Geoff Tarrant

Not only is it inconceivable for gas supply availability to be turned up to these extents to rescue the electricity supply system in VRE droughts, but advocates of expanded new investment in gas-fired power generation as interim contributors in the energy transition should also look at the only-modest GHG emission savings with open-cycle gas peakers compared to the black coal-fired generation it is supposed to be replacing. In my view, up to 10GW of nuclear power generation has to be part of the solution, and this on top of many tens of GWs of largescale battery-backed rooftop solar BtM on commercial premises, and changing the shape of the net demand on the grid, replacing much of the grid-based REZs, pumped storage and transmission expansions facing impossible environment and land competition issues.

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What saddens me is that the biggest miming companies operating in Australia such as BHP, BMA (BHP and Mitsubishi Alliance), Glencore, Anglo American etc continued to operate coal mines. with complete defiance to NetZero target by 2035 (Australian Government's Target). As reported in today's Sydney Morning Herald, Australia’s biggest coal exporter, Glencore, has dumped a plan to spin off its coal mines amid a significant shift in shareholder attitudes over whether global resources heavyweights should sell or retain their assets producing the most-polluting fossil fuel. Swiss-based Glencore, which operates 15 coal mines in NSW and Queensland, has been in talks with its investors to canvass views on the future of the company’s polluting, yet highly profitable coal division. Coal mining is one of the most lucrative divisions for Glencore’s diversified and far-flung global resource business, having recently driven record dividends. However, the company has faced intensifying scrutiny from shareholders who are increasingly concerned about their financial and ethical exposure to risks caused by contributing to climate change. #Climatechange #Netzero #Greenwashing #coalmining #Sustainability #Greeninfrastructure #Circulareconomy #Climateemergency

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Big Copper Deal here ... A sign that there is some big money being bet on price increases. Something we've been saying for a while, but now we're starting to see it come about in the mainstream. Remember copper is used for ANY new electrification and the need to double or triple our electrical grid's size is a necessity if the world will continue to develop EVs, AI, and a less carbon intensive grid. ----- The world's largest global diversified miner, BHP Group, is making a monster bet on surging future copper demand with the proposed takeover of Anglo American Plc. The bet is based on the thesis that the world's power grids need a major overhaul and that the electrification of the economy will unleash new demand for base metals. This also comes as market observers have warned about an impending shortfall of global copper mining supply. According to Bloomberg, BHP proposed an all-share deal valued at £31.1 billion ($38.9 billion). The transaction depends on Anglo spinning off its South African iron ore and platinum businesses to its shareholders. The offer is conditional and non-binding at £25.08 a share, or about a 14% premium to Anglo's closing share price on Wednesday. https://lnkd.in/eyQsJfbd

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My latest for the The Australian Financial Review looks back over a dozen years of anomalous #AUD #FX pricing. This enduring issue has at its root the lack of alignment between the RBA's monetary stance and the Australian commodity price cycle. I argue that the nominal AUD was too strong in the period between the end of the super-cycle boom and the beginning of the pandemic, and too weak in the pandemic recovery period. That has put more pressure on prices/wages to bear the brunt of competitiveness adjustments in the system, thus making it more difficult to counter the inflation challenges of the day. The real-world evidence for this is the reality of missed CPI targets in both periods (in the direction one would assume given the hypothesis), allied to weak wage outcomes in the first period and a wage breakout in the second. The technical evidence is that econometric models of the AUD show long periods of considerable overvaluation in the 2010s, and considerable undervaluation since 2021. And a simple logical test is sufficient to make the case in the recent wave. Was there a commodity price boom? Yes. Did the AUD appreciate? No.  This research theme is part of the backlog I accumulated in my time at BHP that I am gradually grinding through. In fact, I open the article with the personal observation that over the course of my 8 year career at the world's top mining company the price of iron ore increased by two-thirds and the AUD exchange rate went … down? John Kehoe Vandita Pant Shu Ling Heng Michael Anthonisz Ben Samild Lun Zhang Amber Rabinov Tony Morriss Shiro Armstrong Paul Burke Kirsten Aiken Stewart Cox Elliot Clarke, CFA, CAIA Jens Nordvig

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Selling #uranium to the world is the single highest leverage activity Western Australia can do to help climate change and drive decarbonisation? How? Simple. Uranium is amazingly energy dense. One kilogram of natural uranium will yield about 20,000 times as much energy as the same amount of coal. (source: World Nuclear Association) Every energy dense pound of U we send overseas that is used in civilian nuclear will offset extraordinary amounts of carbon! Given the density of energy, and the baseload nature of nuclear, it produces huge numbers of TWh! Cauldron Energy Limited AMEC (Association of Mining and Exploration Companies)The Chamber of Minerals and Energy of Western Australia Chamber of Commerce and Industry WA Minerals Council of Australia WA Labor Liberal Party of Western Australia Roger Cook Libby Mettam Basil Zempilas #auspol #mining

