Lin01803_ch05_144-185.

qxd 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 144

5
Learning Objectives
When you have completed
A Survey of Probability
this chapter, you will be
able to:
Concepts
LO1 Explain the terms experi-
ment, event, and outcome.

LO2 Identify and apply the

appropriate approach to as-
signing probabilities.

LO3 Calculate probabilities

using the rules of addition.

LO4 Define the term joint

probability.

LO5 Calculate probabilities

using the rules of multiplication.

LO6 Define the term condi-

tional probability.

LO7 Compute probabilities

using a contingency table.

LO8 Calculate probabilities

using Bayes’ theorem.
It was found that 60 percent of the tourists to China visited the
LO9 Determine the number Forbidden City, the Temple of Heaven, the Great Wall, and other
of outcomes using the appro-
priate principle of counting. historical sites in or near Beijing. Forty percent visited Xi’an and its
magnificent terracotta soldiers, horses, and chariots, which lay buried
for over 2,000 years. Thirty percent of the tourists went to both Beijing
and Xi’an. What is the probability that a tourist visited at least one of
these places? (See Exercise 76 and LO4.)
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 145

A Survey of Probability Concepts 145

5.1 Introduction
The emphasis in Chapters 2, 3, and 4 is on descriptive statistics. In Chapter 2, we
organize the profits on 180 vehicles sold by the Applewood Auto Group into a fre-
quency distribution. This frequency distribution shows the smallest and the largest
profits and where the largest concentration of data occurs. In Chapter 3, we use
numerical measures of location and dispersion to locate a typical profit on vehicle
sales and to examine the variation in the profit of a sale. We describe the variation
in the profits with such measures of dispersion as the range and the standard devi-
ation. In Chapter 4, we develop charts and graphs, such as a scatter diagram, to
further describe the data graphically.
Descriptive statistics is concerned with summarizing data collected from past
events. We now turn to the second facet of statistics, namely, computing the chance
that something will occur in the future. This facet of statistics is called statistical
inference or inferential statistics.
Seldom does a decision maker have complete information to make a decision.
For example:
• Toys and Things, a toy and puzzle man-
ufacturer, recently developed a new game
based on sports trivia. It wants to know
whether sports buffs will purchase the
game. “Slam Dunk” and “Home Run” are
two of the names under consideration.
One way to minimize the risk of making
an incorrect decision is to hire a market
research firm to select a sample of 2,000
consumers from the population and ask
each respondent for a reaction to the new
game and its proposed titles. Using the
sample results, the company can estimate the proportion of the population that
will purchase the game.
• The quality assurance department of a Bethlehem Steel mill must assure man-
agement that the quarter-inch wire being produced has an acceptable ten-
sile strength. Obviously, not all the wire produced can be tested for tensile
strength because testing requires the wire to be stretched until it breaks—thus
destroying it. So a random sample of 10 pieces is selected and tested. Based
on the test results, all the wire produced is deemed to be either acceptable or
unacceptable.
• Other questions involving uncertainty are: Should the daytime drama Days of Our
Lives be discontinued immediately? Will a newly developed mint-flavored cereal
be profitable if marketed? Will Charles Linden be elected to county auditor in
Batavia County?
Statistical inference deals with conclusions about a population based on a sam-
ple taken from that population. (The populations for the preceding illustrations are: all
consumers who like sports trivia games, all the quarter-inch steel wire produced, all
television viewers who watch soaps, all who purchase breakfast cereal, and so on.)
Because there is uncertainty in decision making, it is important that all the known
risks involved be scientifically evaluated. Helpful in this evaluation is probability the-
ory, which has often been referred to as the science of uncertainty. The use of prob-
ability theory allows the decision maker with only limited information to analyze the
risks and minimize the gamble inherent, for example, in marketing a new product or
accepting an incoming shipment possibly containing defective parts.
Because probability concepts are so important in the field of statistical inference
(to be discussed starting with Chapter 8), this chapter introduces the basic language
of probability, including such terms as experiment, event, subjective probability, and
addition and multiplication rules.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 146

146 Chapter 5

5.2 What Is a Probability?

No doubt you are familiar with terms such as probability, chance, and likelihood. They
are often used interchangeably. The weather forecaster announces that there is a
70 percent chance of rain for Super Bowl Sunday. Based on a survey of consumers
who tested a newly developed pickle with a banana taste, the probability is .03 that,
if marketed, it will be a financial success. (This means that the chance of the banana-
flavor pickle being accepted by the public is rather remote.) What is a probability? In
general, it is a number that describes the chance that something will happen.

PROBABILITY A value between zero and one, inclusive, describing the relative
possibility (chance or likelihood) an event will occur.

A probability is frequently expressed as a decimal, such as .70, .27, or .50. How-

ever, it may be given as a fraction such as 7/10, 27/100, or 1/2. It can assume any
number from 0 to 1, inclusive. If a company has only five sales regions, and each re-
gion’s name or number is written on a slip of paper and the slips put in a hat, the prob-
ability of selecting one of the five regions is 1. The probability of selecting from the hat
a slip of paper that reads “Pittsburgh Steelers” is 0. Thus, the probability of 1 repre-
sents something that is certain to happen, and the probability of 0 represents some-
thing that cannot happen.
The closer a probability is to 0, the more improbable it is the event will happen.
The closer the probability is to 1, the more sure we are it will happen. The relationship
is shown in the following diagram along with a few of our personal beliefs. You might,
however, select a different probability for Slo Poke’s chances to win the Kentucky
Derby or for an increase in federal taxes.

Cannot Sure to
happen happen

0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

Probability Chance Chance of a Chance Chance of

our sun will Slo Poke will head in of an rain in
disappear win the single toss increase Florida
this year Kentucky of a coin in federal this year
Derby taxes

Three key words are used in the study of probability: experiment, outcome,
and event. These terms are used in our everyday language, but in statistics they
have specific meanings.

EXPERIMENT A process that leads to the occurrence of one and only one of
several possible observations.

LO1 Explain the terms This definition is more general than the one used in the physical sciences, where
experiment, event, and we picture someone manipulating test tubes or microscopes. In reference to prob-
outcome. ability, an experiment has two or more possible results, and it is uncertain which
will occur.

OUTCOME A particular result of an experiment.

Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/18/10 8:36 PM Page 147

A Survey of Probability Concepts 147

For example, the tossing of a coin is an experiment. You may observe the toss of
the coin, but you are unsure whether it will come up “heads” or “tails.” Similarly, ask-
ing 500 college students whether they would purchase a new Dell computer system at
a particular price is an experiment. If the coin is tossed, one particular outcome is a
“head.” The alternative outcome is a “tail.” In the computer purchasing experiment,
one possible outcome is that 273 students indicate they would purchase the com-
puter. Another outcome is that 317 students would purchase the computer. Still an-
other outcome is that 423 students indicate that they would purchase it. When one or
more of the experiment’s outcomes are observed, we call this an event.

EVENT A collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment.

Examples to clarify the definitions of the terms experiment, outcome, and event
are presented in the following figure.
In the die-rolling experiment, there are six possible outcomes, but there are many
possible events. When counting the number of members of the board of directors for
Fortune 500 companies over 60 years of age, the number of possible outcomes can
be anywhere from zero to the total number of members. There are an even larger num-
ber of possible events in this experiment.

Experiment Roll a die Count the number

of members of the board of directors
for Fortune 500 companies who
are over 60 years of age

All possible outcomes Observe a 1 None are over 60

Observe a 2 One is over 60
Observe a 3 Two are over 60
Observe a 4 ...
Observe a 5 29 are over 60
Observe a 6 ...
...
48 are over 60
...

Some possible events Observe an even number More than 13 are over 60
Observe a number greater than 4 Fewer than 20 are over 60
Observe a number 3 or less

Self-Review 5–1 Video Games Inc. recently developed a new video game. Its playability is to be tested
by 80 veteran game players.
(a) What is the experiment?
(b) What is one possible outcome?
(c) Suppose 65 players tried the new game and said they liked it. Is 65 a probability?
(d) The probability that the new game will be a success is computed to be ⫺1.0. Comment.
(e) Specify one possible event.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 148

148 Chapter 5

5.3 Approaches to Assigning Probabilities

Two approaches to assigning probabilities to an event will be discussed, namely,
the objective and the subjective viewpoints. Objective probability is subdivided into
(1) classical probability and (2) empirical probability.

Classical Probability
LO2 Identify and apply Classical probability is based on the assumption that the outcomes of an experi-
the appropriate approach ment are equally likely. Using the classical viewpoint, the probability of an event
to assigning probabilities. happening is computed by dividing the number of favorable outcomes by the num-
ber of possible outcomes:

Probability Number of favorable outcomes

CLASSICAL PROBABILITY  [5–1]
of an event Total number of possible outcomes

Example Consider an experiment of rolling a six-sided die. What is the probability of the event
“an even number of spots appear face up”?

Solution The possible outcomes are:

a one-spot a four-spot

a two-spot a five-spot

a three-spot a six-spot

There are three “favorable” outcomes (a two, a four, and a six) in the collection of
six equally likely possible outcomes. Therefore:
3 d Number of favorable outcomes
Probability of an even number 
6 d Total number of possible outcomes

 .5

The mutually exclusive concept appeared earlier in our study of frequency distribu-
tions in Chapter 2. Recall that we create classes so that a particular value is included
in only one of the classes and there is no overlap between classes. Thus, only one
of several events can occur at a particular time.

MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE The occurrence of one event means that none of the other
events can occur at the same time.

The variable “gender” presents mutually exclusive outcomes, male and female. An
employee selected at random is either male or female but cannot be both. A manu-
factured part is acceptable or unacceptable. The part cannot be both acceptable and
unacceptable at the same time. In a sample of manufactured parts, the event of
selecting an unacceptable part and the event of selecting an acceptable part are mu-
tually exclusive.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 149

A Survey of Probability Concepts 149

If an experiment has a set of events that includes every possible outcome, such
as the events “an even number” and “an odd number” in the die-tossing experiment,
then the set of events is collectively exhaustive. For the die-tossing experiment,
every outcome will be either even or odd. So the set is collectively exhaustive.

COLLECTIVELY EXHAUSTIVE At least one of the events must occur when an

experiment is conducted.

If the set of events is collectively exhaustive and the events are mutually exclu-
sive, the sum of the probabilities is 1. Historically, the classical approach to proba-
bility was developed and applied in the 17th and 18th centuries to games of chance,
such as cards and dice. It is unnecessary to do an experiment to determine the prob-
ability of an event occurring using the classical approach because the total number
of outcomes is known before the experiment. The flip of a coin has two possible out-
comes; the roll of a die has six possible outcomes. We can logically arrive at the prob-
ability of getting a tail on the toss of one coin or three heads on the toss of three
coins.
The classical approach to probability can also be applied to lotteries. In South
Carolina, one of the games of the Education Lottery is “Pick 3.” A person buys a lot-
tery ticket and selects three numbers between 0 and 9. Once per week, the three
numbers are randomly selected from a machine that tumbles three containers each
with balls numbered 0 through 9. One way to win is to match the numbers and the or-
der of the numbers. Given that 1,000 possible outcomes exist (000 through 999), the
probability of winning with any three-digit number is 0.001, or 1 in 1,000.

Empirical Probability
Empirical or relative frequency is the second type of objective probability. It is based
on the number of times an event occurs as a proportion of a known number of trials.

EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY The probability of an event happening is the fraction

of the time similar events happened in the past.

In terms of a formula:
Number of times the event occurs
Empirical probability 
Total number of observations
The empirical approach to probability is based on what is called the law of large
numbers. The key to establishing probabilities empirically is that more observations
will provide a more accurate estimate of the probability.

LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS Over a large number of trials, the empirical probability
of an event will approach its true probability.

