International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: [Link] ● Email: editor@[Link]
Statistical Analysis of Road Accidents in India
Vinay Kumar Singh1, Naman Yadav2, Gunjan Singh3
1,2
Student, Amity University Uttar Pradesh, Lucknow
3
Assistant Professor, Amity University Uttar Pradesh, Lucknow
Abstract
India's Transportation Research Department and the National Central Records Bureau issue annual
traffic collision, injury, and fatality statistics. These statistics offer vital information about the nation's
traffic patterns and associated problems. However, the nation's involvement in highway fatality research
is disproportionately tiny, with only 0.7% of papers focusing on this area. Furthermore, injury numbers
are frequently overstated. For every 1,000 road-related deaths, there exists less than one published on
injuries from traffic accidents, indicating a substantial research vacuum. This emphasizes how urgently
more research on diagnosing and treating injuries sustained in traffic is needed. This program is led by
healthcare providers and their respective organizations, who carry out research, promote establishing
initiatives to lessen injuries caused by vehicles. Improving the safety and health of the public as well as
tackling the serious problem of injuries from crashes in India require this coordinated effort.
Keywords: Injury, MoRTH, trend analysis, forecasting.
Introduction
Road accidents are most common in India, according to data from government agencies including the
National Crime Records Bureau and the Ministry of Highways and Road Transport. Whereas causal
analysis looks at environmental elements, safety laws, driver conduct, and road conditions, geographic
analysis finds geographical inequalities and possible underlying causes. In order to effectively manage
traffic accidents in India, it is essential to comprehend risk variables and demographic differences.
Model construction and efficacy can be predicted with the aid of regression analysis and spatial analytic
approaches.
Initiatives for evidence-based policymaking that aim to lower traffic accidents and raise road safety in
India are informed by these insights [1]. Tailoring everyone can benefit from safer driving environments
provided interventions are tailored to specifically target money in areas that can have the greatest impact
and attend to the needs of vulnerable populations.
In India, traffic accidents pose a serious threat to the safety and health of the public and have a profound
effect on both the individual and the community. The nation has an alarming number of traffic accidents
annually, with a significant death and injury toll. In-depth investigation of the patterns, causes, and
effects of traffic accidents in India over the past few years is the goal of this statistical analysis, which
also identifies the critical areas in need of continuous improvement [2].
Millions of kilometres of roads cover India, and they serve a wide range of automobiles and users, such
as motorcyclists, cyclists, walkers, and operators of different types of motorized vehicles. The
administration of road safety is faced with substantial issues due to diversity, which are exacerbated by
IJFMR250137160 Volume 7, Issue 1, January-February 2025 1
International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: [Link] ● Email: editor@[Link]
variables such increasing urbanization, insufficient infrastructure, uneven traffic law enforcement, and
socioeconomic inequality.
In addition to their severe human cost, road accidents in India often result in large financial outlays for
healthcare, property damage, and missed production [3]. Families, communities, the country's response
to emergencies and healthcare systems are all impacted by these costs. Thus, a full grasp of the financial
effects of traffic accidents is necessary in order to prioritize expenditures in road safety measures and
advocate for the allocation of resources [4].
This book aims to contribute to the conversation about highway safety throughout India by providing
trustworthy information about the complex mechanics of collisions. Our goal is to provide stakeholders,
academics, and politicians with the knowledge they need to put focused initiatives and regulations into
place that will drastically lower both the severity and frequency of traffic accidents. Careful statistical
analysis and perceptive data interpretation will be used to achieve this.
Objective
1. To study the cause of accidents corrective measures.
2. To analyse road severity trends over time (yearly).
Data and Methodology
The first step in the process of evaluating traffic accidents in India is gathering a wide variety of
information from sources like traffic authority, police files, and hospital reports[5]. This data is
thoroughly cleaned and prepared to guarantee correctness and dependability. The incidence and
distribution of occurrences, as well as temporal patterns like daily and seasonal fluctuations, are then
summarized using descriptive statistics[6]. While causal inference explains how elements like vehicle
characteristics, traffic patterns, and driver behavior affect accidents, spatial analysis and regression
analysis are used to pinpoint accident hotspots. While grouping aids in identifying underlying trends,
predictive modeling makes use of historical data and projected changes. Interventions to lower traffic
accidents in India are guided by policy evaluation.
Analysis and result
National data of road accident
Annually released by the Administration Research Department of the Indian Ministry of Transportation
and Highways of India, the "Road Injuries in India" report provides an extensive overview of vehicle
registration data from the relevant State or Union Territories. The study was produced as part of the
United Nations Economic and Cultural Committee for Asia and the Pacific's (UN-ESCAP) Asia Pacific
Road Accidents Data (APRAD)/Indian Road Injury Data (IRAD) project. The "Road Transportation
Yearbook" offers an overview of all cars that are registered. Comprehensive data on deaths resulting
from accidents and suicides may be found in the study "Unplanned Fatalities and Suicides in India". A
wide range of stakeholders are served by these publications, including policymakers, law enforcement
officials, transportation departments, experts in road safety, academics, the media, non-governmental
organizations, and others.
