Katarzyna Beben

Excerpt, Hans Petter Midttun, Euro Maidan Press: //Fear is just an excuse for lack of commitment, for lack of #military capabilities after decades of downsizing, streamlining, and failure to invest in #security and #defence, for empty stockpiles and the state of our Defence Industrial Base. #Fear is used to buy us time as Ukraine is valiantly fighting to protect us. It hides political #cynicism, #populism, #naivety, #incompetence, #isolationism, a lack of #leadership, and #unity.  Western policy of restraint increases the risk of strategic miscalculations. Suppose we allow Russia to believe its #nuclear “fait accompli strategy” works. In that case, its battle of the minds continues to deter the West – and we run the risk that Russia will test the strategy on #NATO territory. Russia presently has no reason to believe that we will be less afraid to engage if it attacks a NATO member state. It is, therefore, of paramount importance that we prove Russia wrong in Ukraine. The West must escalate to #deescalate to gain the initiative and end the #war. No war has ever been won by refusing to confront the aggressor. The expressed fear of an escalation of a war that Russia continues to intensify is simply a reflection of our own moral and physical shortcomings. We should fear this, not fear itself.// The West must be willing to end the war and defeat Putin comprehensively. Continuing the attack will only serve to benefit Putin and his autocratic "allies." #ukraine #geopolitics

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How is Turkey still in NATO? If Israel believes that Turkey is about to attack it and takes preemptive action, under the NATO charter that an attack on one is an attack on all, does that mean the US has to defend Turkey over Israel? Turkey must be removed from NATO immediately.

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TRUMP WON. CEE CURRENCIES WEAKENED BUT HUNAGRIAN FORINT IS THE MOST VULNARABLE. WE ZOOM IN ON HUNGARY 🔎🔎🔎 Donald Trump is projected to become the next US president. The extent to which President Trump realizes his election promises will influence the economic and market development in Central and Eastern Europe. Depreciation of the Hungarian forint has been long-lasting. Over the last decade, the Hungarian forint has lost 30% against the euro. The weak economic performance in recent quarters, high likelihood of no fiscal consolidation before 2026 parliamentary elections and limited access to EU funds support higher EURHUF levels. We try to capture the share of variation coming from regional co-movements across currencies as well as impact of country-specific factors (monetary and fiscal policy as well as political situation). We find out that country-specific factors add to weakening pressure in Hungary, as opposed to Czechia and Poland. The weak Hungarian forint will tie the hands of the central bank, which otherwise could proceed with monetary easing (which could help to stimulate economic growth as well). Fundamentally, the surpluses on the trade and current account balances support the forint, but perhaps not enough to change the trend. The overall vulnerability demands maintaining the positive interest rate differential. Juraj Kotian Jakub Čery Orsolya Nyeste János Nagy #ErsteGroupResearch #Trump #CEEInsights

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🎭 When Stars Fade: Why Popular Russian Figures Are Under Sanctions in 2024 1️⃣ 4️⃣ EU Sanctions Package is already out. Among all the "usual" addings of close-to-military and aviation sector companies, it was quite a surprise to find out that there are celebrities a.k.a. propaganda-driven artists included. So why the brightest stars of Russia are suddenly finding their accounts frozen and trips to Milan and Paris canceled? 🚨 Political Pressure: Ah, how could we forget that celebrities are not just faces on magazine covers but influential political figures singing anthems and shaking hands with the notorious personas? Apparently, the best way to pressure the government is to deprive artists of their favorite expensive toys. What could be more effective than making a pop idol complain about international affairs on their stories? 🚨 Symbolic Gestures: Sanctions are the modern way of saying, "We disapprove of you." How else to express an opinion if not by freezing the assets of a beloved actor or banning their entry into countries where they love to film? 🚨 Economic Impact: It’s no secret that celebrities have substantial fortunes. But what happens when those fortunes become inaccessible? That's when the real show begins! The international community has clearly decided that frozen accounts are the best way to instill a sense of international responsibility in stars. 🚨 Social Pressure: No one wants to disappoint their fans. But imagine the fans' disappointment when their idols suddenly change their views under the pressure of sanctions. An excellent way to show that popular love is not just about applause but obligations too. Who would have thought that participating in propaganda campaigns could end with a travel ban to Europe? 🚨 Propaganda and Media Influence: Sanctions against artists are perhaps the most interesting way to combat propaganda. Fewer media figures supporting government policies mean a better chance for objective coverage. Well, at least that’s what those imposing the sanctions think. So, dear colleagues, 2024 shows us that sanctions are not just about oligarchs and officials. Influential figures from the showbiz world can also feel the weight of international discontent. After all, artists are people too, and sanctions are a common cause. #sanctions #compliance