To explain the law of large numbers, suppose we toss a fair coin. The result of each
toss is either a head or a tail. With just one toss of the coin the empirical proba-
bility for heads is either zero or one. If we toss the coin a great number of times,
the probability of the outcome of heads will approach .5. The following table reports
the results of an experiment of flipping a fair coin 1, 10, 50, 100, 500, 1,000, and
10,000 times and then computing the relative frequency of heads. Note as we increase
the number of trials the empirical probability of a head appearing approaches .5, which
is its value based on the classical approach to probability.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 150

150 Chapter 5

Number of Trials Number of Heads Relative Frequency of Heads

1 0 .00
10 3 .30
50 26 .52
100 52 .52
500 236 .472
1,000 494 .494
10,000 5,027 .5027

What have we demonstrated? Based on the classical definition of probability, the likeli-
hood of obtaining a head in a single toss of a fair coin is .5. Based on the empirical
or relative frequency approach to probability, the probability of the event happening
approaches the same value based on the classical definition of probability.
This reasoning allows us to use the empirical or relative frequency approach to
finding a probability. Here are some examples.
• Last semester, 80 students registered for Business Statistics 101 at Scandia
University. Twelve students earned an A. Based on this information and the em-
pirical approach to assigning a probability, we estimate the likelihood a student
will earn an A is .15.
• Kobe Bryant of the Los Angeles Lakers made 403 out of 491 free throw attempts
during the 2009–10 NBA season. Based on the empirical rule of probability, the
likelihood of him making his next free throw attempt is .821.
Life insurance companies rely on past data to determine the acceptability of an
applicant as well as the premium to be charged. Mortality tables list the likelihood
a person of a particular age will die within the upcoming year. For example, the likeli-
hood a 20-year-old female will die within the next year is .00105.
The empirical concept is illustrated with the following example.

Example On February 1, 2003, the Space Shuttle Columbia exploded. This was the second
disaster in 113 space missions for NASA. On the basis of this information, what is
the probability that a future mission is successfully completed?

Solution To simplify, letters or numbers may be used. P stands for probability, and in this
case P(A) stands for the probability a future mission is successfully completed.
Number of successful flights
Probability of a successful flight 
Total number of flights
111
P(A)   .98
113
We can use this as an estimate of probability. In other words, based on past experi-
ence, the probability is .98 that a future space shuttle mission will be safely completed.

Subjective Probability
If there is little or no experience or information on which to base a probability, it
may be arrived at subjectively. Essentially, this means an individual evaluates the
available opinions and information and then estimates or assigns the probability.
This probability is aptly called a subjective probability.

SUBJECTIVE CONCEPT OF PROBABILITY The likelihood (probability) of a particular

event happening that is assigned by an individual based on whatever information
is available.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 151

A Survey of Probability Concepts 151

Illustrations of subjective probability are:

1. Estimating the likelihood the New England Patriots will play in the Super Bowl
next year.
2. Estimating the likelihood you will be married before the age of 30.
3. Estimating the likelihood the U.S. budget deficit will be reduced by half in the
next 10 years.
The types of probability are summarized in Chart 5–1. A probability statement
always assigns a likelihood to an event that has not yet occurred. There is, of course,
a considerable latitude in the degree of uncertainty that surrounds this probability,
based primarily on the knowledge possessed by the individual concerning the
underlying process. The individual possesses a great deal of knowledge about the
toss of a die and can state that the probability that a one-spot will appear face up
on the toss of a true die is one-sixth. But we know very little concerning the accep-
tance in the marketplace of a new and untested product. For example, even though
a market research director tests a newly developed product in 40 retail stores and
states that there is a 70 percent chance that the product will have sales of more
than 1 million units, she has limited knowledge of how consumers will react when
it is marketed nationally. In both cases (the case of the person rolling a die and the
testing of a new product), the individual is assigning a probability value to an event
of interest, and a difference exists only in the predictor’s confidence in the preci-
sion of the estimate. However, regardless of the viewpoint, the same laws of proba-
bility (presented in the following sections) will be applied.

Approaches to Probability

Objective Subjective

Based on available
Classical Probability Empirical Probability information

Based on equally Based on relative

likely outcomes frequencies

CHART 5–1 Summary of Approaches to Probability

Self-Review 5–2 1. One card will be randomly selected from a standard 52-card deck. What is the proba-
bility the card will be a queen? Which approach to probability did you use to answer
this question?
2. The Center for Child Care reports on 539 children and the marital status of their par-
ents. There are 333 married, 182 divorced, and 24 widowed parents. What is the prob-
ability a particular child chosen at random will have a parent who is divorced? Which
approach did you use?
3. What is the probability that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will exceed 12,000 dur-
ing the next 12 months? Which approach to probability did you use to answer this
question?
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 152

152 Chapter 5

Exercises
1. Some people are in favor of reducing federal taxes to increase consumer spending and oth-
ers are against it. Two persons are selected and their opinions are recorded. Assuming no
one is undecided, list the possible outcomes.
2. A quality control inspector selects a part to be tested. The part is then declared acceptable,
repairable, or scrapped. Then another part is tested. List the possible outcomes of this ex-
periment regarding two parts.
3. A survey of 34 students at the Wall College of Business showed the following majors:

Accounting 10
Finance 5
Economics 3
Management 6
Marketing 10

Suppose you select a student and observe his or her major.

a. What is the probability he or she is a management major?
b. Which concept of probability did you use to make this estimate?
4. A large company that must hire a new president prepares a final list of five candidates,
all of whom are equally qualified. Two of these candidates are members of a minority group.
To avoid bias in the selection of the candidate, the company decides to select the president
by lottery.
a. What is the probability one of the minority candidates is hired?
b. Which concept of probability did you use to make this estimate?
5. In each of the following cases, indicate whether classical, empirical, or subjective probabil-
ity is used.
a. A baseball player gets a hit in 30 out of 100 times at bat. The probability is .3 that
he gets a hit in his next at bat.
b. A seven-member committee of students is formed to study environmental issues. What
is the likelihood that any one of the seven is chosen as the spokesperson?
c. You purchase one of 5 million tickets sold for Lotto Canada. What is the likelihood you
will win the $1 million jackpot?
d. The probability of an earthquake in northern California in the next 10 years above 5.0
on the Richter Scale is .80.
6. A firm will promote two employees out of a group of six men and three women.
a. List the chances of this experiment if there is particular concern about gender equity.
b. Which concept of probability would you use to estimate these probabilities?
7. A sample of 40 oil industry executives was selected to test a questionnaire. One question
about environmental issues required a yes or no answer.
a. What is the experiment?
b. List one possible event.
c. Ten of the 40 executives responded yes. Based on these sample responses, what is
the probability that an oil industry executive will respond yes?
d. What concept of probability does this illustrate?
e. Are each of the possible outcomes equally likely and mutually exclusive?
8. A sample of 2,000 licensed drivers revealed the following number of speeding violations.

Number of Violations Number of Drivers

0 1,910
1 46
2 18
3 12
4 9
5 or more 5
Total 2,000

a. What is the experiment?

b. List one possible event.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 153

A Survey of Probability Concepts 153

c. What is the probability that a particular driver had exactly two speeding violations?
d. What concept of probability does this illustrate?
9. Bank of America customers select their own three-digit personal identification number
(PIN) for use at ATMs.
a. Think of this as an experiment and list four possible outcomes.
b. What is the probability Mr. Jones and Mrs. Smith select the same PIN?
c. Which concept of probability did you use to answer (b)?
10. An investor buys 100 shares of AT&T stock and records its price change daily.
a. List several possible events for this experiment.
b. Estimate the probability for each event you described in (a).
c. Which concept of probability did you use in (b)?

5.4 Some Rules for Computing Probabilities

Now that we have defined probability and described the different approaches to prob-
ability, we turn our attention to computing the probability of two or more events by
applying rules of addition and multiplication.

Rules of Addition
There are two rules of addition, the special rule of addition and the general rule of
addition. We begin with the special rule of addition.

LO3 Calculate Special Rule of Addition To apply the special rule of addition, the events must
probabilities using the be mutually exclusive. Recall that mutually exclusive means that when one event oc-
rules of addition. curs, none of the other events can occur at the same time. An illustration of mutually
exclusive events in the die-tossing experiment is the events “a number 4 or larger”
and “a number 2 or smaller.” If the outcome is in the first group {4, 5, and 6}, then it
cannot also be in the second group {1 and 2}. Another illustration is a product coming
off the assembly line cannot be defective and satisfactory at the same time.
If two events A and B are mutually exclusive, the special rule of addition states
that the probability of one or the other event’s occurring equals the sum of their
probabilities. This rule is expressed in the following formula:

SPECIAL RULE OF ADDITION P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B) [5–2]

For three mutually exclusive events designated A, B, and C, the rule is written:

P(A or B or C)  P(A)  P(B)  P(C)

An example will help to show the details.

Example A machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of beans, broccoli, and other vegetables.
Most of the bags contain the correct weight, but because of the variation in the size
of the beans and other vegetables, a package might be
underweight or overweight. A check of 4,000 packages
filled in the past month revealed:

Number of Probability of
Weight Event Packages Occurrence
100
Underweight A 100 .025 d
4,000
Satisfactory B 3,600 .900
Overweight C 300 .075
4,000 1.000
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 154

154 Chapter 5

What is the probability that a particular package will be either underweight or overweight?

Solution The outcome “underweight” is the event A. The outcome “overweight” is the event
C. Applying the special rule of addition:
P(A or C)  P(A)  P(C)  .025  .075  .10
Note that the events are mutually exclusive, meaning that a package of mixed veg-
etables cannot be underweight, satisfactory, and overweight at the same time. They
are also collectively exhaustive; that is, a selected package must be either under-
weight, satisfactory, or overweight.

English logician J. Venn (1834–1923) developed a diagram to portray graphically

the outcome of an experiment. The mutually exclusive concept and various other rules
for combining probabilities can be illustrated using this device. To construct a Venn di-
agram, a space is first enclosed representing the total of all possible outcomes. This
space is usually in the form of a rectangle. An event is then represented by a circular
area which is drawn inside the rectangle proportional to the probability of the event.
The following Venn diagram represents the mutually exclusive concept. There is no
overlapping of events, meaning that the events are mutually exclusive. In the follow-
ing diagram, assume the events A, B, and C are about equally likely.

Event Event Event

A B C

Complement Rule The probability that a bag of mixed vegetables selected is

underweight, P(A), plus the probability that it is not an underweight bag, written
P(⬃A) and read “not A,” must logically equal 1. This is written:
P(A)  P(⬃A)  1
This can be revised to read:

COMPLEMENT RULE P(A)  1  P(⬃A) [5–3]

This is the complement rule. It is used to determine the probability of an event

occurring by subtracting the probability of the event not occurring from 1. This rule
is useful because sometimes it is easier to calculate the probability of an event hap-
pening by determining the probability of it not happening and subtracting the result
from 1. Notice that the events A and ⬃A are mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive. Therefore, the probabilities of A and ⬃A sum to 1. A Venn diagram illus-
trating the complement rule is shown as:

Event
A

⬃A
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 155

A Survey of Probability Concepts 155

Example Recall the probability a bag of mixed vegetables is underweight is .025 and the prob-
ability of an overweight bag is .075. Use the complement rule to show the probability
of a satisfactory bag is .900. Show the solution using a Venn diagram.

Solution The probability the bag is unsatisfactory equals the probability the bag is overweight
plus the probability it is underweight. That is, P(A or C)  P(A)  P(C)  .025  .075 
.100. The bag is satisfactory if it is not underweight or overweight, so P(B)  1  [P(A) 
P(C)]  1  [.025  .075]  0.900. The Venn diagram portraying this situation is:

A
.025
C
.075

not A or C
.90

Self-Review 5–3 A sample of employees of Worldwide Enterprises is to be surveyed about a new health
care plan. The employees are classified as follows:

Classification Event Number of Employees

Supervisors A 120
Maintenance B 50
Production C 1,460
Management D 302
Secretarial E 68

(a) What is the probability that the first person selected is:
(i) either in maintenance or a secretary?
(ii) not in management?
(b) Draw a Venn diagram illustrating your answers to part (a).
(c) Are the events in part (a)(i) complementary or mutually exclusive or both?

