CHAPTER 1

EXPERIMENTS, MODELS, AND PROBABILITIES

1.1 Set Theory

 Set symbolized by capital letter.

 Set element symbolized by small letter.
 Symbol ∈ denotes set inclusion (Himpunan bagian), example x ∈ A mean x is an
element of set A. Meanwhile ∉ the opposite of set inclusion.
 Symbol ⊂ denotes subset, example A ⊂ B mean set A is subset of set B.
 Symbol = denotes set equality, example A = B if and only if B ⊂ A and A ⊂ B.
 Universal set (S) is the members of the universal set include all of the element of
all of the sets in the study.
 Symbol 𝟇 denote null set which has no element
 There are 3 set operation Union(U), Intersection(∩), and Complement(Ac)
 Union (U) set of all element in A or B.
 Corresponds to the logical “or” operation.

 Intersection(∩) set of all element which are contained both in

A and B.
 Corresponds to the logical “and” operation.

 Union (U) and Intersection(∩) combine two existing set to produce third set

 Difference (A-B) contains all element of A that aren’t element

of B.
 x ∈ A-B if x ∈ A and x ∉ B.
 A – B = A ∩ Bc or Ac = S-A.

 Complement(Ac) set of all element in S that aren’t in A.

 The complement of S = 𝟇 (null set).
 Forms a new set from one existing set.

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  There are 2 collection set Mutually Exclusive, and Collectively Exhaustive
 Mutually Exclusive if and only if Ai ∩ Aj ≠ 0 … i ≠ j or called
disjoint set.

 Collectively Exhaustive if and only if A1 U A2 U … U An = S.

Theorem 1.1
De Morgan’s law relates all three basic operations:
(A ∪ B)c = Ac ∩ Bc
Quiz 1.1
A pizza at Gerlanda’s is either regular (R) or Tuscan (T). In addition, each slice
may have mushrooms (M) or onions (O) as described by the Venn diagram at
right. For the sets specified below, shade the corresponding region of the
Venn diagram
(1) R = Tc

(2) M U O
(3) M ∩ O

(4) R U M
(5) R ∩ M (6) Tc- M

PROBLEMS
1.1.1 For Gerlanda’s pizza in Quiz 1.1, answer these questions :
(a) Are T and M mutually exclusive?
No, because set T and set M are union set. Mutually Exclusive occurs when there is
disjoint set.

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(b) Are R, T , and M collectively exhaustive?
Yes, because set R can be subset of set M.
(c) Are T and O mutually exclusive? State this condition in words.
Yes, because set T and set O are disjoint set
(d) Does Gerlanda’s make Tuscan pizzas with mushrooms and onions?
From the Venn diagram, M∩T and O are mutually exclusive. Thus Gerlanda’s doesn’t
make Tuscan pizza with mushrooms and onions.
(e) Does Gerlanda’s make regular pizzas that have neither mushrooms nor onions?
Yes
1.1.2 Continuing Quiz 1.1, write Gerlanda’s entire menu in words (supply prices if you wish).
 Tuscan (T) pizza with Mushroom (M) and Onion (O).
 Tuscan (T) pizza with Mushroom (M).
 Tuscan (T) pizza without topping.
 Regular (R) pizza with Mushroom (M) and Onion (O).
 Regular (R) pizza with Onion (O).
 Regular (R) pizza with Mushroom (M).
 Regular (R) pizza without topping
1.2 Applying Set Theory to Probability
Definition 1.1 Outcome

 An outcome of an experiment is any possible observation of that experiment. In

probability terms, we call this universal set the sample space.
Definition 1.2 Sample Space
 The sample space of an experiment is the finest-grain, mutually exclusive,
collectively exhaustive set of all possible outcomes.
Example 1.4
The sample space in Example 1.1 (Observe which side (head or tail) faces you after the coin
lands) is S = {h, t} where h is the outcome “observe head,” and t is the outcome “observe
tail”. The sample space in Example 1.2 (Flip a coin three times. Observe the sequence of
heads and tails) is S = {hhh, hht, hth, htt, thh, tht, tth, ttt}. The sample space in Example 1.3
(Flip a coin three times. Observe the number of heads) is S = {0, 1, 2, 3}.
Example 1.5
Manufacture an integrated circuit and test it to determine whether it meets quality objectives.
The possible outcomes are “accepted” (a) and “rejected” (r). The sample space is S = {a,r}.

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Definition 1.3 Event
 An event is a set of outcomes of an experiment.

Example 1.6
Suppose we roll a six-sided die and observe the number of dots on the side facing upwards.
The sample space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. Each subset of S is an event. Examples of events
are :
• The event E1 = {Roll 4 or higher} = {4, 5, 6}.
• The event E2 = {The roll is even} = {2, 4, 6}.
• E3 = {The roll is the square of an integer} = {1, 4}.
Example 1.7
Wait for someone to make a phone call and observe the duration of the call in minutes. An
outcome x is a nonnegative real number. The sample space is S = {x|x ≥ 0}. The event “the
phone call lasts longer than five minutes” is {x|x > 5}
Example 1.8
A short-circuit tester has a red light to indicate that there is a short circuit and a green light
to indicate that there is no short circuit. Consider an experiment consisting of a sequence of
three tests. In each test the observation is the color of the light that is on at the end of a test.
An outcome of the experiment is a sequence of red (r) and green (g) lights. We denote the

event that light n was red or green by Rn or Gn. The event R2 = {grg, grr, rrg, rrr}. We can also

denote an outcome as an intersection of events Ri and Gj. For example, the event R1G2R3 is
the set containing the single outcome {rgr}. Suppose we were interested only in the status of
light 2. In this case, the set of events {G2, R2} describes the events of interest. Moreover, for
each possible outcome of the three-light experiment, the second light was either red or green,
so the set of events {G2, R2} is both mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. However,
{G2, R2} is not a sample space for the experiment because the elements of the set do not
completely describe the set of possible outcomes of the experiment. The set {G2, R2} does not
have the finest-grain property. Yet sets of this type are sufficiently useful to merit a name of
their own.
Definition 1.3 Event

An event space is a collectively exhaustive, mutually exclusive set of events.

