Christian Dreyer

Germany: Fund industry grows by 6 per cent ▪️ Equity funds with record assets ▪️ Bond funds with highest sales since 2012 ▪️ Balanced funds and property funds with outflows ▪️ Decline in new business for Spezialfonds The fund industry manages a record EUR 4,413 billion in assets for investors in Germany as at the end of September. This is an increase of over 6 per cent since the beginning of the year (EUR 4,149 billion). At EUR 2,183 billion, the majority is accounted for by open-ended Spezialfonds for institutional investors. These are primarily retirement pension schemes (EUR 768 billion) and insurers (EUR 536 billion). The fund companies manage EUR 1,524 billion in open-ended retail funds, EUR 645 billion in mandates and EUR 61 billion in closed-ended funds. In the first nine months of the year, the industry received net new money totalling EUR 21.3 billion. Open-ended retail funds accounted for EUR 20.6 billion of this, compared to EUR 14.0 billion in the same period last year. For further information, please see the press release: https://lnkd.in/eUKaYcPm Peggy Steffen Christiane Lang Frank Bock Volker Weber Magdalena Kuper Kai Schulze Yvonne Schulz Sebastian Oys Christian Anger Moritz Bartsch Rudolf Siebel Felix Ertl Daniel Mettlach Marius Seibert Jenny Seydel Marc Bubeck Sebastian Krämer- Bach Klaus Papenbrock Dr. Sinan York Temelli Cvetelina Todorova Jasmine Carolin Schimke

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Private markets for Private investors - We think a #diversified exposure to #public and #private assets has its benefits provided liquidity aspects are clarified and understood. We want first ensure the right risk/beta exposure. Astute manager selection may potentially add alpha as the #icingonthecake. #privatemarkets #beta #alpha (when investing, your capital may be at risk) Ring the 🔔 next to my profile picture for occasional snippets on financial markets. Deutsche Bank Deutsche Bank Private Bank

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The Lucerne Alternative Investments Fund (LAIF) July 2024 Factsheet is now live on our website.   Our report explores the cyclical nature of big-idea investing and the consequences for investors, where initial hype and inflated expectations often lead to disappointment when performance falters.   You can read our insights and analysis at the link below: #alternatives #Alts #investments #performance

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Private debt AUM to hit $2.64tn by 2029 22.09.2024 - Investoren Plattform Weekend News: Private Debt Private debt assets under management (AUM) are set to reach an all-time high of $2.64tn (£2tn) by 2029, with direct lending predicted to maintain its dominant position. A new report from industry data provider Preqin forecast a 9.88 per cent compound annual growth rate for overall private debt from the end of 2023 to 2029. […] und mehr als 9.200 weitere Artikel finden Sie unter: https://lnkd.in/eYzxGH5k

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🇨🇭 #Switzerland’s #Health-Care Vote Switzerland faces a tight vote on November 24th to reform health-care funding. Current #polls show a split: 1. 20 Minuten: 46% yes, 44% no. 2. SRG SSR: 54% yes, 37% no, but opposition is rising. What’s at Stake? The reform would equalize funding for #inpatient and #outpatient care. Currently, only #hospitalizations get support from #Swiss #cantons, but this change could encourage more patients to choose cost-effective outpatient treatments, potentially saving Switzerland’s health-care system up to 440 million Swiss francs annually. Other #Ballot Items: 1. Highway Extensions to ease traffic. 2. Rental Law Changes affecting tenants and landlords. 🗳 Don't forget to #vote!

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How do you invest: actively or passively? 💼📈 Here are some reasons to take a closer look.... Recent data from VZ VermögensZentrum has shown that active funds make up 68% of portfolios in a mandated solution up to 250,000 CHF (vs. 19% of passive investments). Interestingly, the volume of active funds decreases with the size of the portfolio. For example, a portfolio of 750,000 CHF only has 37% active funds. Active funds are usually more costly than passive instruments while they might not necessarily bring more performance (see Morningstar graph below). This high share of active funds in smaller portfolios puts smaller investors at a disadvantage! 📉 💡 Massive Savings Potential 💡 According to VZ calculations, there is a potential savings of around 1,600 CHF per year (over 8,000 CHF in 5 years!) for an example portfolio of 375,000 CHF. Imagine what you could do with that money! 💰✨ What can you do? 🤔💡 Get proactive and check what is inside your portfolio, especially if you have a mandated solution. 🔍📊 If appropriate, consider swapping active funds for passive ones, particularly if you are a smaller investor. 💼💱 With the variety of passive funds available, it's likely you won’t need to change your strategy, and the savings you can realize will add nicely to your performance or your life! 💵🚀 Curious to hear your thoughts: Do these findings surprise you? How are you investing? #ActiveInvesting #PassiveInvesting #SmartInvesting #InvestmentTips #FinancialFreedom #InvestWisely #Savings #Finance #WealthManagement Data: VZ Studie - Anlegerverhalten in der Schweiz 2024