The General Rule of Addition The outcomes of an experiment may not be

mutually exclusive. Suppose, for illustration, that the Florida Tourist Commission
selected a sample of 200 tourists who visited the state during the year. The survey
revealed that 120 tourists went to Disney World and 100 went to Busch Gardens
near Tampa. What is the probability that a person selected visited either Disney
World or Busch Gardens? If the special rule of addition is used, the probability of
selecting a tourist who went to Disney World is .60, found by 120/200. Similarly, the
probability of a tourist going to Busch Gardens is .50. The sum of these probabili-
ties is 1.10. We know, however, that this probability cannot be greater than 1. The
explanation is that many tourists visited both attractions and are being counted
twice! A check of the survey responses revealed that 60 out of 200 sampled did,
in fact, visit both attractions.
To answer our question, “What is the probability a selected person visited either
Disney World or Busch Gardens?” (1) add the probability that a tourist visited Disney
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 156

156 Chapter 5

Statistics in Action
If you wish to get
some attention at the
next gathering you
attend, announce
that you believe that
at least two people
present were born on
the same date—that
is, the same day of
the year but not nec-
essarily the same World and the probability he or she visited Busch Gardens, and (2) subtract the prob-
year. If there are 30 ability of visiting both. Thus:
people in the room, P(Disney or Busch)  P(Disney)  P(Busch)  P(both Disney and Busch)
the probability of a
 .60  .50  .30  .80
duplicate is .706. If
there are 60 people When two events both occur, the probability is called a joint probability. The prob-
in the room, the ability that a tourist visits both attractions (.30) is an example of a joint probability.
probability is .994 The following Venn diagram shows two events that are not mutually exclusive.
that at least two peo- The two events overlap to illustrate the joint event that some people have visited
ple share the same both attractions.
birthday. With as few
as 23 people the
chances are even,
that is .50, that at P(Disney) = .60 P(Busch) = .50
least two people
share the same birth-
day. Hint: To com-
pute this, find the
probability everyone
was born on a differ-
ent day and use the
complement rule.
Try this in your class.
P(Disney and Busch) = .30

LO4 Define the term JOINT PROBABILITY A probability that measures the likelihood two or more
joint probability. events will happen concurrently.

This rule for two events designated A and B is written:

GENERAL RULE OF ADDITION P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B) [5–4]

Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 157

A Survey of Probability Concepts 157

For the expression P(A or B), the word or suggests that A may occur or B may occur.
This also includes the possibility that A and B may occur. This use of or is some-
times called an inclusive. You could also write P(A or B or both) to emphasize that
the union of the events includes the intersection of A and B.
If we compare the general and special rules of addition, the important differ-
ence is determining if the events are mutually exclusive. If the events are mutually
exclusive, then the joint probability P(A and B) is 0 and we could use the special
rule of addition. Otherwise, we must account for the joint probability and use the
general rule of addition.

Example What is the probability that a card chosen at random from a standard deck of cards
will be either a king or a heart?

Solution We may be inclined to add the probability of a king and the probability of a heart.
But this creates a problem. If we do that, the king of hearts is counted with the
kings and also with the hearts. So, if we simply add the probability of a king (there
are 4 in a deck of 52 cards) to the probability of a heart (there are 13 in a deck of
52 cards) and report that 17 out of 52 cards meet the requirement, we have counted
the king of hearts twice. We need to subtract 1 card from the 17 so the king of
hearts is counted only once. Thus, there are 16 cards that are either hearts or kings.
So the probability is 16/52  .3077.

Card Probability Explanation

King P (A )  4/52 4 kings in a deck of 52 cards
Heart P (B )  13/52 13 hearts in a deck of 52 cards
King of Hearts P ( A and B )  1/52 1 king of hearts in a deck of 52 cards

From formula (5–4):

P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B)

 4/52  13/52  1/52
 16/52, or .3077

A Venn diagram portrays these outcomes, which are not mutually exclusive.

Hearts

Kings
A
A and B
B

Both
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 158

158 Chapter 5

Self-Review 5–4 Routine physical examinations are conducted annually as part of a health service program
for General Concrete Inc. employees. It was discovered that 8 percent of the employees
need corrective shoes, 15 percent need major dental work, and 3 percent need both
corrective shoes and major dental work.
(a) What is the probability that an employee selected at random will need either corrective
shoes or major dental work?
(b) Show this situation in the form of a Venn diagram.

Exercises
11. The events A and B are mutually exclusive. Suppose P(A)  .30 and P(B)  .20. What
is the probability of either A or B occurring? What is the probability that neither A nor B
will happen?
12. The events X and Y are mutually exclusive. Suppose P(X)  .05 and P(Y)  .02. What is
the probability of either X or Y occurring? What is the probability that neither X nor Y will
happen?
13. A study of 200 advertising firms revealed their income after taxes:

Income after Taxes Number of Firms

Under $1 million 102
$1 million to $20 million 61
$20 million or more 37

a. What is the probability an advertising firm selected at random has under $1 million in
income after taxes?
b. What is the probability an advertising firm selected at random has either an income
between $1 million and $20 million, or an income of $20 million or more? What rule
of probability was applied?
14. The chair of the board of directors says, “There is a 50 percent chance this company
will earn a profit, a 30 percent chance it will break even, and a 20 percent chance it will
lose money next quarter.”
a. Use an addition rule to find the probability the company will not lose money next
quarter.
b. Use the complement rule to find the probability it will not lose money next quarter.
15. Suppose the probability you will get an A in this class is .25 and the probability you will
get a B is .50. What is the probability your grade will be above a C?
16. Two coins are tossed. If A is the event “two heads” and B is the event “two tails,” are
A and B mutually exclusive? Are they complements?
17. The probabilities of the events A and B are .20 and .30, respectively. The probability that
both A and B occur is .15. What is the probability of either A or B occurring?
18. Let P(X)  .55 and P(Y)  .35. Assume the probability that they both occur is .20. What
is the probability of either X or Y occurring?
19. Suppose the two events A and B are mutually exclusive. What is the probability of their
joint occurrence?
20. A student is taking two courses, history and math. The probability the student will pass
the history course is .60, and the probability of passing the math course is .70. The prob-
ability of passing both is .50. What is the probability of passing at least one?
21. A survey of grocery stores in the Southeast revealed 40 percent had a pharmacy, 50 per-
cent had a floral shop, and 70 percent had a deli. Suppose 10 percent of the stores
have all three departments, 30 percent have both a pharmacy and a deli, 25 percent
have both a floral shop and deli, and 20 percent have both a pharmacy and floral
shop.
a. What is the probability of selecting a store at random and finding it has both a phar-
macy and a floral shop?
b. What is the probability of selecting a store at random and finding it has both a phar-
macy and a deli?
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 159

A Survey of Probability Concepts 159

c. Are the events “select a store with a deli” and “select a store with a pharmacy” mutu-
ally exclusive?
d. What is the name given to the event of “selecting a store with a pharmacy, a floral
shop, and a deli?”
e. What is the probability of selecting a store that does not have all three departments?
22. A study by the National Park Service revealed that 50 percent of vacationers going
to the Rocky Mountain region visit Yellowstone Park, 40 percent visit the Tetons, and
35 percent visit both.
a. What is the probability a vacationer will visit at least one of these attractions?
b. What is the probability .35 called?
c. Are the events mutually exclusive? Explain.

Rules of Multiplication
When we used the rules of addition in the previous section, we found the likelihood
of combining two events. In this section, we find the likelihood that two events both
happen. For example, a marketing firm may want to estimate the likelihood that a
person is 21 years old or older and buys a Hummer. Venn diagrams illustrate this as
the intersection of two events. To find the likelihood of two events happening we
use the rules of multiplication. There are two rules of multiplication, the special rule
and the general rule.

Special Rule of Multiplication The special rule of multiplication requires that

two events A and B are independent. Two events are independent if the occurrence
of one event does not alter the probability of the occurrence of the other event.

INDEPENDENCE The occurrence of one event has no effect on the probability of

the occurrence of another event.

One way to think about independence is to assume that events A and B occur
at different times. For example, when event B occurs after event A occurs, does A
have any effect on the likelihood that event B occurs? If the answer is no, then A
and B are independent events. To illustrate independence, suppose two coins are
tossed. The outcome of a coin toss (head or tail) is unaffected by the outcome of any
other prior coin toss (head or tail).
For two independent events A and B, the probability that A and B will both occur
is found by multiplying the two probabilities. This is the special rule of multiplication
and is written symbolically as:

LO5 Calculate SPECIAL RULE OF MULTIPLICATION P(A and B)  P(A)P(B) [5–5]

probabilities using the
rules of multiplication.
For three independent events, A, B, and C, the special rule of multiplication
used to determine the probability that all three events will occur is:
P(A and B and C)  P(A)P(B)P(C)

Example A survey by the American Automobile Association (AAA) revealed 60 percent of its
members made airline reservations last year. Two members are selected at random.
What is the probability both made airline reservations last year?

Solution The probability the first member made an airline reservation last year is .60, written
P(R1)  .60, where R1 refers to the fact that the first member made a reservation.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 160

160 Chapter 5

The probability that the second member selected made a reservation is also .60, so
P(R2)  .60. Since the number of AAA members is very large, you may assume that
R1 and R2 are independent. Consequently, using formula (5–5), the probability they
both make a reservation is .36, found by:
P(R1 and R2)  P(R1)P(R2)  (.60)(.60)  .36
All possible outcomes can be shown as follows. R means a reservation is made,
and NR means no reservation was made.
With the probabilities and the complement rule, we can compute the joint prob-
ability of each outcome. For example, the probability that neither member makes a
reservation is .16. Further, the probability of the first or the second member (spe-
cial addition rule) making a reservation is .48 (.24  .24). You can also observe that
the outcomes are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. Therefore, the
probabilities sum to 1.00.

Outcomes Joint Probability

R1 R2 (.60)(.60)  .36
R1 NR2 (.60)(.40)  .24
NR1 R2 (.40)(.60)  .24
NR1 NR2 (.40)(.40)  .16
Total 1.00

Self-Review 5–5 From experience, Teton Tire knows the probability is .95 that a particular XB-70 tire will
last 60,000 miles before it becomes bald or fails. An adjustment is made on any tire that
does not last 60,000 miles. You purchase four XB-70s. What is the probability all four tires
will last at least 60,000 miles?

General Rule of Multiplication If two events are not independent, they are
referred to as dependent. To illustrate dependency, suppose there are 10 cans of
soda in a cooler, 7 are regular and 3 are diet. A can is selected from the cooler.
The probability of selecting a can of diet soda is 3/10, and the probability of
selecting a can of regular soda is 7/10. Then a second can is selected from the
cooler, without returning the first. The probability the second is diet depends on
whether the first one selected was diet or not. The probability that the second is
diet is:

2/9, if the first can is diet. (Only two cans of diet soda remain in the cooler.)
3/9, if the first can selected is regular. (All three diet sodas are still in the
cooler.)

The fraction 2/9 (or 3/9) is aptly called a conditional probability because its value
is conditional on (dependent on) whether a diet or regular soda was the first selec-
tion from the cooler.

LO6 Define the term CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY The probability of a particular event occurring, given
conditional probability. that another event has occurred.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 161

A Survey of Probability Concepts 161

We use the general rule of multiplication to find the joint probability of two events when
the events are not independent. For example, when event B occurs after event A
occurs, and A has an effect on the likelihood that event B occurs, then A and B are
not independent.
The general rule of multiplication states that for two events, A and B, the joint
probability that both events will happen is found by multiplying the probability that
event A will happen by the conditional probability of event B occurring given that
A has occurred. Symbolically, the joint probability, P(A and B), is found by:

GENERAL RULE OF MULTIPLICATION P(A and B)  P(A)P(B ƒ A) [5–6]

Example A golfer has 12 golf shirts in his closet. Suppose 9 of these shirts are white and the
others blue. He gets dressed in the dark, so he just grabs a shirt and puts it on.
He plays golf two days in a row and does not do laundry. What is the likelihood
both shirts selected are white?

Solution The event that the first shirt selected is white is W1. The probability is P(W1)  9/12
because 9 of the 12 shirts are white. The event that the second shirt selected is
also white is identified as W2. The conditional probability that the second shirt
selected is white, given that the first shirt selected is also white, is P(W2 ƒW1)  8/11.
Why is this so? Because after the first shirt is selected there are only 11 shirts
remaining in the closet and 8 of these are white. To determine the probability of 2
white shirts being selected, we use formula (5–6).

P(W1 and W2)  P(W1)P(W2 ƒ W1)  a b a b  .55

9 8
12 11

So the likelihood of selecting two shirts and finding them both to be white is .55.