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Thankful to have been part of Infrastructure New Zealand's latest report on Developing and Refining the PPP Model and Other Infrastructure Financing Tools. You can view this report here: https://lnkd.in/gxfafZzN

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Here's the thing with the Nuclear Energy industry's claims renewables are expensive: this is the first serious capital spend on generation capacity in Australia in 20 years. Coal fired power was mostly just maintenance costs. Of course it's expensive to build new generation capabilities and tie it into the grid. Just wait till we start paying for nuclear power build-outs. All this whingeing about renewables will suddenly be put into perspective.

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Warren Pearce wrote in Fridays AFR that offering a 10% Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive worth (est.) $7Bn over 10years to attract investment capital to sovereign value-adding is a great idea. The AMEC worked on this with Madeleine King for 12 months. Mr Pearce wrote “Australia is a high cost jurisdiction and that is not likely to change. We have high standards, high-paying jobs and a high standard of living. I don’t think any of us want to see that change. And that’s the major reason we need to do this.” Parts of this are true. Australia is a high cost jurisdiction. That is why minerals are processed offshore because it’s lower cost to do so. Our standard of living is high but declining. A production subsidy paid for by taxpayers is not the way to maintain our standard of living. The failure of car manufacturing in Australia and many other subsidised and tariff-supported industries that Hawke-Keating undid in the 1980’s proved how nonsensical production subsidies were. This proposed subsidy is only 10%. What happens when these facilities costing hundreds of millions to setup find they cannot compete in a global market distorted by production subsidies and tariffs? Is the subsidy increased? If the USA and EU are subsidising their production of critical minerals what game are we playing to follow them? Albanese has already said Australia cannot compete on subsidies. If Australia has a large share of world critical mineral deposits then surely we can survive competition (and attract demand, as we do with coal and iron ore etc) without a taxpayer subsidy. Big mining companies raise funds of this size to develop resources all the time. And they will not do it unless a solid business case exists. If Australia is basically a price-taker in critical minerals then value-adding is worthwhile only if we have a higher quality deposit and/or a lower cost production base. Australia is a high cost jurisdiction. If we want to export into global markets we have to compete. Do miners have the ingenuity to do this without Government production incentives or handouts (they are big enough not to need them).

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$ZNC - Zenith Minerals is pleased to report that exploration is to re-commence at the Company’s 100% owned #lithium projects in Western Australia following a strategic review of its lithium business. Under the former 2022 farm-in agreement, approximately A$9.3M was spent by EVM on Zenith’s two Western Australian lithium projects - Split Rocks and Waratah Well. Most of the work under the farmin was completed in 2022 with no drilling undertaken during 2023. Zenith shareholders are the beneficiaries of the significant amount of funds spent that saw 23,000m of drilling and over 15,000 2 geochemical samples completed across the two Zenith projects, culminating in the discovery of the Rio lithium deposit and definition of a 11.9Mt @ 0.72% Li2O Maiden Mineral Resource (ASX Release 28 Sept 23) at Split Rocks and high-grade lithium mineralisation defined at the Waratah Well project. Managing Director Michael Clifford commented: “I’m pleased to announce the conclusion of the strategic review of Zenith’s lithium business and advise that the Company will now proceed with initially drill testing six high-priority targets on the 100% owned Split Rocks project in Western Australia. These drill targets include 1km step out drilling northwest of the Rio Lithium Mineral Resource and 5 other key targets beyond the Rio deposit, including the undrilled 9km long Cielo geochemical anomaly. These drill targets are explained in some detail in the accompanying Company presentation titled “2024 Lithium Forward Program” released to ASX today.” Although there was interest in Zenth’s lithium assets from various strategics, the feedback from several parties was that they were looking for more advanced projects, but they strongly indicated that as the projects are advanced, they would consider re-engaging. The opportunity now is for the Company to progress our high-quality lithium projects with additional work, and then reassess our position in 6 to 12 months’ time.” Read more: https://lnkd.in/g3T8NZ9p $ZNC Michael Clifford Christopher Shanley Andrew Grove