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Example 1.9
Flip four coins, a penny, a nickel, a dime, and a quarter. Examine the coins in order (penny,
then nickel, then dime, then quarter) and observe whether each coin shows a head (h) or a
tail (t). What is the sample space? How many elements are in the sample space? The sample
space is S = {hhhh, hhht, hhth, hhtt, hthh, htth, htht, httt, thhh, thht, thtt, thth, tthh, ttht,
ttth, tttt}
Example 1.10
Continuing example 1.9, let Bi = {outcomes with i heads}. Each Bi is an event containing one

or more outcomes. For example, B1 = {ttth, ttht, thtt, httt} contains four outcomes. The set

B = {B0, B1, B2, B3, B4} is an event space. Its members are mutually exclusive and collectively

exhaustive. It is not a sample space because it lacks the finest-grain property. Learning that
an experiment produces an event B1 tells you that one coin came up heads, but it doesn’t tell
you which coin it was.
Example 1.10.1
Observe a pair of modems transmitting four bits from one computer to another. For each bit,
observe whether the receiving modem detects the bit correctly (c) or makes an error (e). The

sample space is S = {cccc, ccce, ccec, ccee, cecc, cece, ceec, ceee, eccc, ecce, ecec, ecee,

eece, eecc, eeec, eeee}.

Example 1.10.2
Test four integrated circuits. For each one, observe whether the circuit is acceptable (a) or a

reject (r). The sample space is S = {aaaa, aaac, aaca, aacc, acaa, acac, acca, accc, caaa,

caac, caca, cacc, ccaa, ccac, ccca, cccc}. There are five events in the event space.

Example 1.10.3
In testing 20 circuits the sample space has 220 = 1,048,576 members, while the corresponding
event space has only 21 members.
Theorem 1.2
For an event space B = {B1, B2, . . .} and any event A in the sample space, let Ci = A∩ Bi.
For i ≠ j, the events Ci and Cj are mutually exclusive and A = C1 ∪ C2 ∪ · · ·

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In this example of Theorem 1.2, the event space is B = {B1, B2, B3, B4} and Ci =
A ∩ Bi for i = 1, . . . , 4. It should be apparent that A = C1 ∪ C2 ∪ C3 ∪ C4.
Example 1.11
In the coin-tossing experiment of Example 1.9, let A equal the set of outcomes with less than

three heads: A = {tttt, httt, thtt, ttht, ttth, hhtt, htht, htth, tthh, thth, thht}. From example

1.10, let Bi = {outcomes with i heads}. Since {B0, B1, B2, B3, B4} is an event space, theorem 1.2

states that A = (A∩B0) ∪ (A∩B1) ∪ (A∩B2) ∪ (A∩B3) ∪ (A∩B4). In this example, Bi⊂A, for

i = 0, 1, 2. Therefore A∩Bi = Bi for i = 0, 1, 2. Also, for i = 3 and i = 4, A∩Bi = φ so that A =

B0∪B1∪B2 is a union of disjoint sets. In words, this example states that the event “less than

three heads” is the union of events “zero heads,” “one head,” and “two heads.”
Quiz 1.2
Monitor three consecutive phone calls going through a telephone switching office. Classify
each one as a voice call (v) if someone is speaking, or a data call (d) if the call is carrying a
modem or fax signal. Your observation is a sequence of three letters (each letter is either v or
d). For example, two voice calls followed by one data call corresponds to vvd. Write the
elements of the following sets:
(1) A1 = {first call is a voice call} = {vvv, vvd, (6) B3 = {voice and data alternate} = {vdv,
vdv, vdd} dvd}
(2) B1 = {first call is a data call} = {dvd, dvv, (7) A4 = {one or more voice calls} = {vvv,
ddv, ddd} vvd, vdv, vdd, dvv, dvd}
(3) A2 = {second call is a voice call} = {vvv, (8) B4 = {two or more data calls} = {vdd,,
vvd, dvv, dvd} dvd, ddv, ddd}
(4) B2 = {second call is a data call} = {vdv,
vdd, ddv, ddd}
(5) A3 = {all calls are the same} = {vvv, ddd}

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For each pair of events A1 and B1, A2 and B2, and so on, identify whether the pair of events
is either mutually exclusive or collectively exhaustive or both.

A1 -- B1, A2 – B2 are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.

A3 – B3 are mutually exclusive

A4 – B4 are collectively exhaustive

PROBLEMS
1.2.1 A fax transmission can take place at any of three speeds depending on the condition of
the phone connection between the two fax machines. The speeds are high (h) at 14, 400 b/s,
medium (m) at 9600 b/s, and low (l) at 4800 b/s. In response to requests for information, a
company sends either short faxes of two (t) pages, or long faxes of four ( f ) pages. Consider
the experiment of monitoring a fax transmission and observing the transmission speed and
length. An observation is a two-letter word, for example, a high-speed, two-page fax is ht.
(a) What is the sample space of the low-speed fax.” What are the outcomes in
experiment? S = {ht, hf, mt, mf, lt, lf} A 3? A3 = {hf, ht, lt, lf}
(b) Let A1 be the event “medium-speed fax.” (e) Are A1, A2, and A3 mutually exclusive?
What are the outcomes in A1? A1 = {mt, mf} No
(c) Let A2 be the event “short (two-page)
(f) Are A1, A2, and A3 collectively exhaustive?
fax.” What are the outcomes in A2? A2 =
Yes
{ht, mt, lt}
(d) Let A3 be the event “high-speedfax or
1.2.2 An integrated circuit factory has three machines X, Y, and Z. Test one integrated circuit
produced by each machine. Either a circuit is acceptable (a) or it fails ( f ). An observation is a
sequence of three test results corresponding to the circuits from machines X, Y, and Z,
respectively. For example, aa f is the observation that the circuits from X and Y pass the
test and the circuit from Z fails the test.
(a) What are the elements of the sample space of this experiment ? S = {aaa, aaf, afa, aff, faa,
faf, ffa, fff}
(b) What are the elements of the sets Z F = {circuit from Z fails} , X A = {circuit from X is
acceptable} ZF = {aaf, aff, faf, fff}, XA = {aaa, aaf, afa, aff} .

