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Full-Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest
Scientific reportage on what we know and don’t know about the mega-earthquake predicted to hit the Pacific Northwest Scientists have identified Seattle, Portland, and Vancouver as the urban centers of what will be the biggest earthquake—the Really Big One—in the continental United States. A quake will happen—in fact, it’s actually overdue. The Cascadia subduction zone is 750 miles long, running along the Pacific coast from Northern California up to southern British Columbia. In this fascinating book, The Seattle Times science reporter Sandi Doughton introduces readers to the scientists who are dedicated to understanding the way the earth moves and describes what patterns can be identified and how prepared (or not) people are. With a 100% chance of a mega-quake hitting the Pacific Northwest, this fascinating book reports on the scientists who are trying to understand when, where, and just how big The Big One will be.
290 pages, Kindle Edition
First published January 1, 2013
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Displaying 1 - 30 of 129 reviews
September 7, 2015
Totally engrossing, and apocalyptic reality for this fan of apocalyptic fiction!
As a native of the Pacific Northwest I was fascinated by the science of this book. I am very impressed that they were able to pinpoint the date of the last cataclysmic earthquake and tsunami on the Cascadia fault, off the Washington coastline, which they now know occurred on January 26, 1700. The Native Americans who were the only residents here at that time had only an oral history of the tsunami, but the Japanese had an extensive written history at that time and they have a record of being hit by an "orphan tsunami" (one without an associated earthquake) on January 27th of that year, a tsunami that traveled all the way across the Pacific Ocean from the Cascadia earthquake the day before. Also, they have been able to date when the trees of the Copalis Ghost Forest died from a sudden submersion in salt water, due to the land mass dropping, and they can tell they died in the winter of 1699-1700.
They have also excavated geological evidence along the coast of multiple previous quakes and tsunamis on this fault, so another one is going to happen in the future. We just don't know exactly when, though the average is every 500 years, give or take a couple hundred. It has been 315 years now.
I read this book on a short vacation to the Washington coast, and annoyed my husband the entire time by telling him of the cataclysm and what we would have to do if we felt a huge earthquake while we were there, pointing out what the wave would cover and where we would need to run in the short time we had.
Information on the inland faults running through Western Washington is also given, the faults involved in the quakes of 1949, 1965, and 2001.
As a native of the Pacific Northwest I was fascinated by the science of this book. I am very impressed that they were able to pinpoint the date of the last cataclysmic earthquake and tsunami on the Cascadia fault, off the Washington coastline, which they now know occurred on January 26, 1700. The Native Americans who were the only residents here at that time had only an oral history of the tsunami, but the Japanese had an extensive written history at that time and they have a record of being hit by an "orphan tsunami" (one without an associated earthquake) on January 27th of that year, a tsunami that traveled all the way across the Pacific Ocean from the Cascadia earthquake the day before. Also, they have been able to date when the trees of the Copalis Ghost Forest died from a sudden submersion in salt water, due to the land mass dropping, and they can tell they died in the winter of 1699-1700.
They have also excavated geological evidence along the coast of multiple previous quakes and tsunamis on this fault, so another one is going to happen in the future. We just don't know exactly when, though the average is every 500 years, give or take a couple hundred. It has been 315 years now.
I read this book on a short vacation to the Washington coast, and annoyed my husband the entire time by telling him of the cataclysm and what we would have to do if we felt a huge earthquake while we were there, pointing out what the wave would cover and where we would need to run in the short time we had.
Information on the inland faults running through Western Washington is also given, the faults involved in the quakes of 1949, 1965, and 2001.
March 18, 2018
Sometimes I seriously don't know why I read stuff like this - the geology and history are absolutely fascinating and I could not put it down, but it's also completely terrifying.
Basically, we are all like minuscule waterbugs, skating around on sheets of floating rock over a constantly (in geological time/terms) moving sea of shifting, molten rock, that at any moment could belch us into oblivion. Yay.
Basically, we are all like minuscule waterbugs, skating around on sheets of floating rock over a constantly (in geological time/terms) moving sea of shifting, molten rock, that at any moment could belch us into oblivion. Yay.
July 30, 2014
The title is a bit "ripped from the History channel" in its hyperbole, but look past it for a thorough overview of seismology in the Pacific Northwest. Doughton is a science writer for "The Seattle Times" and this is an informative, enjoyable read. She does an excellent job laying the foundation of geologists discovering the formidable seismic history of our region. Did you know that a German meteoroloist named Wegener first proposed the plate tectonic theory in 1912, but was shamed and ridiculed by the "experts"?
After presenting this foundation of discovery up to the present day, she presents us with the risks for "the Big One" and how it will affect our cities and our lives. There actually is a potential for different big ones, if you live in Seattle - a fault system there is not necessarily triggered by the Cascadia subduction zone.
Overall, her theme - and the geologists she reports on - is that we need to take this threat seriously. The lesson from Japan, which is considered the best prepared nation for seismic events, is that the Pacific NW is inadequately prepared on almost every level. In part, this is because we are late to believe we have the potential for serious earthquakes in our region. But we are also dawdling with measures that could save lives, now that we understand the risks.
After presenting this foundation of discovery up to the present day, she presents us with the risks for "the Big One" and how it will affect our cities and our lives. There actually is a potential for different big ones, if you live in Seattle - a fault system there is not necessarily triggered by the Cascadia subduction zone.
Overall, her theme - and the geologists she reports on - is that we need to take this threat seriously. The lesson from Japan, which is considered the best prepared nation for seismic events, is that the Pacific NW is inadequately prepared on almost every level. In part, this is because we are late to believe we have the potential for serious earthquakes in our region. But we are also dawdling with measures that could save lives, now that we understand the risks.
December 3, 2017
http://www.oregonlive.com/books/index...