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MfE has released its consultation this morning about future NZ ETS auction settings. I think that its contents will be difficult to translate into a clear bull/bear outcome for market participants as you can read a different message into the suggestions that it makes about volume and price settings. On the volume side the consultation document doesn’t include any options for increasing auction supply above status quo levels. The document only asks if the Commission’s recommendations for reducing volume supply should be implemented from 2025, or if these should be implemented from 2027 onwards. This is actually quite a technical, and maybe legal, question about whether the circumstances for this to be possible within the legislation are justified. So relative to what we knew before this document was released, this news appears supportive of higher market prices. However, on the price control settings front the consultation document asks if the “price corridor” should be reduced. The price corridor is the combination of the auction reserve price and the Cost Containment Reserve trigger price settings. The Commission advised the Government that the existing price control settings were broadly appropriate, so this option to reduce the auction price settings has been introduced either following advice from government officials or from Ministers. Officials deliver drafts of all consultation documents to their Ministers, but it is Cabinet’s decision about what goes into the final document. Relative to what we knew before this consultation document was available, the price corridor suggestions appear bearish for NZU prices. Determining which of these proposals will be more important for NZ ETS market participants is more uncertain. The NZU price has a long and storied history of diligently following the most dominant price control settings that the market can find, which has only been broken over recent years. From this perspective, the auction price settings might be judged more important. However, the future NZU price probably has much more to do with the volume drivers in the market than the auction price settings and this might mean that the volume outcomes are more material. The consultation paper indicates that the Government thinks that the suggestions in the consultation paper are supportive of higher price outcomes. The volume drivers that are the most influential for the market will change over time. The importance of auction volume and price settings is set to decline, and the impact of forestry supply will increase. You can read more about this in this article: https://lnkd.in/gpxGtazV. So while this consultation is important for NZU prices in the short- and medium-term the long-term uncertainty is still all about trees. #nzets #climatepolicy #emissionspricing #nzpol #EY

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Shaw and Partners has released the September Quarter 2024 edition of the Research Monitor. INSIDE THIS ISSUE: ✅ Q2 2024 Performance. The best performing Australian equity sector was Utilities, up 13.3% including dividends. ✅ Bauxite: It takes around 5t of bauxite to produce 2t of alumina to produce 1t of aluminium. ✅ Utilities IT: 25% of utility billing contracts will be awarded to new entrants that will disrupt incumbent vendor offerings. ✅ Haven’t heard of Vanadium? Vanadium Flow Batteries can provide cheap, large-scale grid energy storage. ✅ Australia's per capita recession: Australia has been in a per capita recession, with GDP per capita declining in six out of the last seven quarters. ✅ An introduction to drone warfare: A key element in modern military strategy. ✅ Gold: Record high gold prices have resulted in significant cash generation for disciplined producers. ✅ There is no cloud: Data Centre market size estimated to reach US$418 billion by 2030. ✅ Telematics in the trucking industry: EROAD is an early innovator of Electronic Road User Charges. ✅ Shaw and Partners Model Portfolio Stock Recommendations: Brambles (BXB), CSL (CSL), Domino's (DMP), IDP Education Ltd (IEL), Metcash (MTS), Mineral Resources Limited (MIN), REA Group (REA), South32 (S32), Stockland (SGP), Xero (XRO), Australian Vanadium Limited (AVL), Bannerman Energy Ltd (BMN), Credit Clear Limited (ASX:CCR), Duratec (DUR), EROAD (ERD), Gentrack Ltd (Global) (GTK), Metro Mining Ltd (ASX:MMI), Pioneer Credit Limited (PNC), Southern Cross Electrical Engineering (SXE), Southern Cross Gold (SXG). To receive a copy of the September Quarter 2024 edition, speak to your Shaw and Partners Adviser or contact us via https://lnkd.in/fGR-VHa #shawandpartners #economics #investing #money #wealthmanagement #financialservices #realestate #technology #cyber #interestrates #software #supplychain #energytransition #agriculture #australia

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Why would the Albanese government decide to go after the CFMEU? Maybe its a cover for this..... "The vast majority of Australia’s 2.5 million family enterprises – which account for some five million workers or around 40 per cent of the private sector work force – have no idea they are about to be savaged by the Albanese government" There are 700 pages of IR legislation being made law in August. Here are some examples... Unions have the power to appoint a delegate to any business employing at least one person. The Fair Work Commission indicates one union delegate per fifty employees is appropriate. The tasks and powers of the union delegate(s) are wide-ranging. They must be consulted on all major workplace changes including rosters and any process or procedure in which employees are entitled to be represented, including resolution of grievances or disputes, performance management and disciplinary processes. The definition of whom union delegates can contact in an enterprise effectively means everyone. Enterprises employing 15 or more people must be given time to attend the Trades Hall for “training”. Those with under 15 employees can do their training online. Transport enterprises are excluded because they have their own set of rules designed to push up costs by around 10% by eliminating efficient and safe independent family owned truckies. It will be dangerous to retrench or sack a union delegate, and employers must give them access to space to do their work and to use the workplace communication system. The union delegates’ rights to share information among delegates in rival enterprises will be the subject of much controversy. Union delegates will be instructed by Trades Hall to insist that employers obey the new laws on casual employment. The new law defines casual employment in such a complex way that most businesses currently employing casuals will be acting illegally if they continue with the current arrangement after August 26, 2024. So the CFMEU has to take a temporary bullet so it looks like Labour is tough on unions...Bulltish!