(c) Are ZF and XA mutually exclusive? No

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(d) Are ZF and XA collectively exhaustive? Yes

(e) What are the elements of the sets C = {more than one circuit acceptable}, D = {at least
two circuits fail} C = {aaa, aaf, afa, faa}, D = {aaf, afa, aff, faa, faf, ffa}

(f) Are C and D mutually exclusive? No

(g) Are C and D collectively exhaustive? Yes

1.2.3 Shuffle a deck of cards and turn over the first card. What is the sample space of this
experiment? How many outcomes are in the event that the first card is a heart? S= {K♠, ...
A♠,K♥, ... A♥, K♦, ... A♦, K♣, ... A♣} , E = { K♥, ... A♥}
1.2.4 Find out the birthday (month and day but not year) of a randomly chosen person. What
is the sample space of the experiment? How many outcomes are in the event that the person
is born in July? S = {1/1,... 31/1, 1/2,... 28/2, 1/3,... 31/3, 1/4,... 30/4, 1/5,... 31/5, 1/6,...
30/6, 1/7,... 31/7, 1/8,... 31/8, 1/9,... 30/9, 1/10,... 31/10, 1/11,... 30/11, 1/12,... 31/12} E
= {1/7,... 31/7}
1.3 Probability Axioms
Definition 1.5 Axioms of Probability
A probability measure P[·] is a function that maps events in the sample space to real numbers
such that :
 Axiom 1 For any event A, P[A] ≥ 0.
 Axiom 2 P[S] = 1.
 Axiom 3 For any countable collection A1, A2, . . . of mutually exclusive events
P [A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · ·] = P [A1] + P [A2] + · · · .
Theorem 1.3
For mutually exclusive events A1 and A2,
P [A1 ∪ A2] = P [A1] + P [A2] .
Theorem 1.4
If A = A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ∪ Am and Ai ∩ Aj = φ for i ≠ j then,
𝒎

𝑷(𝑨) = ∑ 𝑷[𝑨𝒊 ]
𝒊=𝟏

Theorem 1.5

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The probability of an event B = {s1, s2, . . . , sm} is the sum of the probabilities of the outcomes

contained in the event :

𝒎

𝑷(𝑩) = ∑ 𝑷[{𝑺𝒊 ]
𝒊=𝟏

PROOF Each outcome si is an event (a set) with the single element si. Since outcomes by
definition are mutually exclusive, B can be expressed as the union of m disjoint sets :
B = {s1} ∪ {s2} ∪ · · · ∪ {sm}
with {si} ∩ {sj} = φ for i ≠ j. Applying theorem 1.4 with Bi = {si} yields
Example 1.12
Let Ti denote the duration (in minutes) of the ith phone call you place today. The probability
that your first phone call lasts less than five minutes and your second phone call lasts at least
ten minutes is P[T1 < 5, T2 ≥ 10].
Theorem 1.6

For an experiment with sample space S = {s1, . . . , sn} in which each outcome si is equally

likely,

P [si] = 1/n 1≤i≤n

PROOF Since all outcomes have equal probability, there exists p such that P[s i] = p, for i =
1, . . . , n. theorem 1.5 implies,
P [S] = P [s1] + · · · + P [sn] = np
Since axiom 2 says P[S] = 1, we must have p = 1/n.
Example 1.13
As in example 1.6, roll a six-sided die in which all faces are equally likely. What is the
probability of each outcome? Find the probabilities of the events: “Roll 4 or higher”,“Roll an
even number” and “Roll the square of an integer.” The probability of each outcome is P [i] =
1/6, i = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. The probabilities of the three events are
• E1[Roll 4 or higher] = {4, 5, 6}, P1= 3/6= 1/2.
• E2[Roll an even number] = {2, 4, 6}, P2= 3/6 = 1/2.
• E3[Roll the square of an integer] = {1,4}, P3= 1/2.
Quiz 1.3

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A student’s test score T is an integer between 0 and 100 corresponding to the experimental
outcomes s0, . . . , s100. A score of 90 to 100 is an A, 80 to 89 is a B, 70 to 79 is a C, 60 to 69 is
a D, and below 60 is a failing grade of F. Given that all scores between 51 and 100 are
equally likely and a score of 50 or less never occurs, find the following probabilities :

(1) P[{s79}] = 79 is between 51 and 100 so between 50-0 less never occurred (0),

the probability is equally likely P[79] = P[F] = 1/50 x 9 = 9/50

1/50 (5) P[T ≥ 80] = T(80-100) use equal

(2) P[{s100}] = 100 still include in 51 and probability P[T≥80] = 1/50 x 21 = 21/50

100 so the probability is equally likely (6) P[T < 90] = T(0-89) between 51-89

P[100] = 1/50 use equal probability, otherwise 0

(3) P[A] = Value range of score A (90-100) P[T<90] = 1/50 x 39 = 39/50

between 51 and 100 so the probability is (7) P[a C grade or better] = C (70-79),

equally likely P[A] = 1/50 x 11 = 11/50 B(80-89), A(90-100) use equal

(4) P[F] = Score F (59-0) between 59 – 51 probability P[70-100] = 1/50 x 31 =

use the probability equally likely, 31/50

(8) P[student passes] = P[60-100] = 1/50
x 41 = 41/50
PROBLEMS
1.3.1 Computer programs are classified by the length of the source code and by the execution
time. Programs with more than 150 lines in the source code are big (B). Programs with ≤ 150
lines are little (L). Fast programs (F) run in less than 0.1 seconds. Slow programs (W) require
at least 0.1 seconds. Monitor a program executed by a computer. Observe the length of the
source code and the run time. The probability model for this experiment contains the
following information: P[LF] = 0.5, P[BF] = 0.2, and P[BW] = 0.2. What is the
sample space of the experiment? Calculate the following probabilities :

(a)P[W] = Sample Space (S) = {BF, BW, LF, LW} dengan probability P[S] = 1, maka,

P[S] = P[BW] + P[BF] + P[LF] + P[LW]

1 = 0.2 + 0.2 + 0.5 + P[LB]

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P[LW] = 1 – 0.9 = 0.1
P[W] = P[LW] + P[BW]
P[W] = 0.1 + 0.2 = 0.3
(b)P[B] = P[BF] + P[BW] = 0.2 + 0.2 = 0.4
(c) P[W ∪ B] = P[W] + P[B] – P[BW] = 0.3 + 0.4 – 0.2 = 0.5
1.3.2 There are two types of cellular phones, handheld phones (H) that you carry and mobile
phones (M) that are mounted in vehicles. Phone calls can be classified by the traveling speed
of the user as fast (F) or slow (W). Monitor a cellular phone call and observe the type of
telephone and the speed of the user. The probability model for this experiment has the
following information: P[F] = 0.5, P[HF] = 0.2, P[MW] = 0.1. What is the sample space of the
experiment? Calculate the following probabilities:

(a)P[W] = Sample Space (S) = {HF, HW, MF, MW}, P[S] = 1,

P[F] = P[HF] + P[MF]

