Nick Motteram

Edition 557 of our market update released. Very interesting deals as good examples of the movement to automation and technology in industrial services detailed as well as update on Australian market valuations and news. Thankyou Julia Devitt for great work as editor of this publication across 2024. #engineering #automation #investmentbanking #research #industrialservices #predictivemaintenance #scaffolding #miningservices #ironore #coal #infrastructure #cobalt #lithium #gold #drillingservices #australia #strategy #ip #trademarks #patents #innovation #research #mergers #acquisitions

11

This post delves into the geographical distribution of PHEV purchases through novated leases. By analyzing our database of PHEV customers and mapping their postcodes, we discovered an interesting trend. Our findings reveal that PHEVs are not confined to just urban areas; they have made their way into suburban neighborhoods, towns, and even rural regions nationwide. This data underscores the growing popularity and widespread adoption of PHEVs beyond city limits, showcasing their appeal to a diverse range of consumers. #PHEV #EVCARS #EV #employeebenefits #employeeretention #employeerewards #employeeincentives https://lnkd.in/gd-bcHf6

4

The Shaw and Partners June Quarter 2024 Research Monitor has thudded onto the street and again this quarter it is a page turner!! 📈 Q1 2024 Performance. The best performing Australian equity sector was Software and Services, up 24.5% including dividends. 🏘 China's Property Pile Up. China is building 2.9 times as many houses today than there are in Australia right now 🚢 Cautious Outlook for Iron Ore. Iron ore is Australia's largest resource export at A$124b value in 2023, ahead of LNG at A$92b. 💻 Talkin' about an AI Revolution. Microsoft (MSFT) is benefitting from its early lead in AI to upsell its security suite.   🔌 Copper: the Missing Ingredient of the Energy Transition. S&P Global recently estimated demand for refined copper will double by 2035. 🏭 Offshore Wind. There are over 2,000 GW of coal-fired power stations that need to be replaced. 🥇 Gold Price and Gold Share Price Divergence. Since 2010 the gold price has increased +250%, recently maintaining levels above A$3,000/oz. ✈ Come fly with me, let's fly, let's fly away. Aussie Travel Bounces Back.  🛌 Sleep Well at Night with Travel Sector Tailwinds. WebBeds is growing faster than their peer group. Stock recommendations: S&P/ASX100 Large Caps: Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL), Domino's (ASX: DMP), Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), James Hardie Industries (ASX: JHX), Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS), Qantas (ASX: QAN), ResMed (ASX: RMD), Suncorp Group (ASX: SUN), Treasury Wine Estates (ASX: TWE), Xero (ASX: XRO). S&P Global/ASX Emerging Companies: Abacus Storage King Group (ASX: ASK), Bannerman Energy Ltd (ASX:BMN), Black Cat Syndicate Limited (ASX: BC8), Global Lithium Resources (ASX: GL1), Helloworld Travel Limited (ASX: HLO), Metro Mining Ltd (ASX:MMI), Retail Food Group (ASX: RFG), Tyro Payments (ASX: TYR), Vista Group (ASX: VGL), Webjet Limited (ASX: WEB). If you would like a copy please let me know! https://lnkd.in/giDmriV5 #investment #research #asx #wealthmanagement

3

1 Comment

https://lnkd.in/gwufFa3E - This is one of the best investor newsletters we've ever seen from Amanda Buckingham at Warriedar Resources Ltd (ASX:WA8) so we've showcased it in more detail below. #investorrelations #marketengagement #shareholderengagement #investormarketing

15

2 Comments

Rising Capex is an interesting signal for the Australian Market. Could be some growth potential coming through for 2025 Source: NAB Tapas Strickland https://lnkd.in/ggEkfDYW

2

1 Comment

I'm definitely a bit rusty (especially at 630 AM), but hope I managed to get across our regional team's key points on the data centre power crunch: (1) Power supply is the biggest hurdle to the data centre boom, which forms the foundation of the AI boom; (2) Big customers are NOT backing down from demanding clean (renewables) electrons; (3) These forces are driving massive technology (e.g. liquid cooling) and regulatory (e.g. Malaysia's new solar rules) shifts, which will drive... (4) Companies (see the video) and markets (Johor, but who's next?) in surprising directions. https://lnkd.in/g8z5JgEf