Incidentally, it is assumed that this experiment was conducted without replacement.

That is, the first shirt was not laundered and put back in the closet before the sec-
ond was selected. So the outcome of the second event is conditional or dependent
on the outcome of the first event.
We can extend the general rule of multiplication to more than two events. For
three events A, B, and C, the formula is:

P(A and B and C)  P(A)P(B ƒ A)P(C ƒ A and B)

In the case of the golf shirt example, the probability of selecting three white shirts
without replacement is:

P(W1 and W2 and W3)  P(W1)P(W2 ƒ W1)P(W3 ƒ W1 and W2)  a b a b a b  .38

9 8 7
12 11 10

So the likelihood of selecting three shirts without replacement and all being white is .38.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 162

162 Chapter 5

Self-Review 5–6 The board of directors of Tarbell Industries consists of eight men and four women. A four-
member search committee is to be chosen at random to conduct a nationwide search for
a new company president.
(a) What is the probability all four members of the search committee will be women?
(b) What is the probability all four members will be men?
(c) Does the sum of the probabilities for the events described in parts (a) and (b) equal 1?
Explain.

5.5 Contingency Tables

Often we tally the results of a survey in a two-way table and use the results of
this tally to determine various probabilities. We described this idea beginning on
page 126 in Chapter 4. To review, we refer to a two-way table as a contingency
Statistics in Action table.
In 2000 George W.
Bush won the U.S.
CONTINGENCY TABLE A table used to classify sample observations according to
presidency by the
slimmest of margins.
two or more identifiable characteristics.
Many election stories
resulted, some in-
A contingency table is a cross-tabulation that simultaneously summarizes two vari-
volving voting irreg-
ables of interest and their relationship. The level of measurement can be nominal.
ularities, others
Below are several examples.
raising interesting
election questions. In • A survey of 150 adults classified each as to gender and the number of movies
a local Michigan elec- attended last month. Each respondent is classified according to two criteria—
tion, there was a tie be- the number of movies attended and gender.
tween two candidates
for an elected posi-
tion. To break the tie, Gender
the candidates drew a
Movies Attended Men Women Total
slip of paper from a
box that contained 0 20 40 60
two slips of paper, one 1 40 30 70
marked “Winner” 2 or more 10 10 20
and the other un- Total 70 80 150
marked. To determine
which candidate drew
first, election officials • The American Coffee Producers Association reports the following information
flipped a coin. The on age and the amount of coffee consumed in a month.
winner of the coin flip
also drew the winning
slip of paper. But was Coffee Consumption
the coin flip really
Age (Years) Low Moderate High Total
necessary? No, be-
cause the two events Under 30 36 32 24 92
are independent. 30 up to 40 18 30 27 75
Winning the coin flip 40 up to 50 10 24 20 54
did not alter the prob- 50 and over 26 24 29 79
ability of either candi- Total 90 110 100 300
date drawing the
winning slip of paper.
According to this table, each of the 300 respondents is classified according to two
criteria: (1) age and (2) the amount of coffee consumed.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 163

A Survey of Probability Concepts 163

LO7 Compute The following example shows how the rules of addition and multiplication are
probabilities using a used when we employ contingency tables.
contingency table.

Example A sample of executives were surveyed about loyalty to their company. One of the ques-
tions was, “If you were given an offer by another company equal to or slightly bet-
ter than your present position, would you remain with the company or take the other
position?” The responses of the 200 executives in the survey were cross-classified
with their length of service with the company. (See Table 5–1.)

TABLE 5–1 Loyalty of Executives and Length of Service with Company

Length of Service
Less than 1–5 6–10 More than
1 Year, Years, Years, 10 Years,
Loyalty B1 B2 B3 B4 Total
Would remain, A1 10 30 5 75 120
Would not remain, A2 25 15 10 30 80
35 45 15 105 200

What is the probability of randomly selecting an executive who is loyal to the com-
pany (would remain) and who has more than 10 years of service?

Solution Note that two events occur at the same time—the executive would remain with the
company, and he or she has more than 10 years of service.
1. Event A1 happens if a randomly selected executive will remain with the company
despite an equal or slightly better offer from another company. To find the proba-
bility that event A1 will happen, refer to Table 5–1. Note there are 120 executives
out of the 200 in the survey who would remain with the company, so P(A1) 
120/200, or .60.
2. Event B4 happens if a randomly selected executive has more than 10 years of ser-
vice with the company. Thus, P(B4 ƒ A1) is the conditional probability that an exec-
utive with more than 10 years of service would remain with the company despite
an equal or slightly better offer from another company. Referring to the contin-
gency table, Table 5–1, 75 of the 120 executives who would remain have more
than 10 years of service, so P(B4 ƒ A1)  75/120.
Solving for the probability that an executive randomly selected will be one who would
remain with the company and who has more than 10 years of service with the com-
pany, using the general rule of multiplication in formula (5–6), gives:

P(A1 and B4)  P(A1)P(B4 ƒ A1)  a ba b 

120 75 9,000
 .375
200 120 24,000
To find the probability of selecting an executive who would remain with the com-
pany or has less than 1 year of experience, we use the general rule of addition, for-
mula (5–4).
1. Event A1 refers to executives that would remain with the company. So P(A1) 
120/200  .60.
2. Event B1 refers to executives that have been with the company less than 1 year.
The probability of B1 is P(B1)  35/200  .175.
3. The events A1 and B1 are not mutually exclusive. That is, an executive can both
be willing to remain with the company and have less than 1 year of experience.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 164

164 Chapter 5

We write this probability, which is called the joint probability, as P(A1 and B1).
There are 10 executives who would both stay with the company and have less
than 1 year of service, so P(A1 and B1)  10/200  .05. These 10 people are
in both groups, those who would remain with the company and those with less
than 1 year with the company. They are actually being counted twice, so we
need to subtract out this value.
4. We insert these values in formula (5–4) and the result is as follows.

P(A1 or B1)  P(A1)  P(B1)  P(A1 and B1)

 .60  .175  .05  .725

So the likelihood that a selected executive would either remain with the company
or has been with the company less than 1 year is .725.

Self-Review 5–7 Refer to Table 5–1 on page 163 to find the following probabilities.
(a) What is the probability of selecting an executive with more than 10 years of service?
(b) What is the probability of selecting an executive who would not remain with the com-
pany, given that he or she has more than 10 years of service?
(c) What is the probability of selecting an executive with more than 10 years of service
or one who would not remain with the company?

5.6 Tree Diagrams

The tree diagram is a graph that is helpful in organizing calculations that involve
several stages. Each segment in the tree is one stage of the problem. The branches
of a tree diagram are weighted by probabilities. We will use the data in Table 5–1
to show the construction of a tree diagram.
1. To construct a tree diagram, we begin by drawing a heavy dot on the left to
represent the root of the tree (see Chart 5–2).
2. For this problem, two main branches go out from the root, the upper one repre-
senting “would remain” and the lower one “would not remain.” Their probabilities
are written on the branches, namely, 120/200 and 80/200. These probabilities
could also be denoted P(A1) and P(A2).
3. Four branches “grow” out of each of the two main branches. These branches
represent the length of service—less than 1 year, 1–5 years, 6–10 years, and
more than 10 years. The conditional probabilities for the upper branch of the
tree, 10/120, 30/120, 5/120, and so on are written on the appropriate branches.
These are P(B1 ƒ A1), P(B2 ƒ A1), P(B3 ƒ A1), and P(B4 ƒ A1), where B1 refers to less than
1 year of service, B2 1 to 5 years, B3 6 to 10 years, and B4 more than 10 years.
Next, write the conditional probabilities for the lower branch.
4. Finally, joint probabilities, that the events A1 and Bi or the events A2 and Bi will
occur together, are shown on the right side. For example, the joint probability
of randomly selecting an executive who would remain with the company and
who has less than 1 year of service, from formula (5–6), is:

P(A1 and B1)  P(A1)P(B1 ƒ A1)  a ba b  .05

120 10
200 120
Because the joint probabilities represent all possible outcomes (would
remain, 6–10 years service; would not remain, more than 10 years of service;
etc.), they must sum to 1.00 (see Chart 5–2).
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 165

A Survey of Probability Concepts 165

Loyalty Service

Conditional Joint
probabilities probabilities

10
____ 120  ____
Less than 1 year ____ 10  .050
120 200 120

30
____ 120  ____
30  .150
120 1– 5 years ____
200 120
Would
remain
5 6–10 years 120  ____
____ 5  .025
____ 200 120
120
120
____
200
75
____ Over 10 years 120  ____
____ 75  .375
120 200 120

25
___ 80 
Less than 1 year ____ 25  .125
___
80 80 200 80
____
200
15
___ 80  15  .075
80 1–5 years ____ ___
200 80
Would not
remain
10 6–10 years 80 
____ 10  .050
___
___ 200 80
80

30
___ Over 10 years 80 
____ 30  .150
___
80 200 80

Must total 1.00 1.000

CHART 5–2 Tree Diagram Showing Loyalty and Length of Service

Self-Review 5–8 Consumers were surveyed on the relative number of visits to a Sears store (often, occa-
sional, and never) and if the store was located in an enclosed mall (yes and no). When
variables are measured nominally, such as these data, the results are usually summarized
in a contingency table.

Enclosed Mall
Visits Yes No Total
Often 60 20 80
Occasional 25 35 60
Never 5 50 55
90 105 195

(a) Are the number of visits and enclosed mall variables independent? Why? Interpret your
conclusion.
(b) Draw a tree diagram and determine the joint probabilities.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 166

166 Chapter 5

Exercises
23. Suppose P(A)  .40 and P(B @ A)  .30. What is the joint probability of A and B?
24. Suppose P(X1)  .75 and P(Y2 @ X1)  .40. What is the joint probability of X1 and Y2?
25. A local bank reports that 80 percent of its customers maintain a checking account, 60 per-
cent have a savings account, and 50 percent have both. If a customer is chosen at ran-
dom, what is the probability the customer has either a checking or a savings account? What
is the probability the customer does not have either a checking or a savings account?
26. All Seasons Plumbing has two service trucks that frequently need repair. If the probabil-
ity the first truck is available is .75, the probability the second truck is available is .50,
and the probability that both trucks are available is .30, what is the probability neither
truck is available?
27. Refer to the following table.

First Event
Second Event A1 A2 A3 Total
B1 2 1 3 6
B2 1 2 1 4
Total 3 3 4 10

a. Determine P(A1).
b. Determine P(B1 ƒ A2).
c. Determine P(B2 and A3).
28. Three defective electric toothbrushes were accidentally shipped to a drugstore by Clean-
brush Products along with 17 nondefective ones.
a. What is the probability the first two electric toothbrushes sold will be returned to the
drugstore because they are defective?
b. What is the probability the first two electric toothbrushes sold will not be defective?
29. Each salesperson at Puchett, Sheets, and Hogan Insurance Agency is rated either below
average, average, or above average with respect to sales ability. Each salesperson is
also rated with respect to his or her potential for advancement—either fair, good, or
excellent. These traits for the 500 salespeople were cross-classified into the following
table.

Potential for Advancement

Sales Ability Fair Good Excellent
Below average 16 12 22
Average 45 60 45
Above average 93 72 135

a. What is this table called?

b. What is the probability a salesperson selected at random will have above average
sales ability and excellent potential for advancement?
c. Construct a tree diagram showing all the probabilities, conditional probabilities, and
joint probabilities.
30. An investor owns three common stocks. Each stock, independent of the others, has
equally likely chances of (1) increasing in value, (2) decreasing in value, or (3) remaining
the same value. List the possible outcomes of this experiment. Estimate the probability
at least two of the stocks increase in value.
31. The board of directors of a small company consists of five people. Three of those are
“strong leaders.” If they buy an idea, the entire board will agree. The other “weak” mem-
bers have no influence. Three salespeople are scheduled, one after the other, to make
sales presentations to a board member of the salesperson’s choice. The salespeople are
convincing but do not know who the “strong leaders” are. However, they will know who
the previous salespeople spoke to. The first salesperson to find a strong leader will win the
account. Do the three salespeople have the same chance of winning the account? If not,
find their respective probabilities of winning.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 167

A Survey of Probability Concepts 167

32. If you ask three strangers about their birthdays, what is the probability: (a) All were born
on Wednesday? (b) All were born on different days of the week? (c) None were born on
Saturday?