0.5 = 0.2 + P[MF]
P[MF] = 0.3
P[S] = P[HF] + P[HW] + P[MF] + P[MW]
1 = 0.2 + P[HW] + 0.3 + 0.1
P[HW] = 1 – 0.6 = 0.4
P[W] = P[HW] + P[MW] = 0.3 + 0.1 = 0.4
(b)P[MF] = 0.3
(c)P[H] = P[HF] + P[HW] = 0.2 + 0.4 = 0.6
1.3.3 Shuffle a deck of cards and turn over the first card. What is the probability that the first
card is a heart? P[S] = P[♥] + P[♣] + P[♦] + P[♠] = 1, P[♥] = 1/52 x 13 = 13/52
1.3.4 You have a six-sided die that you roll once and observe the number of dots facing
upwards. What is the sample space? What is the probability of each sample outcome? What
is the probability of E, the event that the roll is even? S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}, P[Si] = 1/6, P[E(even)]
= {2,4,6} = 3/6 = ½
1.3.5 A student’s score on a 10-point quiz is equally likely to be any integer between 0 and
10. What is the probability of an A, which requires the student to get a score of 9 or more?
P[S] = P[0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10] = 1, P[Si] = 1/11, P[A(9, 10)] = 1/11 x 2 = 2/11
What is the probability the student gets an F by getting less than 4? P[F(0-3)] = 1/11 x 4 =
4/11

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1.4 Some Consequences of the Axioms
Theorem 1.7
The probability measure P[·] satisfies
(a) P[φ] = 0.
(b) P[Ac] = 1 - P[A].
(c) For any A and B (not necessarily disjoint), P [A ∪ B] = P [A] + P [B] - P [A ∩ B] .
(d) If A ⊂ B, then P[A] ≤ P[B].
Theorem 1.8
For any event A, and event space {B1, B2, . . . , Bm},
𝒎

𝑷(𝑨) = ∑ 𝑷(𝑨 ∩ 𝑩𝒊 )
𝒊=𝟏

PROOF The proof follows directly from theorem 1.2 and theorem 1.4. In this case, the
disjoint sets are Ci = {A ∩ Bi} .
Example 1.14
A company has a model of telephone usage. It classifies all calls as either long (l),if they last
more than three minutes, or brief (b). It also observes whether calls carry voice (v), data (d),
or fax (f). This model implies an experiment in which the procedure is to monitor a call and
the observation consists of the type of call, v, d, or f , and the length, l or b. The sample space
has six outcomes S = {lv, bv, ld, bd, l f, bf}. In this problem, each call is classifed in two ways:
by length and by type. Using L for the event that a call is long and B for the event that a call is
brief, {L, B} is an event space. Similarly, the voice (V), data (D) and fax (F) classification is an
event space {V, D, F}. The sample space can be represented by a table in which the rows and
columns are labeled by events and the intersection of each row and column event contains a
single outcome. The corresponding table entry is the probability of that outcome. In this case,
the table is

For example, from the table we can read that the probability of a brief data call is P[bd] =
P[BD] = 0.08. Note that {V, D, F} is an event space corresponding to {B1, B2, B3} in theorem
1.8. Thus we can apply theorem 1.8 to find the probability of a long call:
P [L] = P[LV] + P[LD] + P[LF] = 0.57.
Quiz 1.4 Monitor a phone call. Classify the call as a voice call (V) if someone is speaking, or a
data call (D) if the call is carrying a modem or fax signal. Classify the call as long (L) if the call

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lasts for more than three minutes; otherwise classify the call as brief (B). Based on data
collected by the telephone company, we use the following probability model: P[V] = 0.7, P[L]
= 0.6, P[VL] = 0.35. Find the following probabilities :

(1) P[DL] (3) P[VB]

P[L] = P[VL] + P[DL] P[V] = P[VL] + P[VB]
0.6 = 0.35 + P[DL] = 0.25 0.7 = 0.35 + P[VB] = 0.35
(2) P[D ∪ L] = (4) P[V ∪ L] = P[V] + P[L] – P[VL] = 0.7 +
P[S] = P[VL] + P[VB] + P[DL] + P[DB] = 0.6 – 0.35 = 0.95
1 (5) P[V ∪ D] = P[S] = 1
1 = 0.35 + 0.35 + 0.25 + P[DB] (6) P[LB]
P[DB] = 1 – 0.95 = 0.05 P[B] = P[VB] + P[DB] = 0.35 + 0.05 =
P[D] = P[DL] + P[DB] = 0.25 + 0.05 = 0.3 0.4
P[D ∪ L] = P[D] + P[L] – P[DL] = 0.3 + P[LB] = P[L] + P[B] = 0.6 + 0.4 = 1
0.6 – 0.25 = 0.65 (jawaban di quiz solution LLc = 0)
PROBLEMS
1.4.1 Mobile telephones perform handoffs as they move from cell to cell. During a call, a
telephone either performs zero handoffs (H0), one handoff (H1), or more than one handoff
(H2). In addition, each call is either long (L), if it lasts more than three minutes, or brief (B).
The following table describes the probabilities of the possible types of calls.

What is the probability P[H0] that a phone makes no handoffs? P[H0] = P[H0L] + P[H0B] =
0,1 + 0.4 = 0.5 What is the probability a call is brief? P[B] = P[H0B] + P[H2B] + P[H3B] = 0.4
+ 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.6 What is the probability a call is long or there are at least two handoffs? P[L
U H2] = P[L] + P[H2] – P[LH2] = (P[H0L] + P[H1L] + P[H2L]) + (P[H2L] + P[H2B]) - P[LH2]
= (0.1 + 0.1 + 0.2) + (0.2 + 0.1) - 0.2 = 0.4 + 0.3 – 0.2 = 0.5
1.4.2 For the telephone usage model of example 1.14, let Bm denote the event that a call is
billed for m minutes. To generate a phone bill, observe the duration of the call in integer
minutes (rounding up). Charge for M minutes M = 1, 2, 3, . . . if the exact duration T is M -1 <
t ≤ M. A more complete probability model shows that for m = 1, 2, . . . the probability of each
event Bm is

13
 𝑃 [𝐵𝑚 ] = 𝛼(1 − 𝛼)𝑚−1 , where 𝛼 = 1 − (0.57)1/3 = 0.171
(a) Classify a call as long, L, if the call lasts more than three minutes. What is P[L]? P[Bm ≥ 3]
= P[L] = 1- (P[B1] + P[B2] + P[B3]) = 1 - [(𝜶(𝟏 − 𝜶)𝟎 ) + (𝜶(𝟏 − 𝜶)𝟏 ) ) + (𝜶(𝟏 − 𝜶)𝟐 )] =
1 – [𝜶 + 𝜶 − 𝜶𝟐 + 𝜶 − 𝟐𝜶𝟐 + 𝜶𝟑 = 1-[ 𝟑𝜶 + 𝟑𝜶𝟐 − 𝜶𝟑 = (𝟏 − 𝜶)𝟑
(b) What is the probability that a call will be billed for nine minutes or less?

