Debt Limit Analysis

March 24, 2025

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Contents

Executive Summary Pages 4-6

The X Date Pages 7-10
The Debt Limit Pages 11-15
Extraordinary Measures Pages 16-23
Cash Flows Pages 24-30
Prioritization Pages 31-35
Market Risk Pages 36-46
Appendix Pages 47-50
Executive Summary
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Executive Summary

BPC’s X Date Projection

During debt limit impasses, BPC monitors and analyzes federal cash flows to project the X Date—the
period during which the government is at heightened risk of exhausting available resources and
failing to meet at least some of its obligations.
BPC currently projects that the X Date will most likely fall between mid-July and early October.
This reflects inherent uncertainty over the pace of future revenues and outlays. As more data
becomes available—such as the crucial level of tax collections this April—BPC’s range will narrow.
Elements of uncertainty this year include:
• Strength of tax collections (for example, albeit not very likely, falling far short of expectations
could inject heightened X Date risk in early June ahead of quarterly receipts on June 15)
• Tax filing extensions for several states due to natural disasters that will shift tax revenue to later
in the calendar year
• The potentially elevated pace of disaster recovery spending and the June start of hurricane
season
• New revenue from tariffs
• Changes in and the timing of planned spending or adjustments by Congress and the Department
of Government Efficiency
• The strength of the economy and economic outlook
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Executive Summary

Recent Developments
December 21, 2024: The American Relief Act of 2025 is enacted, including a continuing
resolution through March 14, 2025, and $110 billion in disaster assistance, but it does not
address the pending expiration of the debt limit suspension.
January 2, 2025: Debt limit is reinstated and reset to $36.1 trillion.
January 17: Treasury reports that it has reached the debt limit and will begin using
extraordinary measures on January 21. It declares a debt issuance suspension period (DISP)
through March 14, 2025, to unlock extraordinary measures of approximately $350 billion. These
are deployed along with approximately $700 billion in cash on hand to continue financing
government operations.
February 25: The House passes a budget resolution that includes a $4 trillion debt limit
increase, likely enough to meet all obligations through at least the end of calendar year 2026.
March 14: Treasury extends the DISP through June 27 and urges Congress to act promptly to
protect the full faith and credit of the United States. Treasury will monitor tax season
collections through early May before estimating when its resources will be exhausted.
The X Date
What is it? When is it?
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The X Date

What is the X Date?

X Date: The first day on which Treasury has exhausted its borrowing authority and no longer
has sufficient funds (via extraordinary measures, cash on hand, and daily revenues) to meet all
its obligations in full and on time.
• In other words, if Congress has not increased or suspended the debt limit by the X Date, the
federal government will begin defaulting on some of its obligations.
• After the X Date, bills must be paid out of incoming cash flows, which will generally be
insufficient to cover all government spending.
BPC projects that the X Date will most likely occur between mid-July and early October.
Because it is impossible to exactly predict each and every daily deposit and withdrawal into and
out of the Treasury, no one—not even the Treasury secretary—can know precisely when the
X Date will arrive.
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The X Date

When is the X Date? Absent congressional action, BPC

$900 Actual Projected
projects that the X Date—the date
Cash on Hand + Available EMs ($B)

when the federal government will

$800
be unable to pay all its bills in full
$700 and on time—is most likely to occur
$600
between mid-July and early
October.
$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

$-
March April May June July August September October

Notes: This projection is subject to uncertainty and volatility resulting from economic performance, cash flow
fluctuations, and other factors as BPC attempts to assess millions of payments flowing in and out of the federal
government on a daily basis. Extraordinary measures are reflected at the time that they are expected to become
available. Range reflects cash on hand plus available extraordinary measures, or in other words, remaining room under
the debt limit.
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The X Date

What does BPC’s X Date Range Mean?