5.7 Bayes’ Theorem

LO8 Calculate In the 18th century, Reverend Thomas Bayes, an English Presbyterian minister, pon-
probabilities using dered this question: Does God really exist? Being interested in mathematics, he
Bayes’ theorem. attempted to develop a formula to arrive at the probability God does exist based on
evidence available to him on earth. Later Pierre-Simon Laplace refined Bayes’ work
and gave it the name “Bayes’ theorem.” In a workable form, Bayes’ theorem is:

P(Ai )P(B ƒ Ai )
BAYES’ THEOREM P(Ai ƒ B)  [5–7]
P(A1)P(B ƒ A1)  P(A2)P(B ƒ A2)

Assume in formula 5–7 that the events A1 and A2 are mutually exclusive and col-
Statistics in Action lectively exhaustive, and Ai refers to either event A1 or A2. Hence A1 and A2 are in
A recent study by the this case complements. The meaning of the symbols used is illustrated by the fol-
National Collegiate lowing example.
Athletic Association Suppose 5 percent of the population of Umen, a fictional Third World country, have
(NCAA) reported a disease that is peculiar to that country. We will let A1 refer to the event “has the dis-
that of 150,000 se- ease” and A2 refer to the event “does not have the disease.” Thus, we know that if
nior boys playing on we select a person from Umen at random, the probability the individual chosen has
their high school the disease is .05, or P(A1)  .05. This probability, P(A1)  P(has the disease)  .05,
basketball team, 64 is called the prior probability. It is given this name because the probability is assigned
would make a profes- before any empirical data are obtained.
sional team. To put
it another way, the PRIOR PROBABILITY The initial probability based on the present level of
odds of a high school information.
senior basketball
player making a pro-
fessional team are 1 The prior probability a person is not afflicted with the disease is therefore .95, or
in 2,344. From the P(A2)  .95, found by 1  .05.
same study: There is a diagnostic technique to detect the disease, but it is not very accu-
rate. Let B denote the event “test shows the disease is present.” Assume that his-
1. The odds of a
torical evidence shows that if a person actually has the disease, the probability that
high school senior
the test will indicate the presence of the disease is .90. Using the conditional prob-
basketball player
ability definitions developed earlier in this chapter, this statement is written as:
playing some col-
lege basketball are P(B ƒ A1)  .90
about 1 in 40.
Assume the probability is .15 that for a person who actually does not have the dis-
2. The odds of a ease the test will indicate the disease is present.
high school senior
playing college P(B ƒ A2)  .15
basketball as a Let’s randomly select a person from Umen and perform the test. The test results
senior in college indicate the disease is present. What is the probability the person actually has the
are about 1 in 60. disease? In symbolic form, we want to know P(A1 ƒ B), which is interpreted as: P(has
3. If you play basket- the disease ƒ the test results are positive). The probability P(A1 ƒ B) is called a pos-
ball as a senior in terior probability.
college, the odds
of making a pro-
POSTERIOR PROBABILITY A revised probability based on additional information.
fessional team are
about 1 in 37.5.
With the help of Bayes’ theorem, formula (5–7), we can determine the posterior
probability.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 168

168 Chapter 5

P(A1)P(B ƒ A1)
P(A1 ƒ B) 
P(A1)P(B ƒ A1)  P(A2)P(B ƒ A2)
(.05)(.90) .0450
   .24
(.05)(.90)  (.95)(.15) .1875
So the probability that a person has the disease, given that he or she tested posi-
tive, is .24. How is the result interpreted? If a person is selected at random from
the population, the probability that he or she has the disease is .05. If the person
is tested and the test result is positive, the probability that the person actually has
the disease is increased about fivefold, from .05 to .24.
In the preceding problem, we had only two mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events, A1 and A2. If there are n such events, A1, A2,    , An, Bayes’ the-
orem, formula (5–7), becomes
P(Ai)P(B ƒ Ai)
P(Ai ƒ B) 
P(A1)P(B ƒ A1)  P(A2)P(B ƒ A2)      P(An)P(B ƒ An)
With the preceding notation, the calculations for the Umen problem are sum-
marized in the following table.

Prior Conditional Joint Posterior

Event, Probability, Probability, Probability, Probability,
Ai P(Ai ) P(B ƒ Ai ) P(Ai and B) P(Ai ƒ B)
Disease, A1 .05 .90 .0450 .0450/.1875  .24
No disease, A2 .95 .15 .1425 .1425/.1875  .76
P (B )  .1875 1.00

Another illustration of Bayes’ theorem follows.

Example A manufacturer of DVD players purchases a particular microchip, called

the LS-24, from three suppliers: Hall Electronics, Schuller Sales,
and Crawford Components. Thirty percent of the LS-24
chips are purchased from Hall Electronics, 20 percent
from Schuller Sales, and the remaining 50 percent from
Crawford Components. The manufacturer has exten-
sive histories on the three suppliers and knows that
3 percent of the LS-24 chips from Hall Electronics are
defective, 5 percent of chips from Schuller Sales are
defective, and 4 percent of the chips purchased from
Crawford Components are defective.
When the LS-24 chips arrive at the manufacturer, they
are placed directly in a bin and not inspected or otherwise
identified by supplier. A worker selects a chip for installation
in a DVD player and finds it defective. What is the probability
that it was manufactured by Schuller Sales?

Solution As a first step, let’s summarize some of the information given in the problem statement.
• There are three mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events, that is,
three suppliers.
A1 The LS-24 was purchased from Hall Electronics.
A2 The LS-24 was purchased from Schuller Sales.
A3 The LS-24 was purchased from Crawford Components.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 169

A Survey of Probability Concepts 169

• The prior probabilities are:

P(A1)  .30 The probability the LS-24 was manufactured by Hall Electronics.
P(A2)  .20 The probability the LS-24 was manufactured by Schuller Sales.
P(A3)  .50 The probability the LS-24 was manufactured by Crawford
Components.
• The additional information can be either:
B1 The LS-24 appears defective, or
B2 The LS-24 appears not to be defective.
• The following conditional probabilities are given.
P(B1 ƒ A1)  .03 The probability that an LS-24 chip produced by Hall
Electronics is defective.
P(B1 ƒ A2)  .05 The probability that an LS-24 chip produced by Schuller
Sales is defective.
P(B1 ƒ A3)  .04 The probability that an LS-24 chip produced by Crawford
Components is defective.
• A chip is selected from the bin. Because the chips are not identified by sup-
plier, we are not certain which supplier manufactured the chip. We want to deter-
mine the probability that the defective chip was purchased from Schuller Sales.
The probability is written P(A2 ƒ B1).
Look at Schuller’s quality record. It is the worst of the three suppliers. Now that
we have found a defective LS-24 chip, we suspect that P(A2 ƒ B1) is greater than P(A2).
That is, we expect the revised probability to be greater than .20. But how much
greater? Bayes’ theorem can give us the answer. As a first step, consider the tree
diagram in Chart 5–3.
The events are dependent, so the prior probability in the first branch is multi-
plied by the conditional probability in the second branch to obtain the joint proba-
bility. The joint probability is reported in the last column of Chart 5–3. To construct
the tree diagram of Chart 5–3, we used a time sequence that moved from the sup-
plier to the determination of whether the chip was acceptable or unacceptable.
What we need to do is reverse the time process. That is, instead of moving
from left to right in Chart 5–3, we need to move from right to left. We have a defec-
tive chip, and we want to determine the likelihood that it was purchased from
Schuller Sales. How is that accomplished? We first look at the joint probabilities as
relative frequencies out of 1,000 cases. For example, the likelihood of a defective
LS-24 chip that was produced by Hall Electronics is .009. So of 1,000 cases, we
would expect to find 9 defective chips produced by Hall Electronics. We observe that
in 39 of 1,000 cases the LS-24 chip selected for assembly will be defective, found
by 9  10  20. Of these 39 defective chips, 10 were produced by Schuller Sales.
Thus, the probability that the defective LS-24 chip was purchased from Schuller
Sales is 10/39  .2564. We have now determined the revised probability of P(A2 ƒ B1).
Before we found the defective chip, the likelihood that it was purchased from Schuller
Sales was .20. This likelihood has been increased to .2564.
This information is summarized in the following table.

Prior Conditional Joint Posterior

Event, Probability, Probability, Probability, Probability,
Ai P(Ai ) P (B1 ƒ Ai ) P(Ai and B1) P (Ai ƒ B1)
Hall .30 .03 .009 .009/.039  .2308
Schuller .20 .05 .010 .010/.039  .2564
Crawford .50 .04 .020 .020/.039  .5128
P (B1)  .039 1.0000
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 170

170 Chapter 5

Joint probability
Conditional probability
Prior probability B1 = Defective
P (B1| A1) = .03 P (A1 and B1) = P (A1) P (B1| A1)
= (.30) (.03) = .009

B2 = Good
P (A1 and B2) = P (A1) P (B2| A1)
A1 = Hall P (B2| A1) = .97 = (.30) (.97) = .291
P (A1) = .30
B1 = Defective
P (A2 and B1) = P (A2) P (B1| A2)
A2 = Schuller P (B1| A2) = .05 = (.20) (.05) = .010
P (A2) = .20
B2 = Good
P (A2 and B2) = P (A2) P (B2| A2)
P (B2| A2) = .95 = (.20) (.95) = .190

B1 = Defective
A3 = Crawford P (A3 and B1) = P (A3) P (B1| A3)
P (A3 ) = .50 P (B1| A3) = .04 = (.50) (.04) = .020

B2 = Good
P (A3 and B2 ) = P (A3) P (B2| A3)
P (B2| A3) = .96 = (.50) (.96) = .480

Total 1.000

CHART 5–3 Tree Diagram of DVD Manufacturing Problem

The probability the defective LS-24 chip came from Schuller Sales can be formally
found by using Bayes’ theorem. We compute P(A2 ƒ B1), where A2 refers to Schuller
Sales and B1 to the fact that the selected LS-24 chip was defective.
P(A2)P(B1 ƒ A2)
P(A2 ƒ B1) 
P(A1)P(B1 ƒ A1)  P(A2)P(B1 ƒ A2)  P(A3)(B1 ƒ A3)
(.20)(.05) .010
   .2564
(.30)(.03)  (.20)(.05)  (.50)(.04) .039
This is the same result obtained from Chart 5–3 and from the conditional probability table.

Self-Review 5–9 Refer to the preceding example and solution.

(a) Design a formula to find the probability the part selected came from Crawford Com-
ponents, given that it was a good chip.
(b) Compute the probability using Bayes’ theorem.

Exercises
33. P(A1)  .60, P(A2)  .40, P(B1 @ A1)  .05, and P(B1 @ A2)  .10. Use Bayes’ theorem to deter-
mine P(A1 @ B1).
34. P(A1)  .20, P(A2)  .40, P(A3)  .40, P(B1 0 A1)  .25, P(B1 0 A2)  .05, and P(B1 @ A3)  .10. Use
Bayes’ theorem to determine P(A3 @ B1).
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 171

A Survey of Probability Concepts 171

35. The Ludlow Wildcats baseball team, a minor league team in the Cleveland Indians organi-
zation, plays 70 percent of their games at night and 30 percent during the day. The team
wins 50 percent of their night games and 90 percent of their day games. According to today’s
newspaper, they won yesterday. What is the probability the game was played at night?
36. Dr. Stallter has been teaching basic statistics for many years. She knows that 80 percent
of the students will complete the assigned problems. She has also determined that
among those who do their assignments, 90 percent will pass the course. Among those
students who do not do their homework, 60 percent will pass. Mike Fishbaugh took sta-
tistics last semester from Dr. Stallter and received a passing grade. What is the proba-
bility that he completed the assignments?
37. The credit department of Lion’s Department Store in Anaheim, California, reported that
30 percent of their sales are cash or check, 30 percent are paid with a credit card and
40 percent with a debit card. Twenty percent of the cash or check purchases, 90 per-
cent of the credit card purchases, and 60 percent of the debit card purchases are for more
than $50. Ms. Tina Stevens just purchased a new dress that cost $120. What is the prob-
ability that she paid cash or check?
38. One-fourth of the residents of the Burning Ridge Estates leave their garage doors open when
they are away from home. The local chief of police estimates that 5 percent of the garages
with open doors will have something stolen, but only 1 percent of those closed will have
something stolen. If a garage is robbed, what is the probability the doors were left open?