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Shared my thoughts on how Prozorro.Sale can help boost #Economic #Development in #Ukrainehttps://lnkd.in/dPbCSMaR

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Astute analysis from J. Scott Christian “Analysis paralysis” from the West over the imaginary fear of Putin’s nuclear plan is precisely the reason why Ukraine cannot achieve a decisive #victory. Our inactions and complacency have enabled Putin to continue with his #mobilisation and war-like economy, even the ability to seek #military and strategic support from fellow Axis of Resistance. Stopping Russia in Ukraine will deter Putin from his Baltic expansion plan, which will ultimately involve the potential use of #nuclear weapons. As the author used a baseball analogy in his argument, I will also offer cricket terminology. Suppose Russia and Ukraine (and its Western support) compete in a five-day test match. The West should never aim to settle for a draw; do not allow Russia to gain the upper hand in the first inning. #geopolitics

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Garry Kasparov understands the motivation for invading Ukraine better than many pundits from the West, including political leaders. Excerpt, Garry Kasparov and Kate Tsurkan, the Kyiv Independent //My first warning about Vladimir Putin and the potential dangers he posed came on Jan. 4, 2001, in a piece I wrote for The Wall Street Journal. When he began attacking free media and television, I immediately recognised the signs — his statements like "once KGB, always KGB" and actions like restoring the conservative Soviet anthem. The writing was on the wall. On April 25, 2005, during his State of the Nation address, he declared that "the collapse of the #SovietUnion was the greatest #geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century." That statement was the defining moment. It was an explicit declaration of intent to rebuild the #RussianEmpire — not necessarily within the same borders, but rather a return to the world where the underlying principle is that "might make right." This is the world Putin understands. What's tragic is that even now, after so much blood has been spilt, people in the free world are still trying to find some #compromise or middle ground to return to. What they fail to recognise is that you cannot #negotiate with this kind of evil for a simple reason: Putin views this as a war of #destruction, not a war for #territorialgains. Giving him a piece of Ukrainian territory won't change his calculations — it will only whet his appetite. His ultimate goal includes the destruction of #Ukrainian #statehood because Ukrainian statehood is one of the pillars of this world order he seeks to dismantle. It's striking when you examine the attitudes of politicians in the West — in Germany, Britain, or America. Even after (the occupation of) #Crimea, after countless wars, and after Syria, many still fail to grasp the situation. Looking at the world's conflicts today, you see Putin as a spider at the centre of the web. Yet, there remains a persistent tendency among many Western politicians to seek common ground, negotiate, and find ways to avoid the magic word — #escalation. This approach is utterly misguided because showing weakness is the surest way to escalate. Everyone knows you must hold your ground and look it in the eye when facing a predator. If you turn your back, you're done for.// #geopolitics

