g2 201806
g2 201806
1
2 28
3 90
4
5 A
⃝
1
⃝
2
⃝
3
⃝
4 Web
Web
6 B 10
3 10 3
7 34
8 23
9
10
1
2
3
1 2017 J
J1 J2 J3
39 36 45 56 32 44
44 50 45 55 53 49
53 G 48 32 44 39 44
64 C 65 70 48 44 F 23 36
28 40 V 64 41 YS 41 G 23 31
49 32 53 71 34 C 23 39
FC 37 41 FC 60 54 34
F 71 58 54 37
FM 45 61 59 50
23 49 36 60
28 85 58 31
44.06 54.45 41.06
12.89 11.77 8.06
1 I III
J1 J2 J3
“ 1 − ×1.5”
“ 3 + ×1.5”
I III 1 5
1
1 I II III
2 II I III
3 II III I
4 III I II
5 III II I
4
2 J2 2
1 5 2
1 0 2 1 3 2 4 3 5 4
5
2 2010 47
2010 47
2015
1 I III
I.
II.
III.
I III 1 5
3
1 I II 2 I III
3 II III 4 III
5 I II III
6
2 I III
I.
II. 1
III. 9
I III 1 5
4
1 I II 2 I III
3 II III 4 I
5 II
( )=a+b×( ) + e1
( )=c+d×( ) + e2
e1 e2
7
I III
I. e1 e2
II.
1
III.
I III 1 5
5
1 I II 2 I III
3 II III 4 I II III
5 I II III
3 2011 2014 5
5
2 100
%
1 2 3 4 5
( )
2017
1 5
1 5
6
1 2 3 4 5
8
2 1 5
7
3 I III
I.
II.
III.
I III 1 5
8
1 I 2 II
3 III 4 I II
5 I III
9
4 2010 2015 2015
100
1 2011 1 5
9
2 2010 2015 r
r 1 5 10
{ ( )}
1 100.0
1 100 −1 %
5 89.5
{( )1/5 }
100.0
2 100 −1 %
89.5
{( )1/5 }
100.0
3 100 −1 %
89.5
{( )1/6 }
100.0
4 100 −1 %
89.5
{( )1/6 }
100.0
5 100 −1 %
89.5
10
5
3
3 1 5
11
1
2
3
4
5
7 3
1 5
12
1 2 3
4 ( ) 5 ( )
11
7 S
T U 3 2
S 2 T U T
U T U S T p U q
0<p<q<1
1 T U T S
1 5 13
1 pq 2 pq + qp 3 p(1 − q) + q(1 − p)
4 pq(1 − p) 5 pq + (1 − p)qp
2 S U U U T
U 1 5
14
1 T U T S
2 U T U S
3 p q S
4 S
5 T U
8 6 4,000 500
1 6 4,800 1
5 15
12
2 6 6 800
1 5
16
3 6 6
1 5
17
2 X Y U V
U = 3X − 2, V = −2Y − 4
U V Cov[U, V ] r[U, V ] 1 5
19
13
10 X1 , . . . , Xn µ σ 2 (> 0)
1∑ 1 ∑
n n
X̄ = Xi S2 = (Xi − X̄)2
n i=1 n − 1 i=1
1 4 2 7 3 11 4 16 5 22
11 1
15
% 15
4,633 7.1 4,542
2,849 9.2 1,150
28
15
15
1 95% 1 5
22
14
2
1 5
23
√ √
N1 p̂1 + N2 p̂2 p̂1 (1 − p̂1 ) p̂2 (1 − p̂2 )
1 −
N1 + N2 n1 n2
N1 p̂1 + N2 p̂2
2
√N (
1 + N2
)2 ( )2
N1 p̂1 (1 − p̂1 ) N2 p̂2 (1 − p̂2 )
+
N1 + N2 n1 N1 + N2 n2
√ √
p̂1 + p̂2 1 p̂1 (1 − p̂1 ) 1 p̂2 (1 − p̂2 )
3 +
2 2 n1 2 n2
p̂1 + p̂2 1
4
2 2
√
1
5 p̂1 + p̂2
n1 + n2
15
12 2017
A B C D E F
218 303 198 296 201 186 233.7 13,549
G H I J K L
209 177 167 145 161 253 185.3 7,763
1 2 t t- 1 5
24
2
F- 1 5
25
16
13 X P0 P1 X 1
H0 : X P0 H1 : X
P1
H0 X (P0 )
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P (X = x) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.15 0.25 0.3
H1 X (P1 )
x 1 2 3 4 5 6
P (X = x) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.05 0.05 0
1 X ≤3 I
1 5 26
1 0.3 0.7
2 0.7 0.9
3 0.7 0.1
4 0.3 0.9
5 0.3 0.1
2 X≤2 II X=6
III I II III
1 5 27
3 I II 0.2 II I
4 I II 0.2 I II
5 I II III
17
14 T 47
10 10
% 1
10
10
Coefficients:
Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
(Intercept) -7.08851 1.92346 -3.685 0.000635
0.09408 0.05541 1.698 0.096773
log( ) 2.41815 0.31781 7.609 1.71e-09
log( ) -0.06498 0.22718 -0.286 0.776233
---
28
28
28 10 1
2016
28
2 β3 −0.5
β3 = −0.5 β3 ̸= −0.5
1 5
29
18
3 I III
I. 1% 0 2
II.
