Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is caught between his hardline coalition and Donald Trump

In a tent camp in west Gaza City, amid the stupefying August heat and the summer infestations of rats, mice and even weasels, life for 67-year-old Ahmed Ibrahim Suweirki is illuminated by something profoundly rare these days: optimism.

"God willing, things will be better. I have hope that Hamas will surrender its weapons, because of the suffering of its people. We're tired, exhausted and slaughtered. It is enough," Suweirki said.

Suweirki has been displaced "about four times" since October 7. Relief for him and his family will come only with a peace deal that allows reconstruction of this ruined enclave.

"But many agreements have been announced and went into thin air," he said.

Hamas said last week it will surrender its weapons — but only if Israel withdraws from Gaza.

And that's the problem. Donald Trump's 20-point peace plan, announced last September and apparently now accepted by Hamas, requires major concessions, and some trust, from both sides.

"The fact that Hamas has tentatively agreed to relinquish its weapons is in of itself a fairly historic development," said Jennifer Gavito, a former deputy US secretary for Iran, Iraq and public diplomacy, and Middle East analyst.

"That being said, it is completely contingent on Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and stopping ongoing attacks there."

And those measures are in the hands of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who for five days stayed silent on Hamas's offer to surrender its weapons and relinquish authority in Gaza to an independent Palestinian governing body.

Netanyahu is wedged between an impatient US president and his own ultra-conservative political allies.

Trump wants a deal with Hamas, now. Conservatives in the Netanyahu cabinet, including Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, don't want a deal with the group, ever. 

Both men are ultra-right nationalists who reject the notion of a Palestinian people, let alone a Palestinian state. 

Ben-Gvir and Smotrich have called for the annexation and occupation of Gaza by Jewish settlers, and the forced displacement of its residents.

"They will push him to renege," Gershon Baskin, an Israeli writer who has previously negotiated with Hamas, said.

"Netanyahu cannot go against Trump three months before the elections in Israel. That's one of his main strategic cards that he holds to the Israeli public, that he has the best relationship with President Trump that any Israeli leader could have with an American president."

After Israel attacked Gaza in response to the horrors of October 7, the prime minister repeatedly promised "total victory" and the "elimination" of Hamas.

That hasn't happened.

Hamas remains in power in Gaza. And a negotiated Israeli withdrawal towards the border is not "total victory". If he allowed it, Netanyahu would be admitting a failure of his war aims.

Netanyahu finally spoke publicly about the issue on Wednesday.

"I stand firm on our security interests," he said in a video released on social media.

Does Trump have the staying power?

The details of Hamas's disarmament and Israel's withdrawal remain under negotiation.

There is confusion over whether Hamas will hand over heavy weapons like rocket launchers, and keep its small arms. 

There is also an argument over whether weapons will be destroyed or "stored" somewhere out of reach, combined with uncertainty on who will verify each step. 

Netanyahu says Israel hasn't signed up to anything yet.

"This really is more a deal amongst the Palestinians negotiated by, again, the Board of Peace and Arab neighbours," Gavito said.

"And why Hamas has done this, I suspect, is first of all, a play for time. And second, anticipation that there is very little realistic hope that Israel will follow through on this.

Hamas says it will hand over power in Gaza to a Palestinian "technocratic" governing authority: made up of experts in their field, not politicians.

But no one seems sure when any of this will happen.

"Right now we seem to be stuck on the first step," Shalom Lipner, a former advisor to several Israeli prime ministers, said.

"Hamas is saying that they're not even going to step into a disarmament process until Israel has withdrawn fully from the territory. And Israel is saying they're not planning on taking one step back until Hamas is disarmed."

Pursuing Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal will involve pressure on Hamas from the Gulf States and on Israel from the United States.

Gavito isn't sure Trump has the patience for that kind of sustained diplomatic effort.

"The requirements for turning this into success require much more than glitzy announcements," Gavito said.

Lipner says that neither side wants to openly reject the prospect of a deal.

"People want to be optimistic about it and hope that this thing will play out," Lipner said.

"There's room for that but there's also plenty of room for tentativity (sic) and scepticism about how this plays out because we have long history with the protagonists here, who will probably not jump into this with both feet forward."

This slow march towards ending the fighting and rebuilding Gaza is immensely frustrating for the displaced residents of west Gaza City.

"We've been hoping for the truce for a long time, for two years," Subhiah Muhammad Ahmad Aliyan, told 7.30.

"People used to clap and celebrate it — but these truces are like a distraction. They tell us there's a truce and there isn't a truce."

The 70-year-old is caring for three girls orphaned by the war.

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