1.4.3 The basic rules of genetics were discovered in mid-1800s by Mendel, who found that
each characteristic of a pea plant, such as whether the seeds were green or yellow, is
determined by two genes, one from each parent. Each gene is either dominant (d) or recessive
(r). Mendel’s experiment is to select a plant and observe whether the genes are both
dominant (d), both recessive (r), or one of each (hybrid) (h). In his pea plants, Mendel found
that yellow seeds were a dominant trait over green seeds. A yy pea with two yellow genes
has yellow seeds; a gg pea with two recessive genes has green seeds; a hybrid gy or yg pea
has yellow seeds. In one of Mendel’s experiments, he started with a parental generation
in which half the pea plants were yy and half the plants were gg. The two groups were
crossbred so that each pea plant in the first generation was gy. In the second generation, each
pea plant was equally likely to inherit a y or a g gene from each first generation parent. What
is the probability P[Y] that a randomly chosen pea plant in the second generation
has yellow seeds? Sample Space (S) = {yy, gy, yg, gg}, P[S] = 1, P[Si] = 1/4; Y = {yy, gy, yg},
P[Y] = 1/4 x 3 = 3/4
1.4.4 Use theorem 1.7 to prove the following facts :

(a) P[A ∪ B] ≥ P[A] = Since P[A] ⊂ P[A ∪ B], P[A] ≤ P[A ∪ B]

(b) P[A ∪ B] ≥ P[B] = Since P[B] ⊂ P[A ∪ B], P[B] ≤ P[A ∪ B]

(c) P[A ∩ B] ≤ P[A] = Since P[A ∩ B] ⊂ P[A], P[A ∩ B] ≤ P[A]

(d) P[A ∩ B] ≤ P[B] = Since P[A ∩ B] ⊂ P[B], P[A ∩ B] ≤ P[B]

1.4.5 Use Theorem 1.7 to prove by induction the union bound: For any collection of events
A1, . . . , An, 𝑃[𝐴1 ∪ 𝐴2 ∪ … ∪ 𝐴𝑛 ] ≤ ∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑃[𝐴𝑖 ]
P[A ∪ B] = P[A] + P[B] - P[A ∩ B] (theorem 1.7)

P[A1 ∪ A2] = P[A1] + P[A2] - P[A1 ∩ A2] (theorem 1.7) n = 2 to prove union bond

14
P[A1 ∩ A2] ≥ 0 (axiom 1) thus, P[A1 ∪ A2] ≤ P[A1] + P[A2] proves union bond n = 2
A = A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ∪ An - 1, B = An, (for n – 1 subset)
P [A] = P [A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · ∪ An - 1] ≤ P [A1] + · · · + P [An - 1]
P [A1 ∪ · · · ∪ An] = P [A ∪ B]
≤ P [A] + P [B] (by the union bound for n = 2)
= P [A1 ∪ · · · ∪ An - 1] + P [An]
≤ P [A1] + · · · P [An - 1] + P [An]
1.4.6 Suppose a cellular telephone is equally likely to make zero handoffs (H0), one handoff
(H1), or more than one handoff (H2). Also, a caller is either on foot (F) with probability 5/12 or
in a vehicle (V). (a) Given the preceding information, find three ways to fill in the following
probability table:

(b) Suppose we also learn that 1/4 of all callers are on foot making calls with no handoffs and
that 1/6 of all callers are vehicle users making calls with a single handoff. Given these
additional facts, find all possible ways to fill in the table of probabilities (Jawaban di kertas
problem solution)
1.4.7 Using only the three axioms of probability, prove P[φ] = 0 (Jawaban di kertas problem
solution)
1.4.8 Using the three axioms of probability and the fact that P[φ] = 0, prove theorem 1.4. Hint:
Define Ai = Bi for i = 1, . . . , m and Ai = φ for i > m (Jawaban di kertas problem solution)
1.4.9 For each fact stated in Theorem 1.7, determine which of the three axioms of probability
are needed to prove the fact (Jawaban di kertas problem solution)
1.5 Conditional Probability
Example 1.15
Consider an experiment that consists of testing two integrated circuits that come from the
same silicon wafer, and observing in each case whether a circuit is accepted (a) or rejected
(r). The sample space of the experiment is S = {rr,ra, ar, aa}. Let B denote the event that the
first chip tested is rejected. Mathematically, B = {rr,ra}. Similarly, let A = {rr, ar} denote the
event that the second circuit is a failure.
Definition 1.6 Conditional Probability
The conditional probability of the event A given the occurrence of the event B is

15
 𝐏 [𝐀𝐁]
𝐏 [𝐀|𝐁] =
𝐏[𝐁]
Theorem 1.9
A conditional probability measure P[A|B] has the following properties that correspond to
the axioms of probability.

Axiom 1: P[A|B] ≥ 0.

Axiom 2: P[B|B] = 1.

Axiom 3: If A = A1 ∪ A2 ∪ · · · with Ai∩Aj = φ for i ≠ j, then P [A|B] = P [A1|B] + P [A2|B] + · · ·

Example 1.16
With respect to example 1.15, consider the a priori probability model P [rr] = 0.01, P [ra] =
0.01, P [ar] = 0.01, P [aa] = 0.97. (1.22). Find the probability of A = “second chip rejected”
and B = “first chip rejected.” Also find the conditional probability that the second chip is a
reject given that the first chip is a reject.
P [A] = P [rr] + P [ar] = 0.02
P [B] = P [rr] + P [ra] = 0.02.
P [A|B] = P [AB] / P [B] = P[rr] / P[B] = 0.01/0.02 = 0.5
Example 1.17
Shuffle a deck of cards and observe the bottom card. What is the conditional probability that
the bottom card is the ace of clubs given that the bottom card is a black card?
P[A] = 1/52, P[B] = 26/52, P [A|B] = P[A|B] / P[B] = P[A] / P[B] = 1/52 : 26/52 = 1/26
Example 1.18
Roll two fair four-sided dice. Let X1 and X2 denote the number of dots that appear on die 1
and die 2, respectively. Let A be the event X1 ≥ 2. What is P[A]? Let B denote the event X2 >
X1. What is P[B]? What is P[A|B]?
P[S] = 1, P[Si] = 1/16, P[A] = P[X1≥ 2] = 12/16 = 3/4, P[B] = 6/16
= 3/8, P[AB] = 3/16, P[A|B] = P[AB] / P[B] = 3/16 : 3/8 = ½