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Private debt investors took defensive approach in 2024 13.12.2024 - Investoren Plattform News: Private Debt A challenging fundraising environment saw private debt investors adopt a more defensive approach in 2024, according to new Preqin research. Although private debt fundraising saw a substantial recovery after a slow first quarter in 2024, analysts found that it was not enough to make up the ground lost during the first three months of the […] und mehr als 10.100 weitere Artikel finden Sie unter: https://lnkd.in/eYzxGH5k

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"Making sense of (ESG) regulation - countering the confusion": I explored this topic with panellists Michele Giddens (Bridges Fund Management Ltd.), Frank Dornseifer (Bundesverband Alternative Investments e.V.), Paul Newsome (Unigestion), and Maarten Biermans (PROW Capital) this afternoon at the SuperReturn ESG Summit in Berlin.   A few major takeaways I wanted to share include:  - Regulators facing a steep learning curve - SFDR review is a case in point, importance of an iterative process to improve approach - Questions about the categorisations (Art 8/9 funds), and how this could be improved, for example to better accommodate transition assets  - Key differences between EU SFDR (disclosure centric) and UK SDR (more labelling centric) - From a regulator's perspective: is there a benefit in being smart follower (learning from others' "mistakes")?  - Importance of more consistency of global regulations to reduce complexity and cost (a point we at the SBAI often make in our consultation responses to authorities, see further below) - Overall importance of standardisation of data/reporting to reduce cost (of producing the data for GPs, and using/aggregating it for LPs)    Special thanks to the panellists for sharing their insights and for SuperReturn International for putting on a fantastic event! My first time here, ... it is huge, and great to meet many signatories and Investor Chapter members of the Standards Board for Alternative Investments (SBAI)! The SBAI frequently engages with regulators on behalf of its investor and manager community on ESG and many other topics: https://lnkd.in/e8dQpUc3 The SBAI's Responsible Investment (RI) Toolbox provides investors and managers with guidance on the practical implementation of RI:  https://lnkd.in/eD3pssd4 (register to access all resources!) Current area of focus in the SBAI's Responsible Investment Working Group: Carbon footprints in different strategies - https://lnkd.in/ebJeS3hS #SuperReturnInternational #SuperReturnBerlin #ESG #IndustryInsights #Regulation #Alternativeinvestments #Standards

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Today, I am very proud on my Private Equity team and all involved colleagues from #zkb #swisscanto We announced the Final Close of our Swisscanto Private Equity World Carbon Solutions I Fund at USD 150m (CHF 130m)! #decarbonization Great achievement together with Charlotte Jacobs Jessica Costantini Christian Sarwa Sebastien Marang Marco Hefti Stephanos Edler, CIIA Marc Müller Dr. René Nicolodi, CAIA Iwan Deplazes and the whole ZKB/Swisscanto crew. 💥 More exciting news to follow over the next months 👊 #assetmanagement #privateequity #venturecapital #swissgrowthfund

