GONDAR University School of Engineering Lecture Note on Transportation Eng’g

(CEng3801) Civil Engineering Department Transport

Planning

Chapter 4. Transport Planning

Introduction

Transport planning- is planning and realization of strategies to supply the requirement of transport
services to meet the transport demand.

The formation of the nation’s transportation system has been evolutionary, not the result of a grand
plan. The system now in place is the product of many individual decisions to select projects for
construction or improvement, such as bridges, highways, tunnels, harbors, railway stations, and
airport runways.

The process for planning transportation systems should be a rational one that serves to furnish
unbiased information about the effects that the proposed transportation project will have on the
affected community and on users. For example, if noise or air pollution is a concern, the process will
examine and estimate how much additional noise or air pollution will occur if the transportation
facility is built.

The process must be flexible enough to be applicable to any transportation project or system, because
the kinds of problems that transportation engineers work on will vary over time.

The transportation planning process is not intended to furnish a decision or to give a single result that
must be followed, although it can do so in relatively simple situations. Rather, the process is intended
to provide the appropriate information to those who will be affected and those responsible for
deciding whether the transportation project should go forward.

Elements of Transportation Planning

The transportation planning elements basically comprises planning of transport systems/physical

planning and financing.

Planning of Transport Systems/physical planning

 The preparation of a structural plan for the area of which the authority (metropolitan or
local/regional) has jurisdiction

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 GONDAR University School of Engineering Lecture Note on Transportation Eng’g
(CEng3801) Civil Engineering Department Transport
Planning

 The structural plan should contain land use policies and proposals for road and rail network
and to related services; e.g. rail terminals, public transport interchange facilities, docks and
airports

Financing

 Transport was traditionally regarded as public goods.

 Transport infrastructure cost paid by public authorities

 Financial structure is tough depending on the type of infrastructure and the

administrative/political/geographical level in scope

Elements of Transportation Planning Process

The transportation planning process comprises seven basic elements, which are interrelated and not
necessarily carried out sequentially. The information acquired in one phase of the process may be
helpful in some earlier or later phase, so there is a continuity of effort that should eventually result in
a decision. The elements in the process are:

 Situation definition
 Problem definition
 Search for solutions
 Analysis of performance
 Evaluation of alternatives
 Choice of project

 Specification and construction

A. Situation Definition

The first step in the planning process is situation definition, which involves all of the activities
required to understand the situation that gave rise to the perceived need for a transportation
improvement. In this phase, the basic factors that created the present situation are described, and the
scope of the system to be studied is delineated. The present system is analyzed and its characteristics
are described. Information about the surrounding area, its people, and their travel habits may be
obtained. Previous reports and studies that may be relevant to the present situation are reviewed and
summarized.

B. Problem Definition

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(CEng3801) Civil Engineering Department Transport
Planning

The purpose of this step is to describe the problem in terms of the objectives to be accomplished by
the project and to translate those objectives into criteria that can be quantified. Objectives are
statements of purpose, such as to reduce traffic congestion; to improve safety; to maximize net
highway-user benefits; and to reduce noise. Criteria are the measures of effectiveness that can be used
to quantify the extent to which a proposed transportation project will achieve the stated objectives.
For example, the objective “to reduce traffic congestion” might use “travel time” as the measure of
effectiveness.

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Planning

Figure 4.1: Basic Elements in the Transportation Planning Process Applied to Consider the
Feasibility of a New Bridge

C. Search for Solutions

In this phase of the planning process, consideration is given to a variety of ideas, designs, locations,
and system configurations that might provide solutions to the problem. This is the brainstorming
stage, in which many options may be proposed for later testing and evaluation. Alternatives can be
proposed by any group or organization.
The transportation engineer has a variety of options available in any particular situation, and any or
all may be considered in this idea-generating phase. Among the options that might be used are
different types of transportation technology or vehicles, various system or network arrangements, and
different methods of operation. This phase also includes preliminary feasibility studies, which might
narrow the range of choices to those that appear most promising. Some data gathering, field testing,
and cost estimating may be necessary at this stage to determine the practicality and financial
feasibility of the alternatives being proposed.