Theorem 1.10 Law of Total Probability

For an event space {B1, B2, . . . , Bm} with P[Bi] > 0 for all i, P[A] = ∑𝑚
𝑖=1 P[A|B𝑖 ]P[B𝑖 ]

16
PROOF This follows from theorem 1.8 and the identity P[ABi] = P[A|Bi]P[Bi], which is a direct
consequence of the definition of conditional probability.
Example 1.19
A company has three machines B1, B2, and B3 for making 1k resistors. It has
been observed that 80% of resistors produced by B1 are within 50Ω of the nominal
value. Machine B2 produces 90% of resistors within 50Ω of the nominal value. The
percentage for machine B3 is 60%. Each hour, machine B1 produces 3000 resistors,
B2 produces 4000 resistors, and B3 produces 3000 resistors. All of the resistors are
mixed together at random in one bin and packed for shipment. What is the probability
that the company ships a resistor that is within 50Ω of the nominal value?
A = {resistor is within 50 of the nominal value}, P[A|B1] = 0.8, P[A|B2] = 0.9, P[A|B3] = 0.6,
[S] = 3000 + 4000 + 3000 = 10.000, P[Si] = 1/10.000, P[B1] = 3000/10.000 = 3/10, P[B2]
= 4000/10.000 = 4/10, P[B3] = 3000/10.000 = 3/10
P [A] = P [A| B1] P[B1] + P[A| B2] P[B2]+ P[A| B3] P[B3] = (0.8)(0.3) + (0.9)(0.4) +
(0.6)(0.3) = 0.78.
Theorem 1.11 Bayes’ theorem
P[B|A] = (P[A|B] x P[B]) / P[A]
PROOF : P[B|A] = P[AB] / P[A] = (P[A|B] x P[B]) / P[A]
Example 1.20
In example 1.19 about a shipment of resistors from the factory, we learned that :
 The probability that a resistor is from machine B3 is P[B3] = 0.3.
 The probability that a resistor is acceptable, i.e., within 50 of the nominal value is
P[A] = 0.78.
 Given that a resistor is from machine B3, the conditional probability that it is
acceptable is P[A|B3] = 0.6.
What is the probability that an acceptable resistor comes from machine B3 ?
P[B3|A] = (P[A|B3] x P[B3]) / P[A] = (0.6)(0.3)/(0.78) = 0.23
Quiz 1.5
Monitor three consecutive phone calls going through a telephone switching office. Classify
each one as a voice call (v) if someone is speaking, or a data call (d) if the call is carrying a
modem or fax signal. Your observation is a sequence of three letters (each one is either v or
d). For example, three voice calls corresponds to vvv. The outcomes vvv and ddd have

17
probability 0.2 whereas each of the other outcomes vvd, vdv, vdd, dvv, dvd, and ddv has
probability 0.1. Count the number of voice calls (NV) in the three calls you have observed.
Consider the four events NV = 0, NV = 1, NV = 2, NV = 3. Describe in words and also calculate
the following probabilities:
(1) P[NV = 2] = 𝐏[{𝐯𝐯𝐝, 𝐯𝐝𝐯, 𝐝𝐯𝐯}] = 𝟎. 𝟑
(2) P[NV ≥ 1] = 𝟏 − 𝐏[𝐍𝐕 = 𝟎] = 𝟏 − 𝐏[𝐝𝐝𝐝] = 𝟎. 𝟖
(3) P[{vvd}|NV = 2] = P[vvd] / P[NV = 2] = 0.1 / 0.3 = 1/3
(4) P[{ddv}|NV = 2] = P [ddv] / P[NV = 2] = 0 (number of the voice > oucome )
(5) P[NV = 2|NV ≥ 1] = P[NV = 2] / P[NV ≥ 1] = 0.3 / 0.8 = 3/8
(6) P[NV ≥ 1|NV = 2] = P[NV ≥ 1] / P[NV = 2] = 0.8 / 0.3 = 8/3 ≈ 1 (maz probability
value)
PROBLEMS
1.5.1 Given the model of handoffs and call lengths in problem 1.4.1,
(a) What is the probability that a brief call will have no handoffs?
P[B] = P[H0B] + P[H1B] + P[H2B] = 0.4 + 0.1 + 0.1 = 0.6
P[H0|B] = P[H0B] / P[B] = 0.4 / 0.6 = 4/6 = 2/3
(b) What is the probability that a call with one handoff will be long?
P[H1] = P[H1L] + P[H1B] = 0.2
P[H1|L] = P[H1L] / P[H1] = 0.1 / 0.2 = 1/2
(c) What is the probability that a long call will have one or more handoffs? P[L] = 0.4
P[H1∪H2|L| = ( P[H1L] + P[H2L] ] / P[L] = (0.1 + 0.2) / 0.4 = 3/4
1.5.2 You have a six-sided die that you roll once. Let Ri denote the event that the roll is i. Let
Gj denote the event that the roll is greater than j. Let E denote the event that the roll of the
die is even-numbered.
(a) What is P[R3|G1], the conditional probability that 3 is rolled given that the roll is greater
than 1? P[G1] = 1- P[G=1] = 6/6 – 1/6 = 5/6, G = {S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6}, P[R3G1] = P[S3] =
1/6, P[R3|G1] = P[R3G1] / P[G1] = 1/6 : 5/6 = 1/5
(b) What is the conditional probability that 6 is rolled given that the roll is greater than 3?
P[G3] = 1- P[G = 3] = 6/6 – 3/6 = 3/6, P[R6G3] = P[S6] = 1/6, P[R6|G3] = P[R6G3] / P[G3]
= 1/6 : 3/6 = 1/3