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11/18/2024 Biden allows Ukraine to use US arms to strike inside Russia November 18, 20241:46 AM GMT+1Updated 8 min ago WASHINGTON, Nov 17 - President Joe Biden's administration has allowed Ukraine to use U.S.-made weapons to strike deep into Russia, two U.S. officials and a source familiar with the decision said on Sunday, in a significant reversal of Washington's policy in the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Ukraine plans to conduct its first long-range attacks in the coming days, the sources said, without revealing details due to operational security concerns. The move comes two months before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20 and follows months of pleas by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to allow Ukraine's military to use U.S. weapons to hit Russian military targets far from its border. The change comes largely in response to Russia's deployment of North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces, a development that has caused alarm in Washington and Kyiv, a U.S. official and a source familiar with the decision said. Zelenskiy said in his evening address that the missiles would "speak for themselves." "Today, many in the media are saying that we have received permission to take appropriate actions," he said. "But strikes are not made with words. Such things are not announced." The White House and U.S. State Department declined to comment. There was no immediate response from the Kremlin, which has warned that it would see a move to loosen the limits on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons as a major escalation. Vladimir Dzhabarov, first deputy head of the Russian upper house's international affairs committee, said Washington's decision to let Kyiv strike deep into Russia could lead to "World War Three". "The West has decided on such a level of escalation that it could end with the Ukrainian statehood in complete ruins by morning," Andrei Klishas, a senior member of the Federation Council, Russia's upper chamber of parliament, said on the Telegram messaging app. Ukraine's first deep strikes are likely to be carried out using ATACMS rockets, which have a range of up to 190 miles (306 km), according to the sources. While some U.S. officials have expressed skepticism that allowing long-range strikes will change the war's overall trajectory, the decision could help Ukraine at a moment when Russian forces are making gains and possibly put Kyiv in a better negotiating position when and if ceasefire talks happen. It is not clear if Trump will reverse Biden's decision when he takes office. Trump has long criticized the scale of U.S. financial and military aid to Ukraine and has vowed to end the war quickly, without explaining how. Page 1 continue Joe Biden and Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Fasano, Italy, June 13, 2024.

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Deserves time, The conclusion to prevent any kind of support to Russian military industrial base is how to screen for transshipment before goods are shipped abroad, not after the fact. This means evaluating the risks inherent to certain trade routes.

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https://lnkd.in/dDiPkxyx Treasury Takes Aim at Third-Country Sanctions Evaders and Russian Producers Supporting Russia’s Military Industrial Base! The U.S. Treasury has ramped up its efforts to isolate Russia’s military supply chains by targeting third-country actors aiding Moscow in sidestepping sanctions. In its latest move, the Treasury has sanctioned a Greek entity for allegedly acting as a key intermediary, funneling resources to Russian companies tied to the military-industrial complex. This step signals Washington’s commitment to tightening the sanctions net beyond Russia’s borders, focusing on external facilitators who have helped sustain the war effort by masking their transactions or circumventing direct sanctions. By zeroing in on these enablers, the U.S. aims to disrupt the logistical and financial networks propping up Russia’s war machine.#sanctions #ofac

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11/20/2024 Exclusive: Putin, ascendant in Ukraine, eyes contours of a Trump peace deal November 20, 20247:04 AM GMT+1Updated 27 min ago MOSCOW, Nov 20 - Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Donald Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO, five sources with knowledge of Kremlin thinking told the reporter. U.S. President-elect Trump, who has vowed to swiftly end the conflict, is returning to the White House at a time of Russian ascendancy. Moscow controls a chunk of Ukraine about the size of the American state of Virginia and is advancing at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion. In the first detailed reporting of what President Putin would accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the five current and former Russian officials said the Kremlin could broadly agree to freeze the conflict along the front lines. There may be room for negotiation over the precise carve-up of the four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to three of the people who all requested anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. While Moscow claims the four regions as wholly part of Russia, defended by the country's nuclear umbrella, its forces on the ground control 70-80% of the territory with about 26,000 square km still held by Ukrainian troops, open-source data on the front line shows. Russia may also be open to withdrawing from the relatively small patches of territory it holds in the Kharkiv and Mykolaiv regions, in the north and south of Ukraine, two of the officials said. Page 1 continue Exclusive: Putin, ascendant in Ukraine, eyes contours of a Trump peace deal November 20, 20247:04 AM GMT+1Updated 27 min ago MOSCOW, Nov 20 - Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire deal with Donald Trump but rules out making any major territorial concessions and insists Kyiv abandon ambitions to join NATO, five sources with knowledge of Kremlin thinking told the reporter. U.S. President-elect Trump, who has vowed to swiftly end the conflict, is returning to the White House at a time of Russian ascendancy. Moscow controls a chunk of Ukraine about the size of the American state of Virginia and is advancing at the fastest pace since the early days of the 2022 invasion. In the first detailed reporting of what President Putin would accept in any deal brokered by Trump, the five current and matters. Page 1 continue A serviceman of 24th Mechanized brigade named after King Danylo of the Ukrainian Armed Forces fires a 2s5 "Hyacinth-s" self-propelled howitzer towards Russian troops at a front line, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region, Ukraine November 18, 2024. Oleg Petrasiuk/Press Service of the 24th King Danylo Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout

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09/23/2024 Europe Ukraine and Russia at War Ukraine's Zelenskiy heads to US with 'victory plan' at perilous moment September 23, 20247:35 AM GMT+2Updated a min ago KYIV, Sept 23 - President Volodymyr Zelenskiy travels to the United States to set out a "victory plan" to his closest ally this week, in an urgent attempt to influence White House policy on Ukraine's war with Russia no matter who wins the U.S. elections in November. The Ukrainian leader has said he wants to present the plan to President Joe Biden and his two potential successors, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, during the trip, which will see Zelenskiy addressing the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday. Zelenskiy has said that if the plan is backed by the West, it will have a broad impact on Moscow, including a psychological one that could help compel Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war diplomatically. "The Victory Plan envisages quick and concrete steps by our strategic partners - from now until the end of December," Zelenskiy told reporters on Friday. He added that the plan would act as a "bridge" to a second Ukraine-led summit on peace that Kyiv wants to hold and invite Russia to later this year. There is no alternative to peace, Zelenskiy has said, "no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage". Yet the two sides remain far apart. Zelenskiy wants Ukraine inside NATO and the European Union and Russia driven from all Ukrainian territory, though he says the latter aim can be achieved diplomatically. Putin says peace talks can only begin if Kyiv abandons swathes of eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia and drops its NATO membership plan. Zelenskiy's trip comes at a perilous juncture for Ukraine. A Trump victory in the Nov. 5 presidential election could prompt a reset of Washington's policy on Ukraine, which relies heavily on U.S. military and financial support. During a TV debate, Trump refused to say if he wanted Ukraine to defeat Russia and said he would try to end the war before taking office if he wins. Harris accused Trump of seeking Kyiv's swift and unconditional capitulation. As the election nears, Kyiv has put on a show of strength, rapidly seizing land in a high-risk Aug. 6 incursion into Russia's Kursk region, touting new weapons including a "drone missile" and ballistic weapon and launching major drone strikes. One attack caused a massive blast at an ammo dump in Russia's Tver region last Wednesday. Russia has ramped up drone and missile attacks, taken receipt of Iranian ballistic missiles, according to the West, ordered an increase in the size of its army, moved to change its nuclear doctrine and stepped up its eastern offensive. Page 1 continue Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy visits the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania, U.S., September 22, 2024. COMMONWEALTH MEDIA SERVICES/Handout 

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European Parliament >>>>> ⚪ Hungarian PM V. Orban called on EU leadership to resign. V. Orban: "We have the European Union leadership with a few big projects of its own choosing, such as green transition, sustainable development policies, migration, military and sanctions policies - and they have all failed. The current EU leadership must go and we need new leaders!" #eu #europe