D. Analysis of Performance

The purpose of performance analysis is to estimate how each of the proposed alternatives would
perform under present and future conditions. The criteria identified in the previous steps are
calculated for each transportation option. Included in this step is a determination of the investment
cost of building the transportation project, as well as annual costs for maintenance and operation. The
number of persons or vehicles that will use the system is determined, and these results, expressed in
vehicles or persons/hour, serve as the basis for project design. Other information about the use of the
system (such as trip length, travel by time of day, and vehicle occupancy) are also determined and
used in calculating user benefits for various criteria or measures of effectiveness. Environmental
effects of the transportation project (such as noise and air pollution levels and acres of land required)
are estimated. These nonuser impacts are calculated in situations where the transportation project
could have significant impacts on the community or as required by law.

E. Evaluation of Alternatives

The purpose of the evaluation phase is to determine how well each alternative will achieve the
objectives of the project as defined by the criteria. The performance data produced in the analysis

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Planning

phase are used to compute the benefits and costs that will result if the project is selected. In cases
where the results cannot be reduced to a single monetary value, a weighted ranking for each
alternative might be produced and compared with other proposed projects.
If the benefit-cost ratio result is positive, the evaluation of alternative sites requires additional
comparison of factors, both for engineering and economic feasibility and for environmental impact.

F. Choice of Project

Project selection is made after considering all the factors involved. In a simple situation, for example,
where the project has been authorized and is in the design phase, a single criterion (such as cost)
might be used and the chosen project would be the one with the lowest cost. With a more complex
project, however, many factors have to be considered, and selection is based on how the results are
perceived by those involved in decision-making. If the project involves the community, it may be
necessary to hold additional public hearings. A bond issue or referendum may be required. It is
possible that none of the alternatives will meet the criteria or standards, and additional investigations
will be necessary.

G. Specification and Construction

Once the transportation project has been selected, the project moves into a detailed design phase in
which each of the components of the facility is specified. For a transportation facility, this involves its
physical location, geometric dimensions, and structural configuration. Design plans are produced that
can be used by contractors to estimate the cost of building the project. When a construction firm is
selected, these plans will be the basis on which the project will be built.

Urban transport planning

Urban transportation planning involves the evaluation and selection of highway or transit facilities to
serve present and future land uses. For example, the construction of a new shopping center, airport, or
convention center will require additional transportation services. Also, new residential development,
office space, and industrial parks will generate additional traffic, requiring the creation or expansion
of roads and transit services.
Urban transportation planning is concerned with two separate time horizons.

The first is a short-term project emphasized to select projects that can be implemented within a one-
to three-year period. These projects are designed to provide better management of existing facilities
by making them as efficient as possible. Short-term projects involve programs such as traffic signal

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Planning

timing to improve flow, car and van pooling to reduce congestion, park-and-ride fringe parking lots to
increase transit ridership, and transit improvements.

The long term project deals with the long-range transportation needs of an area and identifies the
projects to be constructed over a 20-year period. Long-term projects involve programs such as adding
new highway elements, additional bus lines or freeway lanes, rapid transit systems and extensions, or
access roads to airports or shopping malls.

The urban transportation planning process can be carried out in terms of the procedures outlined
previously and is usually described as follows.

a) Inventory of Existing Travel and Facilities

This is the data-gathering activity in which urban travel characteristics are described for each defined
geographic unit or traffic zone within the study area. Inventories and surveys are made to determine
traffic volumes, land uses, origins and destinations of travelers, population, employment, and
economic activity. Inventories are made of existing transportation facilities, both highway and transit.
Capacity, speed, travel time, and traffic volume are determined.

b) Establishment of Goals and Objectives

A statement of goals, objectives, and standards are prepared to identify deficiencies in the existing
system, desired improvements, and what is to be achieved by the transportation improvements.

c) Generation of Alternatives

In this phase of the urban transportation planning process, the alternatives to be analyzed will be
identified. The options available to the urban transportation planner include various technologies
(LRT or BRT), network configurations of single line, two branches or geometric (radial or grid
pattern), vehicles (singly driven buses or multicar trains), operating policies (10-minute headways at
peak hours and 30-minute at off-peak hours), and organizational arrangements (private or public).

d) Estimation of Project Cost and Travel Demand

This activity in the urban transportation planning process involves two separate tasks.
The first is to determine the project cost, and the second is to estimate the amount of traffic expected
in the future. The estimation of facility cost is relatively straightforward, whereas the estimation of
future traffic flows is a complex undertaking requiring the use of mathematical models and
computers.