Having experienced Alaska's 1964 Good Friday earthquake while stationed at Elmendorf Air Force Base near Anchorage, I have long been interested in the related geology. Doughton's research significantly expanded my knowledge, in a sobering way. Her chapters on the underwater evidence were particularly informative.
Having experienced Alaska's 1964 Good Friday earthquake while stationed at Elmendorf Air Force Base near Anchorage, I have long been interested in the related geology. Doughton's research significantly expanded my knowledge, in a sobering way. Her chapters on the underwater evidence were particularly informative.
March 9, 2017
Less sensationalist and more geologically detailed than the title implies, which is a welcome surprise. A good, important book for this region. One star removed from an otherwise perfect rating for being too Seattle-centric.
November 16, 2017
Completed (11/15/17): This is a lot more science-oriented than it looks. Excellent read.
To-Read (10/11/17): I like to read about things that legit terrify me. :D
ALSO unrelated, but since I was scrolling for gifs for "scared" one of my favorite ships popped up.
Castiel is eye-sexing up Dean ;)
To-Read (10/11/17): I like to read about things that legit terrify me. :D
ALSO unrelated, but since I was scrolling for gifs for "scared" one of my favorite ships popped up.
March 8, 2022
Until a few decades ago, Seattlelites could read about earthquakes down in California safe in the knowledge that no serious seismic activity would cause them to spill their coffee or make books to fall from the shelves in their bookstores. Today the Pacific Northwest lives with the unwelcome knowledge that whilst earthquakes there might be less frequent, they have the potential to be of the most devastating kind, hence the title.
A great deal of Washington state is criss crossed by fault lines hidden beneath forests which modern technology has now discovered. In addition, devastating tsunamis have struck before and will again, the most recent apparently in January 1700 as identified from Japanese records which have enabled the day and time to be pinpointed.
The author writes in a very readable style on the subject, including the steps taken, and the many steps not taken, to protect from the next big one which could be tomorrow or in a hundred years - suffice it to say a big one is probably overdue. It seems if it happens, major highways, and water and sewage systems could be out of action for a year. Japan treats seismic activity as a national security threat, and despite its better preparedness was still caught off guard by the magnitude of the earthquake causing the 2011 tsunami.
A great read if this kind of thing interests you or you live in the region.
A great deal of Washington state is criss crossed by fault lines hidden beneath forests which modern technology has now discovered. In addition, devastating tsunamis have struck before and will again, the most recent apparently in January 1700 as identified from Japanese records which have enabled the day and time to be pinpointed.
The author writes in a very readable style on the subject, including the steps taken, and the many steps not taken, to protect from the next big one which could be tomorrow or in a hundred years - suffice it to say a big one is probably overdue. It seems if it happens, major highways, and water and sewage systems could be out of action for a year. Japan treats seismic activity as a national security threat, and despite its better preparedness was still caught off guard by the magnitude of the earthquake causing the 2011 tsunami.
A great read if this kind of thing interests you or you live in the region.
August 16, 2013
Earthquake science is a rapidly changing field. New information is coming in at an amazing rate. Cascadia's Fault: The Coming Earthquake and Tsunami That Could Devastate North America was published in May 2011. Full-Rip 9.0 in June of 2013. I found both books fascinating and hope this topic is revisited in another 2 or 3 years. Both cover similar ground with Full-Rip focused largely on the Seattle area and Cascadia's Fault mostly in California and Oregon. I enjoyed the earlier book more, probably because my own neighborhood was featured in many chapters. However, if you want the the most up to date information, or live in the Seattle area, go with Full-Rip 9.0.
October 8, 2015
This really excellent book covers history, science and preparedness for earthquakes and tsunamis in the Pacific Northwest region. From the history, I loved the way they solved, down to the hour, the last major earthquake (magnitude 8.7 to 9.2) in the area. Color images would have been nice. Highly recommended!
November 3, 2019
I grew up in earthquake country and later lived in California, but the scariest earthquake I've experienced was the M5.6 1993 Portland area earthquake. It occurred before sunrise while I walked to work on a street lined with old, 3- and 4-story unreinforced masonry buildings.
That earthquake was a reminder that the Pacific Northwest is earthquake country, too. And unfortunately, many buildings and alot of its infrastructure aren't earthquake ready. Full-Rip 9.0 describes the types of earthquakes that occur in Pacific Northwest (subduction) and the expected effects of a large, catastrophic earthquake. It's not good.
Doughton points to the 2011 Japan earthquake and resulting tsunami that caused widespread damage and loss of life. She suggests that if a country as well-prepared for earthquakes as Japan can experience that extent of destruction then the Pacific Northwest can expect even worse.
The somewhat newfound realization that the Pacific Northwest is likely due for a cataclysmic earthquake has been the subject of several recent articles:
Salon: The Great Quake and the Great Drowning
https://slate.com/technology/2015/09/...
The New Yorker: The Really Big One
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...
Vice.com - Five Minutes: What the first five minutes of the biggest quake ever to hit the continental US will feel like to those on the ground.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8q...
I found Full-Rip 9.0 fascinating and highly recommend it.
That earthquake was a reminder that the Pacific Northwest is earthquake country, too. And unfortunately, many buildings and alot of its infrastructure aren't earthquake ready. Full-Rip 9.0 describes the types of earthquakes that occur in Pacific Northwest (subduction) and the expected effects of a large, catastrophic earthquake. It's not good.
Doughton points to the 2011 Japan earthquake and resulting tsunami that caused widespread damage and loss of life. She suggests that if a country as well-prepared for earthquakes as Japan can experience that extent of destruction then the Pacific Northwest can expect even worse.
The somewhat newfound realization that the Pacific Northwest is likely due for a cataclysmic earthquake has been the subject of several recent articles:
Salon: The Great Quake and the Great Drowning
https://slate.com/technology/2015/09/...