III. 0.58
I III 1 5
30
1 I 2 III 3 I II
4 I III 5 II III
19
15
2017 1 1 12 31
1 2 11 12
105 15
102 143
1
1 5 31
2 χ2 1
5 32
20
3 1 5
2 1 5
126.96, 69.04, 14.96, 6.39, 0.99 33
1 χ2 1 χ2 5%
5%
2 χ2 1 χ2 5%
5%
3 χ2 1 χ2 5%
5%
4 χ2 1 χ2 5%
5%
5 χ2 1 χ2 5%
5%
16 21 A 41 B
A 19.5 B 14.5
5% (20, 40) F ( )
5% ( )
( ) ( ) 1 5
34
1 ( ) 1.34 ( )
2 ( ) 1.81 ( )
3 ( ) 1.81 ( )
4 ( ) 2.13 ( )
5 ( ) 2.13 ( )
21
22
23
1.
Q(u)
0 u
u .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
0.0 0.5000 0.4960 0.4920 0.4880 0.4840 0.4801 0.4761 0.4721 0.4681 0.4641
0.1 0.4602 0.4562 0.4522 0.4483 0.4443 0.4404 0.4364 0.4325 0.4286 0.4247
0.2 0.4207 0.4168 0.4129 0.4090 0.4052 0.4013 0.3974 0.3936 0.3897 0.3859
0.3 0.3821 0.3783 0.3745 0.3707 0.3669 0.3632 0.3594 0.3557 0.3520 0.3483
0.4 0.3446 0.3409 0.3372 0.3336 0.3300 0.3264 0.3228 0.3192 0.3156 0.3121
0.5 0.3085 0.3050 0.3015 0.2981 0.2946 0.2912 0.2877 0.2843 0.2810 0.2776
0.6 0.2743 0.2709 0.2676 0.2643 0.2611 0.2578 0.2546 0.2514 0.2483 0.2451
0.7 0.2420 0.2389 0.2358 0.2327 0.2296 0.2266 0.2236 0.2206 0.2177 0.2148
0.8 0.2119 0.2090 0.2061 0.2033 0.2005 0.1977 0.1949 0.1922 0.1894 0.1867
0.9 0.1841 0.1814 0.1788 0.1762 0.1736 0.1711 0.1685 0.1660 0.1635 0.1611
1.0 0.1587 0.1562 0.1539 0.1515 0.1492 0.1469 0.1446 0.1423 0.1401 0.1379
1.1 0.1357 0.1335 0.1314 0.1292 0.1271 0.1251 0.1230 0.1210 0.1190 0.1170
1.2 0.1151 0.1131 0.1112 0.1093 0.1075 0.1056 0.1038 0.1020 0.1003 0.0985
1.3 0.0968 0.0951 0.0934 0.0918 0.0901 0.0885 0.0869 0.0853 0.0838 0.0823
1.4 0.0808 0.0793 0.0778 0.0764 0.0749 0.0735 0.0721 0.0708 0.0694 0.0681
1.5 0.0668 0.0655 0.0643 0.0630 0.0618 0.0606 0.0594 0.0582 0.0571 0.0559
1.6 0.0548 0.0537 0.0526 0.0516 0.0505 0.0495 0.0485 0.0475 0.0465 0.0455
1.7 0.0446 0.0436 0.0427 0.0418 0.0409 0.0401 0.0392 0.0384 0.0375 0.0367
1.8 0.0359 0.0351 0.0344 0.0336 0.0329 0.0322 0.0314 0.0307 0.0301 0.0294
1.9 0.0287 0.0281 0.0274 0.0268 0.0262 0.0256 0.0250 0.0244 0.0239 0.0233
2.0 0.0228 0.0222 0.0217 0.0212 0.0207 0.0202 0.0197 0.0192 0.0188 0.0183
2.1 0.0179 0.0174 0.0170 0.0166 0.0162 0.0158 0.0154 0.0150 0.0146 0.0143
2.2 0.0139 0.0136 0.0132 0.0129 0.0125 0.0122 0.0119 0.0116 0.0113 0.0110
2.3 0.0107 0.0104 0.0102 0.0099 0.0096 0.0094 0.0091 0.0089 0.0087 0.0084
2.4 0.0082 0.0080 0.0078 0.0075 0.0073 0.0071 0.0069 0.0068 0.0066 0.0064
2.5 0.0062 0.0060 0.0059 0.0057 0.0055 0.0054 0.0052 0.0051 0.0049 0.0048
2.6 0.0047 0.0045 0.0044 0.0043 0.0041 0.0040 0.0039 0.0038 0.0037 0.0036
2.7 0.0035 0.0034 0.0033 0.0032 0.0031 0.0030 0.0029 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026
2.8 0.0026 0.0025 0.0024 0.0023 0.0023 0.0022 0.0021 0.0021 0.0020 0.0019
2.9 0.0019 0.0018 0.0018 0.0017 0.0016 0.0016 0.0015 0.0015 0.0014 0.0014
3.0 0.0013 0.0013 0.0013 0.0012 0.0012 0.0011 0.0011 0.0011 0.0010 0.0010
3.1 0.0010 0.0009 0.0009 0.0009 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007
3.2 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0006 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005
3.3 0.0005 0.0005 0.0005 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0004 0.0003
3.4 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0003 0.0002
3.5 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002 0.0002
3.6 0.0002 0.0002 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
