Probability Lesson
Name: Siel Snowden and Harley Michael
Grade: 3rd grade
Lesson Title/Topic: Probability and graphing
NCTM Standards: Data analysis and probability
Common Core Standards:
CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.6.SP.B.5
Summarize numerical data sets in relation to their context
Practice Standards
CCSS.MATH.PRACTICE.MP2 Reason abstractly and quantitatively.
Learning Objectives (measurable):
1. SWBAT define probability as how likely something is to happen
2. SWBAT explain the relationship between quantity and probability (e.g., There are
MORE blue M&Ms than red M&Ms, so I am MORE likely to randomly pick a blue M&M.)
3. SWBAT explain the difference between probability and practice (i.e. what is MOST
LIKELY to happen versus what ACTUALLY happens)
4. SWBAT complete a bar graph that represents probability and practice and analyze the
results of the activity by comparing their results with classmates to determine data trends
Vocabulary:
1. Probability: how likely something is to happen
2. Practice: what actually happens
3. Random selection: luck, choosing something without thinking about it
4. Average: the comparison of every member of the classs data, the overall trend
Probing questions:
1. How do visual representations help students to understand the concept of probability?
2. When might students need to understand the idea of probability in their daily lives?
3. How can teachers explain probability in a way that is relatable to students so that they
can grasp the concept more clearly?
Overview
This lesson is designed to introduce third-graders to the concept of probability through
an engaging, hands-on activity. They will learn the difference between probability and practice
and become familiar with the idea of random selection and will practice displaying data in a bar
graph.
Materials (for a class of 20):
1. 220 M&Ms (110 blue, 66 red, 33 green, and 11 yellow) divided among 21
nontransparent cups so that each cup contains 10 blue, 6 red, 3 green, and 1 yellow
M&M
2. 10 copies of the bar graph chart (see attachment) and blue, red, green, and yellow
colored pencils for each pair of students
3. Document camera
Anticipatory Set:
1. Teacher will place a covered cup of M&Ms between every pair of students without telling
them what is inside. The teacher will instruct students not to look at or touch their cups.
Then the teacher will place her own cup underneath the document camera and ask
students to guess what is inside. Students will guess a few times before the teacher
uncovers her cup and shows them that there are M&Ms
2. Students will be like, OMG, YAY, CANDY! This will totally grab their attention and
interest them in the lesson.
3. Teacher will say, Lets count how many M&Ms are in the cup. (20)
4. Teacher will say, Lets sort the M&Ms to see how many of each color there are (10 blue,
6 red, 3 green, and 1 yellow)
Method/Procedures
Modeling
1. Teacher will ask students if anyone knows what probability means. She will explain that
probability means how likely something is to happen. Students will repeat the word
probability.
2. Teacher will say, Lets say I want to pick an M&M from the cup without looking. What is
the probability of picking each color? Is there a greater probability of picking a blue M&M
or a red M&M? Students will discuss with their partners for 30 seconds and share their
answers with the class.
3. Teacher will say, Okay, so does everyone agree that MORE blue M&Ms means there is
a greater probability--that you are MORE likely--to pick a blue one than a red one?
Students will agree.
4. Teacher will say, Lets talk about how to WRITE probability. We can write probability as
a fraction. For blue, we write 10/20. Can anyone reduce this fraction? Right, . That
means that for every two M&Ms you pick, it is most likely that 1 of them will be blue. Lets
find the probability of picking the other colors. [repeat for red, green, and yellow]
5. Students will color in the probability bars of their graph to represent the number of each
color of M&M in their cups and write the probability as fractions underneath
Guided Practice
1. Teacher will explain the activity-- We know that probability means what is MOST
LIKELY to happen, right? But real life isnt always exact, so to find out what will
ACTUALLY happen, we have to do the experiment. This is called practice. Then, we
will see if our results in practice are similar to the probabilities we wrote down.
2. In pairs, students will take turns randomly selecting an M&M from the cup and replacing
it. Each time they select one, they will color in a bar on their graph that represents the
color they picked. They will repeat this 20 times.
3. Students will compare their in practice graphs to their probability graphs and discuss
differences. Are they mostly the same, or are their any big differences?
4. Pairs will take turns sharing their results with the class (e.g. We drew 8 blue M&Ms, 6
red M&Ms, 3 green M&Ms, and 3 yellow M&Ms.) Teacher will make a large chart of
each groups results. At the end, the class and teacher will work together to calculate the
average (mean) results for each color.
5. Students can eat their M&Ms. Each student gets 10.
Independent Practice
1. Students will independently complete a writing activity at the end of the lesson: How did
you and your partners in practice results compare to the probability? How did the class
average compare? Which was closer to the probability? Why do you think that is?
Closure:
The teacher will remind students, Today, we learned about probability. She will call on
students to answer What is probability?, What is in practice?, and What is the average?
Assessment/Check for Understanding:
During the activity, the teacher will monitor students during the activity to see how well
they understand. Students will answer questions during the whole-class portions of the activity.
Students will turn in their graphs and writing activities so that the teacher can see how much
they understand about finding probability, writing probability, and comparing in practice results
with probability.
Accommodations
1. Students with math disabilities can complete a smaller chart and work with a smaller
number of M&Ms in order to reduce the magnitude of each calculation necessary.
2. Students who are ready for more advanced mathematical concepts can be asked to
apply their probabilities to a larger number of M&Ms--based on the probabilities you
calculated, how many M&Ms of each color are there in a bag of 200 M&Ms if the
proportions of each color are the same?
Extensions:
1. Students can use the probability chart for this lesson to make predictions about anything
(the weather, the school lunch, etc) and then graph their observations and compare
them to their predictions.
2. Students can learn about finding probabilities within a small sample to represent a larger
scale probability, such as the ratio of M&Ms in a bag of 500 M&Ms. Students can take a
sample of 50 M&Ms from the bag and determine the ratio of colors and then make
predictions about the bag of 500 M&Ms based on that sample. Then, as a class, they
can count the entire bag and find out how accurate their predictions were.
Literature:
"Although probability does not appear as a major topic until seventh grade, it is critical to begin
early with notions of chance and fairness." (Van de Walle, Teaching Student-Centered
Mathematics, p. 455, 2013). As Van de Walle suggests, this lesson introduces third grade
student to the basic concepts of probability, which will help them to develop an instinctive sense
about probabilities, fairness, and the likelihood of a given outcome. This fun, hands-on activity
helps students to build a foundation on which they will later develop more complex
understandings related to probability.
References:
This lesson and all associated materials were developed and are the property of Siel Snowden
and Harley Michael.
