Martin Rose

📊 **ECB Faces Speculation on Market Intervention After French Elections** 📉 The European Central Bank (ECB) is facing growing speculation about a possible intervention in case of widespread market panic following the French elections, as political leaders prepare for their annual conference in Portugal next week. 🇫🇷🇪🇺 French bonds have been heavily sold in recent weeks, with investors fearing a victory for Marine Le Pen's National Rally or the left-wing New Popular Front in the upcoming legislative elections. Success for either of these extreme parties could trigger even more selling, with the gap between French and German borrowing costs – a key indicator of political risk – at its highest since the eurozone debt crisis more than a decade ago. 📉🇫🇷 German Finance Minister Christian Lindner has urged the ECB to stay on the sidelines, warning that any intervention to ease the financial turmoil after the French vote would raise economic and constitutional questions. But market observers are closely watching the ECB's latest bond-buying program to see what it might do if the next French government embarks on excessive spending, leading to damaging clashes with the EU and financial markets over its rising debt. 💶📊 Investors are particularly concerned that a massive sell-off of French debt could trigger contagion in other European countries, with national interest rates starting to diverge. Sabrina Khanniche, senior economist at Pictet Asset Management, states: "If the risk of fragmentation in France increased to alarming levels, the ECB would intervene to preserve the integrity of the euro." 🏦💱 The ECB has set up the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to help a country in crisis by buying unlimited amounts of its debt, hoping to keep markets balanced without having to use it. The French elections threaten to test the TPI for the first time, designed to counter disorderly market dynamics that threaten the eurozone's monetary policy. 🇪🇺📈 However, economists differ on whether the TPI could be applied to French bonds, particularly because the European Commission recently opened an excessive deficit procedure against Paris. Some believe this already excludes France from the TPI. Yet, ECB officials remain confident they have enough leeway to use the new mechanism even if a country officially breaches the EU's fiscal rules. 🏦📊 The ECB's annual meetings in Sintra, Portugal, will begin on Monday, just after the announcement of the results of the first round of the French legislative elections. ECB President Christine Lagarde, a former French minister, is expected to be questioned about the bank's potential response to a financial crisis coming from Paris. 🏨🇵🇹 🔗 [Learn More](https://lnkd.in/eh7vbPBB) #ECB #FinancialMarkets #FrenchElections #Euro #Economy #SovereignDebt #Investments #Eurozone

This is due to the national government’s tight fiscal space amid a series of typhoons that required calamity-related assistance. Meanwhile, the spike in subsidies in November could be partly attributed to the increased disbursement/utilization of budget after some government underspending earlier in 2024, especially in the third quarter of 2024. Election-related spending ahead of the 2025 midterm elections may have also caused the higher subsidies, as some government infrastructure projects and other programs need to be expedited before the election ban. https://lnkd.in/g4E7qrZq

Preference of sourcing its funds domestically over borrowing externally due to peso volatility increased the issuance of T-bills this year. The wider budget deficits recorded in some months as well as increased debt servicing amid maturities of government securities also prompted the government to borrow more through T-bills. Declining interest rates [also] improved the risk appetite of T-bill and Treasury bond investors, by locking in relatively higher yields before going down further amid possible further [US Federal Reserve] and [Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas] rate cuts in the coming months. https://lnkd.in/gPZFZmne

**"Trésor-Éco" Publication: Focus on the Economic Challenges of Artificial Intelligence** 📈 The April issue of "Trésor-Éco" has been released, shedding light on the economic impacts of artificial intelligence (AI) and its growing influence on the world of work. 🤖 AI is identified as a potential driver of individual productivity, although its adoption remains limited at the industrial level. 💼 Regarding employment, several dynamics are noteworthy: - Replacement of certain human functions by AI systems. - Potential reduction in workforce in skilled sectors such as programming and writing. - Increased risk for senior workers to be replaced by automated solutions. - AI allows for task redistribution, directing workers towards more rewarding and less strenuous tasks, thus contributing to workplace well-being. 🏛️ Regarding the role of public authorities, the article emphasizes the importance of fostering competition by removing barriers to AI diffusion. It also stresses the need to ensure access to adequate training for citizens so they can master these emerging technologies and adapt to labor market changes. For more details, check out the [April issue of Trésor-Éco](https://lnkd.in/eVwb-HMT). #ArtificialIntelligence #Economy #Work #Productivity #Training #PublicAuthorities #Innovation #TrésorÉco

However, it is interesting to note that the average 10-year Treasury bond average auction yield at 6.754 percent is lower by -0.0751 vs. the previous 10-year T-bond average auction yield of 6.825 percent on May 7, 2024 or a little over a month ago. https://lnkd.in/g9k-ZBMX