The New Yorker: The Really Big One
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...
Vice.com - Five Minutes: What the first five minutes of the biggest quake ever to hit the continental US will feel like to those on the ground.
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/8q...
I found Full-Rip 9.0 fascinating and highly recommend it.
June 17, 2019
I really enjoyed reading this and feel like it helped reduce my anxiety about potential earthquakes by explaining risks, history and probabilities really well. It definitely lost some stars for being completely dismissive of native folks whose stories/memories are the best record of earthquake history in this area.
SPL 2019 book bingo: set in the Northwest
SPL 2019 book bingo: set in the Northwest
September 29, 2016
This sat on my shelf for months, taunting me. I'm terrified of the Big One (and have the gallons of emergency water & food in the basement to prove it!). After Mark enthusiastically reviewed it, I decided to try. First pages awakened all my nascent earthquake fears. When I finally decided that my risk of being in the Big One was entirely unaffected by whether or not I read this book, I finally continued.
It's great. I had no idea so many different sciences measured aspects of earthquakes past, present and future. This was a fascinating (though still sobering) read and I'm likely going to re-read it (and I'll bee mining the resources for my info to help me and my family get through the Big One).
Read this, you won't regret it!
It's great. I had no idea so many different sciences measured aspects of earthquakes past, present and future. This was a fascinating (though still sobering) read and I'm likely going to re-read it (and I'll bee mining the resources for my info to help me and my family get through the Big One).
Read this, you won't regret it!
June 24, 2017
Kathryn Schulz won a Pulitzer writing a feature about this issue for the New Yorker. Doughton's book came out three years earlier and is a lot more extensive.
The Seattle Times reporter explains how all these scientists figured out that Western Washington is overdue for a killer earthquake, and what needs to be done to prepare for it.
There have been tremendous advances in studying earthquakes in the last 30 years, and Doughton explains it all.
The Seattle Times reporter explains how all these scientists figured out that Western Washington is overdue for a killer earthquake, and what needs to be done to prepare for it.
There have been tremendous advances in studying earthquakes in the last 30 years, and Doughton explains it all.
April 5, 2022
Mostly telling of the discovery and subsequent developing historical and geological history of the Cascadia Fault and the various other seismic faults that are focused in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and blurring into southern British Columbia.
As each of the scientists who worked in these areas - from Brian Atwater who found layers of sand covering layers of marshy arrowgrass which pointed to several examples of tsunami flooding over the centuries to ghost forests where an abrupt drop in the land dropped a living forest into salt water which killed the trees and buried their trunk bases in silt and sand. To deep water cores to ROV explorations of off-shore landslides.
There is even the relatively new discovery - this book was published in 2013 - of what is called 'silent quakes' where the ground is moving deep underground millimeters per year. Displaying directionally how the tectonic plate is actually moving but it is uncertain if those silent quakes are building tension or relieving it.
There are several lists of what to do before, during and after a quake. Preparations for being without power, water, electricity in the days after a quake shakes the land. And some locations - due to geographic discoveries, are going to shake harder and longer. Preventative refits of buildings and homes. Don't wait for a tsunami siren but to immediately hurry to higher ground after a quake especially if you live within a mile or two of water - and that includes creeks and streams that can funnel tsunami waves.
It's an interesting book which provides insight in a very dynamic and changing science. Scientists are never to say there is no danger from a future quake but to be prepared beforehand and afterwards.
Oh, one of the amusing comments - Aristotle in the 300's B.C. thought that earthquakes was a result of the Earth's flatulence. Certainly a different view of the danger beneath our feet.
2022-070
As each of the scientists who worked in these areas - from Brian Atwater who found layers of sand covering layers of marshy arrowgrass which pointed to several examples of tsunami flooding over the centuries to ghost forests where an abrupt drop in the land dropped a living forest into salt water which killed the trees and buried their trunk bases in silt and sand. To deep water cores to ROV explorations of off-shore landslides.
There is even the relatively new discovery - this book was published in 2013 - of what is called 'silent quakes' where the ground is moving deep underground millimeters per year. Displaying directionally how the tectonic plate is actually moving but it is uncertain if those silent quakes are building tension or relieving it.
There are several lists of what to do before, during and after a quake. Preparations for being without power, water, electricity in the days after a quake shakes the land. And some locations - due to geographic discoveries, are going to shake harder and longer. Preventative refits of buildings and homes. Don't wait for a tsunami siren but to immediately hurry to higher ground after a quake especially if you live within a mile or two of water - and that includes creeks and streams that can funnel tsunami waves.
It's an interesting book which provides insight in a very dynamic and changing science. Scientists are never to say there is no danger from a future quake but to be prepared beforehand and afterwards.
Oh, one of the amusing comments - Aristotle in the 300's B.C. thought that earthquakes was a result of the Earth's flatulence. Certainly a different view of the danger beneath our feet.
2022-070
August 20, 2023
This was extremely well written! A very talented journalist! I did have anxiety after reading each evening. And poor Long Beach, Washington (our to go vacation haven), when it (the earthquake) comes, Long Beach, (2 miles wide and surrounded by water), will exist no more. The nightmare is that no one, not the vacationers or the residents have any chance at all, none!!! When the sirens come, there is no way out or a refuge tall enough to save people.
Maybe some people will have bought the Noah pod to try to escape, and yet, no one has tested it against a tsunami.
Maybe some people will have bought the Noah pod to try to escape, and yet, no one has tested it against a tsunami.
June 7, 2019
Eye-opening stuff with wealth of a fabulous geological history of our region.
April 17, 2021
There are two types of people in Seattle and the coastal Pacific North West: Those who obsess over the tectonic danger zone that threatens the region and those who blissfully ignore it, concluding that it is either all hype or that the odds are in our favor. The former read almost any book or article they can find on earthquakes and are accused by the latter of being doomsayers. Of the eight or so books written by scientists or scientific writers over the past 15 years, by far the best for the layman is Sandi Doughton’s “Full Rip 9.0: The Next Big Earthquake in the Pacific Northwest” (2013). Doughton is a Seattle Times science reporter.