Rather than predict a specific day when the U.S. is most likely to begin
defaulting on its obligations, BPC releases a range during which we are
confident that will occur.
• Significant uncertainty exists when attempting to assess millions of
payments flowing in and out of the federal government on a daily basis.
• It is helpful for lawmakers to grasp the earliest that the X Date is likely to
occur and understand there are risks and costs even leading up to that
date.
Policymakers should not interpret BPC’s projection to suggest that they
can delay action on the debt limit until the beginning of the X Date range
without consequence.
• History has shown time and again that real costs and risks to debt limit
brinksmanship begin appearing in the weeks and months prior.
 The Debt Limit
What is it? How does it work? How does Treasury operate when it is reached?
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The Debt Limit

The Basics
The debt limit is:
• The maximum amount that Treasury is allowed to borrow
• Set by statute (Congress must act to change it)
• Equal to debt held by the public (such as Treasury bills and savings bonds) and
intragovernmental debt (such as debt held by the Social Security trust funds)
Because the federal government is running a deficit, Treasury needs to borrow from
the public (i.e., domestic and foreign investors) to cover its obligations. The debt
limit restricts its ability to do so.
Extending the debt limit does not authorize new spending—rather, it enables the
federal government to pay its bills and spend what Congress has already approved.
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The Debt Limit

Recent History
Federal Debt Subject to Limit
2010-2025
$40 trillion
Debt Limit
Since 2011, Reinstated
Congress has $35 trillion
(Jan. 2, 2025)
Debt Limit
repeatedly waited Suspended
until the last minute
$30 trillion
to suspend or
increase the debt
limit, creating $25 trillion Extraordinary Measures
in Use
several “near
misses.” $20 trillion Debt Limit
Increase

Debt Limit
$15 trillion
Near Miss

$10 trillion
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Note: Y-axis does not begin at zero.

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Hours to Deadline Weeks to Deadline Month to Deadline Days to Deadline

On August 2, 2011, with Weeks from the deadline, a On August 2, 2019, about a On June 3, 2023, a day into
hours to act before three-month budget deal month before the the start of BPC’s
Treasury’s deadline and suspends the debt limit until estimated deadline, the projected X Date range, the
after months of deadlocked December 8, 2017. Analysts Bipartisan Budget Act Fiscal Responsibility Act of
negotiations, the Budget worried that an October suspends the debt limit 2023 becomes law. In
Control Act authorizes a payment to the Military until August 1, 2021. August, Fitch Ratings
debt limit increase to Retirement Trust Fund could Congress was prepared to downgrades U.S. long-term
$16.4T. S&P downgrades have triggered a default on head into summer recess government debt, citing the
the U.S.’s credit rating obligations. The limit without action when BPC’s country’s ominous fiscal
from AAA+ to AAA. reinstates at $20.5T. projection accelerated outlook and recurring debt
negotiations. limit brinkmanship.

2011 2013 2017 2018 2019 2021 2023 2025

Day to Deadline Month to Deadline Days to Deadline To Be Determined

Just one day before Treasury’s On February 9, 2018, about On October 14, 2021, with On January 2, 2025, the
deadline, the Continuing a month before Treasury’s days to act, Congress debt limit reinstates at
Appropriations Act suspends the deadline, the Bipartisan raises the debt limit by $36.1 trillion. Treasury
debt limit until February 7, 2014. Budget Act suspends the $480B to secure enough begins extraordinary
The Government Accountability debt limit until March 2, borrowing authority for a measures on January 21.
Office concludes that borrowing 2019, when it is reinstated few months. On December
costs increased by tens of at $22T. 16, 2021, Congress again
millions of dollars as a result of increases the debt limit by
the brinkmanship, which $2.5T to $31.4T.
taxpayers bore through higher
interest rates on Treasury
securities.
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The Debt Limit

What Reaching the Debt Limit Means

Layers of Defense Against Default
The Treasury Department has multiple means to pay the nation’s bills. If
policymakers do not act, however, these layers will be eventually be breached, and
the nation will fail to meet its financial obligations in full and on time.

Traditional Debt Extraordinary Daily Revenue and DEFAULT

Issuance Measures Cash on Hand

Debt Limit EMs

Reached X Date
Exhausted
 Extraordinary Measures
What are they? How do they work? What happens to them when the debt limit is increased?
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Extraordinary Measures

The Big Three Extraordinary Measures

1. G-Fund of the Thrift Savings Plan
Each day, Treasury may temporarily reduce the amount of debt held by this fund, which
holds government bonds for federal employee retirement accounts.

2. Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF)

Treasury may postpone new investments in this pension fund. The CSRDF measure is
most useful in June, September, and December, when major interest credits and
reinvestments of maturing securities occur.

3. Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF)

Each day, Treasury may temporarily reduce the amount of debt held by this fund, which
is used to facilitate foreign exchange transactions.

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Extraordinary Measures

Both Debt Limit

intragovernmental*
(IG) and public**
debt count toward IG Debt
the limit
*Intragovernmental debt: debt
that one part of the government
owes to another (e.g., the Social
Security trust funds).
**Public debt: debt that the
government owes to those outside Public Debt
of the federal government (e.g.,
individuals, businesses, state and
local governments, investment
funds, foreign governments and
individuals, Federal Reserve)
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Extraordinary Measures

Treasury Debt Limit

reduces Extraordinary
certain types Measures (EM)
Create Room
of debt using
extraordinary IG Debt
measures…

Public Debt

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Extraordinary Measures

…to issue Debt Limit

more debt New Public
to the Debt
public.
IG Debt

Existing
Public Debt

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Extraordinary Measures

Issuing debt Debt Limit

raises cash New Public
Cash
to pay bills. Debt

PublicIG Debt
Debt

Existing
Public Debt
IG
Debt
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New Debt Limit

Extraordinary Measures

When the debt Old Debt Limit

limit is New Public
increased… Debt

PublicIG Debt
Debt

Public Debt

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New Debt Limit

Extraordinary Measures
EM Debt
Restored EM Immediately Repaid
…extraordinary Debt
measures are New Public Old Debt Limit
immediately Debt
restored.
PublicIG Debt
Debt

Public Debt

IG
Debt
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 Cash Flows
What are the sources of uncertainty for pinpointing the X Date?
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Cash Flows

Cash Flows Are Usually Cyclical

U.S. Treasury's Monthly Net Operating Cash Flows
2022 2023 2024 2025
$400
$300
$200
Billions of Dollars

$100
$-
$(100)
$(200)
$(300)
$(400)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

1. Tax filers owed refunds 2. The government typically 3. But that surplus
tend to file towards the runs a large surplus in the is eroded over the
beginning of tax season, month of April due to tax next few months
which contributes to large receipts
deficits in February and
March
25 Source: Daily Treasury Statements.
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Cash Flows

Monthly Revenues Vary Greatly

US Treasury Monthly Deposits
2022 2023 2024 2025

$1,000

$900

$800

$700
Billions of Dollars

$600

$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

$0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
26 Source: Daily Treasury Statements.
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Cash Flows

Traditional Sources of Uncertainty

Revenue Growth Major Policy Changes
(e.g., Emergency Spending)
Revenue is generally the more volatile side of Major fiscal policy decisions can alter Treasury
the federal government’s cash flows, varying cash flows, and therefore, the X Date.
from month-to-month and from day-to-day.
For example, in the past, emergency spending
Certain types of revenue, such as the January- on natural disasters has accelerated the X
April tax season and quarterly tax payments Date’s timing.
due in June and September, are especially
unpredictable.

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Cash Flow

Significant Disaster-Related Delays in Tax Collections

The IRS extended tax filing
deadlines in regions Extended Tax
Region Disaster
impacted by major natural Deadline
disasters. Most extensions Alabama Hurricanes Helene and Milton 5/1/25
this year are only to a few Florida Hurricanes Helene and Milton 5/1/25
weeks past April 15. All of Georgia Hurricanes Helene and Milton 5/1/25
those localities also have
their prior year tax deadline North Carolina Hurricanes Helene and Milton 5/1/25
extended to this same date. South Carolina Hurricanes Helene and Milton 5/1/25

During the 2023 debt limit Parts of Tennessee Hurricane Helene 5/1/25
episode, such extensions into January 2025 wildfires and
Los Angeles County, CA 10/15/25
October for all Californians straightline winds
(among other localities) February 2025 severe storms
resulted in tens of billions of Kentucky 11/3/25
and landslides
dollars in delayed tax Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene and
collections, depleting cash Parts of West Virginia 11/3/25
severe storms
reserves and heightening
uncertainty over the X Date. Source: IRS.
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Cash Flows

Natural Disaster Spending

Monthly Net Outlays for FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund
The pace of FEMA relief spending for $6

natural disasters this fiscal year is above

$5
spending levels in comparable periods of
recent years.