130

20 Comments

US Election 2024: What Comes Next for Australia and the World This morning’s AmCham event at Melbourne’s Langham Hotel brought the future into focus. Dr. Michael Green, CEO of the United States Studies Centre, and April Palmerlee, CEO of AmCham Australia, shared their insights on Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the implications for Australia and the global order. Their conversation highlighted both opportunities and challenges for Australian businesses and policymakers. Here’s what’s next and why it matters: 1. Trump’s Presidency: A Balancing Act for Australia Trump’s comeback is historic, but his mandate isn’t unlimited. Bold moves—tax cuts, deregulation, and a hardline stance on China—are likely, but internal Republican tensions may limit what he can achieve. For Australia, this is a chance to align with US priorities in critical minerals, digital trade, and defense innovation, but it requires a clear-eyed approach to Trump’s unpredictable style. 2. AUKUS: A Test of Delivery The AUKUS pact remains central to US-Australia relations, with bipartisan US support. However, the true test lies in execution. For Australian businesses, this is an opportunity to showcase capabilities in defense manufacturing and supply chains to ensure AUKUS delivers real outcomes. 3. Trade and Tariffs: Risks and Opportunities Trump’s tariff plans will target China, creating global ripple effects. While Australia’s trade surplus with the US offers some protection, businesses must adapt to supply chain shifts. Proactively shaping trade policy, especially in areas like digital trade and intellectual property, could position Australia as a trusted partner. 4. Navigating Geopolitical Complexity China’s growing alignment with Russia, North Korea, and Iran is reshaping the global order. Meanwhile, Beijing’s charm offensive toward US allies could test Western unity. Australia must deepen ties with Washington while maintaining a steady, pragmatic approach to Beijing to secure its role in the Indo-Pacific. 5. Economic Competitiveness: A Wake-Up Call If Trump cuts corporate taxes and deregulates industries, the US will attract global investment. Australia risks falling behind with a 30% corporate tax rate unless bold reforms keep it competitive in tax policy, investment, and innovation. 6. Business Leadership: Seize the Moment Both Dr. Green and April Palmerlee emphasised the critical role of Australian businesses. Trump’s disruptive style creates opportunities for those who are prepared. From critical minerals to digital trade, now is the time for businesses to align their strengths with US priorities and drive collaboration. A Call to Action This isn’t just about adapting to change—it’s about shaping it. Australia’s strong ties with the US position it well, but success depends on proactive leadership. The challenge is clear - step up, stay engaged, and lead. Overall was a really insightful conversation.

15

Treasurer Chalmers, seemingly fuelled by far too much premium priced caffeine has recently made a series of ironic accusations, blaming the #RBA for problems that are in reality a direct result of years of overly-interventionist government policy (aka spending) and inflationary wealth redistribution. Conversely, Governor Bullock has been doing an admirable job managing the #monetary plumbing of #Australia, skilfully pulling the right levers (limited as they are) to achieve the Reserve Bank's objectives. Yesterday, the Governor gave a masterclass on this. Hopefully, the Treasurer was listening as the Governor rolled out and explained one chart that sums up why her board is doing what it is doing. Tap the #coffee cup to learn more. #markets #investing #economy #technology #business #finance #ceos #cfos #familyoffices #familybusiness #gold #silver #bitcoin #crypto #copper #oil #uranium #collectibles #wine #fineart #nfts #sustainability #future

4

Interesting listen

2

No Time To Yield. Elizabeth Moran interviews Hui Sien Koay, Head of iShares Fixed Income Product Strategy, APAC and James Waterworth, Director, Wealth Distribution Australia on how investors are currently thinking about fixed income within a strategic asset allocation or total portfolio level. #fixedincome #portfolio #investingnews #investing #wealth #assetallocation https://lnkd.in/g83yKHV3

3

What impact does the Instant Asset Write-off scheme have on small businesses? From my perspective this Federal Government initiative been one of the most significant policies over the last few years to stimulate economic growth. While the thresholds have changed a few times (at one point up to $150k), organisations have brought forward their spending to take advantage of these initiatives. At a time when there are economic headwinds and we need to be spending significantly more to decarbonise we need more pro-business policies like the IAWO! Interested to hear others' thoughts? #paymentplans #decarbonisation #IAWO

10

1 Comment

Here is my latest article in the AFR. I argue that the ructions in markets over the last week largely reflected the fact that markets were priced for an uber-benign scenario and had grown increasingly complacent about risk (whether macro, thematic, structural or geopolitical). In this sense while a US recession is a non-trivial risk, it is still unlikely in the near-term. The triggering of the Sahm Rule in the current environment is unique even according to its author (yes – ahem - “this time it is different”). In that context this feels more 1987 than 2008 or 1990-91, so maybe investors “keep calm and carry on”. In so doing, however, it is best not to forget the golden rule of investing: diversification. In a multi-asset portfolio this means properly calibrating risk appetite and while equity and bonds are the foundations of such a portfolio it is best to augment such exposures with investments uncorrelated with equity and bond beta. Such a portfolio mitigates any panic response and attendant sub-optimal decision-making in times of elevated volatility.  #GSFM #Recession #Volatility

