Fabian Le Gay Brereton

But is it really true? Quote: …both AEMO and the Australian Energy Regulator that highlight how the growth in renewables has lowered wholesale power prices. Unquote. See the comment from Sarah Lawley. Questions for the legal fraternity: Are the agencies that make up the A-team (AEMC, AER, AEMO) • obligated to be independent, or not? • obligated to be truthful, or not? #AEMO #AER #wind #solar #NEM #wholesale #consumers #retail #prices #legislation #regulation #statute

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It’s a matter of public record that I’ve (and others) have been calling out Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on this, and related issues and challenges, for a long time. The fact is that AEMO is simply not suitable as an ISO for a modern high FRE (it’s FORECASTABLE Renewable Energy not Variable) and high CER. AEMO’s lack of consideration of, let alone adherence to, the NEO is appalling. It’s undermining a safe, secure, and resilient transition. … and they are getting away with it by incrementalism and steadfast commitment to the “supply side only control” model which is bluntly not fit for purpose. It’s preoccupied with growing itself as a business, and working with energy businesses, to control the market (read business opportunities) with zero interest let alone commitment to the NEO / “Lowest Community Cost of Energy” / in fact quite the opposite. If AEMO by finally overstepping the mark on MSL has woken up the “frogs on that boil” … then that’s really good! Anna Collyer Benn Barr Clare Savage Lynne Gallagher Jarrod Ball

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#HydrogenHype has been facing a reality check, with many of its anticipated applications proving inefficient and impractical. At the #AllEnergy conference in Melbourne, experts like Alison Reeve from the #GrattanInstitute dismissed the idea of hydrogen replacing natural gas in homes, calling it an expensive and inefficient alternative to #Electricity for cooking and heating. Despite #Toyota showcasing a hydrogen car, the event was dominated by #EV solutions, highlighting the shift toward #Electrification. Reeve emphasized that most industries in Australia can transition to electricity, with minimal dependence on gas, which should be right-sized rather than expanded. While #GreenHydrogen remains relevant for sectors like steel and ammonia, Australian Renewable Energy Agency CEO Darren Miller noted it will require significant #Subsidies and support to overcome high costs. The economic challenge lies in the cost of electrolysers, with #NEM electricity prices far exceeding what’s needed for hydrogen to be viable, underlining the uphill battle for the hydrogen economy.

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Which is it: “variable” or “Reliable”? Governments of Australia and NSW announce underwriting of more “variable renewable energy” in a “Reliable Renewables Plan” under the new Capacity Investment Scheme. Perhaps the capital letters in the media release make all the difference…? https://lnkd.in/gni62FgD. How many folks on LinkedIn think that this makes a) engineering sense b) economic sense and c) political sense. For me (in case you hadn’t guessed) it’s: a) no b) no c) maybe short term, and then another no Quote from the linked media release: “The Albanese Government today announces the largest single ever tender for renewable energy in Australia, with the first auction as part of our Reliable Renewables Plan set for late May. This national Capacity Investment Scheme (CIS) tender will target 6 GW of new variable renewable energy projects for the National Electricity Market (NEM).” My question from Nov 2023 stands: To what degree are wind and solar power like a Ponzi scheme? My answer: to a frighteningly high degree (which surprised me when I first did the comparative analysis). Answers in the comments. Link here if you’ve not read the article, or need a refresh: https://lnkd.in/gavpw4PP #Reliable #Renewables #Plan #Australia #NSW #electricity #AEMO #NEM #Capacity #Investment #Scheme #CIS