Those who live in the Bay Area and California may be surprised to learn that the mega-quake and consequent tsunami, now statistically overdue, that most imperils the continental United States will be caused by the San Juan de Fuca plate off the Olympic Peninsula and not the San Andreas Fault (sparsely populated Alaska is mostly an addendum to PNW as far as the narrative goes, being part of the “Ring of Fire: that threatens Japan, Alaska, coastal Canada, and the PNW, extending to Point Reyes in California). While San Andreas seismic events occur much more frequently, 1989 and 1906 most memorably, a San Juan de Fuca event last occurred . . . on January 26, year 1700, at approximately 2100 Pacific Time. How we now know this—and only for the last couple of decades can pinpoint with precision—is the focus of Doughton’s book.
In addition to scrupulously mapping out the different types of geological events and massive earthquakes (some that appear in only 5 or 10 thousand-year cycles), she provides a layman’s history of seismology, beginning with the once ridiculed plate tectonic theory of Alfred Wegener (“Kontinentalverschiebung,” incorrectly translated as “Continental Drift” and not “Continental Displacement”). Her scientific detective tale synopsizes Wegener’s posthumous reappraisal and redemption when USN submarine technology mapping out ocean floor during the Cold War proving him eerily and presciently correct.
The detective story continues with tree ring analyses and anthropologist recordings of oral traditions of Native Americans from the continental coast of the PNW and Neah Bay. It ends with scientists in the 90’s pre-dawn internet era coming together in academic conferences, from Japan and the USA, synthesizing data from different fields, to conclude irrefutably that the PNW coastline and WA State topography took a horrifying hit—the worst since homo sapiens have inhabited North America—at that specific date and time. The Japanese, who had monitored rogue tidal fluctuations for centuries before European settlers reached the West Coast, provided the final piece to the puzzle.
Doughton’s account is both a must read for anyone who lives in King County or around Seattle and anyone interested in the various sciences that comprise seismic forensic research. Anyone who understands periodicity and probability should be very concerned.
Only in the past two decades have geologists petitioned to have certain areas, long designated for nuclear facilities, stricken off the list after discovering whole forests on the floors of lakes near the Washington Coast. Dougthon’s book is less concerned with what will happen to the infrastructure and how the government should respond (the latter, however, being a sound question made more terrifying by the incompetent, vindictive Trump administration, may he and his cronies be long gone when the inevitable occurs!). She is more concerned with just explaining how a small scientific branch that hadn’t changed much in decades exploded in the 1990’s. Scientists whose work led to state-of-the art mapping of the entire region and changes to the Code of Federal regulations concerning buildings and hazardous (nuclear) materials are interviewed with a pinpointing of the “aha!” moments.
Inevitably, she does—being Seattle-based—discuss specific neighborhoods and problems; the stadiums in SODO, due to their construction are about the best place to be. Capital Hill and the University District, built on rock formations, also do well. Not surprisingly and, as I have known for over a decade, my penthouse, one-bedroom rental on Alki Beach directly overlooking Puget Sound will be completely destroyed, with the debris washed further inland or buried by the tidal fluctuations and tsunami.
A brief review of the Cascadia event as opposed to California quakes: California quakes are much more frequent, often originating at the San Andreas Fault around Bakersfield, and cause events of a magnitude of around 6.0-7.5 on the Richter scale. Earthquakes of this sort are embedded in the consciousness of all Americans and, specifically, Californians. Cascadia events, originating at the San Juan de Fuca subduction zone off the coast of the peninsula, occur with startling (by geological standards) regularity every 300-500 years, but have never occurred since Europeans have had any awareness of the region, the PNW being Terra Incognita during the last event. Do the arithmetic!
Cascadia (the PNW) lies along the infamous Ring of Fire. A Cascadia event will be similar in magnitude to the events that occur in Chile and along the coast of South America and—most recently—in Japan. As the title of Doughton’s book indicates, the inevitable event will be a 9.0-9.3, among the biggest quakes ever recorded; as almost everyone on West Coast knows, the somewhat antiquated Richter scale measures duration and intensity. The decimal differences indicate an exponential difference in devastation.
As a supplement to Sandi Doughton’s book, a curious reader will want to check out Simon Winchester’s “A Crack In The Edge Of The World: America and the Great California Quake of 1906.” Winchester writes books on diverse topics including Korea, the British Empire, and—twice—the creation of the Oxford English Dictionary; his “The Professor and the Madman” is a must-read for any English major or librarian.
Winchester trained as a geologist but soon found his calling as a journalist; his book on Krakatoa was a best seller and established him as a writer who could write about a geological disaster in a scholarly manner, dedicating chapters to the cultural effects of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, for example showing how California quakes and the Krakatoa eruption both led to fundamentalist religious movements. His book on “The California Quake” is about much more than that one event; it recounts the little-known histories of major quakes in Charleston, S.C., Tennessee and Mississippi. And, his account on the aftereffects of the 1906 quake explains what we now take for granted, i.e. why the Swiss largely monopolize the insurance industry. Evidently, many unscrupulous insurers failed to pay out after 1906, making the unethical distinction that the fires resulting from the earthquake were separate events; the Swiss had a bit more ethical backbone, paid out, and became the nation associated with quality insurance to this very day. Winchester also recounts the history of Wegener and his maligned Continental Drift theory.
Personal Notes:
--I was working for a hapless internet start-up by Seatac during the Nisqually quake of 2001. While researching public domain works on witchcraft, a seismic wave coming from the south knocked my computer off the desk. Although in a fourth floor, corner office, I was the first person out of the building, jumping down entire flights of stairs. Right behind me was the—unfortunately named—James Taylor, who was raised in LA and kept screaming “Hurry up!”