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Fenix Resources Limited | John Welborn | Stockhead TV 📺 Market Talk | Investor Relations and Media Collaborations is an investor event series that brought together seven ASX-listed resource developers and producers for an afternoon of presentations on 6 May at Sydney’s Hubert Theatre Royale. 🗞️ Read the editorial feature here: https://lnkd.in/g9Gzw4Nm -- Hosted by Perth-based ResolveIR and Sydney-based Investability IR and in partnership with Australia's leading news website, covering emerging stories Stockhead , the one-day investor event showcased carefully selected, high growth companies at various levels of development in the resources sector. This week’s #MarketTalk event showcased seven companies that prove there’s still immense value to be unlocked on the ASX. -- Watch the interview with Fenix Resources Limited Executive Chairman, John Welborn and Stockhead TV 📺👇🏽: https://loom.ly/RfrnPJw Fenix Resources Limited is a profitable iron ore producer that operates the Iron Ridge mine that produces 1.3Mtpa of iron ore that is developing more two more pillars to its business. During the first half of FY2024, the company’s operations delivered record revenue of $126.9m, up 49% from the previous corresponding period, EBITDA of $42.8m – up 110% pcp, and net profit after tax of $22.1m, up 102% pcp. However, the company is also expanding into new operations with its own haulage fleet and port infrastructure base in Geraldton. FEX is providing port and haulage services for Midwest iron ore producers CuFe (ASX:CUF) and private company Gold Valley. We have signed up other Midwest iron ore producers CuFe – an ASX listed company – and Gold Valley – a private company, and we are doing port services and haulage services for those two customers. Separately, the company has negotiated a 10Mt right to mine on SinoSteel’s W11 Beebyn deposit that is 20km away from Iron Ridge and expects to publish a feasibility study that will pave the way for bringing W11 Beebyn into production to augment its existing production. It is also working to make a similar decision on the Shine iron ore mine it acquired from Mt Gibson (ASX:MGX). “I think investors should be looking for us to define and then execute our pathway from being a single mine producer to being a multi-mine producer in the Mid-West with the corresponding boost to our revenues and profitability,” Welborn told Stockhead. -- Nara Kassam Dannika Warburton Evy Litopoulos #asx #stockstowatch #investing #resources #FEX #watchlist

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It is disappointing to see the Australian government backing gas "to 2050 and beyond", and advocating for the development of further gas fields.    Yes, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) and CSIRO see gas being the cheapest way of firming the grid, at peak times when renewables and batteries are stretched. However, over time, this will become an increasingly small part of the grid.   More importantly, with 80% of methane currently being exported, why is Australia not keeping more in reserve for peak domestic demand? The industry will say that there is too little supply in Victoria, and there is no infrastructure to move sufficient gas into the state. With us being able to export gas to Korea and Japan, this argument simply does not pass the pub test!   If this does go ahead, I would expect a host of restrictions and requirements to be needed:   1. Methane has half the emissions of black coal, but only when burnt. If it leaks, then over a 20-year timeline, it is 80x worse than CO2. There should be strict restrictions and penalties for leaks 2. Carbon capture and storage has not operated effectively at scale anywhere in the world. If companies want to commit to this, it should be at their expense, not subsidised, and any shortfall of carbon capture, should lead to reduced gas production 3. Exports may well be required to support the transition away from coal in other countries. Where that occurs, this should be consistent with that countries Paris-aligned transition plans   Without these and other protections, we are giving a green light to continued, unabated production that is sure to compromise global transition plans.  #netzero #netzeroemissions #climatechange #sustainability #leadership #oilandgas

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A thorough deep dive into Aurora Energy Metals ASX:1AE as an investment, the company's eponymous high-grade, uranium project and the opportunity for 1AE to play a meaningful role in meeting the upcoming U3O8 domestic supply crunch in the United States. Read on... #uranium #investment #USA #cleanenergy $1AE #ASX #1AE

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