3.7 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
3.8 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001 0.0001
3.9 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
u = 0.00 ∼ 3.99 Q(u)
u = 1.96 1.9 .06 Q(u) = 0.0250
u
24
2. t
÷=4
0 të()
α
ν 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01 0.005
1 3.078 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.656
2 1.886 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925
3 1.638 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841
4 1.533 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604
5 1.476 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032
6 1.440 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707
7 1.415 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499
8 1.397 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355
9 1.383 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250
10 1.372 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169
11 1.363 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106
12 1.356 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055
13 1.350 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012
14 1.345 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977
15 1.341 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947
16 1.337 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921
17 1.333 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898
18 1.330 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878
19 1.328 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861
20 1.325 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845
21 1.323 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831
22 1.321 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819
23 1.319 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807
24 1.318 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797
25 1.316 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787
26 1.315 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779
27 1.314 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771
28 1.313 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763
29 1.311 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756
30 1.310 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750
40 1.303 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704
60 1.296 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660
120 1.289 1.658 1.980 2.358 2.617
240 1.285 1.651 1.970 2.342 2.596
∞ 1.282 1.645 1.960 2.326 2.576
ν t α t tα (ν)
ν = 20 5% (α = 0.05) t0.05 (20) = 1.725
25
3.
÷=5
0 ÿ 2ë (÷)
α
ν 0.99 0.975 0.95 0.90 0.10 0.05 0.025 0.01
1 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 2.71 3.84 5.02 6.63
2 0.02 0.05 0.10 0.21 4.61 5.99 7.38 9.21
3 0.11 0.22 0.35 0.58 6.25 7.81 9.35 11.34
4 0.30 0.48 0.71 1.06 7.78 9.49 11.14 13.28
5 0.55 0.83 1.15 1.61 9.24 11.07 12.83 15.09
6 0.87 1.24 1.64 2.20 10.64 12.59 14.45 16.81
7 1.24 1.69 2.17 2.83 12.02 14.07 16.01 18.48
8 1.65 2.18 2.73 3.49 13.36 15.51 17.53 20.09
9 2.09 2.70 3.33 4.17 14.68 16.92 19.02 21.67
10 2.56 3.25 3.94 4.87 15.99 18.31 20.48 23.21
11 3.05 3.82 4.57 5.58 17.28 19.68 21.92 24.72
12 3.57 4.40 5.23 6.30 18.55 21.03 23.34 26.22
13 4.11 5.01 5.89 7.04 19.81 22.36 24.74 27.69
14 4.66 5.63 6.57 7.79 21.06 23.68 26.12 29.14