18
(c) What is P[G3|E], the conditional probability that the roll is greater than 3 given that the
roll is even? P[E] = P[2,4,6] = 3/6 = 1/2, E = {S2, S4, S6}, P[G3E] = P[S4, S6] = 2/6 = 1/3,
P[G3|E] = P[G3E] / P[E] = 2/6 : 3/6 = 2/3
(d) Given that the roll is greater than 3, what is the conditional probability that the roll is
even? P[G3] = 3/6, P[EG3] = 2/6, P[E| G3] = P[EG3] / P[G3] = 2/6 : 3/6 = 2/3
1.5.3 You have a shuffled deck of three cards: 2, 3, and 4. You draw one card. Let Ci denote
the event that card i is picked. Let E denote the event that card chosen is a even-numbered
card.
(a) What is P[C2|E], the probability that the 2 is picked given that an even-numbered card is
chosen? P[E] = P[2,4] = 2/3, E = {S2, S4}, P[C2E] = P[S2] = 1/3, P[C2|E] = P[C2E] / P[E] =
1/3 : 2/3 = 1/2
(b) What is the conditional probability that an even numbered card is picked given that the 2
is picked? P[C2] = 1/3, C = {S2, S3, S4}, P[EC2] = 1/3, P[E|C2] = P[EC2] / P[C2] = 1/3 : 1/3 =
1
1.5.4 From problem 1.4.3, what is the conditional probability of yy, that a pea plant has two
dominant genes given the event Y that it has yellow seeds? S = {yy, yg, gy, gg}, P[DY] = P[yy]
= 1/4, P [Y] = P [yy, gy, yg] = 3/4, P[D|Y] = P [DY] / P [Y] = 1/4 : 3/4 = 1/3
1.5.5 You have a shuffled deck of three cards: 2, 3, and 4 and you deal out the three cards.
Let Ei denote the event that ith card dealt is even numbered.
(a) What is P[E2|E1], the probability the second card is even given that the first card is even?
S = {234, 243, 324, 342, 423, 432}, P[E1] = 4/6, E1 = {234, 243, 423, 432}, P[E2E1] = 2/6,
P[E2|E1] = P[E2E1] / P[E1] = 2/6 : 4/6 = 1/2
(b) What is the conditional probability that the first two cards are even given that the third
card is even? P[E1E2|E3] = P[E1E2E3] / P[E3] = 0
(c) Let Oi represent the event that the ith card dealt is odd numbered. What is P[E2|O1], the
conditional probability that the second card is even given that the first card is odd? P[E2|O1]
= P[O1E2] / P[O1] = P[O1] / P[O1] = 1
(d) What is the conditional probability that the second card is odd given that the first card is
odd? P[O2|O1] = P[O1O2] / P[O1] = 0.
1.5.6 Deer ticks can carry both Lyme disease and human granulocytic ehrlichiosis (HGE). In a
study of ticks in the Midwest, it was found that 16% carried Lyme disease, 10% had HGE, and

19
that 10% of the ticks that had either Lyme disease or HGE carried both diseases.
(a) What is the probability P[LH] that a tick carries both Lyme disease (L) and HGE (H)?
P[L] = 0.16, P[H] = 0.10, P[LH|L∪H] = P[LH∩(L∪H)] / P[L∪H] = P[LH] / P[L∪H] = 0.10,
P[LH] = 0.10 P[L∪H] = 0.10 (P[L] + P[H] - P[LH]), P[LH] = 0.10(0.16 + 0.10) / 1.1 =
0.0236.
(b) What is the conditional probability that a tick has HGE given that it has Lyme disease?
P[H|L] = P[LH] / P[L] = 0.0236 / 0.16 = 0.1475
1.6 Independence
Definition 1.7 Two Independent Events
P [A|B] = P [A], P [B|A] = P [B]
Example 1.21
Suppose that for the three lights of Example 1.8, each outcome (a sequence of three lights,
each either red or green) is equally likely. Are the events R2 that the second light was red and
G2 that the second light was green independent? Are the events R1 and R2 independent?
Sample space S = {rrr, rrg,rgr,rgg, grr, grg, ggr, ggg}, P[Si] = 1/8, R2 = {rrr, rrg, grr, grg}, G2
= {rgr,rgg, ggr, ggg}, P[R2] = P[G2] = 4/8, R2 ∩ G2 = φ an P[R2G2] = 0. That is, R2 and G2
must be disjoint because the second light cannot be both red and green. R1 = {rgg, rgr, rrg,
rrr}, R2 = {rrg, rrr, grg, grr}, P[R1] = P[R2] = 4/8, R1 ∩ R2 = {rrg, rrr} = P[R1R2] = 2/8. Since
P[R1R2] = P[R1]P[R2], events R1 and R2 are independent.
Example 1.22
Integrated circuits undergo two tests. A mechanical test determines whether pins have
the correct spacing, and an electrical test checks the relationship of outputs to inputs.
We assume that electrical failures and mechanical failures occur independently. Our
information about circuit production tells us that mechanical failures occur with probability
0.05 and electrical failures occur with probability 0.2. What is the probability
model of an experiment that consists of testing an integrated circuit and observing the
results of the mechanical and electrical tests? S = {(ma, ea), (ma, er), (mr, ea), (mr, er)},
P[Mc] = 0.05, P[Ec] = 0.2, P[M] = 1 – 0.05 = 0.95 ,P[E] = 1- 0.2 = 0.8.
P[(ma, ea)] = P[ME] = P[M] P[E] = 0.95 × 0.8 = 0.76
P[(ma, er)] = P[MEc] = P[M] P[Ec] = 0.95 × 0.2 = 0.19
P[(mr, ea)] = P[McE] = P[Mc] P[E] = 0.05 × 0.8 = 0.04
P[(mr, er)] = P[Mc Ec] = P[Mc Ec] = 0.05 × 0.2 = 0.01

20
Definition 1.8.3 Independent Events
A1, A2, and A3 are independent if and only if
(a) A1 and A2 are independent
(b) A2 and A3 are independent
(c) A1 and A3 are independent
(d) P[A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3] = P[A1]P[A2]P[A3].
Example 1.23
In an experiment with equiprobable outcomes, the event space is S = {1, 2, 3, 4}. P[s] = 1/4
for all s ∈ S. Are the events A1 = {1, 3, 4}, A2 = {2, 3, 4}, and A3 = φ independent? P (A1 ∩ A2
∩ A3) = P(A1) P(A2) P(A3) = 0, P(A1 ∩ A2) = P[{3, 4}] = 1/2 ≠ P(A1) P(A2) = 3/4 ×
3/4

