It is approaching five years since the UK officially left the European Union. And what do we have to show for it? The Tories admit that they took the UK out of the EU without a plan for growth, and the consequences are clear: the cost of living is soaring, public services are on their knees, and growth feels like a dream from a distant era. Though some may not like to hear it, a closer relationship with the EU is a key piece in solving that growth puzzle.
For too long, Westminster has avoided this topic. Any politician, business leader, or journalist brave enough to acknowledge that Brexit has harmed the UK economy was accused of dredging up the past. But, whisper it – times are changing.
Labour has made growth its central mission, and they’ve made it clear a closer UK-EU relationship is part of that vision. In November last year, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey rightly pointed out that Brexit had weighed on the UK’s ability to trade. Even arch-Brexiteer Kemi Badenoch, leader of the Conservative Party, has admitted that her party took the UK out of the EU without a plan for growth. Is politics finally catching up with economic reality?
It seems that public sentiment is. Last year, just after Donald Trump’s November election victory, the Good Growth Foundation thinktank found that post-Brexit Britain is not as anti-EU as some might assume. In a direct choice between closer ties to Europe or the US, the public firmly chose Europe.
Nearly 60% think Europe is more important in terms of trade and economically. Much has shifted since 2016: the pandemic, the cost-of-living crisis, and Russia’s war in Ukraine, to name but a few world-changing events. The UK’s closest trading partner feels more vital now than ever.
But we cannot repeat the mistakes of the past, where European Union membership was distant and disconnected from people’s lives – EU plaques on buildings that were ignored, or the benefits of single market access dismissed as ‘your GDP, not my GDP’.
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Our first report, out next week, shows that the public doesn’t just want growth for its own sake. They want growth that feels tangible and delivers fundamental improvements in their daily lives.
A closer UK-EU relationship must deliver on what people value most: lower living costs, better public services, improved skills and training, and more opportunities. Now it’s on those of us who believe in the benefits of closer economic ties to map out what might be possible – a reasonable landing zone: testing assumptions and red lines, so that a future UK-EU relationship can be grounded in what the public genuinely wants.
If we are serious about fixing our economic stagnation, the EU cannot be sidelined. This problem has always been a political one at its heart. Provided it delivers on people’s priorities, there is a way towards a closer relationship with the EU that is not electorally disastrous – indeed, potentially quite the opposite.
Praful Nargund is the director of the Good Growth Foundation