e) Evaluation of Alternatives
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Planning

This phase of the process is similar in concept to what was described earlier but can be complex in
practice because of the conflicting objectives and diverse groups that will be affected by an urban
transportation project.
Among the groups that could be affected are the traveling public (user), the highway or transit
agencies (operator), and the non-traveling public (community). Each of these groups will have
different objectives and viewpoints concerning how well the system performs. The traveling public
wants to improve speed, safety, and comfort; the transportation agency wishes to minimize cost; and
the community wants to preserve its lifestyle and improve or minimize environmental impacts.

f) Choice of Project

Selection of a project will be based on a process that will ultimately involve elected officials and the
public. Quite often, funds to build an urban transportation project (such as a subway system) may
involve a public referendum.

Evaluating transport alternatives

The objective of an evaluation is to furnish the appropriate information about the outcome of each
alternative so that a selection can be made. The evaluation process should be viewed as an activity in
which information relevant to the selection is available to the person or group who will make a
decision. An essential input in the process is to know what information will be important in making a
project selection.

Selecting and Measuring Evaluation Criteria

Criteria not only must be relevant to the problem but should also have other attributes. They should
be easy to measure and sensitive to changes made in each alternative. Also, it is advisable to limit the
number of criteria to those that will be most helpful in reaching a decision in order to keep the
analysis manageable for both the engineer who is doing the work and the person(s) who will act on
the result.

Criteria for Evaluating Transportation Alternatives are:

 Capital costs
 Construction
 Right of way
 Vehicles
 Maintenance costs
 Facility operating costs
 Travel time
 Total hours and cost of system travel

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Planning

 Average door-to-door speed

 Distribution of door-to-door speeds
 Vehicle operating costs
 Safety
 Social and environmental costs
 Noise
 Visual quality
 Community cohesion
 Air and water quality

Evaluation Based on Economic Criteria

Economic evaluation methods require that each measure of effectiveness be converted into monetary
units. The approach considers the total costs of each alternative, including user and facility costs, and
then to select the project that has the lowest total cost. These include facility costs for construction,
maintenance, and operation and user costs for travel time, accidents, and vehicle operations.

 The cost of a transportation facility improvement includes two components: first cost or
capital cost (engineering design, right of way, and construction) and continuing costs
(maintenance, operation, and administration).

 Three commonly used measures of user costs are included in a transportation project
evaluation: costs for vehicle operation, travel time costs, and costs of accidents, as illustrated
in Figure 3.2.

An economic evaluation of a transportation project is completed using most commonly one of the
following methods: benefit-cost ratio (BCR), or internal rate of return (IRR).

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Planning

Figure 3.2: Road User Cost Factors

Evaluation Based on Multiple Criteria

This evaluation method seeks to include measurable criteria that are not translated just in monetary
terms in addition to economic evaluation method.

Numerical ranking methods, one of multiple criteria method, require that each measure of
effectiveness be translated to an equivalent score rather than monetary unit. In addition cost-
effectiveness methods require only that each measure of effectiveness be displayed in matrix form
and it is the task of the analysts to develop relationships between various impacts and the costs
involved.

Transport planning policy Approaches

There are in practice two different types of approach in transport planning which can be adapted to
identifying objectives and related problems; objective led and problem oriented approach.

Objectives-led approach

It is a logical approach and is essential that professionals are clear on the reasons for different
solution: that is, those objectives which are to be achieved can be specified, typically by the local
authority or its elected members. These are then used to identify problems by assessing the extent to

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Planning

which current, or predicted future conditions, in the absence of new policy measures, fail to meet the
objectives.

The objectives may be economic efficiency, environmental protection, safety, accessibility,

sustainability, equity, finance, practicability, etc.

(2006)

Figure 3.3: An objectives-led structure for strategy formulation

Problem-oriented approach

The alternative problem-oriented approach is to start by defining types of problem, and to use data on
current (or predicted future) conditions to identify when and where these problems occur. This
approach starts at the second box in the flow chart in Fig. 3.3. The objectives are implicit in the
specified problems, and may never actually be stated.

Transport planning data collection

Data are an essential input to the effective planning and design of transport systems, either directly by
describing the current state of the system, or indirectly by allowing the calibration of models which
yield insights into the processes at work in the system or help to predict how the system is likely to
perform in the future with and without policy intervention.