Following the release of #CUSN's PEA for the #SouthCrofty Tin Project, @theprojectblue published the linked article placing the positive economic & financial metrics of the project in context of the overall European #tin market. Worth a read: https://bit.ly/44Oytb0 #mining #juniormining #stockstowatch #stockstobuy #investing #criticalminerals #metals #energytransition

💼 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝗹 𝗘𝗖𝗢𝗙𝗜𝗡 𝗠𝗲𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗕𝘂𝗱𝗮𝗽𝗲𝘀𝘁 🇭🇺 From 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟮 𝘁𝗼 𝟭𝟰, 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰, European ministers of Economy and Finance will gather in 𝗕𝘂𝗱𝗮𝗽𝗲𝘀𝘁 for informal meetings, addressing three key topics for the EU's economic future: 1️⃣ 𝗡𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝘄-𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 with crucial support from the 𝗜𝗠𝗙. 2️⃣ 𝗦𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 🌱: On Friday, ministers will discuss strategies to bridge the financing gap by mobilizing private and public savings to ensure a green transition while reducing public debt. Experts from the 𝗢𝗘𝗖𝗗 and the Hungarian Debt Management Agency will present innovative financial instruments. 3️⃣ 𝗜𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗽𝗵𝗶𝗰 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘂𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗯𝗶𝗹𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗽𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗰 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁𝘀 👵👴: On Saturday morning, discussions will focus on the challenges posed by population aging, a major issue for the sustainability of public debt. The think tank 𝗕𝗿𝘂𝗲𝗴𝗲𝗹 will contribute to this strategic reflection. 🗣️ 𝗜𝗠𝗙 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: During the ministerial lunch, the IMF's Managing Director will present 𝗻𝗲𝘄 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗼𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 to help low-income countries address global challenges. For more information, consult the official event here 👉 [Informal ECOFIN Meetings](https://lnkd.in/eduBVrYZ) #ECOFIN #GreenTransition #DemographicChallenge #SustainableFinancing #IMF #EuropeanUnion #Budapest2024

📊 **Progress Report: FIDA** 📊 The Belgian presidency has submitted its progress report on FIDA to COREPER, a 189-page document containing the presidency's drafting proposals and underlying reasoning. **Key Consensus Points:** • **Gradual introduction of customer data (Article 2)**: General agreement for a phased approach with a clear end date for access to all data, rather than a use-case approach. The scope of this approach is still under discussion. Two proposed options: - Market-driven approach (schemes decide which data to share first) - Legislator-driven approach (phases defined in the regulation) Preference for the legislative approach, based on products. • **"FiDA-readiness" concept**: Determining which data to integrate first based on product standardization and digital availability. • **Functioning of financial data sharing systems**: Discussions on development period, implementation stages, scheme limitations, authority evaluations, and compensation principles. Clarification needed on the interaction between data access and schemes, with a proposal that data sharing only begins after compliance assessment. • **Safeguards against access controllers**: Consensus to strengthen safeguards. Proposal to add safeguards in Article 6 to prohibit gatekeepers from combining data without customer consent. Introduction of Article 18b on powers of national authorities and ESAs to assess gatekeeper activities. • **Exclusion of financial information service providers from third countries**: Consensus for exclusion, although the Commission rejects this option due to international trade agreements. Arguments for exclusion: client protection, prevention of data leaks, and security. The report also mentions a proposal from a Member State on "How to deal with the risk of demutualization," including the exclusion of certain natural risk-related data from FiDA's scope. Finally, as highlighted by the Spanish presidency in its progress report, there is a general willingness within the Council to proceed with caution, given the innovative nature of data sharing and its implications for the financial sector and consumer protection. 🔗 [Read the full report](https://lnkd.in/e5djUiKE) #Data #Blockchain #FIDA #Security #Innovation #Fintech #DataProtection #EU #Finance #Regulation

🔬 **Contribution of CEN and CENELEC to the Consultation on R&I Framework Programs** CEN and CENELEC have released their contribution to the consultation launched by the European Commission on European framework programs for research and innovation (R&I). According to these organizations, R&I framework programs are increasingly interested in the impact of R&I on the adoption of innovative solutions in industry and society to address global challenges. Standards can act as a catalyst for innovation and help researchers commercialize their innovative ideas. The analysis of the Horizon Europe 2021-2022 work programs identified 125 call themes referring to standardization. In their document, CEN and CENELEC propose recommendations for future "Horizon Europe" calls, including more references to standardization in the text or themes of the calls. Existing standards can be further examined to provide insights and guidance on best practices in innovation. CEN and CENELEC encourage the European Commission to consider their contribution for the strategic orientations of the Horizon Europe 2025-2027 plan. 📄 [CEN and CENELEC Document](https://lnkd.in/eFS8zskm) #R&I #HorizonEurope #Standardization #Innovation #Consultation #CEN #CENELEC