15 5.23 6.26 7.26 8.55 22.31 25.00 27.49 30.58
16 5.81 6.91 7.96 9.31 23.54 26.30 28.85 32.00
17 6.41 7.56 8.67 10.09 24.77 27.59 30.19 33.41
18 7.01 8.23 9.39 10.86 25.99 28.87 31.53 34.81
19 7.63 8.91 10.12 11.65 27.20 30.14 32.85 36.19
20 8.26 9.59 10.85 12.44 28.41 31.41 34.17 37.57
25 11.52 13.12 14.61 16.47 34.38 37.65 40.65 44.31
30 14.95 16.79 18.49 20.60 40.26 43.77 46.98 50.89
35 18.51 20.57 22.47 24.80 46.06 49.80 53.20 57.34
40 22.16 24.43 26.51 29.05 51.81 55.76 59.34 63.69
50 29.71 32.36 34.76 37.69 63.17 67.50 71.42 76.15
60 37.48 40.48 43.19 46.46 74.40 79.08 83.30 88.38
70 45.44 48.76 51.74 55.33 85.53 90.53 95.02 100.43
80 53.54 57.15 60.39 64.28 96.58 101.88 106.63 112.33
90 61.75 65.65 69.13 73.29 107.57 113.15 118.14 124.12
100 70.06 74.22 77.93 82.36 118.50 124.34 129.56 135.81
120 86.92 91.57 95.70 100.62 140.23 146.57 152.21 158.95
140 104.03 109.14 113.66 119.03 161.83 168.61 174.65 181.84
160 121.35 126.87 131.76 137.55 183.31 190.52 196.92 204.53
180 138.82 144.74 149.97 156.15 204.70 212.30 219.04 227.06
200 156.43 162.73 168.28 174.84 226.02 233.99 241.06 249.45
240 191.99 198.98 205.14 212.39 268.47 277.14 284.80 293.89
ν α χ2 χ2α (ν)
ν = 20 5% (α = 0.05) 2
χ0.05 (20) = 31.41
26
4. F
÷1 = 10
÷ 2 = 20
0 F ë(1, 2)
α = 0.05
ν2 \ ν1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 40 60 120 ∞
5 6.608 5.786 5.409 5.192 5.050 4.950 4.876 4.818 4.772 4.735 4.619 4.558 4.464 4.431 4.398 4.365
10 4.965 4.103 3.708 3.478 3.326 3.217 3.135 3.072 3.020 2.978 2.845 2.774 2.661 2.621 2.580 2.538
15 4.543 3.682 3.287 3.056 2.901 2.790 2.707 2.641 2.588 2.544 2.403 2.328 2.204 2.160 2.114 2.066
20 4.351 3.493 3.098 2.866 2.711 2.599 2.514 2.447 2.393 2.348 2.203 2.124 1.994 1.946 1.896 1.843
25 4.242 3.385 2.991 2.759 2.603 2.490 2.405 2.337 2.282 2.236 2.089 2.007 1.872 1.822 1.768 1.711
30 4.171 3.316 2.922 2.690 2.534 2.421 2.334 2.266 2.211 2.165 2.015 1.932 1.792 1.740 1.683 1.622
27
40 4.085 3.232 2.839 2.606 2.449 2.336 2.249 2.180 2.124 2.077 1.924 1.839 1.693 1.637 1.577 1.509
60 4.001 3.150 2.758 2.525 2.368 2.254 2.167 2.097 2.040 1.993 1.836 1.748 1.594 1.534 1.467 1.389
120 3.920 3.072 2.680 2.447 2.290 2.175 2.087 2.016 1.959 1.910 1.750 1.659 1.495 1.429 1.352 1.254
α = 0.025
ν2 \ ν1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 40 60 120 ∞
5 10.007 8.434 7.764 7.388 7.146 6.978 6.853 6.757 6.681 6.619 6.428 6.329 6.175 6.123 6.069 6.015
10 6.937 5.456 4.826 4.468 4.236 4.072 3.950 3.855 3.779 3.717 3.522 3.419 3.255 3.198 3.140 3.080
15 6.200 4.765 4.153 3.804 3.576 3.415 3.293 3.199 3.123 3.060 2.862 2.756 2.585 2.524 2.461 2.395
20 5.871 4.461 3.859 3.515 3.289 3.128 3.007 2.913 2.837 2.774 2.573 2.464 2.287 2.223 2.156 2.085
25 5.686 4.291 3.694 3.353 3.129 2.969 2.848 2.753 2.677 2.613 2.411 2.300 2.118 2.052 1.981 1.906
30 5.568 4.182 3.589 3.250 3.026 2.867 2.746 2.651 2.575 2.511 2.307 2.195 2.009 1.940 1.866 1.787
40 5.424 4.051 3.463 3.126 2.904 2.744 2.624 2.529 2.452 2.388 2.182 2.068 1.875 1.803 1.724 1.637
60 5.286 3.925 3.343 3.008 2.786 2.627 2.507 2.412 2.334 2.270 2.061 1.944 1.744 1.667 1.581 1.482
120 5.152 3.805 3.227 2.894 2.674 2.515 2.395 2.299 2.222 2.157 1.945 1.825 1.614 1.530 1.433 1.310
(ν1 , ν2 ) F α F Fα (ν1 , ν2 )
ν1 = 5, ν2 = 20 5% (α = 0.05) F0.05 (5, 20) = 2.711
2018.6
28