Billions of Dollars
$4

This follows passage of the American

$3
Relief Act of 2025, which provided $110
billion in supplemental appropriations for $2
disaster assistance, including $29 billion
for FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund. $1

$0
October November December January February March April May

FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25

Source: Treasury Monthly Statements.

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Cash Flows

Additional Sources of Uncertainty

§ Administrative Actions and Court Challenges: Pauses and cancellations
to federal contracts and reductions in the federal workforce could
disrupt and potentially reduce federal outlays in the near term.
Reactivation of contracts and reinstatement of workers (whether
voluntary or in compliance with court orders), however, could increase
outlays with uncertain timing.
§ Tariff Revenue: New tariffs applied to imports could directly increase
customs collections.
§ Economic Instability: Changes to hiring and business investment in
response to new policies and shifting growth expectations could impact
the government’s fiscal position as the year progresses. Corporate
profits, and therefore tax revenue, could also be affected.
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 Prioritization
How would Treasury respond once extraordinary measures and cash reserves are exhausted?
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Prioritization

Beyond the X Date

Treasury has stated it has no secret bag of tricks to finance government operations past the X Date.
• Treasury will not attempt to “fire sale” assets to avoid or delay congressional action on the debt limit.
• Other ideas have been deemed impractical, illegal, and/or inappropriate and would add significant
reputational harm to existing market risks:
• Minting a trillion-dollar coin to deposit at the Federal Reserve
• Issuing IOUs that could be sold and traded in private markets
• Unilaterally declaring that the Constitution’s 14th Amendment nullifies the debt limit

“The failure to [raise the debt limit] is something that could result in severe damage to the economy and to
financial markets, and it’s just not something we should contemplate. No one should assume the Fed or
anyone else can fully protect the markets or the economy in the event of a failure.”
-Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on crossing the X Date

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Prioritization

How Would Treasury Proceed?

If the X Date is reached, Treasury might either (1) prioritize payments or (2) make
full days’ worth of payments once they receive sufficient revenues to cover all of a
day’s obligations.

Treasury likely has the technological capability to prioritize interest payments on

the federal debt over other obligations under either scenario. In 2014, Treasury sent
a letter to the House financial Services Committee stating it is technically capable
of prioritizing interest payments.

From an operational standpoint, that could become more challenging as other bills
are going unpaid.

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Prioritization

Scenario 1: Pay Some Bills But Not Others

Consequences of this Approach
Treasury and the New York Federal Reserve
The reality would inevitably be chaotic:
might attempt to prioritize some types of
payments over others. Prioritized payments • Unfair results, unanswered questions
would be made on time, while others would • Treasury picking winners and losers
not.
• Public uproar
• Financial market uncertainty
This option would raise operational and legal
challenges for Treasury. It would involve
sorting and choosing from hundreds of millions Economic disruptions could include:
of monthly payments, and a quick, massive
• Immediate cut in federal spending (macroeconomic impacts
overhaul and reprogramming of such on unemployment/growth)
operations may be impossible.
• Many service providers unpaid
• Individuals and business owners not receiving government
Realistically, on a day-to-day basis, fulfilling all checks
payments for important and popular programs • Widespread uncertainty as decisions are made day-by-day
(Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, military
active duty pay) would quickly become • Potential legal challenges over payment prioritization
impossible.
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Prioritization

Scenario 2: Delay All Bills

Treasury might wait until enough revenue is Consequences of this Approach
deposited to cover an entire day’s payments • Current budget deficit means
and then make all those payments at once. that delayed payments would
quickly pile up day after day
For example, upon reaching the X Date, it might take two days of
revenue collections to raise enough cash to make all payments • Financial market uncertainty
due on Day 1. Thus, the first day’s payments would be made one
day late. This, in turn, would delay the second day’s payments to • Immediate cut in federal spending
a later date, and so on. (macroeconomic impacts on
unemployment/growth)
• Individuals and business owners
In the 2012 OIG report, some senior Treasury not receiving government checks
officials stated that they believed this to be the on time
most plausible and least harmful course of • Widespread uncertainty as cash
action. flows change day-by-day
Since debt operations (interest and principal payments) are
handled by a separate computer system, those payments could
likely still be prioritized under this scenario, although legal and
operational question marks would remain.