Defining the data requirements

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Planning

The requirement for information needs to be refined into a precise specification of data requirements
in terms of the variable(s) to be studied and the hypotheses to be tested. Data is used to elaborate
cause-effect relationships to be investigated

Figure 3.4: Stages in the design and conduct of a survey

3.1.1. Sources of transport planning data

There are two sources of data for transport planning; primary sources (direct surveying data) and
secondary sources (existing data). The choice of data collection method depends on purpose of data &
budget allocated.

a. Secondary sources (existing data)

Once the data requirements have been specified, it is important to consider whether they can be met
by making use of existing data, thereby avoiding the need for a special survey. So it is the first step in
data collection. The three main sources of data are:
− Publication database
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Planning

− previous local area surveys

− data produced as a by-product of control or management system
E.g. vehicle flow past at toll point
Advantages
− saves lots of time & money
− when a survey is likely to cause disruption and annoyance to the travelling public
− it is important for political reasons to be seen to be conducting a survey
Problems/disadvantages
− (no) knowledge of how data was collected
− definitions & categories may be different
− different spatial aggregations
− disaggregation and cross classifications may not be available (privacy)
− access to raw data may be difficult/impractical (obsolete media, file formats, inadequate
documentation)
− client may want new data to be collected

b. Primary sources (direct surveying data)

Assuming that, after careful consideration of all secondary sources of data, the need for further data
collection is established, the next stage is to produce a detailed specification of this requirement. The
specification must take account of the resources available since they may seriously constrain what can
be achieved in terms of accuracy or coverage. The primary data can be collected in the following
different methods.
− Observational surveys
− Household self-completion surveys
− Telephone interview surveys
− Road side interviews/Surveys
− Household personal interview surveys
− Group discussion surveys (focus group)
− In-depth interviews
Advantages
− The data may be accurate
− Can achieve up to date (current condition) data
Disadvantages
− It is time and money consuming
− The quality of data depend on personal
− The data may biased to the interest of data collector (specially at interviews)

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3.1.2. Type of transport planning data

The types of transport planning data to be collected are:

a) Vehicular traffic flow data
b) Public transport user data
c) Pedestrian volume data
d) Cyclists and cycle facilities data
e) Spot speed data
f) Origin-Destination (OD) cordon data
g) Journey speed, travel time and delay data
h) Parking use data
i) Environmental impact data (noise and air pollution)

3.1.3. Data collection sampling methods

Data cannot be collected for the entire target population! The choice of sampling method will depend
on the objectives of the survey and perhaps on the survey technique being employed.
Sampling methods
a) Random sampling: all samples have an equal chance of being selected
 It is a theoretically attractive method
 It is impractical for a “live” events
b) Systematic sampling: select every nth unit
 The concept is easily understood, even by inexperienced staff and is therefore widely applied
in surveys of live events.
 The method is random in as much as that until the first unit is selected
 All units have equal probability of being chosen, but it is not truly random and may produce
biased results if the sequence of units has any significance
c) Stratified sampling
 It involves division of the population into groups on the basis of some characteristic and
applying a different sampling rate in each group.
 The method is usually applied when it is necessary to ensure adequate representation of a
minority
d) Cluster sampling
 It involves selecting groups of adjacent units (e.g. addresses on a street or a group of vehicles
following one another in a traffic stream)
 This technique usually results in increased survey efficiency

Introduction to Transport Modelling

3.1.4. Introduction

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Planning

Models are simplified representations of reality which can be used to explore the consequences of
particular policies or strategies. They are deliberately simplified in order to keep them manageable
and to avoid extraneous detail while hopefully encapsulating the important (determining) features of
the system of interest.

The reason for using models is that estimates can be made of likely outcomes more quickly and at
lower cost and risk than would be possible through implementation and monitoring.

Models can be used in a variety of ways.

1) To predict future conditions in the absence of policy intervention-thus providing an

assessment of the extent to which conditions will deteriorate, or ameliorate, and giving an
indication of the conditions which are likely to prevail at some future date.
2) To predict future conditions on the assumption that each of a series of specified policies or
designs is implemented- thus helping to establish the extent of any benefits which can be
attributed to each one and thus in turn providing the basis for an appraisal of their relative
costs and benefits.
3) To test the performance of a given policy intervention in each of a series of imagined futures-
thus indicating its 'robustness' in the face of future uncertainty.
4) To produce very short-term forecasts as part of an on-line management or control system such
as might be found in a sophisticated area traffic control system.

