian, 28% Hispanic and Latino, 19% Black and 15% Asian. Best scores came from women over 25 (71% grade), who were the second-biggest audience last night at 21% behind men over 25 at 56% who gave the Mackie movie a 64% grade.
Social media analytics corp RelishMix reports the social media universe for the Julius Onah-directed movie stands at just under 600 million, which is an average figure for superhero movies; Brave New World is running 21% below genre norms across TikTok, Facebook, X, YouTube and Instagram combined. Ya wanna know what the social media reach was for Deadpool & Wolverine before opening? Try 1.15 billion followers. Even Thor: Love & Thunder was at a high 963M-plus before that pic projected onto the screen to a massive $144.1M three-day opening in July 2022.
Mostly all of the cast on this Captain America are social and activated, except for non-social Harrison Ford. Mackie counted 5.4M fans across all platforms before opening, Liv Tyler stood at 7.2M, while Giancarlo Esposito was at 4M.
As far as chatter online, RelishMix says it’s mixed on Brave New World. Some fans are excited to see Mackie picking up the shield from Chris Evans, and who are destined to go because of Red Hulk. But “negative-leaning chatter on Captain America: Brave New World hears trembles from fans who feel Marvel has lost its way. Comments include, ‘I remember a time when I used to get hyped for a Marvel film. I saw this poster (and trailer) and felt nothing.’ and ‘I want the film to do well, but I can’t shake the feeling that this movie is just being sent out there to die. Prove me wrong, Disney.’ The jumps in tone are turning some off, sharing, ‘It’s nuts how this movie is simultaneously playing up the ‘grizzled espionage’ angle from Winter Soldier, but is also like CLAP FOR RED HULK,’ while others are pessimistically curious in the character of Sabra, given the character’s ties to Israel in the comics with the current geopolitical landscape in the Middle East.”
We’ll have more for you in Friday, when Brave New World opens in 4,100 theatres, including 400 Imax auditoriums, 950 Premium Large Format screens, 2,500+ 3D locations, 325 D-Box/4D motion screens and 100 ScreenX locations.
Disney didn’t respond to Deadline’s comment on the projections we were hearing tonight.