--I’ve worked twice on the MV Marcus Langseth, the research vessel for the Lamont Doherty Observatory affiliated with Columbia University and Woods Hole, Mass. Scientists on this vessel map the ocean floor; environmentalists have had this ship in their crosshairs, falsely claiming that we shill for the oil industry. We do not. Their shenanigans and ignorance give environmentalists a bad name. We do not kill and deafen whales. It is always a pleasure to get a job on the Langseth, go somewhere interesting (ie not a big container terminal) and live with scientists and oceanographers and not just surly seamen who have made bad life decisions and carp about them constantly. At present, Republican’s have scrapped the science budget. The Langseth will be pulled from service in 2019, greatly affecting oceanographic research emanating from the USA.
--I had the immense pleasure of meeting Simon Winchester and seeing him speak at Seattle’s Town Hall. He is utterly approachable and eloquent. He began his talk relating how he traveled to Washington State when Mount St. Helens showed signs of imminent eruption. The federal government had ordered everyone out of the region. Winchester being Winchester ignored the order and drove up the mountain in an attempt to interview the aptly named Harry Truman, who had refused to leave his home. Winchester’s car slid off a mountain road into a gully, and he ended up rescued and arrested. Harry Truman disappeared with the eruption of Mount St. Helens.
Finally, Sandi Doughton is a fine writer with a day job at a lousy anti-union paper. Buy her book and support her!
*Caveat Emptor: As an obsessive personality, I did not open these books to verify much while writing this review; I’d become entranced and have to do a close reread. All corrections welcome. I have typed largely from memory and with a layman’s scientific vocabulary.
Those who live in the Bay Area and California may be surprised to learn that the mega-quake and consequent tsunami, now statistically overdue, that most imperils the continental United States will be caused by the San Juan de Fuca plate off the Olympic Peninsula and not the San Andreas Fault (sparsely populated Alaska is mostly an addendum to PNW as far as the narrative goes, being part of the “Ring of Fire: that threatens Japan, Alaska, coastal Canada, and the PNW, extending to Point Reyes in California). While San Andreas seismic events occur much more frequently, 1989 and 1906 most memorably, a San Juan de Fuca event last occurred . . . on January 26, year 1700, at approximately 2100 Pacific Time. How we now know this—and only for the last couple of decades can pinpoint with precision—is the focus of Doughton’s book.
In addition to scrupulously mapping out the different types of geological events and massive earthquakes (some that appear in only 5 or 10 thousand-year cycles), she provides a layman’s history of seismology, beginning with the once ridiculed plate tectonic theory of Alfred Wegener (“Kontinentalverschiebung,” incorrectly translated as “Continental Drift” and not “Continental Displacement”). Her scientific detective tale synopsizes Wegener’s posthumous reappraisal and redemption when USN submarine technology mapping out ocean floor during the Cold War proving him eerily and presciently correct.
The detective story continues with tree ring analyses and anthropologist recordings of oral traditions of Native Americans from the continental coast of the PNW and Neah Bay. It ends with scientists in the 90’s pre-dawn internet era coming together in academic conferences, from Japan and the USA, synthesizing data from different fields, to conclude irrefutably that the PNW coastline and WA State topography took a horrifying hit—the worst since homo sapiens have inhabited North America—at that specific date and time. The Japanese, who had monitored rogue tidal fluctuations for centuries before European settlers reached the West Coast, provided the final piece to the puzzle.
Doughton’s account is both a must read for anyone who lives in King County or around Seattle and anyone interested in the various sciences that comprise seismic forensic research. Anyone who understands periodicity and probability should be very concerned.
Only in the past two decades have geologists petitioned to have certain areas, long designated for nuclear facilities, stricken off the list after discovering whole forests on the floors of lakes near the Washington Coast. Dougthon’s book is less concerned with what will happen to the infrastructure and how the government should respond (the latter, however, being a sound question made more terrifying by the incompetent, vindictive Trump administration, may he and his cronies be long gone when the inevitable occurs!). She is more concerned with just explaining how a small scientific branch that hadn’t changed much in decades exploded in the 1990’s. Scientists whose work led to state-of-the art mapping of the entire region and changes to the Code of Federal regulations concerning buildings and hazardous (nuclear) materials are interviewed with a pinpointing of the “aha!” moments.
Inevitably, she does—being Seattle-based—discuss specific neighborhoods and problems; the stadiums in SODO, due to their construction are about the best place to be. Capital Hill and the University District, built on rock formations, also do well. Not surprisingly and, as I have known for over a decade, my penthouse, one-bedroom rental on Alki Beach directly overlooking Puget Sound will be completely destroyed, with the debris washed further inland or buried by the tidal fluctuations and tsunami.
A brief review of the Cascadia event as opposed to California quakes: California quakes are much more frequent, often originating at the San Andreas Fault around Bakersfield, and cause events of a magnitude of around 6.0-7.5 on the Richter scale. Earthquakes of this sort are embedded in the consciousness of all Americans and, specifically, Californians. Cascadia events, originating at the San Juan de Fuca subduction zone off the coast of the peninsula, occur with startling (by geological standards) regularity every 300-500 years, but have never occurred since Europeans have had any awareness of the region, the PNW being Terra Incognita during the last event. Do the arithmetic!
Cascadia (the PNW) lies along the infamous Ring of Fire. A Cascadia event will be similar in magnitude to the events that occur in Chile and along the coast of South America and—most recently—in Japan. As the title of Doughton’s book indicates, the inevitable event will be a 9.0-9.3, among the biggest quakes ever recorded; as almost everyone on West Coast knows, the somewhat antiquated Richter scale measures duration and intensity. The decimal differences indicate an exponential difference in devastation.