Models range in sophistication from simple equations encapsulating empirical relationships which
can be worked out on the back of an envelope, on a calculator or in a spreadsheet, through to suites of
computer programs each involving hundreds of lines of code to perform sophisticated mathematical
functions or detailed simulations.

Models can be

 quantitative (with numbers) or qualitative (without)

 static (relating to states or conditions) or dynamic (relating to processes)
 causal (why something happens) or simply correlative
 aggregate or disaggregate
 transparent (to aid understanding or explanation) or a black box
 predictive (what will happen) or prescriptive (what should happen)

 empirical (based directly on data) or synthetic (based on a relationship derived from the data)

Advantages of Modelling

 help visualize and understand problems

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Planning

 important part of decision-making processes

 facilitate the discussion of assumptions and are (can be), therefore, more transparent than
mental models

 assist in the analysis of risk and uncertainty

 models can provide important inputs to the appraisal process

Disadvantages of Modelling

 can be opaque

 could alienate planning processes

 often require a good deal of expensive data

 May influence problem definition

Purpose of a model

 to help understand how the system works

 to help explain or communicate how the system works

 to help predict usage and performance of the system in various possible future circumstances

 to help design or manage facilities and services

 to help evaluate possible investment options

The choice of method of modelling depends on: the purpose of the exercise, the level of detail and
accuracy required and the resources available.

3.1.5. Transport Modelling

Transport model is a simplified mathematical representation of a small part of the real world, aiming
at describing and explaining travel behavior and visualizing the amount and patterns of transport.

The bases of mathematical model are the data for land use and transport system, together with an
understanding of human behavior.

Development and short history of transport model

 1960 – 1975: The first complete model in use; USA and Europe

 Driving force

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Planning

 The increased traffic volume

 Theoretical development

 The computer (important prerequisites)

 Focus

 Traffic growth/forecasts; How large roads do we need?

 1975 – 1985: models got a bad reputation in many countries, focuses was on traffic safety and
environmental conditions- but still research in universities - theoretical development

 1985 – 1995: Revival of models—focus on getting traffic data to calculate safety and env’tal
effects of different projects /traffic plans

Uses in today transport model

 Providing traffic data for the future; thus understanding of the challenges (problems) to come;
such as

 Traffic Congestion and delay

 Traffic accident

 Env’tal condition (air pollution and noise)

 Parking difficulties

 Future transport costs for people and for business/industry

 Accessibility and mobility, etc

 Analyzing the effect of alternative traffic plans/projects

 Providing traffic data for “Cost-Benefit-Analysis”

 Providing traffic data for calculating the development of traffic accidents and environmental
conditions

Networks and Zones in Transport Modelling

In principle greater accuracy in transport modelling could be achieved using these systems.

Definition

Networks

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 It is graphical representations of the transport system.

 It usually represented as a set of zones and links.

 It encompasses large enough area to study all significant impacts and influences.

Figure 3.5: Networks of travel

Zones

 It is reduction of the trip matrix into manageable proportions.

 Size of zones: compromise between accuracy and economy.

 Boundaries chosen to reflect

− zones for which data is available, e.g. enumeration districts or political units
− zones used in previous studies

 It distinguishes between “internal zones” in the study area bounded by external cordon and
“external zones” covering the rest of the world.

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Figure3.6: Ideal Zones of Addis Ababa

An ideal Zone is

− Consistent with land use and population characteristics

− Divided by distinct barriers to movement (e.g. rivers)

− Centered around points of access to transport facilities (e.g. stations)

− Roughly equal size

− “Hierarchical Zoning Systems”

Demand for Transport

Travel demand is expressed as the number of persons or vehicles per unit time that can be expected to
travel on a given segment of a transportation system under a set of given land-use, socioeconomic,
and environmental conditions.

Demand for transport is a base for transport model

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Demand is the amount of a product or service desired at a particular price in a given time period. This
is shown graphically in a demand curve or numerically in a demand schedule.