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A new era for Australian reporting ‍ In September 2024, the Treasury Laws Amendment (Financial Market Infrastructure and Other Measures) Bill 2024 was passed. This legislation will initially obligate the largest of Australia’s emitters and corporations from 1 January 2025.  ‍ The main requirement is for businesses to disclose information derived from scenario analysis that considers climate risks and opportunities under at least both of the following scenarios: A low global warming scenario (1.5C) A high global warming scenario (2.5C+)  ‍ In addition, businesses need to consider the impacts of identified risks and opportunities on their strategic and forecasted financial performance. ‍ What must be reported ‍ The legislation requires businesses to report the material impacts of identified risks and opportunities associated with climate change on their strategy and forecasted financial performance. This includes disclosure of: Scope 1, Scope 2, and, after the first year, Scope 3 carbon emissions.  A company’s transition plan that is defined as - “an aspect of an entity’s overall strategy that lays out the entity’s targets, actions or resources for its transition towards a lower-carbon economy, including actions such as reducing its greenhouse gas emissions.” ‍ These disclosures must be part of a sustainability report in the annual report to shareholders, alongside the directors’ report, financial report and auditor’s report.  ‍ Critically, directors must declare compliance with the legislation regarding any climate disclosures. There are also increasing assurance requirements like those required for financial reports under the Corporations Act that ratchet up after the first year. This means that auditors must sign off on the reports. ‍ 💡 In carbon reporting, Scope 1, 2, and 3 emissions refer to different categories of greenhouse gas emissions an organization must account for: Scope 1 emissions: Direct emissions from sources owned or controlled by the organization, such as fuel combustion from company vehicles or on-site manufacturing. Scope 2 emissions: Indirect emissions from the generation of purchased energy (like electricity, heating, or cooling) consumed by the organization. ‍ Scope 3 emissions: All other indirect emissions that occur throughout the organization’s value chain, including emissions from suppliers, product use, waste disposal, and employee travel. #carbonemission #australia #energysaving #energyefficiency https://lnkd.in/dnDcNEuM

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So sick of it [Note: thanks to Matthew Bouraee for picking up an error in the original post, incorrectly suggesting that Danny Price used Plexos to replicate AEMO’s Plexos simulations, when he used Frontier Economics’ own in-house model. This emphasises the importance of Report 1 as a calibration exercise before Report 2.] Here’s Danny Price, managing director of Frontier Economics, interviewed by Ali Moore on #ABC Radio Melbourne Drive on 13 December, 2024, after the publication of his report part 2: “What’s in it for me? I’ve spent thirty years trying to make this market work better. And I see time and again, very poor quality debates and ill-informed debates about energy. And I thought, I’m so sick of hearing these sorts of comparisons on nuclear costs like the CSIRO, that I thought I’m just going to do a total systems cost comparison to inform everyone. So everyone can at least have a factual basis on which they can make an argument.” https://lnkd.in/gbFGejrf Kudos to Danny Price for doing what he has done. Hopefully this will break the spell and the conspiracy of silence in corporate #Australia that has been perpetuating the notion that #renewable #energy is the cheapest form of energy. Wanting this to be true, which many people fervently do, does not make it so. The result Danny has seen in his model runs (first to replicate #AEMO’s #ISP work using the #Plexos model, and then to explore the effect of removing the bans and allowing nuclear energy in the system will roughly halve the costs of trying to decarbonise without it) is the same as I have seen in doctoral research I have supervised, also modelling the Eastern Australian power system. Other recent PhDs looking at Germany, Texas and Sweden have found similar results. The result is fully consistent with power system economic theory established for about 75 years, and with empirical observations. Back on 27 June 2022, Dick Smith described the big lie: “Look, there’s a claim at the moment, which is made by the #CSIRO and #AEMO…they say that renewables, they say that wind and solar with storage, is cheaper than coal. Now, it’s not true. And because of that lie, and it’s a lie, we are going to delay moving to something that we have to move to, and that’s nuclear, because you need a baseload power. Renewables are too intermittent to run a whole country on them.”

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Energy Consumers Australia has submitted a rule change proposal to the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) to allow consumers access to real time data. Enabling and empowering consumers to shift when and how they use energy requires timely, and relevant information, and pricing that matches the benefits of the service provided. We need the full suite of options, from simple load data on which heuristics or social practice in the home or in the business can be based, to prices to devices that respond fast, with micro changes in load. Pricing and data go hand in hand with new services business models, including energy management intermediaries and automated direct to customer device management. My co-authors and I discussed aspects of this need for speed, and consumer perspectives, in our paper in IEEE Power and Energy Magazine ( Volume: 20, Issue: 4, July-Aug. 2022) https://lnkd.in/gC6UimJw This is the case Energy Consumers Australia have made. "Access to the insights provided by real time data on energy consumption and generation can help consumers understand and adapt their own behaviour, if they have the ability to do so, helping to lower their electricity bills. Our research has found that consumers want information that could be provided via access to real time data, and they believe it would help them change their behaviour. In June 2021 we asked consumers if they thought having access to energy consumption data would help them reduce their electricity.4 60% of households said they would be interested in receiving access to overall energy usage, followed by 56% who said they were interested in an appliance breakdown. More recently, our research has found that now 78% of households would like to know how different energy uses/major appliances contribute to their bill. In addition, 66% of households are interested in how technology (such as smart meters or home energy management systems) can help make savings on their energy bills. Looking at other essential services such as banking, where 63.6% of consumers use mobile banking apps to access real time information on their accounts, it is clear that consumers want and benefit from access to their data in a clear, timely, and accessible manner. Not all the use cases described above require access to real-time data. For some, on-demand access to historical data may be sufficient. While the focus of this rule change is accessing real-time data, we consider the proposed changes will also support improved competition to develop simple to use data portals, where these are not already available."

