Two years of a falling Nifty feels rare. Since 1998 it has happened at 71 month-ends, and three years later the index was higher in 70 of them. Our founder on why the flat years are the hard part.
The Nifty is lower than it was two years ago. 14 Oct 2024: 25,128. 14 Oct 2026: 22,623. That is -10.0%. It feels rare. It isn't. Since 1998 there have been 71 month-ends when the Nifty sat below its level of two years earlier, in 6 separate episodes. What happened next (median): Next 1 year → +27.7% Next 3 years → +63.2% Next 5 years → +112.6% From any month-end, the same medians are +11.1%, +37.4% and +77.1%. Three years later, the Nifty was higher in 70 of those 71 cases. Five years later, also 70 of 71. This is not a forecast. Six episodes is a small sample, and two of them (2001-2003 and 2008-2010) supply more than half of the 71 months. One likely reason: prices can stall while earnings keep growing. The market gets cheaper by standing still. That is exactly what happened this time: Nifty price, last 2 years → -10.0% Nifty earnings, last 2 years → +10.0% Falls are loud. Flat years are quiet. The quiet ones are where most people give up. Which is harder for you to sit through: a sharp 20% fall or two years of nothing? #Nifty #Investing #StockMarketIndia