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 Market Risk
What are the costs of crossing the X Date?
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Market Risk

The Risks Are Real

American taxpayers foot the bill for additional borrowing costs that come from delays in
extending the debt limit.
• In 2013, Fidelity’s money-market funds refused to hold any U.S. government debt maturing in late October
and early November (the period surrounding the projected X Date in that year).
• Both the Federal Reserve and GAO found that approaching the X Date in 2011, 2013, and 2017 increased
the government’s borrowing costs by hundreds of millions of dollars, stemming from elevated interest
rates on U.S. Treasury securities issued leading up to the date when the debt limit was extended.
• In 2011 and 2023, the U.S. sovereign credit rating was downgraded by S&P and Fitch, respectively.
• The costs continue to grow far beyond the debt limit episode because many of the securities issued at
elevated rates remain outstanding and accruing interest for several years.

State and local governments are negatively impacted by debt limit episodes.
On May 1, 2023, Treasury suspended the issuance of State and Local Government Series (SLGS) securities
that help states and localities comply with tax regulations, yielding additional expenses and administrative
costs for those entities. SLGS securities sales resumed in June 2023.

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Market Risk

2017 Debt Limit Episode

Market uncertainty increased interest rates on some Treasury bills maturing near the October X
Date range.

2017 Debt Limit Episode & U.S. Treasury Bill Interest Rates
Interest Rates on Treasury Securities

2.00%

1.75%

1.50%

1.25% l
on th Tr easury Bil
3-M
1.00%
1-Month Treasury Bill
0.75% Interest rate spike in anticipation
of debt limit X Date
0.50%
July August September October November December
Note: Y-axis does not begin at zero. Source: TreasuryDirect.
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Market Risk

2023 Debt Limit Episode

Treasury Bill Yields by Security Maturity Date in 2023 (%)
A similar pattern emerged
during the 2023 debt limit
impasse with Treasury bills
maturing in early June 2023.

Note: Y-axis does not begin at zero. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
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Market Risk

Financial Market Impacts in 2023

Stocks Exposed to Government Spending Reflected Market
Stocks of companies with Risk
greater exposure to
government spending also
showed signs of pricing in
debt limit risks, indicating
impacts felt across
financial markets.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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Market Risk

Credit Default Swaps

U.S. credit default swaps
(CDS) rose as the X Date
approached in past debt
limit episodes, especially
during 2023’s debt limit

Basis points per year

brinksmanship.

Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.

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Market Risk

Treasury Market Disruption

Treasury securities are normally considered safe and liquid, treated as the foundation of
the global financial system because of the perception that the risk of default is negligible.

When a Treasury security matures, Treasury must pay back the principal plus interest due.

Under normal circumstances, Treasury would simply “roll over” the security by auctioning new
debt to pay off the maturing principal.

This action can result in hundreds of billions of dollars rolled over every week.

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Market Risk

Treasury Security Market Disruption

In a post-X Date environment, the roll over operation may not run as smoothly.

Two elements of market risk:

1. Treasury will have to pay higher interest rates to attract new buyers.
2. Though very unlikely, it is possible that not enough bidders would appear at an auction, forcing Treasury
to either use cash on hand to pay off securities that came due or, in a worst-case scenario, default on the
debt.

The 2012 OIG report found that there was substantial concern about this issue among Treasury officials
during the 2011 debt limit event.
In 2013, Fidelity’s money-market funds refused to hold any U.S. government debt maturing in late October
and early November (the period surrounding the projected X Date in that year).