5.8 Principles of Counting

If the number of possible outcomes in an experiment is small, it is relatively easy to
count them. There are six possible outcomes, for example, resulting from the roll of a
die, namely:

LO9 Determine the If, however, there are a large number of possible outcomes, such as the number of
number of outcomes heads and tails for an experiment with 10 tosses, it would be tedious to count all the
using the appropriate possibilities. They could have all heads, one head and nine tails, two heads and eight
principle of counting. tails, and so on. To facilitate counting, we discuss three formulas: the multiplication
formula (not to be confused with the multiplication rule described earlier in the chap-
ter), the permutation formula, and the combination formula.

The Multiplication Formula

We begin with the multiplication formula.

MULTIPLICATION FORMULA If there are m ways of doing one thing and n ways
of doing another thing, there are m  n ways of doing both.

In terms of a formula:

MULTIPLICATION FORMULA Total number of arrangements  (m)(n) [5–8]

This can be extended to more than two events. For three events m, n, and o:

Total number of arrangements  (m)(n)(o)

Example An automobile dealer wants to advertise that for $29,999 you can buy a convertible,
a two-door sedan, or a four-door model with your choice of either wire wheel covers
or solid wheel covers. How many different arrangements of models and wheel cov-
ers can the dealer offer?

Solution Of course the dealer could determine the total number of arrangements by picturing
and counting them. There are six.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 172

172 Chapter 5

Convertible with Convertible with

wire wheels solid wheels

Two-door with Two-door with

wire wheels solid wheels

Four-door with Four-door with

wire wheels solid wheels

We can employ the multiplication formula as a check (where m is the number

of models and n the wheel cover type). From formula (5–8):
Total possible arrangements  (m)(n)  (3)(2)  6

It was not difficult to count all the possible model and wheel cover combinations
in this example. Suppose, however, that the dealer decided to offer eight models and
six types of wheel covers. It would be tedious to picture and count all the possible
alternatives. Instead, the multiplication formula can be used. In this case, there are
(m)(n)  (8)(6)  48 possible arrangements.
Note in the preceding applications of the multiplication formula that there were
two or more groupings from which you made selections. The automobile dealer, for
example, offered a choice of models and a choice of wheel covers. If a home builder
offered you four different exterior styles of a home to choose from and three inte-
rior floor plans, the multiplication formula would be used to find how many differ-
ent arrangements were possible. There are 12 possibilities.

Self-Review 5–10 1. The Women’s Shopping Network on cable TV offers sweaters and slacks for women.
The sweaters and slacks are offered in coordinating colors. If sweaters are available
in five colors and the slacks are available in four colors, how many different outfits
can be advertised?
2. Pioneer manufactures three models of stereo receivers, two MP3 docking stations, four
speakers, and three CD carousels. When the four types of components are sold together,
they form a “system.” How many different systems can the electronics firm offer?

The Permutation Formula

As noted, the multiplication formula is applied to find the number of possible
arrangements for two or more groups. The permutation formula is applied to find
the possible number of arrangements when there is only one group of objects. Illus-
trations of this type of problem are:
• Three electronic parts are to be assembled into a plug-in unit for a television
set. The parts can be assembled in any order. How many different ways can
the three parts be assembled?
• A machine operator must make four safety checks before starting his machine.
It does not matter in which order the checks are made. In how many different
ways can the operator make the checks?
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 173

A Survey of Probability Concepts 173

One order for the first illustration might be: the transistor first, the LEDs second,
and the synthesizer third. This arrangement is called a permutation.

PERMUTATION Any arrangement of r objects selected from a single group of n

possible objects.

Note that the arrangements a b c and b a c are different permutations. The formula
to count the total number of different permutations is:

n!
PERMUTATION FORMULA Pr  [5–9]
n
(n  r)!

where:
n is the total number of objects.
r is the number of objects selected.
Before we solve the two problems illustrated, note that permutations and combi-
nations (to be discussed shortly) use a notation called n factorial. It is written n! and
means the product of n(n  1)(n  2)(n  3) p (1). For instance, 5!  5 # 4 # 3 # 2 #
1  120.
Many of your calculators have a button with x! that will perform this calculation
for you. It will save you a great deal of time. For example the Texas Instrument
TI-36X calculator has the following key: x !
10x
LOG

It is the “third function” so check your users’ manual or the Internet for instructions.
The factorial notation can also be canceled when the same number appears in
both the numerator and the denominator, as shown below.
6!3! 6 # 5 # 4 # 3 # 2 # 1(3 # 2 # 1)
  180
4! 4#3#2#1
By definition, zero factorial, written 0!, is 1. That is, 0!  1.

Example Referring to the group of three electronic parts that are to be assembled in any
order, in how many different ways can they be assembled?

Solution There are three electronic parts to be assembled, so n  3. Because all three are
to be inserted in the plug-in unit, r  3. Solving using formula (5–9) gives:
n! 3! 3! 3!
Pr     6
n
(n  r)! (3  3)! 0! 1
We can check the number of permutations arrived at by using the permutation
formula. We determine how many “spaces” have to be filled and the possibilities for
each “space.” In the problem involving three electronic parts, there are three loca-
tions in the plug-in unit for the three parts. There are three possibilities for the first
place, two for the second (one has been used up), and one for the third, as follows:
(3)(2)(1)  6 permutations
The six ways in which the three electronic parts, lettered A, B, C, can be arranged are:

ABC BAC CAB ACB BCA CBA

Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 174

174 Chapter 5

In the previous example, we selected and arranged all the objects, that is n  r. In
many cases, only some objects are selected and arranged from the n possible
objects. We explain the details of this application in the following example.

Example Betts Machine Shop Inc. has eight screw machines but only three spaces avail-
able in the production area for the machines. In how many different ways can the
eight machines be arranged in the three spaces available?

Solution There are eight possibilities for the first available space in the production area, seven
for the second space (one has been used up), and six for the third space. Thus:
(8)(7)(6)  336,
that is, there are a total of 336 different possible arrangements. This could also be
found by using formula (5–9). If n  8 machines, and r  3 spaces available, the
formula leads to
n! 8! 8! (8)(7)(6)5!
Pr      336
n
(n  r)! (8  3)! 5! 5!

The Combination Formula

If the order of the selected objects is not important, any selection is called a combi-
nation. The formula to count the number of r object combinations from a set of n
objects is:

n!
COMBINATION FORMULA Cr  [5–10]
n
r!(n  r)!

For example, if executives Able, Baker, and Chauncy are to be chosen as a com-
mittee to negotiate a merger, there is only one possible combination of these three;
the committee of Able, Baker, and Chauncy is the same as the committee of Baker,
Chauncy, and Able. Using the combination formula:

n! 3#2#1
Cr   1
n
r!(n  r)! 3 # 2 # 1(1)

Example The marketing department has been given the assignment of designing color codes
for the 42 different lines of compact disks sold by Goody Records. Three colors are
to be used on each CD, but a combination of three colors used for one CD cannot
be rearranged and used to identify a different CD. This means that if green, yellow,
and violet were used to identify one line, then yellow, green, and violet (or any other
combination of these three colors) cannot be used to identify another line. Would
seven colors taken three at a time be adequate to color-code the 42 lines?

Solution According to formula (5–10), there are 35 combinations, found by

n! 7! 7!
C3     35
7
r!(n  r)! 3!(7  3)! 3!4!
The seven colors taken three at a time (i.e., three colors to a line) would not be ade-
quate to color-code the 42 different lines because they would provide only 35 com-
binations. Eight colors taken three at a time would give 56 different combinations.
This would be more than adequate to color-code the 42 different lines.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 175

A Survey of Probability Concepts 175

When the number of permutations or combinations is large, the calculations are

tedious. Computer software and handheld calculators have “functions” to compute
these numbers. The Excel output for the location of the eight screw machines in
the production area of Betts Machine Shop Inc. is shown below. There are a total
of 336 arrangements.

Below is the output for the color codes at Goody Records. Three colors are
chosen from among seven possible. The number of combinations possible is 35.

Self-Review 5–11 1. A musician wants to write a score based on only five chords: B-flat, C, D, E, and G.
However, only three chords out of the five will be used in succession, such as C, B-flat,
and E. Repetitions, such as B-flat, B-flat, and E, will not be permitted.
(a) How many permutations of the five chords, taken three at a time, are possible?
(b) Using formula (5–9), how many permutations are possible?
2. The 10 numbers 0 through 9 are to be used in code groups of four to identify an item
of clothing. Code 1083 might identify a blue blouse, size medium; the code group 2031
might identify a pair of pants, size 18; and so on. Repetitions of numbers are not per-
mitted. That is, the same number cannot be used twice (or more) in a total sequence.
For example, 2256, 2562, or 5559 would not be permitted. How many different code
groups can be designed?
3. In the above example involving Goody Records, we said that eight colors taken three
at a time would give 56 different combinations.
(a) Use formula (5–10) to show this is true.
(b) As an alternative plan for color-coding the 42 different lines, it has been suggested
that only two colors be placed on a disk. Would 10 colors be adequate to color-code
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 176

176 Chapter 5

the 42 different lines? (Again, a combination of two colors could be used only once—
that is, if pink and blue were coded for one line, blue and pink could not be used to
identify a different line.)
4. In a lottery game, three numbers are randomly selected from a tumbler of balls num-
bered 1 through 50.
(a) How many permutations are possible?
(b) How many combinations are possible?

Exercises
39. Solve the following:
a. 40!/35!
b. 7 P4
c. 5 C2
40. Solve the following:
a. 20!/17!
b. 9 P3
c. 7 C2
41. A pollster randomly selected 4 of 10 available people. How many different groups of 4
are possible?
42. A telephone number consists of seven digits, the first three representing the exchange.
How many different telephone numbers are possible within the 537 exchange?
43. An overnight express company must include five cities on its route. How many different
routes are possible, assuming that it does not matter in which order the cities are included
in the routing?
44. A representative of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) wants to select samples
from 10 landfills. The director has 15 landfills from which she can collect samples. How
many different samples are possible?
45. A national pollster has developed 15 questions designed to rate the performance of the
president of the United States. The pollster will select 10 of these questions. How many
different arrangements are there for the order of the 10 selected questions?
46. A company is creating three new divisions and seven managers are eligible to be
appointed head of a division. How many different ways could the three new heads be
appointed? Hint: Assume the division assignment makes a difference.

Chapter Summary
I. A probability is a value between 0 and 1 inclusive that represents the likelihood a
particular event will happen.
A. An experiment is the observation of some activity or the act of taking some
measurement.
B. An outcome is a particular result of an experiment.
C. An event is the collection of one or more outcomes of an experiment.
II. There are three definitions of probability.
A. The classical definition applies when there are n equally likely outcomes to an
experiment.
B. The empirical definition occurs when the number of times an event happens is divided
by the number of observations.
C. A subjective probability is based on whatever information is available.
III. Two events are mutually exclusive if by virtue of one event happening the other cannot
happen.
IV. Events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not affect the occurrence of
another event.
V. The rules of addition refer to the union of events.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 177

A Survey of Probability Concepts 177

A. The special rule of addition is used when events are mutually exclusive.

P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B) [5–2]

B. The general rule of addition is used when the events are not mutually exclusive.

P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B) [5–4]

C. The complement rule is used to determine the probability of an event happening by

Statistics in Action subtracting the probability of the event not happening from 1.
Government statistics
P(A)  1  P(⬃A) [5–3]
show there are about
1.7 automobile- VI. The rules of multiplication refer to the product of events.
caused fatalities for A. The special rule of multiplication refers to events that are independent.
every 100,000,000
vehicle-miles. If you
P(A and B)  P(A)P(B) [5–5]
drive 1 mile to the B. The general rule of multiplication refers to events that are not independent.
store to buy your lot-
tery ticket and then P(A and B)  P(A)P(B @ A) [5–6]
return home, you
have driven 2 miles. C. A joint probability is the likelihood that two or more events will happen at the same
time.
Thus the probability
D. A conditional probability is the likelihood that an event will happen, given that another
that you will join this
event has already happened.
statistical group on E. Bayes’ theorem is a method of revising a probability, given that additional information
your next 2 mile is obtained. For two mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive events:
round trip is 2  1.7/
100,000,000  P(A1)P(B ƒ A1)
P(A1 ƒ B)  [5–7]
0.000000034. This P(A1)P(B ƒ A1)  P(A2)P(B ƒ A2)
can also be stated as
“One in 29,411,765.” VII. There are three counting rules that are useful in determining the number of outcomes in
an experiment.
Thus if you drive to
A. The multiplication rule states that if there are m ways one event can happen and n ways
the store to buy your
another event can happen, then there are mn ways the two events can happen.
Powerball ticket, your
chance of being killed Number of arrangements  (m)(n) [5–8]
(or killing someone
else) is more than B. A permutation is an arrangement in which the order of the objects selected from a
4 times greater than specific pool of objects is important.
the chance that you n!
will win the Powerball Pr  [5–9]
n
(n  r)!
Jackpot, one chance
in 120,526,770. C. A combination is an arrangement where the order of the objects selected from a spe-
[Link] cific pool of objects is not important.
[Link]/
n!
Powerball [Link] Cr  [5–10]
n
r!(n  r)!