Figure 3.6: Demand curve

Demand for transport (Qi) is typically taken to be a function of:

 The price of the service (Pi)

 The price of other services (Pn)

 The quality of the service (e.g. journey time, service frequency, rolling stock quality) (Si)

 The quality of other services (Sn)

 Income (Y)

Qi = f(Pi, Pn, Si, Sn, Y)

What makes transport different from other products?

 Transport is a derived demand (not basic need?)

 Transport as a whole is a normal good (ΔQ > 0) but some public transport modes may be
inferior goods (ΔQ < 0)

 Demand varies by:

 Socio-economic characteristics of passengers

 Journey purpose

 Time of day/day of week/time of year

Four Stage Model (fsm)

The components of four stage model in transport modelling are:

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Planning

1. Trip Generation (production and attraction): models calculate the number of trips generated
by (Oi-origin) and attracted to (Dj-destination) each zone in the study area

2. Trip Distribution: models calculate the trip pattern connecting trip productions and
attractions

3. Mode Choice: models distribute trips from one origin (zone) to a destination to the different
modes of transport

4. Traffic Assignment: car trips are distributed to the road network and public transport trips
distributed to the public transport network

The inputs for these models include zones and networks, base year travel data and future planning
data.

Figure 3.7: Four stage model

Some definitions in common use

 “journey” – complete excursion (out and back)

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Planning

 “trip” or “journey leg” – a one way journey

 “origin” - place where the trip started

 “destination” - place where the trip ended

 “home-based trip” – trip having origin or destination at the trip-maker’s home

 HBW: Home-based work

 HBO: Home-based other

 “non home-based” - all other trips (NHB)

 mode – means of transport used for the trip or trip stage

 main mode – a multimode‟ trip is normally the one used for the longest distance

 trip purpose - with respect to the destination, e.g. work, business trip, leisure, shopping,
education
 O-D matrix - matrix of trips from particular origins to particular destinations

Figure 3.8: fsm in a nutshell

[Link]. Trip Generation

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Planning

Trip generation is the process of determining the number of trips that will begin or end in each traffic
analysis zone within a study area. Since the trips are determined without regard to destination, they
are referred to as trip ends. Each trip has two ends, and these are described in terms of trip purpose, or
whether the trips are either produced by a traffic zone or attracted to a traffic zone. For example, a
home-to-work trip would be considered to have a trip end produced in the home zone and attracted to
the work zone.

Trip generation analysis has two functions: (1) to develop a relationship between trip end production
or attraction and land use and (2) to use the relationship to estimate the number of trips generated at
some future date under a new set of land use conditions.

Trip purpose

It has been found in practice that better trip generation models can be obtained if trips by different
purposes are identified and modeled separately. In the case of HB trips, five categories have been
usually employed:

− Trips to work;
− Trips to school or colleges (education trips);
− Social trips;
− Recreational trips; and
− Other trips.

The first two trips are usually called compulsory (mandatory) trips and all the others are called
discretionary (optional) trips. The latter category encompasses all trips made for less routine
purposes, such as health, bureaucracy (need to obtain a passport or a certificate) and trips made as an
accompanying person. NHB trips are normally not separated because they only amount to 15 - 20%
of all trips.

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Planning

Figure 3.8: Trip production matrix

Factors affecting trip production

 At the HH level, the following are used in several studies

 Income – the higher the income the higher is the trip generation rate

 Car ownership – car owning household will generate more trips than a non car owning
household and also the more cars there are in the household, the more the number of trips
generated.

 Household structure (number of employed persons)

 Family size – the bigger the family, the more trips there are likely to be generated.

 At an individual level, the following can be added to the above

 age

 gender

 employments condition

Factors affecting trip attraction

− Roofed space available for industrial, commercial and other services

− Zonal employment, categorized in different groups (especially public attractive and non-
public attractive employment)
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− Shopping center

− schools, universities

− entertainment (theaters, cinemas, sport arenas etc)

Growth Factor Modelling

Since the early 1950’s several techniques have been proposed to model trip generation. From the
range of techniques available to do trip generations include:

 expansion factors

 category analysis

 regression analysis

 discrete choice models

The common and easiest method of modelling trip generation is expansion factor (growth factor)
method. The only problem of this method is the estimation of growth factor, Gi, the rest is trivial.

If we already know trip rates for a given period, they can be adjusted for future periods using an
expansion or growth factor

The expansion factor method has advantages in that it is very simple but:

 It requires good base year data for all zones and reliable expansion factors

 It is generally not sensitive to causal or policy changes.