Definition 1.9 More than Two Independent Events

If n ≥ 3, the sets A1, A2, . . . , An are independent if and only if
(a) every set of n - 1 sets taken from A1, A2, . . . An is independent
(b) P[A1 ∩ A2 ∩ · · · ∩ An] = P[A1]P[A2] · · · P[An].
Quiz 1.6
Monitor two consecutive phone calls going through a telephone switching office. Classify each
one as a voice call (v) if someone is speaking, or a data call (d) if the call is carrying a modem
or fax signal. Your observation is a sequence of two letters (either v or d). For example, two
voice calls corresponds to vv. The two calls are independent and the probability that any one
of them is a voice call is 0.8. Denote the identity of call i by Ci . If call i is a voice call, then Ci =
v; otherwise, Ci = d. Count the number of voice calls in the two calls you have observed. NV is
the number of voice calls. Consider the three events NV = 0, NV = 1, NV = 2. Determine
whether the following pairs of events are independent!
P[{vv}]=0.82=0.64, P[{vd}]=0.8x0.2=0.16, P[{dv}]=0.2x0.8=0.16, P[{dd}]=0.22 =0.04
(1) {NV = 2} and {NV ≥ 1}
P[NV = 2, NV ≥ 1] = P[NV = 2] = P[{vv}] = 0.64
P[NV ≥ 1] = P[{vd, dv, vv}] = 0.96
P[NV = 2] P[NV ≥ 1] = (0.64)(0.96) ≠ P[NV = 2, NV ≥ 1] dependent
(2) {NV ≥ 1} and {C1 = v}
P[NV ≥ 1, C1 = v] = P[{vd, vv}] = 0.80
P[NV ≥ 1] P[C1 = v] = (0.96)(0.8) = 0.768 ≠ P[NV ≥ 1, C1 = v] dependent
(3) {C2 = v} and {C1 = d}
P[C1 = d]P[C2 = v] = (0.2)(0.8) = 0.16 independent

21
(4) {C2 = v} and {NV is even}
P[C2 = v, NV = even] = P[{vv}] = 0.64
P[C2 = v] = P [{dv, vv}] = 0.8, P[NV = even] = P[{dd, vv}] = 0.68
P[C2 = v]P[NV = even] = (0.8)(0.68) = 0.544
P[C2 = v, NV = even] ≠ 0.544, the events are dependent.
1.7 Sequential Experiments and Tree Diagrams
Example 1.24
For the resistors of Example 1.19, we have used A to denote the event that a randomly chosen
resistor is “within 50 Ω of the nominal value.” This could mean “acceptable.” We use the
notation N (“not acceptable”) for the complement of A. The experiment of testing a resistor
can be viewed as a two-step procedure. First we identify which machine (B1, B2, or B3)
produced the resistor. Second, we find out if the resistor is acceptable. Sketch a sequential
tree for this experiment. What is the probability of choosing a resistor from machine B that
is not acceptable? P[B2] = 0.4, P[N |B2] = 0.1, P[B2 N ]= (0.4)(0.1) = 0.04.
Quiz 1.7
In a cellular phone system, a mobile phone must be paged to receive a phone call. However,
paging attempts don’t always succeed because the mobile phone may not receive the paging
signal clearly. Consequently, the system will page a phone up to three times before giving up.
If a single paging attempt succeeds with probability 0.8, sketch a probability tree for this
experiment and find the probability P[F] that the phone is found.

1.8 Counting Methods

Definition 1.10 Fundamental Principle of Counting
If subexperiment A has n possible outcomes, and subexperiment B has k possible outcomes,
then there are nk possible outcomes when you perform both sub-experiments.

22
Example 1.28
There are two sub-experiments. The first sub-experiment is “Flip a coin.” It has two outcomes,
H and T. The second sub-experiment is “Roll a die.” It has six outcomes, 1, 2, . . . , 6. The
experiment, “Flip a coin and roll a die,” has 2 × 6 = 12 outcomes :

Example 1.29
Shuffle a deck and observe each card starting from the top. The outcome of the experiment
is an ordered sequence of the 52 cards of the deck. How many possible outcomes are there?
52 × 51 × … × 1 = 52!
Example 1.30
Shuffle the deck and choose three cards in order. How many outcomes are there?
52 × 51 × 50.
Theorem 1.12
The number of k-permutations of n distinguishable objects is

Theorem 1.13
The number of ways to choose k objects out of n distinguishable objects is

Definition 1.11 n choose k

For an integer n ≥ 0, we define

Example 1.31
 The number of five-card poker hands is (52
5
)=2.598.960

 The number of ways of picking 60 out of 120 students is (120

60
)

 The number of ways of choosing 5 starters for a basketball team with 11 players is
(11
5
)= 462
 A baseball team has 15 field players and 10 pitchers. Each field player can take any of
the 8 non-pitching positions. Therefore, the number of possible starting line ups is

23
 (10
1
)(15
8
)=64350 , For each choice of starting lineup, the manager must submit to the
umpire a batting order for the 9 starters. The number of possible batting orders is N ×
9! = 23,351,328,000 since there are N ways to choose the 9 starters, and for each
choice of 9 starters, there are 9! = 362,880 possible batting orders.
Example 1.32
To return to our original question of this section, suppose we draw seven cards. What is the
probability of getting a hand without any queens?
𝑯 = (𝟓𝟐
𝟕
) P[H] = 1/H, HNQ =(48
7
), HNQ /H = 0.5504.
Theorem 1.14
Given m distinguishable objects, there are mn ways to choose with replacement an ordered
sample of n objects.
Example 1.34
There are 𝟐𝟏𝟎 = 𝟏𝟎𝟐𝟒 binary sequences of length 10.
Example 1.35
The letters A through Z can produce 𝟐𝟔𝟒 = 𝟒𝟓𝟔, 𝟗𝟕𝟔 four-letter words.
Example 1.36
A chip fabrication facility produces microprocessors. Each microprocessor is tested to
determine whether it runs reliably at an acceptable clock speed. A sub-experiment to test a
microprocessor has sample space S = {0, 1} to indicate whether the test was a failure (0) or a
success (1). For test i, we record xi = 0 or xi = 1 to indicate the result. In testing four
microprocessors,

Theorem 1.15
For n repetitions of a subexperiment with sample space S = {s0, . . . , sm-1}, there are mn
possible observation sequences.
Example 1.37
A chip fabrication facility produces microprocessors. Each microprocessor is tested and

assigned a grade s ∈ S = {s0, . . . , s3}. A grade of sj indicates that the microprocessor will

function reliably at a maximum clock rate of sj megahertz (MHz). In testing 10

microprocessors, we use xi to denote the grade of the ith microprocessor tested. Testing 10

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microprocessors, for example, may produce an observation sequence x1x2 · · · x10 =
s3s0s3s1s2s3s0s2s2s1. The entire set of possible sequences contains 410 = 1,048,576
elements.

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