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12/04/2024 Trump's plan for Ukraine comes into focus: Territorial concessions but NATO off the table December 4, 20247:46 AM GMT+1Updated an hour ago WASHINGTON, Dec 4 - Advisers to Donald Trump publicly and privately are floating proposals to end the Ukraine war that would cede large parts of the country to Russia for the foreseeable future, according to a reporter analysis of their statements and interviews with several people close to the U.S. president-elect. The proposals by three key advisers, including Trump's incoming Russia-Ukraine envoy, retired Army Lieutenant-General Keith Kellogg, share some elements, including taking NATO membership for Ukraine off the table. Trump's advisers would try forcing Moscow and Kyiv into negotiations with carrots and sticks, including halting military aid to Kyiv unless it agrees to talk but boosting assistance if Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses. Trump repeatedly pledged during his election campaign to end the nearly three-year-old conflict within 24 hours of his Jan. 20 inauguration, if not before then, but has yet to say how. Analysts and former national security officials voice grave doubts Trump can fulfill such a pledge because of the conflict's complexity. Taken together, however, his advisers' statements suggest the potential contours of a Trump peace plan. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, facing manpower shortages and growing territorial losses, has indicated that he may be open to negotiations. While still intent on NATO membership, he said this week that Ukraine must find diplomatic solutions to regaining some of its occupied territories. But Trump may find Putin unwilling to engage, analysts and former U.S. officials said, as he has the Ukrainians on the back foot and may have more to gain by pursuing further land grabs. "Putin is in no hurry," said Eugene Rumer, a former top U.S. intelligence analyst on Russia now with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank. The Russian leader, he said, shows no readiness to drop his conditions for a truce and talks, including Ukraine abandoning its NATO quest and surrendering the four provinces Putin claims as part of Russia but does not fully control, a demand rejected by Kyiv. Putin, Rumer said, likely will bide his time, take more ground and wait to see what, if any, concessions Trump may offer to lure him to the negotiating table. The report reported in May that Putin was ready to halt the war with a negotiated ceasefire that recognized current front lines but was ready to fight on if Kyiv and the West did not respond. Russia already controls all of Crimea, having unilaterally seized it from Ukraine in 2014 and has since taken about 80% of the Donbas - which is comprised of Donetsk and Luhansk - Page 3 continue Sappers of the 24th mechanized brigade named after King Danylo prepare to install anti-tank landmines, Ukraine October 30, 2024. Ukrainian Armed Forces/Handout 

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SOVIET-AMERICAN NUCLEAR MOON In the late 1950s, plans appeared in the USSR and the USA to conduct nuclear tests on the surface of the Moon. The Soviet program for the delivery and detonation of a nuclear charge was carried out in documents under the symbol E-4, the American one - A-119. Both projects, naturally, were classified as “Top Secret”. In the Soviet Union, the initiator of the E-4 project was the famous nuclear physicist Yakov Zeldovich. He had little interest in the military aspects of the planned test, but was very interested in the scientific side of the problem. At that time, nuclear tests had not yet been carried out in space. He was especially interested in the propagation of light radiation and electromagnetic waves in outer space. It was also interesting to find out how the ejection of lunar matter would occur under conditions of weak gravity. The USSR could have carried out the experiment as early as 1959. But there was such a problem: I didn’t want to warn the world community, and launching a rocket without notification was pointless - the flash could simply not be noticed. However, the problem resolved itself - Academician Zeldovich calculated the duration and brightness of the flash in airless space and doubted that it would be guaranteed to be photographed from Earth. Accordingly, the action lost its political meaning. The E-4 project was closed. The first information about a similar project that was being developed in the USA appeared back in 1959. It came from physicist Carl Sagan, who was invited to participate in the American project. Other details were shared 40 years later by A-119 project manager Leonard Reifel. According to him, the military hired Sagan to study the atomic cloud - a “mushroom” that would first grow significantly in low gravity and then slowly descend. Sagan suggested that the cloud from the explosion would help determine the presence of organic materials on the Moon. As in the Soviet Union, work in the United States was stopped due to the ineffectiveness of observing a nuclear explosion at such a distance from Earth. However, in the USA, work was stopped at an earlier stage than in the USSR. The Americans, unlike the Russians, did not have time to develop either the nuclear device itself or the rocket with which it was planned to deliver the charge to the Moon. However, having refused to carry out nuclear explosions on the Moon, the Soviet and American military, nevertheless, did not abandon the idea of ​​carrying out nuclear explosions at an altitude of just a few hundred kilometers from the surface of the Earth. Source: https://lnkd.in/eigGcdGK These projects may have initiated Krafft A. Ehricke's revolutionary idea of industrial nuclear explosions on the Moon to extract oxygen and metals. #CTBT #peace #space #makespacenotwar #spacerenaissance #newspace #deeptech #Nuclear #Moon