As a supplement to Sandi Doughton’s book, a curious reader will want to check out Simon Winchester’s “A Crack In The Edge Of The World: America and the Great California Quake of 1906.” Winchester writes books on diverse topics including Korea, the British Empire, and—twice—the creation of the Oxford English Dictionary; his “The Professor and the Madman” is a must-read for any English major or librarian.
Winchester trained as a geologist but soon found his calling as a journalist; his book on Krakatoa was a best seller and established him as a writer who could write about a geological disaster in a scholarly manner, dedicating chapters to the cultural effects of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, for example showing how California quakes and the Krakatoa eruption both led to fundamentalist religious movements. His book on “The California Quake” is about much more than that one event; it recounts the little-known histories of major quakes in Charleston, S.C., Tennessee and Mississippi. And, his account on the aftereffects of the 1906 quake explains what we now take for granted, i.e. why the Swiss largely monopolize the insurance industry. Evidently, many unscrupulous insurers failed to pay out after 1906, making the unethical distinction that the fires resulting from the earthquake were separate events; the Swiss had a bit more ethical backbone, paid out, and became the nation associated with quality insurance to this very day. Winchester also recounts the history of Wegener and his maligned Continental Drift theory.
Personal Notes:
--I was working for a hapless internet start-up by Seatac during the Nisqually quake of 2001. While researching public domain works on witchcraft, a seismic wave coming from the south knocked my computer off the desk. Although in a fourth floor, corner office, I was the first person out of the building, jumping down entire flights of stairs. Right behind me was the—unfortunately named—James Taylor, who was raised in LA and kept screaming “Hurry up!”
--I’ve worked twice on the MV Marcus Langseth, the research vessel for the Lamont Doherty Observatory affiliated with Columbia University and Woods Hole, Mass. Scientists on this vessel map the ocean floor; environmentalists have had this ship in their crosshairs, falsely claiming that we shill for the oil industry. We do not. Their shenanigans and ignorance give environmentalists a bad name. We do not kill and deafen whales. It is always a pleasure to get a job on the Langseth, go somewhere interesting (ie not a big container terminal) and live with scientists and oceanographers and not just surly seamen who have made bad life decisions and carp about them constantly. At present, Republican’s have scrapped the science budget. The Langseth will be pulled from service in 2019, greatly affecting oceanographic research emanating from the USA.
--I had the immense pleasure of meeting Simon Winchester and seeing him speak at Seattle’s Town Hall. He is utterly approachable and eloquent. He began his talk relating how he traveled to Washington State when Mount St. Helens showed signs of imminent eruption. The federal government had ordered everyone out of the region. Winchester being Winchester ignored the order and drove up the mountain in an attempt to interview the aptly named Harry Truman, who had refused to leave his home. Winchester’s car slid off a mountain road into a gully, and he ended up rescued and arrested. Harry Truman disappeared with the eruption of Mount St. Helens.
Finally, Sandi Doughton is a fine writer with a day job at a lousy anti-union paper. Buy her book and support her!
*Caveat Emptor: As an obsessive personality, I did not open these books to verify much while writing this review; I’d become entranced and have to do a close reread. All corrections welcome. I have typed largely from memory and with a layman’s scientific vocabulary.
April 28, 2013
when, not if. it has been over 300 years since the pacific northwest last endured a megaquake (in 1700, the region was struck by a temblor sixty times more powerful than the one that devastated san francisco in 1906). with the cascadia subduction zone (stretching from northern california into british columbia) (over)due for a magnitude 9 quake or greater, big cities and small towns up and down the pacific coast are facing a catastrophic threat of nearly inconceivable proportions.
full rip 9.0 is rich in both history and science, offering an accessible, well-researched look into the looming threat of a pacific northwest megaquake. sandi doughton, a science reporter for the seattle times, provides background on the region's geology, the scientists instrumental in uncovering previous seismological activity, and the woefully unprepared state of local governments, businesses, schools, and individuals to anticipate and mitigate the impending danger. fascinating, frightening, and even a touch infuriating (given the unpardonable inattention of public officials), doughton's important book is lively and well-written.
when, not if.
"the 'big one' in the pacific northwest has the potential to be the mostly costly and destructive disaster in the history of the united states, both in terms of loss of life and economic damage. the long term economic impact could alter our entire economy," said james lee witt, former director of fema.sandi doughton's full rip 9.0 is an enlightening (if not, at times, horrifying) look at the seismological threat facing the northwest. cities like vancouver, seattle, and portland will likely suffer epic and unparalleled destruction when the shaking begins, while coastal destination towns (including seaside, cannon beach, and newport) face obliteration altogether when the inevitable tsunamis follow not long after. with casualties expected to reach into the tens of thousands, it will likely dwarf the destruction left in the wake of hurricane katrina.
full rip 9.0 is rich in both history and science, offering an accessible, well-researched look into the looming threat of a pacific northwest megaquake. sandi doughton, a science reporter for the seattle times, provides background on the region's geology, the scientists instrumental in uncovering previous seismological activity, and the woefully unprepared state of local governments, businesses, schools, and individuals to anticipate and mitigate the impending danger. fascinating, frightening, and even a touch infuriating (given the unpardonable inattention of public officials), doughton's important book is lively and well-written.
when, not if.
October 9, 2013
Well written and understandable history and current state of earthquake research in the Pacific Northwest. Being something of a geology geek, I was afraid this book would be a rehash of some of the news stories we've already read, but Doughton is a prize-winning journalist who tags along with researchers as they wade through muddy swamps or dig trenches on Mt. Hood. She knows just when to include a juicy story such as that of outlaw John McBride whose vivid testimony of his experience of the major 1872 earthquake was so pooh-poohed until other evidence started coming together. Doughton does an excellent job of story-weaving multiple lines of research over the years that have built our frightening picture of the potential for truly devastating quakes, and she deals with the human element--the people who do the research and the political, economic and engineering questions we're faced with. Highly recommended for all of us here in the PNW--now I need to google who does foundation retro-fit ties for houses in our area.