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Market Risk

Credit Rating Risk

Past debt limit episodes resulted in downgrades to the U.S. credit rating. Further
downgrades could increase the cost of government borrowing and result in some funds
choosing not to hold U.S. Treasuries.

Standard & Poor’s: In August 2011, S&P downgraded U.S. government debt, citing political brinkmanship and
the country’s fiscal outlook.
Fitch: In August 2023, Fitch Ratings downgraded U.S. long-term government debt from AAA to AA+, citing
the country’s ominous fiscal outlook, a dysfunctional political system, and recurring debt limit brinkmanship.
It was the first credit downgrade for the U.S. since Standard & Poor’s nearly 12 years before to the day.

There is uncertainty about the effects of another downgrade, since many funds are prohibited from holding
non-AAA or AA+ securities.

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Market Risk

GAO on Treasury Securities, Market

Risk, and How to Reduce it
“The United States benefits from the confidence investors have that debt backed by the full faith and
credit of the United States will be honored. Because Treasury securities are viewed as one of the safest
assets in the world, they are broadly held by individuals—often in pension funds or mutual funds—and by
institutions and central banks for use in everyday transactions. Treasury securities are also the cheapest
and one of the most widely used forms of collateral for financial transactions. In many ways, U.S. Treasury
securities are the underpinning of the world financial system.”
As we have also previously reported, delays in raising the debt limit can create uncertainty in the Treasury
market. To avoid such uncertainty and the disruption to the Treasury market that it creates as well as to
help inform the fiscal policy debate in a timely way, we have suggested in our February 2011 and July 2012
reports related to the debt limit that Congress should consider ways to better link decisions about the
debt limit with decisions about spending and revenue at the time those decisions are made. ”

Source: Government Accountability Office Audit of the U.S. Government’s Consolidated Financial Statements for Fiscal Years 2013 and
2014.

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Market Risk

Market Risks Beyond the X Date

§ Treasury market, interest rates

§ Equity markets (including 401(k)s, IRAs, and other pensions)

§ U.S. economy, including missed payments to businesses and individuals

§ The global financial system

§ No guarantee of the outcome; risks are risks

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Appendix
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Methodology & Assumptions

BPC Methodology
Analyze financial data from the Treasury Department using:
• Daily Treasury Statements
• Government Account Statements
Project monthly operating cash flow and change in intragovernmental debt using:
• Historical financial data
• CBO analysis of spending and revenue growth
• Adjustments for anticipated issues (e.g., extraordinary measures that become available on certain dates)
• Adjustments for changes in revenue and spending due to COVID-19, pandemic aftermath, persistent
inflation, etc.
Assumptions:
• No major shocks (e.g., deep recession, extensive natural disaster, new overseas conflict) that could
materially affect government finances.

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Methodology & Assumptions

Additional Resources
BPC’s Debt Limit Analysis
Home page for all of BPC’s debt limit analysis—past and present—including information on our X Date
range and reform proposal.

Treasury Department
Leading up to and during a Debt Issuance Suspension Period, Treasury releases updates to the public on the
status of extraordinary measures and available headroom.

Congressional Budget Office (CBO)

CBO's Budget and Economic Outlook forecasts 10-year spending and revenue patterns, and the agency
projects its own estimate of when extraordinary measures and Treasury’s existing cash on hand will
exhaust.

Congressional Research Service (CRS)

CRS has chronicled each recent debt limit episode since 2011, and provides useful explainers on several fiscal
issues, including the debt limit.

Government Accountability Office (GAO)

GAO summarizes information for the public on the federal debt and offers its own analysis of our country’s
debt management challenges.
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Authors

SHAI AKABAS RACHEL SNYDERMAN CALEB QUAKENBUSH UPAMANYU LAHIRI FRED HERNANDEZ
Vice President, Managing Director, Associate Director, Policy Analyst, Policy Analyst,
Economic Policy Economic Policy Fiscal Policy Economic Policy Economic Policy

Media & Press Inquiries Political Inquiries

Erin Meade | Director, Policy Communications David Brown | Director, BPC Action
emeade@[Link] dbrown@[Link]
(412) 389-4790 (713) 851-3473

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