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The (Long)View from London: China & America –> The Inseparable Twins (still!) “economic strategy that privileges industrial production over all else, an approach that, over time, has resulted in enormous structural overcapacity. For years, Beijing’s industrial policies have led to overinvestment in production facilities in sectors from raw materials to emerging technologies such as batteries and robots….. Simply put, in many crucial economic sectors, China is producing far more output than it, or foreign markets, can sustainably absorb.’” Source: Foreign Affairs, August 6, 2024, Zongyuan Zoe Liu: “China’s Real Economic Crisis: Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model”. China & the US (& indeed most of the Western world), despite attempts to disentangle them, remain joined at the hip – both economically and geo-politically. Geo-politically, they are key rivals in the new evolving world order. America, the incumbent hegemonic power (and leader of the ‘Free World’), is being challenged by China, the rising global power (and leader of the ‘BRIC’ grouping). That rivalry spills over into economics as China seeks to overtake the US as the world’s most important economy and the US increasingly attempts to undermine China’s ability to project itself (economically). ‘Economic statecraft’ is the key policy embraced by the Biden Administration to ‘hold China down’. The cutting off of China’s access to the latest/most sophisticated semiconductors (& other key technologies), ongoing tariffs, the US’s dominance of the global financial system (given it’s primarily a dollar based system reflecting the dollar’s reserve currency status) as well as the use of sanctions, are all key tools that the US (under both Biden and previously Trump) has been using to slow/stem the rise of China. As we were reminded over dinner in NY earlier this year by a key implementer of that ‘economic statecraft’ policy (i.e. a senior member of the Biden Administration), it’s the next most powerful tool the Administration has other than actual ‘kinetic war’ (which, of course, no-one wants). As such, it’s not going to go away, but only intensify, whoever wins the White House (i.e. it’s one of the few bipartisan issues on which both sides agree). However, despite all that and the attempt at onshoring supply chains back to the US (and to, what the Administration calls, ‘friendly’ countries - i.e. ‘friend shoring’), the US & Chinese economies remain inextricably linked. That linkage was on show once again this week. In particular, it was a key, although largely ignored, feature of the US’s inflation data. To read the full piece/take a trial, click HERE: https://lnkd.in/dVuMqrCE

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The attached note reviews the key developments of 2024 and what it meant for investment returns and has a look at the outlook for 2025. The key points are as follows: The main themes for 2024 were: better than feared growth; global divergence; more disinflation; falling interest rates but with Australia lagging; and more geopolitical threats but not as bad as feared. As in 2023, returns were strong. 2025 is likely to see positive returns, but after the surprising calm of 2024, it’s likely to be far more volatile (expect a 15% or so correction along the way) and more constrained. Expect the RBA cash rate to fall to 3.6%, the ASX 200 to rise to 8800 and balanced super funds to return around 6%. Australian home prices will likely see further softness ahead of rate cuts providing a boost in the second half of 2025. Key things to keep an eye on are: interest rates; recession risk; a potential trade war; and the Australian consumer.

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Germany mulls tighter disclosure rules for investors building up stakes in companies https://lnkd.in/e62TAz8Y - - - - Reverse engineering the features of companies activists target is an exercise in “retroactive” data mining. These factors and features certainly point one in the right direction overall. But it is not these factors and characteristics themselves that attract activists or hedge funds. It is the other way around: activists and hedge funds are attracted to a company, and it happens that it possesses certain characteristics. Without going into the definition of what is value, activists are still investors, and mostly value investors. So, it is not surprising that shares of the companies they target do not perform well. Return on equity factor is even more problematic: who would pick companies based on a low return on equity factor? If one has to use this factor at all, then one should pick companies with high, not low return on equity. To make a long story short, even if you decide to use these factors in your decision-making process, actual implementation is very problematic. The question then is what really attracts activist investors? How is it possible that despite all of market efficiency, a small pack of activist investors and hedge fund managers continue to come up with great investment ideas? Why these opportunities do not disappear? I think that great investment managers are also good storytellers. Many believe that making good investments requires excellent skills in the analysis of financial accounting statements, building complex and detailed valuation models, forecasting future profitability of companies and otherwise analyzing numbers “to death”. In my book “Story Investing” I argue that best investments are just like good stories or movies: with three-part story structure, important turning points, intrigue, drama, and surprises. One of the highlights of the approach is the proposal to develop both a historical we well as future narrative for the company and its share price. It is not only a question of providing verbal and common-sense explanation of the numbers. I think activists are especially good at identifying this three-part story structure of complication, development and resolution. It allows them to develop a sound investment thesis for the company. And of course, they aim to jump aboard the train at the beginning of the resolution part. - - - - Story Investing https://lnkd.in/gxJgArX - - - - Event-Driven Value Investing https://lnkd.in/dqqjjz7K