Indian statistical trends in road accidents, injuries and fatalities
The nation's increasing road network, rising motor vehicle usage, and growing population are all contri-
IJFMR250137160 Volume 7, Issue 1, January-February 2025 2
International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
E-ISSN: 2582-2160 ● Website: [Link] ● Email: editor@[Link]
buting factors to the rise in traffic accidents, injuries, and [Link] the union territories and states
reported an overall of 4,61,312 traffic accidents in 2022[ figure-1]. At 19% in 2005 to 33.8 percent in
2022, the percentage of fatal accidents in all traffic incidents has increased consistently. Furthermore,
form 21.6 in 2005 to 36.5 in 2022, the percentage of fatalities per 100 incidents indicates the severity of
traffic accidents[Table1].
Number of Persons
Year Number of Accidents
Total Fatal Killed Injured Severity
2005 439255 83491 94968 465282 21.6
2006 460920 93917 105749 496481 22.9
2007 479216 101161 114444 513340 23.9
2008 484704 106591 119860 523193 24.7
2009 486384 110993 125660 515458 25.8
2010 499628 119558 134513 527512 26.9
2011 497686 121618 142485 511394 28.6
2012 490383 123093 138258 509667 28.2
2013 486476 122589 137572 494893 28.3
2014 489400 125828 139671 493474 28.5
2015 505770 132138 146555 503608 29.0
2016 484756 136459 151192 497806 31.2
2017 469242 134796 150003 467389 31.8
2018 470403 137726 157593 464715 32.4
2019 456959 145332 158984 449360 34.8
2020 372381 127307 138383 346747 37.2
2021 412432 142163 153972 384448 37.3
2022 461312 155781 168491 443366 36.5
[Table-1] Total number of road accident, fatal, persons killed, and persons injured during 2005 to
2022
Source: Data Taken from Ministry of Road Transport and Highways
Year-wise Number of Accidents and Fatal cases
Fig (1)
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From 2005 to 2022, the graph displays India's traffic accident and death trends. After a gradual fall until
2010, the COVID-19 pandemic caused a precipitous plunge in 2020. But after 2020, there was a
discernible uptick, suggesting that traffic levels had returned to what they were before the pandemic.
Particularly between 2020 and 2022, there has been a steady rise in the number of fatal incidents. The
graph indicates that traffic control and road infrastructure upgrades have not substantially decreased
fatalities, underscoring the need for more all-encompassing road safety programs.
Year-wise Total Accidents, Killed and Injured cases
Fig (2)
India has had a consistent rise in traffic accidents, fatalities, and accidents between 2005 and 2022,
primarily as a result of urbanization and car ownership. Deaths have not declined in spite of
advancements in traffic management and infrastructure. In 2020, accidents significantly decreased as a
result of the COVID-19 lockdowns. The rise in fatalities emphasizes the necessity of stronger car safety
laws, more stringent traffic enforcement, and public awareness campaigns. Accidents have been
gradually declining as a result of government initiatives including better bridges, highway designs, and
traffic lights.
Year-wise Severity Rate
Fig (3)
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International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
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The graph indicates that the accident seriousness rate increased steadily from 2005 and 2022, with minor
variations from 2012 to 2016. Despite efforts to minimize frequency, the rate increases more quickly in
2017 and peaks around 2020, indicating rising severity. The fact that the peak is close to 40 suggests that
factors influencing accident severity are becoming more significant. After 2020, the rate slightly
declines but is high at 35.
Decadal Trend of Death per 10000 Vehicles in India (1970-2020)
Death rate
(Number of accident deaths per
Year 10000 vehicles)
1970 103.5
1980 53.1
1990 28.2
2000 16.2
2010 10.5
2020 4.2
Table-2 Decadal trends of death per 10000 Vehicle in India
Source: Ministry of Road Transport and Highways
The graph shows a significant decrease in fatal crashes per 10,000 vehicles between 1970 and 2020, with
a peak of 105 fatalities per 10,000 vehicles in 1970. This trend continued, dropping to about 50 injuries
per 10,000 vehicles by 1980, and to around 10 fatalities per 10,000 vehicles by 2010 and five fatalities
per 10,000 vehicles by 2020. Advances in automobile safety, including air bags, anti-lock braking
systems, electronic stability control, seat belt laws, and advanced driver aid systems, have contributed to
this decline.
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Trend analysis of Severity in India
Year Severity
2005 21.6
2006 21.9
2007 23.9
2008 24.7
2009 25.8
2010 26.9
2011 28.6
2012 28.2
2013 28.3
2014 28.5
2015 29
2016 31.2
2017 31.8
2018 32.4
2019 34.8
2020 37.2
2021 37.3
2022 36.5
2023 38.0
2024 38.9
2025 39.8
2026 40.7
2027 41.6
2028 42.5
2029 43.4
2030 44.3
Table-3 Severity in different years
-
TREND ANALYSIS OF SEVERITY IN INDIA
50
40
SEVERITY
30
20
10
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
YEAR
Fig (5)
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According to the "Trend Analysis of Severity in India" graph, severity increased steadily between 2005
and 2030 after first somewhat increasing between 2005 and 2015. Between 2015 and 2020, growth picks
up speed, and by 2030, it is expected to reach 45. This emphasizes the necessity of focused interventions
and legislative actions.
