1,914 leopard attacks, 132 by tigers in 19 yrs in Uttarakhand, says study in journal of British Ecological Society

DEHRADUN: Leopards and tigers follow markedly different patterns when it comes to attacks on humans in Uttarakhand. According to a study published in the peer-reviewed journal ‘People and Nature’ of the British Ecological Society, leopard attacks peak during the monsoon while tiger attacks rise in the dry summer months.The study, released on Aug 19, analysed 2,046 leopard and tiger attacks recorded across the hill state between 2000 and 2019, using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) spatial modelling framework to map the attack patterns and identify environmental factors associated with them.Of the total attacks over the 19-year period, 1,914 (an average of 98 per year) were attributed to leopards, of which 22.3% were fatal, while 132 (7 per year) were attributed to tigers, with a higher fatality rate of 34.8%. It found that conflict risks were maximum in areas where settlements, roads, farms and other human activities overlapped with forests, wildlife corridors and predator habitats.Conducting a spatio-temporal data analysis of 2,046 official relief payment records compiled from 2000 to 2019, the researchers set out to map and predict the patterns, environmental drivers and demographic vulnerabilities associated with the attacks by ‘Panthera tigris’ and ‘Panthera pardus’ on humans. The study’s lead author Aman Deep Rathi stated that their research addresses a critical conservation dilemma -- “how to foster the human-wildlife coexistence in an Anthropocene landscape where expanding human activity increasingly overlaps with recovering apex predator populations”.The research team further correlated attack locations with key eco-geographical covariates — including the Terrain Ruggedness Index (TRI), road density, night-light intensity and distance to protected areas. The findings revealed contrasting spatial dynamics reflecting the distinct ecological niches of the two felids. Leopard conflict proved widespread across low- to mid-elevation ranges, with high road density and rural night-light levels being primary spatial predictors.“Attacks on humans by leopards were reported in all 13 districts of the state. The Pauri Garhwal area encompassing the lower Himalayas and part of the Gangetic plains had the highest proportion of conflict, with 21.6% of total attacks accounting for 28.6% of all fatalities, followed by Almora and Tehri Garhwal. The lowest incidences of attacks by leopards were observed in Udham Singh Nagar district, situated in the alluvial Gangetic plains. However, the density of attacks was highest for Rudraprayag district (8.5/100 km2),” the study stated.Conversely, tiger conflict was tightly constrained within lower elevations (<2,000 m) and in close spatial proximity (<40 km) to protected area boundaries, particularly within the Terai Arc Landscape. “Statistical modeling confirmed a strong positive correlation between rising tiger numbers and human attacks, indicating approximately 12 additional attacks for every increase of 100 tigers,” co-authors of the study Keshab Gogoi, Rajiv Bhartari and Yadvendradev V Jhala added.Authors also noted in the study: “Attacks on humans by tigers were reported only in four districts of the state. Nainital district had the highest magnitude with 65% of total attacks, 43.4% of fatalities in total and the highest density of attack (2.2/100 km2).” The study further mentioned: “Proportion of attacks with physical contact between carnivore and human that resulted in death of the victim were 31.2% for tigers and 22.2% for leopards.”Moreover, temporal patterns and victim demographics differed significantly between species due to seasonal variation in human activities and vegetation dynamics. Leopard attacks peaked during the monsoon (July and Oct), when high agricultural crop cover provides stealth concealment near villages.In contrast, tiger attacks peaked in the dry summer months (March to May), driven by increased human entry into forested reserves for forestry operations and non-timber forest product (NTFP) collection. “Overall, adult males experienced the highest incidence of attacks by both carnivores due to gendered labour roles. However, fatality rates were disproportionately higher among women and children during leopard encounters. While 90% of tiger attacks occurred deep inside forests during resource collection, 44% of leopard encounters occurred near settlements and 16% in farmlands during daily domestic routines,” the study stated.To mitigate these escalating encounters, the authors outline a series of evidence-based policy and management interventions focused on reducing rural forest dependency. The researchers advocated for infrastructure improvements, including predator-proof livestock corrals, improved sanitation facilities to curb open defecation, reliable 24x7 rural electrification and alternative cooking fuels to lessen fuelwood gathering.Additionally, they recommend targeted safety protocols for forest workers, continuous deployment of armed elephant patrols in high-risk zones, selective use of carnivore-proof fencing along non-corridor boundaries, and the swift, humane removal of confirmed problem animals.