January 15, 2014
Full-Rip 9.0 is an interesting read. From the time when European settlers scoffed at Native American legends suggesting earthquakes to the current time, this book includes not only the earthquakes that have struck the region, but the people involved in the realizations of the area's seismic risk. With its vivid portraits of people, places, and events, not to mention a scientific explanation of the tectonic forces behind the earthquakes, Full-Rip 9.0 leaves few questions unanswered. The book is especially detailed in its coverage of Seattle's earthquake risk, including surprising information. This book's excellent writing, interspersed with shocking facts and interesting theories, made for a very satisfying nonfiction book.
July 31, 2017
Pretty good survey of earthquake knowledge and danger in the Northwest - especially Washington and even more so, Seattle. The focus on Washington made it a bit less interesting. The book was strongest when it was describing what was known when, and how it was discovered and who was discovering it. It had much more than a purely Cascadia Subduction Zone focus including quite a bit on the Seattle Fault. Definitely bogged down at times, and was weakest on what should be done to mitigate earthquakes in the area. Not bad, but the 2011 Cascadia's Fault: The Coming Earthquake and Tsunami That Could Devastate North America was a bit better, even though this one was from 2013. 3.5 of 5.
July 23, 2015
You read that "New Yorker" article and it scared the hell out of you. Me too. Now read the book that article was drawing from, except that the book doesn't try to overwhelm you with scary quotes like "everything west of I-5 will be toast."
Instead, you get a real, sober look at the science behind the dire predictions, a realistic assessment of the danger, and an understanding for how new this entire subject is. It's absolutely worth your time, especially if you're still thinking about that article.
Instead, you get a real, sober look at the science behind the dire predictions, a realistic assessment of the danger, and an understanding for how new this entire subject is. It's absolutely worth your time, especially if you're still thinking about that article.
June 23, 2016
3.5 stars - I liked it a lot
I'm really interested in the subject matter, as my wife an I have a PNW move planned for our future, but sometimes I felt like the author repeated some information a few times in different parts of the book and at times it was a bit of a dry read, but what do you expect? It's a book about geology and earthquake liquefaction zones and etc. Overall though it was very informative about the risk and reality of the earthquake danger in the PNW and I certainly learned a lot about the geology of the part of the country that I enjoy the most.
I'm really interested in the subject matter, as my wife an I have a PNW move planned for our future, but sometimes I felt like the author repeated some information a few times in different parts of the book and at times it was a bit of a dry read, but what do you expect? It's a book about geology and earthquake liquefaction zones and etc. Overall though it was very informative about the risk and reality of the earthquake danger in the PNW and I certainly learned a lot about the geology of the part of the country that I enjoy the most.
January 8, 2014
Solid overview of a really fascinating topic. I learned quite a bit about the evolution of thinking about northwest quakes (and to some extent, earthquakes in general). Somewhat Seattle-centric, as might be expected with a Seattle-based author, plus I think a lot of the actual science is centered in Seattle. If you live anywhere in the region, particularly in the Puget Sound area, absolutely worth reading.
October 5, 2015
This title is all about the evolution of seismology research in the Pacific NW (which very much includes southern Oregon), a place that was once considered safe from earthquakes and is now considered one of the most fascinating places for scientists to study earthquakes. The book is both freaky and reassuring at the same time; at the very least, you'll look at your surroundings a little differently and will probably be persuaded to "be prepared".
December 31, 2013
For geology buffs, this reads like an A to Z thriller on the earthquake history of the Pacific Northwest, with Washington as the crunch zone for the North American plate moving west against the subducting Juan de Fuca plate and the Pacific Plate moving north into the unmoveable mainland of British Columbia. There's trouble ahead. Doughton's book sort of guarantees it.
November 19, 2014
Holy cow! If you live in the Pacific Northwest, this book is a must read. This will change your view on everything you do. Plan!!!! It will come! Very well written, I might add. I'm reading it again. There is so much information, but yet I didn't feel as though it was a "science textbook"! Well organized. Reads like a thriller!
January 7, 2022
I'm a fan of John McPhee's Annals of the Former World books. Sandi Doughton is in his league as an Earth science essayist.
July 2, 2021
While Doughton relates the very interesting story of the Juan de Fuca subduction zone, her account is so full of asides and minor stories that it is hard to sieve out the geology.
The Juan de Fuca Plate subduces under the North American Plate at 40 mm per year, while the adjacent Pacific Plate moves north at 45 mm per year. The Juan de Fuca Plate lies offshore from north of Vancouver Island to northern California. The subduction zone is called Cascadia.
Subduction zones create the most powerful quakes as the rupture zone is huge: often hundreds of miles. Quakes due to subduction zones include the 2004 Indian Ocean quake and Alaska’s 1964 magnitude 9.2 monster. There is evidence that a magnitude 9 earthquake hit the Pacific Northwest in the year 1700.
It appears that the Juan de Fuca plate does not slide smoothly under the North American Plate. Rather, it pushes the edge of the North American Plate causing uplift and shortening at the edge, eventually rupturing which allows the North American Plate to relax and extend causing subsidence of the land. Evidence of past subsidence can be seen in forests where silt extends up tree trunks showing that the trees were once higher than at present.
Cores of the sea bed show a series of landslides that appear to be associated with past slips of the Juan de Fuca subduction zone. Some events appear to be the result of a slippage of part of the zone, while others are more extensive. The record extends back to the ash layer deposited by the Mt. Mazama eruption that created Crater Lake.
