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Malfunction Probability Analysis

The document presents calculations of probabilities related to malfunctions from three sources A, B, and C. It includes the probabilities of malfunctions being due to human error for each source and applies Bayes' rule to find the probability that a malfunction report came from source C given that it was due to human error. The final probability calculated for P(C | H) is approximately 0.26.

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20 views1 page

Malfunction Probability Analysis

The document presents calculations of probabilities related to malfunctions from three sources A, B, and C. It includes the probabilities of malfunctions being due to human error for each source and applies Bayes' rule to find the probability that a malfunction report came from source C given that it was due to human error. The final probability calculated for P(C | H) is approximately 0.26.

Uploaded by

abcaya.emmytamem
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

PHM628: Probability and Statistics

Name: ID: 32/32

The probability that a malfunction came from B is


number of malfunctions reports came from B
P( B) =
total number of malfunctions
Hence,
15
P( B) =  0.35
43
The probability that a malfunction came from A is
number of malfunctions reports came from A
P( A) =
total number of malfunctions
Hence,
18
P( B) =  0.42
43
Let’s now calculate the probability that malfunction report came from A is due to human
errors (i. e. let’s find P( H | A) .
number of malfunctions reports came from A is due to human error
P( H | A) =
total number of malfunctions came from A
7
P( H | A) =  0.39
18
The probability that malfunction report came from B is due to human errors (i. e. let’s find
P( H | B) .
number of malfunctions reports came from B is due to human error
P( H | B) =
total number of malfunctions came from B

7
P( H | B) =  0.47
15
The probability that malfunction report came from C is due to human errors (i. e. let’s find
P( H | C ) .

number of malfunctions reports came from C is due to human error


P( H | C ) =
total number of malfunctions came from C

5
P( H | C ) =  0.5
10
Finally, using Bayes’ rule, we get the required probability as follows:
P( H | C ) P(C )
P(C | H ) =
P( H | C ) P(C ) + P( H | B) P( B) + P( H | A) P( A)
(0.5)(0.23) 0.115
= =  0.26
(0.5)(0.23) + (0.47)(0.35) + (0.39)(0.42) 0.4433

19
Note: We can get P( H ) =  0.4419 directly
43

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