Pronunciation Key
SYMBOL MEANING PRONUNCIATION
P(A) Probability of A P of A
P(⬃A) Probability of not A P of not A
P(A and B) Probability of A and B P of A and B
P(A or B) Probability of A or B P of A or B
P(A @ B) Probability of A given B has happened P of A given B
P
n r
Permutation of n items selected r at a time Pnr
n
Cr Combination of n items selected r at a time Cnr
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 178

178 Chapter 5

Chapter Exercises
47. The marketing research department at Pepsico plans to survey teenagers about a newly
developed soft drink. Each will be asked to compare it with his or her favorite soft drink.
a. What is the experiment?
b. What is one possible event?
48. The number of times a particular event occurred in the past is divided by the number of
occurrences. What is this approach to probability called?
49. The probability that the cause and the cure for all cancers will be discovered before the
year 2020 is .20. What viewpoint of probability does this statement illustrate?
50. Berdine’s Chicken Factory has several stores in the Hilton Head, South Carolina, area. When
interviewing applicants for server positions, the owner would like to include information on
the amount of tip a server can expect to earn per check (or bill). A study of 500 recent
checks indicated the server earned the following amounts in tips per 8-hour shift.

Amount of Tip Number

$0 up to $ 20 200
20 up to 50 100
50 up to 100 75
100 up to 200 75
200 or more 50
Total 500

a. What is the probability of a tip of $200 or more?

b. Are the categories “$0 up to $20,” “$20 up to $50,” and so on considered mutually
exclusive?
c. If the probabilities associated with each outcome were totaled, what would that total be?
d. What is the probability of a tip of up to $50?
e. What is the probability of a tip of less than $200?
51. Winning all three “Triple Crown” races is considered the greatest feat of a pedigree race-
horse. After a successful Kentucky Derby, Big Brown is a 1 to 2 favorite to win the Preak-
ness Stakes.
a. If he is a 1 to 2 favorite to win the Belmont Stakes as well, what is his probability of
winning the Triple Crown?
b. What do his chances for the Preakness Stakes have to be in order for him to be “even
money” to earn the Triple Crown?
52. The first card selected from a standard 52-card deck is a king.
a. If it is returned to the deck, what is the probability that a king will be drawn on the
second selection?
b. If the king is not replaced, what is the probability that a king will be drawn on the
second selection?
c. What is the probability that a king will be selected on the first draw from the deck
and another king on the second draw (assuming that the first king was not replaced)?
53. Armco, a manufacturer of traffic light systems, found that under accelerated-life tests, 95
percent of the newly developed systems lasted 3 years before failing to change signals
properly.
a. If a city purchased four of these systems, what is the probability all four systems would
operate properly for at least 3 years?
b. Which rule of probability does this illustrate?
c. Using letters to represent the four systems, write an equation to show how you arrived
at the answer to part (a).
54. Refer to the following picture.

⬃B
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 179

A Survey of Probability Concepts 179

a. What is the picture called?

b. What rule of probability is illustrated?
c. B represents the event of choosing a family that receives welfare payments. What
does P(B)  P(⬃B) equal?
55. In a management trainee program at Claremont Enterprises, 80 percent of the trainees
are female and 20 percent male. Ninety percent of the females attended college, and
78 percent of the males attended college.
a. A management trainee is selected at random. What is the probability that the person
selected is a female who did not attend college?
b. Are gender and attending college independent? Why?
c. Construct a tree diagram showing all the probabilities, conditional probabilities, and
joint probabilities.
d. Do the joint probabilities total 1.00? Why?
56. Assume the likelihood that any flight on Delta Airlines arrives within 15 minutes of the
scheduled time is .90. We select four flights from yesterday for study.
a. What is the likelihood all four of the selected flights arrived within 15 minutes of the
scheduled time?
b. What is the likelihood that none of the selected flights arrived within 15 minutes of
the scheduled time?
c. What is the likelihood at least one of the selected flights did not arrive within 15 min-
utes of the scheduled time?
57. There are 100 employees at Kiddie Carts International. Fifty-seven of the employees are
production workers, 40 are supervisors, 2 are secretaries, and the remaining employee
is the president. Suppose an employee is selected:
a. What is the probability the selected employee is a production worker?
b. What is the probability the selected employee is either a production worker or a supervisor?
c. Refer to part (b). Are these events mutually exclusive?
d. What is the probability the selected employee is neither a production worker nor a
supervisor?
58. Joe Mauer of the Minnesota Twins had the highest batting average in the 2009 Major
League Baseball season. His average was .365. So assume the probability of getting a
hit is .365 for each time he batted. In a particular game, assume he batted three times.
a. This is an example of what type of probability?
b. What is the probability of getting three hits in a particular game?
c. What is the probability of not getting any hits in a game?
d. What is the probability of getting at least one hit?
59. Four sports teams remain in a single-elimination playoff competition. If one team is
favored in its semi-final match by odds of 2 to 1 and another squad is favored in its con-
test by odds of 3 to 1. What is the probability that:
a. Both favored teams win their games?
b. Neither favored team wins its game?
c. At least one of the favored teams wins its game?
60. There are three clues labeled “daily double” on the game show Jeopardy. If three equally
matched contenders play, what is the probability that:
a. A single contestant finds all three “daily doubles”?
b. The returning champion gets all three of the “daily doubles”?
c. Each of the players selects precisely one of the “daily doubles”?
61. Brooks Insurance Inc. wishes to offer life insurance to men age 60 via the Internet.
Mortality tables indicate the likelihood of a 60-year-old man surviving another year is .98.
If the policy is offered to five men age 60:
a. What is the probability all five men survive the year?
b. What is the probability at least one does not survive?
62. Forty percent of the homes constructed in the Quail Creek area include a security sys-
tem. Three homes are selected at random:
a. What is the probability all three of the selected homes have a security system?
b. What is the probability none of the three selected homes have a security system?
c. What is the probability at least one of the selected homes has a security system?
d. Did you assume the events to be dependent or independent?
63. Refer to Exercise 62, but assume there are 10 homes in the Quail Creek area and 4 of
them have a security system. Three homes are selected at random:
a. What is the probability all three of the selected homes have a security system?
b. What is the probability none of the three selected homes have a security system?
c. What is the probability at least one of the selected homes has a security system?
d. Did you assume the events to be dependent or independent?
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 180

180 Chapter 5

64. There are 20 families living in the Willbrook Farms Development. Of these families, 10 pre-
pared their own federal income taxes for last year, 7 had their taxes prepared by a local
professional, and the remaining 3 by H&R Block.
a. What is the probability of selecting a family that prepared their own taxes?
b. What is the probability of selecting two families, both of which prepared their own taxes?
c. What is the probability of selecting three families, all of which prepared their own taxes?
d. What is the probability of selecting two families, neither of which had their taxes pre-
pared by H&R Block?
65. The board of directors of Saner Automatic Door Company consists of 12 members, 3 of
whom are women. A new policy and procedures manual is to be written for the com-
pany. A committee of 3 is randomly selected from the board to do the writing.
a. What is the probability that all members of the committee are men?
b. What is the probability that at least 1 member of the committee is a woman?
66. A recent survey reported in BusinessWeek dealt with the salaries of CEOs at large cor-
porations and whether company shareholders made money or lost money.

CEO Paid More CEO Paid Less

Than $1 Million Than $1 Million Total
Shareholders made money 2 11 13
Shareholders lost money 4 3 7
Total 6 14 20

If a company is randomly selected from the list of 20 studied, what is the probability:
a. The CEO made more than $1 million?
b. The CEO made more than $1 million or the shareholders lost money?
c. The CEO made more than $1 million given the shareholders lost money?
d. Of selecting 2 CEOs and finding they both made more than $1 million?
67. Althoff and Roll, an investment firm in Augusta, Georgia, advertises extensively in the
Augusta Morning Gazette, the newspaper serving the region. The Gazette marketing staff
estimates that 60 percent of Althoff and Roll’s potential market read the newspaper. It is
further estimated that 85 percent of those who read the Gazette remember the Althoff
and Roll advertisement.
a. What percent of the investment firm’s potential market sees and remembers the
advertisement?
b. What percent of the investment firm’s potential market sees, but does not remember
the advertisement?
68. An Internet company located in Southern California has season tickets to the Los Angeles
Lakers basketball games. The company president always invites one of the four vice pres-
idents to attend games with him, and claims he selects the person to attend at random.
One of the four vice presidents has not been invited to attend any of the last five Lakers
home games. What is the likelihood this could be due to chance?
69. A computer-supply retailer purchased a batch of 1,000 CD-R disks and attempted to for-
mat them for a particular application. There were 857 perfect CDs, 112 CDs were usable
but had bad sectors, and the remainder could not be used at all.
a. What is the probability a randomly chosen CD is not perfect?
b. If the disk is not perfect, what is the probability it cannot be used at all?
70. An investor purchased 100 shares of Fifth Third Bank stock and 100 shares of Santee
Electric Cooperative stock. The probability the bank stock will appreciate over a year is .70.
The probability the electric utility will increase over the same period is .60.
a. What is the probability both stocks appreciate during the period?
b. What is the probability the bank stock appreciates but the utility does not?
c. What is the probability at least one of the stocks appreciates?
71. Flashner Marketing Research Inc. specializes in providing assessments of the prospects for
women’s apparel shops in shopping malls. Al Flashner, president, reports that he assesses
the prospects as good, fair, or poor. Records from previous assessments show that 60 per-
cent of the time the prospects were rated as good, 30 percent of the time fair, and 10 per-
cent of the time poor. Of those rated good, 80 percent made a profit the first year; of those
rated fair, 60 percent made a profit the first year; and of those rated poor, 20 percent
made a profit the first year. Connie’s Apparel was one of Flashner’s clients. Connie’s Apparel
made a profit last year. What is the probability that it was given an original rating of poor?
72. Two boxes of men’s Old Navy shirts were received from the factory. Box 1 contained 25
mesh polo shirts and 15 Super-T shirts. Box 2 contained 30 mesh polo shirts and 10
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 181

