Scribd
Upload
73 views1 page

Earthquake Early Warning: Pros & Cons

An earthquake early warning (EEW) system provides advance warning of impending strong shaking from an earthquake before it arrives. Japan has had a nationwide EEW system since 2007 that can provide forecasts within 5 seconds of an earthquake's detection. The forecasts improve in accuracy as more ground motion data is analyzed. For EEW systems to be effective requires dense seismic instrumentation, understanding of geology, and rapid data transmission. EEW systems have proven benefits for preparing for shaking and tsunami warnings, as shown by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan. The USGS is working to develop EEW algorithms and testing in California, with a fully operational system on the west coast estimated to be possible within 10 years.

Uploaded by

Mark Henri
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
73 views1 page

Earthquake Early Warning: Pros & Cons

An earthquake early warning (EEW) system provides advance warning of impending strong shaking from an earthquake before it arrives. Japan has had a nationwide EEW system since 2007 that can provide forecasts within 5 seconds of an earthquake's detection. The forecasts improve in accuracy as more ground motion data is analyzed. For EEW systems to be effective requires dense seismic instrumentation, understanding of geology, and rapid data transmission. EEW systems have proven benefits for preparing for shaking and tsunami warnings, as shown by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake in Japan. The USGS is working to develop EEW algorithms and testing in California, with a fully operational system on the west coast estimated to be possible within 10 years.

Uploaded by

Mark Henri
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd

Pros and cons of earthquake early warning – a quick review

An earthquake early warning (EEW) system provides advance warning of strong shaking
after an earthquake has been detected but before the strongest shaking arrives. Japan has
had a nationwide public warning system since 2007. It can begin reporting forecasts of
impending shaking within about 5 seconds of detection at the nearest seismic station.
Forecasts begin as underestimates and evolve for as long as the earthquake continues to
grow. The forecasts gain accuracy as more of the ground motions are analyzed.
EEW systems gain power from dense instrumentation in the earthquake source region,
accurate and flexible source characterization, a good understanding of the shallow
geology for accurate prognostication of the seismic waves, and need rapid and reliable
data transmission and computer algorithms.
The EEW system must be connected with users of the warning ahead of time, and
therefore require a public outreach effort upon implementation to make people aware of
the system and how to respond to it.
The recent M9 Tohoku-oki earthquake provided clear evidence of strong benefits of
EEW for both preparing for shaking and very quick warning of tsunami risk.
EEW systems are now either operational or are being implemented in several other
countries. In the US, the USGS is currently supporting the development of algorithms
and tests in California.
In our opinion, high-performance EEW for the US west coast is at most 10 years away,
and once it is here, no one will dispute its value for the dollar. The sooner it is
implemented, the sooner we can reassure the people and corporations that we are taking
the necessary steps to earthquake-proof the region.
Key EEW advantages
(1) Many of the myriad tactical uses of EEW - stopping surgery, trains, airport take-offs
and landing, closing vulnerable bridges, opening critical doors, warning school kids, and
the population in general, and quick tsunami warning input - will prove valuable.
(2) The reassurance that the populace does not need to interpret every bump in the night
as potentially apocalyptic, i.e., that most noticeable earthquakes are not going to be
damaging.
(3) EEW systems provide a firm basis for all earthquake monitoring systems - fast,
accurate, and reliable - and so reinforce all earthquake information efforts. In particular,
the likelihood that major earthquakes will disrupt communications and operations means
that the instant global data delivery through an EEW is a critical feature in assuring
responsive earthquake monitoring and the performance of back-up systems.
For further details contact: Richard Allen (UC Berkeley, rallen@[Link], 510-642-
2175), Tom Heaton (Caltech, heaton@[Link], 626-395-4232) or John Vidale
(vidale@[Link], 310-210-2131).
A source for Tohoku EQ EEW - [Link]

You might also like