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💡 Largest RWA tokenization ever issued - $4.3B bond by German bank KfW 💡 What do you need to know? 1️⃣ On Thursday June 27 - KfW issued the largest tokenized bond in history - at €4 billion with a maturity of 3 years and a coupon of 2.75% (*cough* Ethena's "internet bond" at 33.5%) #rwatokenization 2️⃣ KfW is a German state owned innovation only bank and headquartered in Frankfurt am Main with branches in Berlin and Bonn https://lnkd.in/gyceHVwa #frankfurtammain 3️⃣ Thursday of last week was a very unfortunate day to announce because of Friday's activities. I'm still catching up. 4️⃣ KwF's tokenized bond is the first high-volume benchmark bond issued as a central register security (kryptowertpapier) pursuant to the German electronic securities act (eWpG). The bond has a value date of 2 July 2024. It is not on BaFin's Kryptowertpapierliste nach eWpG spreadsheet updated this morning yet, presumably because of the value date - https://lnkd.in/g8M__NqD 🔥 Nerd alert - More on "kryptowertpapier" another day (not crypto btw, got to be a bit confused to think that one) 🔥 5️⃣ “We are delighted to have successfully completed a second digital transaction, with a focus on further automating data generation and speeding up the issuance process, thus improving scalability,” said Tim Armbruster, Treasurer at KfW. “We thank Deutsche Börse for the constructive cooperation over the past months. It is important to us to provide key insights from the issuer’s perspective to contribute to the further digitisation of capital markets.” The issuance was facilitated by Clearstream via Deutsche Börse’s digital securities platform D7. Clearstream is the post-trade business of Deutsche Börse Group. There have been other large token bond issuances this year - i.e. the $800M Hong Kong green bond in February. The global bond market is approx $130T 😣 Depressing disclosure of the year "NOT FOR PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AUSTRALIA, CANADA, SOUTH AFRICA, OR JAPAN" 😣 See for more https://lnkd.in/gx6Dn7Pi h/t to Security Token Market 🌴/ Security Token Group - Security Token Prime Insights https://lnkd.in/gPCrPcmy - pretty much the only thing I read on a Monday morning.

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A worrisome doom loop 04.01.2025 - Investoren Plattform News: Private Debt Rising private-credit engagement inversely correlated to supervisory concerns. Rising supervisory concerns about the growth of the under-regulated private credit market, including the exposures of banks to this fast-growing segment, appear to be inversely correlated to the actions taken by banks and asset managers to accelerate their engagements in a testy market environment. und mehr als 10.300 weitere Artikel finden Sie unter: https://lnkd.in/eYzxGH5k

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In a world where the definition of 'sustainable investment' is still being debated in Switzerland and beyond, the Swiss Sustainable Investment Market Study 2024 by Swiss Sustainable Finance offers valuable transparency on the current state of sustainability-related investments. The report highlights three key measurement approaches for sustainable investments in Switzerland: the Combination of Sustainable Investment Approaches, Swiss Self-Regulation, and the Eurosif - The European Sustainable Investment Forum Methodology. For a deeper dive into these approaches, read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/eQw7Zvpm

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On the topic of ‘US exceptionalism’ and European investors’ portfolio home biases: I wanted to flag the great work of my colleagues Dr. Stephanie Lang, Marina Evtimova, CAIA and Chiara Valzano. One of the key findings from their latest analysis of over 250 of the largest multi-asset, moderate-risk portfolios in Europe is that: compared to a broad global equity exposure, the average portfolio is generally under-exposed to the digital disruption and AI ‘mega-force’ - as a result of under-allocation to the US, where some of the biggest tech and AI-related firms are listed. AI is one of the five long-term structural trends (‘mega forces') that we think are poised to drive future returns - together with demographic divergence, a fragmenting world, the future of finance, and the low-carbon transition. Targeting companies in sectors and regions that stand to benefit from these ‘mega forces’ can shape portfolio outcomes – so is it time to re-think portfolio construction practices anchored to a regional approach, as well as long-established home biases?

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Switzerland is going one step closer to zero rates again. Is it the return of “lower for longer” after a short parenthesis of normalized rates? Implications for CHF-based investors will have to be carefully considered.

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