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⚫️ 𝐅𝐀𝐓𝐅 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞'𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐥𝐢𝐬𝐭 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 * The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is set to decide on Ukraine's request to blacklist Russia in the upcoming week. * Ukraine has been advocating for Russia's inclusion on the blacklist, citing concerns over money laundering and terrorist financing. Being placed on the FATF's blacklist or greylist can severely harm a country's financial reputation and economic standing. * Russia's membership in FATF was suspended in February 2023, following its invasion of Ukraine, but it has not yet been added to the blacklist. FATF has publicly condemned Russia's aggression, but consensus among its member countries is necessary for downgrading Russia's status. * The FATF consists of approximately 40 countries, including major economies like China, India, and Brazil, which meet three times a year to review country statuses. * Ukraine's initial request to blacklist Russia was made in April 2022, with ongoing attempts to provide evidence to support this action. If successful, Russia would join other high-risk countries like Iran, North Korea, and Myanmar on the FATF blacklist. * The evidence presented by Ukraine focuses on Russia's financial and military ties with high-risk countries and its support for private military groups, such as the Wagner Group. * Despite Ukraine's efforts, FATF has consistently declined to place Russia on either the blacklist or greylist, even with claims of its involvement in terrorism financing. * To succeed in the latest round of meetings, Ukraine will need to convince FATF's internal body, tasked with reviewing candidates and evidence, which is set to convene on 𝐎𝐜𝐭𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐫 𝟐𝟐, to recommend the proposal for formal consideration. #fatf #russia #ukraine #blacklist #greylist #aml #cft #compliance

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11/21/2024 Russia fires intercontinental ballistic missile in attack on Ukraine, Kyiv says November 21, 202411:30 AM GMT+1Updated 3 min ago KYIV, Nov 21 - Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile during an attack on Ukraine on Thursday, Kyiv's air force said, in the first known use in the war of such a powerful, nuclear-capable weapon with a range of thousands of kilometres. The air force reported the launch after Ukraine fired U.S. and British missiles at targets inside Russia this week, despite warnings by Moscow that it would see such action as a major escalation in the 33-month-old war. Russia, which invaded Ukraine in February 2022, did not immediately comment on the air force statement. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are strategic weapons designed to deliver nuclear warheads and are an important part of Russia's nuclear deterrent. The Ukrainians did not specify what kind of warhead the missile had or what type of missile it was. There was no suggestion it was nuclear-armed. The Russian missile attack targeted enterprises and critical infrastructure in the central-eastern city of Dnipro, the air force said. The air force did not say what the ICBM had targeted or whether it had caused any damage, but regional governor Serhiy Lysak said the missile attack caused damage to an industrial enterprise and set off fires in Dnipro. Two people were hurt. Russia also fired a Kinzhal hypersonic missile and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles, six of which were shot down, the Ukrainian air force said. "In particular, an intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from the Astrakhan region of the Russian Federation," it said, without specifying say what kind of ICBM was fired. Defense Express, a Ukrainian defence consultancy, asked whether the United States, Kyiv's main international ally, had been informed about the missile launch ahead of time. Page 1 continue Firefighters work at the site of a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, Ukraine November 21, 2024.

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