The expansion factor can be a function of population, car ownership, income etc.

Where: P – population, I – income and C – car ownership

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Index, d = design year and C = current year

Example: The current and future zone population conditions on a route x-y are given as:

 Current condition,

− 250 household without car

− 250 household with one car

− 50 household with two car

 Future condition

− 600 household with one car

 If the trip production rate are 2.5, 6 and 10 for non-car owner, one car owner and 2 car owner
respectively; calculate the growth factor and the future trip (assume a trip rate is constant)

Solution:

 Trip production in Current condition,

Oi = 250*2.5 + 250*6 + 50*10 = 2625 trips/day

 Growth factor,

Gi = 600/250 = 2.4

^
O
 Future trip, = O i * 2.4 = 2625*2.4 = 6300 trips/day

[Link]. Trip Distribution

Trip Generations and attractions provide an idea of level of trip of trip making in the study area
whereas Trip Distribution – provide a better idea on the pattern of trip making, from where to where
do trips take place.

Trip distribution is a process by which the trips generated in one zone are allocated to other zones in
the study area. These trips may be within the study area (internal – internal) or between the study area
and areas outside the study area (internal – external).

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For example, if the trip generation analysis results in an estimate of 200 HBW trips in zone 10, then
the trip distribution analysis would determine how many of these trips would be made between zone
10 and all the other internal zones.

In addition, the trip distribution process considers internal-external trips (or vice versa) where one end
of the trip is within the study area and the other end is outside the study area.

Methods

 Two Types of Estimation

 Updating an existing O-D matrix, i.e. initial Tij’s are known, future Oi and Dj may be known
as well

 sampling fraction to gross up sample surveys

 growth factor with singly constrained solution

 growth factor with doubly constrained solution (e.g. the Furness method)

 using traffic flow count data

 Creating an O-D matrix from zonal origins or destinations, i.e. Oi and Dj are known but initial
Tij’s are unknown

 gravity model

Expansion factor methods

Trip distribution can be computed when the only data available are the origins and destinations
between each zone for the current or base year and the trip generation values for each zone for the
future year. Growth factor models are used primarily to distribute trips between zones in the study
area and zones in cities external to the study area. Since they rely upon an existing O-D matrix, they
cannot be used to forecast traffic between zones where no traffic currently exists. Further, the only
measure of travel friction is the amount of current travel. Thus, the growth factor method cannot
reflect changes in travel time between zones, as does the gravity model.

 Make use of the patterns that exist in an old matrix for the study area

 Are simple and easy to understand

 Can use a ‘Uniform Growth Factor’ or different ‘Zone Growth Factors’

 Rely very heavily on patterns in the old matrix so not suitable for very long term planning

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 Take no account of changing costs, policies etc unless reflected by the growth factors

 Suffer from empty cell problem, i.e. if a cell is empty (Tij = 0), growth factor methods cannot
do anything to the empty cell

Exercise: Given the base year initial matrix below, estimate the forecast year matrix if the total trips
would increase to 340.

Tij x y z sum
x 10 23 20 53
y 30 11 26 67
z 17 24 9 50
sum 57 58 55 170

Gravity models

The most widely used and documented trip distribution model is the gravity model, which states that
the number of trips between two zones is directly proportional to the number of trip attractions
generated by the zone of destination and inversely proportional to a function of time of travel between
the two zones.

 most popular method from the so-called synthetic distribution methods which use rules based
on observed data for trip distribution

 especially useful when there is no reliable prior matrix

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Origins

Newton’s Law of Gravity

‘Any particle of matter in the universe attracts any other with a force varying directly as the product
of the masses and inversely as the square of the distance between them’: Isaac Newton

Figure 3.9: Newton’s law of gravity

 Production and Attraction

 O-D Matrix, Production and Attraction

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A mathematical model developed and used to forecast the passenger traffic on the railroad line he was
responsible for

[Link]. Mode Choice (Mode Split)

Mode choice is that aspect of the demand analysis process that determines the number (or percentage)
of trips between zones that are made by private mode (automobile) and by public transport mode
(transit).