29

What does liquidity mean for your SMSF? As your SMSF members approach retirement age, ensuring liquidity is key. You can’t rely solely on property investments—there needs to be enough liquid assets to meet pension requirements 💼. We dive into why balancing your portfolio is crucial and how to avoid liquidity issues when managing land in super 🏡. Get the insights you need to keep your fund compliant and your retirement plan on track 📊. Watch the full episode here: https://lnkd.in/gaMdgS4w #SMSF #RetirementPlanning #PensionRequirements #FinancialFreedom #Superannuation #LiquidityManagement #WealthBuilding #PropertyInvestment #SelfManagedSuperFund #InvestmentStrategy #PensionDrawdown #SuperFundCompliance #RetirementWealth #FinancialAdvice #PortfolioBalance

2

Why is a European bank like Societe Generale Corporate and Investment Banking - SGCIB investing in NZ Solar Energy? Check out the video below to hear Jason Patrick and Arkady Lippa discuss why.

3

I've said it once and I'll say it again......big super is guilty of mis-investment in technology. Super funds invest on trend rather than realising that administration as an investment class can deliver investment returns AND better member outcomes, but they will still chase trends like blockchain and AI over traditional tech with innovation that is available in the market right now. https://lnkd.in/gK2g5bUq

2

1 Comment

***The Shortlist*** Equity markets rallied to record highs on hopes of a soft landing after the US Federal Open Market Committee cut rates by 50bp. We forecast an additional 150bp of cuts this cycle. Listen to my commentary in today’s ‘5 in 5 with ANZ’ podcast 🎧 https://lnkd.in/g3b9d_JA Also in a surprise move, Bank Indonesia cut its policy rate by 25bp, as it anticipates an aggressive US easing cycle. Taiwan’s monetary policy is set to diverge from regional peers, as the central bank looks like it will keep its policy rate at 2% through 2025. We continue to expect the RBA will start its easing cycle in February 2025, but risks have tilted toward a later start, given current labour market momentum. We have launched a thematic Global Carbon Market Chartbook. We report global carbon offset supply fell in August. We expect prices across some carbon markets to inch closer together in 2024, as new programs break records and mature schemes cool. Registered ANZ clients can view the Shortlist and our research reports at www.research.anz.com Podcast: Listen to 5 in 5 with ANZ at https://lnkd.in/g_K3pYVh Stay connected via ANZ Institutional or Follow us on X (Twitter) https://x.com/ANZ_Research

13

Current and aspiring company Directors. This article is a lesson in what not to do. After the disastrous share price performance - which has impacted the savings well over 1 million KiwiSavers - the Board of Fletchers is dragging the chain on an important, urgent and obvious decision- replacing the Chair. Instead, confusing messages about also trying to hire a CEO have been made. This violates a basic rule of corporate governance ie. that a new Chair leads the hiring of a CEO. They shouldn't inherent a new CEO chosen by the rump of a (hopefully) departing and (certainly) discredited Board. I am left wondering if the real game the Board were playing here was to hire a new CEO of their choosing - hoping that it would calm things down - so one of the remaining Directors could be the Chair. Thankfully, shareholders have emphatically stated that they have no confidence in any of the current Directors to be the Chair of Fletchers. Doesn't that say it all? The remaining Directors of Fletchers need to get on with the decision they are being paid to make - appointing a new Chair.

82

6 Comments

The strategic partnership between ResetData and Centuria Capital Group, marks a significant milestone for both companies and the future of sustainable technology.  This investment underscores Centuria's early mover advantage in the rapidly growing Liquid Immersion Cooled (LIC) data centre technology.  For ResetData, this partnership with a leading Australasian real estate funds manager provides the financial backing and strategic support needed to expand our innovative data centre solutions across Australia and New Zealand. The first major project under this partnership will be the transformation of 818 Bourke Street, Melbourne, into one of Australia's first AI inferencing and ultra-high-density LIC data centre. This development is likely to have a significant impact on the future of sustainable technology, as the success of LIC technology could set new standards in the industry, driving broader adoption of eco-friendly data centre solutions. Read more about the acquisition via https://lnkd.in/g4Yf_Q_8  #ResetData #CenturiaCapital #StrategicPartnership #SustainableTech #LICTechnology #DataCentres #TechInvestment #AI #AustralasianInnovation #JoinTheReset #Sustainability #IndustryLeadership

31