A Survey of Probability Concepts 181

Super-T shirts. One of the boxes was selected at random, and a shirt was chosen at ran-
dom from that box to be inspected. The shirt was a mesh polo shirt. Given this infor-
mation, what is the probability that the mesh polo shirt came from box 1?
73. With each purchase of a large pizza at Tony’s Pizza, the customer receives a coupon that
can be scratched to see if a prize will be awarded. The odds of winning a free soft drink
are 1 in 10, and the odds of winning a free large pizza are 1 in 50. You plan to eat lunch
tomorrow at Tony’s. What is the probability:
a. That you will win either a large pizza or a soft drink?
b. That you will not win a prize?
c. That you will not win a prize on three consecutive visits to Tony’s?
d. That you will win at least one prize on one of your next three visits to Tony’s?
74. For the daily lottery game in Illinois, participants select three numbers between 0 and 9.
A number cannot be selected more than once, so a winning ticket could be, say, 307
but not 337. Purchasing one ticket allows you to select one set of numbers. The winning
numbers are announced on TV each night.
a. How many different outcomes (three-digit numbers) are possible?
b. If you purchase a ticket for the game tonight, what is the likelihood you will win?
c. Suppose you purchase three tickets for tonight’s drawing and select a different number
for each ticket. What is the probability that you will not win with any of the tickets?
75. Several years ago, Wendy’s Hamburgers advertised that there are 256 different ways to
order your hamburger. You may choose to have, or omit, any combination of the follow-
ing on your hamburger: mustard, ketchup, onion, pickle, tomato, relish, mayonnaise, and
lettuce. Is the advertisement correct? Show how you arrive at your answer.
76. It was found that 60 percent of the tourists to China visited the Forbidden City, the Tem-
ple of Heaven, the Great Wall, and other historical sites in or near Beijing. Forty percent
visited Xi’an with its magnificent terracotta soldiers, horses, and chariots, which lay buried
for over 2,000 years. Thirty percent of the tourists went to both Beijing and Xi’an. What
is the probability that a tourist visited at least one of these places?
77. A new chewing gum has been developed that is helpful to those who want to stop smok-
ing. If 60 percent of those people chewing the gum are successful in stopping smoking, what
is the probability that in a group of four smokers using the gum at least one quits smoking?
78. Reynolds Construction Company has agreed not to erect all “look-alike” homes in a new
subdivision. Five exterior designs are offered to potential home buyers. The builder has stan-
dardized three interior plans that can be incorporated in any of the five exteriors. How many
different ways can the exterior and interior plans be offered to potential home buyers?
79. A new sports car model has defective brakes 15 percent of the time and a defective
steering mechanism 5 percent of the time. Let’s assume (and hope) that these problems
occur independently. If one or the other of these problems is present, the car is called a
“lemon.” If both of these problems are present, the car is a “hazard.” Your instructor pur-
chased one of these cars yesterday. What is the probability it is:
a. A lemon?
b. A hazard?
80. The state of Maryland has license plates with three numbers followed by three letters.
How many different license plates are possible?
81. There are four people being considered for the position of chief executive officer of Dalton
Enterprises. Three of the applicants are over 60 years of age. Two are female, of which
only one is over 60.
a. What is the probability that a candidate is over 60 and female?
b. Given that the candidate is male, what is the probability he is less than 60?
c. Given that the person is over 60, what is the probability the person is female?
82. Tim Bleckie is the owner of Bleckie Investment and Real Estate Company. The company
recently purchased four tracts of land in Holly Farms Estates and six tracts in Newburg
Woods. The tracts are all equally desirable and sell for about the same amount.
a. What is the probability that the next two tracts sold will be in Newburg Woods?
b. What is the probability that of the next four sold at least one will be in Holly Farms?
c. Are these events independent or dependent?
83. A computer password consists of four characters. The characters can be one of the 26
letters of the alphabet. Each character may be used more than once. How many differ-
ent passwords are possible?
84. A case of 24 cans contains 1 can that is contaminated. Three cans are to be chosen
randomly for testing.
a. How many different combinations of 3 cans could be selected?
b. What is the probability that the contaminated can is selected for testing?
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 182

182 Chapter 5

85. A puzzle in the newspaper presents a matching problem. The names of 10 U.S. presi-
dents are listed in one column, and their vice presidents are listed in random order in
the second column. The puzzle asks the reader to match each president with his vice
president. If you make the matches randomly, how many matches are possible? What is
the probability all 10 of your matches are correct?
86. Two components, A and B, operate in series. Being in series means that for the system to
operate, both components A and B must work. Assume the two components are indepen-
dent. What is the probability the system works under these conditions? The probability A
works is .90 and the probability B functions is also .90.
87. Horwege Electronics Inc. purchases TV picture tubes from four different suppliers. Tyson
Wholesale supplies 20 percent of the tubes, Fuji Importers 30 percent, Kirkpatricks 25 per-
cent, and Parts Inc. 25 percent. Tyson Wholesale tends to have the best quality, as only
3 percent of its tubes arrive defective. Fuji Importers’ tubes are 4 percent defective,
Kirkpatricks’ 7 percent, and Parts Inc. are 6.5 percent defective.
a. What is the overall percent defective?
b. A defective picture tube was discovered in the latest shipment. What is the probabil-
ity that it came from Tyson Wholesale?
88. ABC Auto Insurance classifies drivers as good, medium, or poor risks. Drivers who apply
to them for insurance fall into these three groups in the proportions 30 percent, 50 per-
cent, and 20 percent, respectively. The probability a “good” driver will have an accident
is .01, the probability a “medium” risk driver will have an accident is .03, and the prob-
ability a “poor” driver will have an accident is .10. The company sells Mr. Brophy an insur-
ance policy and he has an accident. What is the probability Mr. Brophy is:
a. A “good” driver?
b. A “medium” risk driver?
c. A “poor” driver?
89. You take a trip by air that involves three independent flights. If there is an 80 percent
chance each specific leg of the trip is done on time, what is the probability all three flights
arrive on time?
90. The probability a HP network server is down is .05. If you have three independent servers,
what is the probability that at least one of them is operational?
91. Twenty-two percent of all liquid crystal displays (LCDs) are manufactured by Samsung.
What is the probability that in a collection of three independent LCD purchases, at least
one is a Samsung?

Data Set Exercises

92. Refer to the Real Estate data, which reports information on homes sold in the Goodyear,
Arizona, area during the last year.
a. Sort the data into a table that shows the number of homes that have a pool versus
the number that don’t have a pool in each of the five townships. If a home is selected
at random, compute the following probabilities.
1. The home is in Township 1 or has a pool.
2. Given that it is in Township 3, that it has a pool.
3. The home has a pool and is in Township 3.
b. Sort the data into a table that shows the number of homes that have a garage
attached versus those that don’t in each of the five townships. If a home is selected
at random, compute the following probabilities:
1. The home has a garage attached.
2. The home does not have a garage attached, given that it is in Township 5.
3. The home has a garage attached and is in Township 3.
4. The home does not have a garage attached or is in Township 2.
93. Refer to the Baseball 2009 data, which reports information on the 30 Major League Base-
ball teams for the 2009 season. Set up three variables:
• Divide the teams into two groups, those that had a winning season and those that
did not. That is, create a variable to count the teams that won 81 games or more, and
those that won 80 or less.
• Create a new variable for attendance, using three categories: attendance less than 2.0 mil-
lion, attendance of 2.0 million up to 3.0 million, and attendance of 3.0 million or more.
• Create a variable that shows the teams that play in a stadium less than 15 years old
versus one that is 15 years old or more.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 183

A Survey of Probability Concepts 183

Answer the following questions.

a. Create a table that shows the number of teams with a winning season versus those
with a losing season by the three categories of attendance. If a team is selected at
random, compute the following probabilities:
1. The team had a winning season.
2. The team had a winning season or attendance of more than 3.0 million.
3. The team had a winning season given attendance was more than 3.0 million.
4. The team has a winning season and attracted fewer than 2.0 million fans.
b. Create a table that shows the number of teams with a winning season versus those
that play in new or old stadiums. If a team is selected at random, compute the fol-
lowing probabilities:
1. Selecting a team with a winning season.
2. The likelihood of selecting a team with a winning record and playing in a new stadium.
3. The team had a winning record or played in a new stadium.
94. Refer to the data on the school buses in the Buena School District. Set up a variable
that divides the age of the buses into three groups: new (less than 5 year old), medium
(5 but less than 10 years), and old (10 or more years). The median maintenance cost is
$456. Based on this value, create a variable for those less than the median (low mainte-
nance) and those more than the median (high maintenance). Finally, develop a table to
show the relationship between maintenance cost and age of the bus.
a. What percentage of the buses are new?
b. What percentage of the new buses have low maintenance?
c. What percentage of the old buses have high maintenance?
d. Does maintenance cost seem to be related to the age of the bus? Hint: Compare the
maintenance cost of the old buses with the cost of the new buses? Would you con-
clude maintenance cost is independent of the age?

Software Commands
1. The Excel Commands to determine the number of a. Click on the Formulas tab in the top menu, then,
permutations shown on page 175 are: on the far left, select Insert Function fx.

b. In the Insert Function box, select Statistical as

the category, then scroll down to PERMUT in
the Select a function list. Click OK.
c. In the PERM box after Number, enter 8 and in
the Number_chosen box enter 3. The correct
answer of 336 appears twice in the box.
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 184

184 Chapter 5

2. The Excel Commands to determine the number of a. Click on the Formulas tab in the top menu, then,
combinations shown on page 175 are: on the far left, select Insert Function fx.

b. In the Insert Function box, select Math & Trig

as the category, then scroll down to COMBIN in
the Select a function list. Click OK.
c. In the COMBIN box after Number, enter 7 and
in the Number_chosen box enter 3. The correct
answer of 35 appears twice in the box.

Chapter 5 Answers to Self-Review

5–1 a. Count the number who think the new game is (50  68)
playable. 5–3 a. i.  .059
2,000
b. Seventy-three players found the game playable. 302
Many other answers are possible. ii. 1   .849
2,000
c. No. Probability cannot be greater than 1. The
probability that the game, if put on the market, b.
will be successful is 65/80, or .8125.
d. Cannot be less than 0. Perhaps a mistake in
arithmetic.
B E
e. More than half of the players testing the game
liked it. (Of course, other answers are possible.)
4 queens in deck 4
5–2 1.   .0769
52 cards total 52
Classical.
182
2.  .338 Empirical.
539
3. The author’s view when writing the text of the
chance that the DJIA will climb to 12,000 is .25.
D
You may be more optimistic or less optimistic.
Subjective.
⬃D
Lin01803_ch05_144-[Link] 10/16/10 10:16 AM Page 185

A Survey of Probability Concepts 185

c. They are not complementary, but are mutually b. Joint probabilities

exclusive. 60 /
90 .31
5–4 a. Need for corrective shoes is event A. Need for
major dental work is event B. Often
25/
90
P(A or B)  P(A)  P(B)  P(A and B) 90/ .13
 .08  .15  .03 195
Occasional
Visits
 .20
yes 5/
90
b. One possibility is: .03
Never
Enclosed 20/ .10
105
no Often
105/
B Both A 195 35/
105
.15 .03 .08 .18
Visits Occasional
50/
105
.25
Never
5–5 (.95)(.95)(.95)(.95)  .8145
5–6 a. .002, found by:
P(A3)P(B2 ƒ A3)
5–9 a. P(A3 ƒ B2) 
a ba ba ba b 
4 3 2 1 24 P(A1)P(B2 ƒ A1)  P(A2)P(B2 ƒ A2)  P(A3)P(B2 ƒ A3)
 .002
12 11 10 9 11,880 (.50)(.96)
b. 
(.30)(.97)  (.20)(.95)  (.50)(.96)
b. .14, found by:
.480
  .499
a ba ba ba b 
8 7 6 5 1,680 .961
 .1414
12 11 10 9 11,880
5–10 1. (5)(4)  20
c. No, because there are other possibilities, such 2. (3)(2)(4)(3)  72
as three women and one man.
5–11 1. a. 60, found by (5)(4)(3).
105 b. 60, found by:
5–7 a. P(B4)   .525
200
5! 5#4#3#2#1

b. P(A2 @ B4) 
30 (5  3)! 2#1
 .286
105
2. 5,040, found by:
80 105 30 155
c. P(A2 or B4)      .775 10! 10 # 9 # 8 # 7 # 6 # 5 # 4 # 3 # 2 # 1
200 200 200 200 
(10  4)! 6#5#4#3#2#1
5–8 a. Independence requires that P(A @ B)  P(A). One
possibility is: 3. a. 56 is correct, found by:

P(visit often @ yes enclosed mall)  C3 

n!

8!
 56
P(visit often)
8
r!(n  r)! 3!(8  3)!

Does 60/90  80/195? No, the two variables b. Yes. There are 45 combinations, found by:
are not independent.
n! 10!
Therefore, any joint probability in the table C2    45
10
r!(n  r)! 2!(10  2)!
must be computed by using the general rule
of multiplication. 50!
4. a. P   117,600
50 3
(50  3)!
50!
b. C3   19,600
50
3! (50  3)!