The selection of one mode or another is a complex process that depends on factors such as the
traveler’s income, the availability of transit service or auto ownership, and the relative advantages of
each mode in terms of travel time, cost, comfort, convenience, and safety. Mode choice models
attempt to replicate the relevant characteristics of the traveler, the transportation system, and the trip
itself, such that a realistic estimate of the number of trips by each mode for each zonal pair is
obtained.

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Planning

Mode choice models

 sometimes developed as a separate (stand alone) component of the four stage model

 sometimes combined with distribution models

 sometimes defined to estimate main mode split (private versus public) with sub-mode split
determined in the public transport assignment

 Mode choice models can be calibrated to disaggregate, semi-aggregate or aggregate data

 Disaggregate models (second – generation model) are calibrated are based on observed
choices made at the level of the individual traveller.

 Semi-aggregate and aggregate models are calibrated to aggregate market share data either
based on observed relations for groups of travelers or on average relations at a zonal level.

 Disaggregate models are more likely to be estimated for a specific purpose, whereas aggregate
models are more likely to use behavioral parameters transferred from elsewhere.

 Disaggregate models have their foundations in discrete choice analysis:

 Branch of behavioral studies which use mathematical models to explain, forecast and evaluate
decision makers’ choices.

 The key features of the methodology are

 Focus on the decision-maker

 A discrete dependent variable (0-1, yes-no)

Disaggregate methods pros and cons

Pros

 Behaviorally oriented analysis of choice

 Variation in data/avoids averaging

 Segmentation analysis

 Analysis of relative values

 Cons

 May need large samples

 Can be correlation/little variation problems

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 Forecasting problems (data, perceptions, habit)

 Can become complex

The decision-maker

 In discrete choice models the unit of observation is the choice make by the decision-maker

 Decision-maker can be

 an individual

 a household

 a company or

 a government

 In the context of mode choice models

 it is usually assumed that the decision-maker is the individual

 the decision-maker is faced with a choice between available modes (each described in
terms of its attributes)

Factors Influencing the Choice of Mode

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Concept of Utility

In general, discrete choice model postulate that:

“The probability of individuals choosing a given option is a function of their socioeconomic

characteristics and the relative attractiveness of the option.”

To represent the attractiveness of the alternatives the concept of utility (which is a convenient
theoretical construct, tautologically defined as what the individual seeks to maximize) is used. Utility
function measures the degree of satisfaction that people derive from their choices; and disutility
function: represents generalized costs of each choice.

Generalized Cost

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Generalized time

The Logit Model

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Planning

The Logit model is the most commonly used discrete choice model in determining the probability of
individual choosing one of different alternatives.

Utility Maximization - Most common decision rule adopted. Assumes that individuals trade-off one
attribute against another and that the attractiveness of a choice-alternative can be reduced to a single
index known as utility (U)

Utility can be viewed as the negative of generalized cost but it is important to note that it has no
‘tangible’ scale (i.e. it is not in time or money units)

 Decision rules – how utility maximization are choices made?

 If just two alternatives described solely in terms of time (T) and cost (C), and a linear-
additive utility function with weights (coefficients) αT and αC are provided

 αT or αC could vary between alternatives or be the same

 Coefficients of U are estimated to generate probabilities in the Logit model that best fit the
actual choices in the data on which the model is estimated.

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Planning

 Utility coefficients may be negative/positive

 “bad” (e.g. time and cost) have negative coefficients

 “good” (e.g. frequency) have positive coefficient

Example on Logit model

Utility functions for auto and transit is given as:

U = ak– 0.35t1 – 0.08t2 – 0.005c

Where:

 ak = mode specific variable (error consideration)

 t1 = total travel time (minutes)

 t2 = waiting time (minutes)

 c = cost (cents)

Travel characteristics between two zones:

Variable Auto Transit

ak -0.46 -0.07
t1 20 30
t2 8 6
c 320 100

Determine the probability of selection of auto and transit.

Solution

Uauto = -0.46 – 0.35(20) – 0.08(8) – 0.005(320) = -9.70

Utransit = -0.07 – 0.35(30) – 0.08(6) – 0.005(100) = -11.55

Logit Model:

p(auto) = ___eUa __ = _____e-9.70 ____ = 0.86

eUa + eUt e-9.70 + e-11.55
p(transit) = ___eUt __ = _____e-11.55 ____ = 0.14
eUa + eUt e-9.70 + e-11.55

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[Link]. Traffic Assignment

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