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Update from the Great Divide For those not already following the story, the small, grass roots private group Rainforest Reserves Australia #RRA is the only environmental group I am aware of that is speaking up against the placement of large wind power developments on the ridge lines of Australia’s Great Dividing Range. The big-name environment organisations such as the Australian Conservation Foundation #ACF, Friends of the Earth #FoE, #WWF, #Greenpeace, and all of the others remain silent (although apparently it is ‘standard practice’ to take credit when the minister rejects an application, as happened recently at #Chalumbin). RRA have recently released a short video ad on the issue: SAVE THE GREAT DIVIDING RANGE https://lnkd.in/gF8fjw4T What’s your view on this issue? If commenting, please indicate if you consider yourself an environmentalist, and if you are an Australian, in #Australia, or come with an international perspective.

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Government investment in energy generation and storage can ensure a reliable NEM over the next decade – provided they keep up the pace. The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) recently released their 2024 Electricity Statement of Opportunities Report (ESOO). It surveys current and committed investments to provide an outlook on grid reliability within the National Energy Market over the next decade. Our Takeaways: ➡ Federal and State government investment programs in new generation, transmission and storage must be delivered “in full and on time” if reliability risks are to be managed. ➡ The outlook has improved since the last ESOO. In the past year, 5.7GW of generation capacity has progressed to anticipated and committed status – of which batteries comprise 3.9GW. ➡ Consumer energy resources (CER) – meaning household solar and batteries, and certain EVs – will play an increasingly important role in grid stability. Some estimates predict CER will supply over 20% of total demand, and CER contribution to supply will reach 5 times the current supply by 2054. ➡ Queensland is leading the way in renewable energy delivery and supporting commercialisation of local battery technology. Our Outlook: The AEMO notes that “for longer duration peak demand events, battery storage duration will also influence the capability for battery projects to mitigate reliability risks." This is why evaluating and adopting long-duration batteries, like grid-scale flow batteries, will be crucial as fossil fuel generators are retired. Australia has several long-duration battery manufacturing proponents. Since its inception, the AMBC has highlighted the benefits of deploying locally manufactured products for economic development and jobs. As well as why policy support for the battery supply chain needs to be maintained to facilitate more local content in batteries. The AMBC is formulating its next stage of policy recommendations and contributions are welcome. 🔗 Find the full report linked in the comments. Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Department of Energy and Climate, Department of Resources (Queensland), Department of State Development and Infrastructure, Ed Husic MP, Paul Martyn, Mick de Brenni, Michele Bauer, Carlye Sycz, Gavin Loyden, Dominic Spooner, Tom Northcott, Allegro Energy, Redflow.

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This is an outstanding Centre for Independent Studies energy expert panel discussion on the energy landscape in Australia. Leading organizations in the energy sector often focus solely on weather-dependent renewables for a cleaner grid, missing out on the potential of nuclear energy. This approach has led to gaps in scientific reasoning and missed opportunities for a balanced energy transition. Recently, a panel of experts, including Helen Cook, Chris Uhlmann, Adrian (Adi) Paterson, and Aidan Morrison, presented a compelling case for nuclear energy in Australia and addressed key questions about its feasibility, costs, and timelines. The discussion highlights lessons from other countries' energy transitions and the importance of a balanced approach where nuclear complements renewables. They explored practical steps for integrating nuclear energy into Australia's grid. Australia is the only G20 country with a ban on nuclear energy. This panel provides invaluable insights into how we can rethink our approach and leverage nuclear energy for a sustainable future. #energytransition #nuclear Will Shackel Michael Sharpe AUKUS Forum Nuclear for Australia The Hon. Peter Dutton MP Ted O'Brien MP Angus Taylor MP