A fault exists under the city of Seattle, now known as the Seattle Fault. A major slip of this fault occurred 1100 years ago. A magnitude 5 quake in 1995 is also attributed to this fault. While a major slip of this fault would do major damage to the city, there is little recognition of any danger as the last slip is so far in the past.
Scans with LIDAR show that Washington has a network of other faults including examples under Tacoma and the capital, Olympia.
The region also experiences deep quakes such as the Nisqually quake of 2001 and an earlier quake in 1949. The USGS estimates that damaging deep quakes strike the Puget Sound region every thirty years, on average.
The author looks at the likely effects of a large earthquake, including a lack of services such as power, clean water and sewage facilities for extended periods. Extensive deaths would occur. Washington is unprepared for large tsunamis and it is feared that one could result in widespread loss of human life.
It is known from the Japanese experience that the effects can be greatly reduced through better construction methods to provide resilience and preparation for escape and recovery. While a number of persons have been working to that end, North America has much work to be done.
The Juan de Fuca Plate subduces under the North American Plate at 40 mm per year, while the adjacent Pacific Plate moves north at 45 mm per year. The Juan de Fuca Plate lies offshore from north of Vancouver Island to northern California. The subduction zone is called Cascadia.
Subduction zones create the most powerful quakes as the rupture zone is huge: often hundreds of miles. Quakes due to subduction zones include the 2004 Indian Ocean quake and Alaska’s 1964 magnitude 9.2 monster. There is evidence that a magnitude 9 earthquake hit the Pacific Northwest in the year 1700.
It appears that the Juan de Fuca plate does not slide smoothly under the North American Plate. Rather, it pushes the edge of the North American Plate causing uplift and shortening at the edge, eventually rupturing which allows the North American Plate to relax and extend causing subsidence of the land. Evidence of past subsidence can be seen in forests where silt extends up tree trunks showing that the trees were once higher than at present.
Cores of the sea bed show a series of landslides that appear to be associated with past slips of the Juan de Fuca subduction zone. Some events appear to be the result of a slippage of part of the zone, while others are more extensive. The record extends back to the ash layer deposited by the Mt. Mazama eruption that created Crater Lake.
A fault exists under the city of Seattle, now known as the Seattle Fault. A major slip of this fault occurred 1100 years ago. A magnitude 5 quake in 1995 is also attributed to this fault. While a major slip of this fault would do major damage to the city, there is little recognition of any danger as the last slip is so far in the past.
Scans with LIDAR show that Washington has a network of other faults including examples under Tacoma and the capital, Olympia.
The region also experiences deep quakes such as the Nisqually quake of 2001 and an earlier quake in 1949. The USGS estimates that damaging deep quakes strike the Puget Sound region every thirty years, on average.
The author looks at the likely effects of a large earthquake, including a lack of services such as power, clean water and sewage facilities for extended periods. Extensive deaths would occur. Washington is unprepared for large tsunamis and it is feared that one could result in widespread loss of human life.
It is known from the Japanese experience that the effects can be greatly reduced through better construction methods to provide resilience and preparation for escape and recovery. While a number of persons have been working to that end, North America has much work to be done.
May 5, 2019
I took an interest in geology when I moved to the Pacific Northwest (PNW) upon retirement. Lectures and field trips led by working geologists are frequent fare here and several of these people have recommended Full-Rip 9.0 for everyone with at least a modicum of interest in earthquakes in the region and especially on the Cascadia Subduction Zone. I’ll say straight away that their recommendation is well founded.
If you’re seeking the science underlying the past and future temblors in the PNW then move on. Doughton strived to and succeeded at writing a book for the intelligent layman rather than the student of the science. [Those with the scientific bent should still read and learn from this book as an outstanding example of how to convey your knowledge to the non-scientist clearly and usefully.] The emphasis is on Seattle and the area surrounding it with Vancouver BC, Portland and Northern California not ignored but not by any means explored to the same depth.
The history of human efforts to understand earthquakes is neatly woven into the narrative. She introduces geologists as people, she explains their work relevant to her story and shows their human sides. The timeline isn’t unidirectional; she moves forward but steps back in time when it’s appropriate and enlightening. She also moves about geographically to tell our region’s story from the POV of what has been learned in comparable places overseas.
As is the case with most science-based books, the choice of illustrations is excellent, indeed, they’re exceptional, and they are well placed in the chapters but their production is not up to the quality of the narrative. They tend to be smaller than they should be and often are not as clearly readable as befits the topic. There is a list of sources arranged by chapter and a recommended reading list. Both are wonderful.
All in all Full-Rip 9.0 is an excellent overview of what we know or posit about the risks faced by the PNW sometime (we are sure) between now and the next several hundred years.
If you’re seeking the science underlying the past and future temblors in the PNW then move on. Doughton strived to and succeeded at writing a book for the intelligent layman rather than the student of the science. [Those with the scientific bent should still read and learn from this book as an outstanding example of how to convey your knowledge to the non-scientist clearly and usefully.] The emphasis is on Seattle and the area surrounding it with Vancouver BC, Portland and Northern California not ignored but not by any means explored to the same depth.
The history of human efforts to understand earthquakes is neatly woven into the narrative. She introduces geologists as people, she explains their work relevant to her story and shows their human sides. The timeline isn’t unidirectional; she moves forward but steps back in time when it’s appropriate and enlightening. She also moves about geographically to tell our region’s story from the POV of what has been learned in comparable places overseas.
As is the case with most science-based books, the choice of illustrations is excellent, indeed, they’re exceptional, and they are well placed in the chapters but their production is not up to the quality of the narrative. They tend to be smaller than they should be and often are not as clearly readable as befits the topic. There is a list of sources arranged by chapter and a recommended reading list. Both are wonderful.
All in all Full-Rip 9.0 is an excellent overview of what we know or posit about the risks faced by the PNW sometime (we are sure) between now and the next several hundred years.
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