Regression analysis between Severity and time (years)
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SEVERITY DISTRIBUTION OVER YEAR
40
35
30
25
SEVERITY
20 Y
15 Predicted Y
10 Linear (Predicted Y)
5
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
YEAR
Fig(6)
The "Severity Distribution Over Year" graph illustrates how severity levels in India increased from 2005
to 2025. The pattern started in 2005 and increased steadily until 2010. After 2010, the growth became
more apparent, suggesting a quicker tendency. In order to address the root reasons of increasing severity
levels, the graph emphasizes the necessity of swift action and changes to policy. To manage and maybe
reverse this tendency and stop future high severity levels, proactive measures are required.
Correlation: Analysis between time (Year) and Severity
Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
Column 2 0.980075 1
The provided correlation matrix indicates a strong positive correlation between the variables "Year"
(Column 1) and "Severity" (Column 2). The correlation coefficient of 0.980075 suggests that as the year
progresses, the severity tends to increase. This high correlation coefficient, close to 1, implies a strong
linear relationship between the two variables, meaning that changes in the year are closely associated
with changes in the severity. This relationship could be useful for predicting future severity based on the
year or for understanding how severity has trended over time.
Correlation: Analysis between time (Year) and Total Accidents:
Year Total accidents
2005 439255
2006 460920
2007 479216
2008 484704
2009 486384
2010 499628
2011 497686
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International Journal for Multidisciplinary Research (IJFMR)
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2012 490383
2013 486476
2014 489400
2015 505770
2016 484756
2017 469242
2018 470403
2019 456959
2020 372381
2021 412432
2022 461312
Table-4 Total accidents in different years
Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
Column 2 -0.39979105 1
The two variables in the correlation matrix, "Column 1" and "Column 2," have an exact correlation with
one another. On the other hand, their -0.39979105 Pearson correlation suggests a fairly negative
relationship. It is essential to comprehend this inverse relationship in order to forecast the potential
effects of changes in one variable on the other. If, for example, "The column 1" and "Column 2" reflect
speed and accident rate in the context of highway safety, then this negative connection indicates that,
either as fatalities increase, speeds may be decreasing, or greater speeds are slightly associated to fewer
accidents. When making judgments on policies and specific measures to improve road safety, this
knowledge can be very helpful.
Correlation: Analysis between time (Year) and Fatal cases
Year Fatal
2005 83491
2006 93917
2007 101161
2008 106591
2009 110993
2010 119558
2011 121618
2012 123093
2013 122589
2014 125828
2015 132138
2016 136459
2017 134796
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2018 137726
2019 145332
2020 127307
2021 142163
2022 155781
Table-5Fatal in Different years
Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
Column 2 0.937902 1
The correlation matrix indicates a highly substantial positive relationship between the first column and
Column 2, with a mean correlation coefficient of around 0.94. The high correlation suggests that the
numbers in Column 2 tend to grow together with a rise in Column 1 values, and vice versa. When two
variables are strongly correlated, it is likely that they are related and are going in the exact same
direction.
Correlation: Analysis between time (Year) and killed cases
Year Killed
2005 94968
2006 105749
2007 114444
2008 119860
2009 125660
2010 134513
2011 142485
2012 138258
2013 137572
2014 139671
2015 146555
2016 151192
2017 150003
2018 157593
2019 158984
2020 138383
2021 153972
2022 168491
Table-6Killed in different years
Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
Column 2 0.905958 1
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The correlation matrix demonstrates a very high positive relationship between Columns 1 and 2, with an
average correlation coefficient of nearly 0.91. This robust association suggests that the values in the
second column climb in tandem with increases in Column 1 values, and vice versa. The two factors are
most likely connected and will most likely move in the exact same direction, according to such a high
correlation.
Correlation: Analysis between time(Year) and Injured cases
Year Injured
2005 465282
2006 496481
2007 513340
2008 523193
2009 515458
2010 527512
2011 511394
2012 509667
2013 494893
2014 493474
2015 503608
2016 497806
2017 467389
2018 464715
2019 449360
2020 346747
2021 384448
2022 443366
Table-7 Injured in different years
Column 1 Column 2
Column 1 1
Column 2 -0.68421 1
The correlation matrix demonstrates a strong negative relationship between Columns 1 and 2, with a
mean correlation coefficient of about -0.68. This strong negative correlation indicates that the values in
the second column tend to decrease as the values in Column 1 rise and vice versa. Despite moving in
separate directions, the two variables are nevertheless closely related, according to the considerable
inverse connection.
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