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Lots of good insights (as always) Tim Buckley. Of particular note: "AEMO now sees distributed consumer energy resources (CER), particularly C&I rooftop #solar, as playing a transformative role in the energy transition as a valuable resource in the future energy system. If well ‘orchestrated’, CER help deliver reliable energy, reduce the need for slow grid infrastructure investment, & reduce costs for consumers as well as slashing energy sector emissions." This is exactly the challenge we are working on at MetroElectro, and one we believe has a very significant role to play in the #energytransition

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Australia’s power market is now the most volatile in the world Australia’s National Electricity Market (NEM), which interconnects power markets in Queensland, New South Wales (NSW), Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia is experiencing the most fluctuations in daily prices of any system worldwide. https://lnkd.in/gkRzeMfY

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As New Zealand electrifies, more grid-scale batteries will maximise the benefits of renewable energy and provide extra resilience during times of tight electricity supply.   You can learn about how grid-scale batteries work and how the Electricity Authority is unlocking the potential for batteries to contribute to security of supply in our latest ‘Eye on electricity’ explainer: https://lnkd.in/gWEQnvhF   #renewableenergy #securityofsupply #electricityindustry

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Sharing network visibility with market participants and customers is one of the key Distribution System Operator (DSO) capabilities, a Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan deliverable and a key initiative of our Future Grid Roadmap. We’ve produced Network Load Capacity maps available online for Energex and Ergon Energy Network to help customers with preliminary planning and feasibility studies, particularly when looking at Electric Vehicle and Customer Energy Resource connections. The interactive map provides indicative information regarding the: location of our assets (bulk, zone substations, HV, MV feeders, distribution transformers) available load capacity at the beginning of MV feeders total capacity of customer energy resources connected to each distribution transformer maximum recorded peak at distribution transformers (where available). We’ve already had positive feedback from a range of stakeholders and we will continue to improve our maps as we receive more information about customers’ expectations. https://lnkd.in/gbPzDKJC #futuregrid #QEJP #Customerengagement

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Sharing network visibility with market participants and customers is one of the key Distribution System Operator (DSO) capabilities, a Queensland Energy and Jobs Plan deliverable and a key initiative of our Future Grid Roadmap. We’ve produced Network Load Capacity maps available online for Energex and Ergon Energy to help customers with preliminary planning and feasibility studies, particularly when looking at Electric Vehicle and Customer Energy Resource connections. The interactive map provides indicative information regarding the: location of our assets (bulk, zone substations, HV, MV feeders, distribution transformers) available load capacity at the beginning of MV feeders total capacity of customer energy resources connected to each distribution transformer maximum recorded peak at distribution transformers (where available). We’ve already had positive feedback from a range of stakeholders and we will continue to improve our maps as we receive more information about customers’ expectations. https://lnkd.in/gRRp7gJi #futuregrid #QEJP #Customerengagement

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Still a long way to go (pun intended), but the ambitious #SunCable project gets environmental approvals on the #Australia side. The company plans to build a 10 gigawatt, 12,400-hectare solar farm near Elliott and transport electricity to Darwin via an 800-kilometre overhead transmission line, then on to Singapore (~2GW) through a 4,200km subsea cable.  A final investment decision on the $30 billion-plus project is not expected until 2027. Singapore is planning to import up to 4GW of low-carbon electricity by 2035, which is expected to constitute about 30 per cent of its electricity supply. https://lnkd.in/gH_eNe9y

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A huge first day at the 2024 Energy in WA Conference as part of Energy Week Western Australia . As someone working with research teams looks at the energy transition through the consumer lens, I loved the reality check that Roland Short of SLR Consulting gave to the industry audience - nobody trusts you, nobody likes you, you are not important. Energy nerds trapped in the energy space often lose touch of the knowledge that most other people aren't fully engaged - or fully on board - with the energy system. It's another space to "say what you will do, do what you will say, and then review". #energyevents #energytransition

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