Slope of Hope Blog Posts

Slope initially began as a blog, so this is where most of the website’s content resides. Here we have tens of thousands of posts dating back over a decade. These are listed in reverse chronological order. Click on any category icon below to see posts tagged with that particular subject, or click on a word in the category cloud on the right side of the screen for more specific choices.

One More Heave

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In my last post on Monday 14th September and my previous posts on Friday 4th September and Wednesday 2nd September I was looking at the case that the retracement since the start of August has been a bullish consolidation that would likely be followed by retests of the all time highs on some or all of SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM.

Since then we have seen a strong rally on Tech on Friday and Monday that delivered an all time high retest on QQQ but so far has failed to deliver a corresponding all time high retest on SPX.

I have been saying all along that what happened on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) was likely to be key, as high retests were only likely if Tech led the retests. On Friday last week SOX finally closed over the 50dma and declining resistance from the high and that delivered the retest of the all-time high on QQQ earlier this week.

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Strong Headwinds

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In my last post on Friday 4th September and my previous post on Wednesday 2nd September I was looking at the case that the current retracement has been a bullish consolidation that would likely be followed by retests of the all time highs on some or all of SPX, QQQ, DIA and IWM.

To a significant degree I’m looking for high retests for purely technical reasons, because there isn’t much here in the way of topping patterns that have formed, so I’d like to see some high retests to set up double tops, but there are also H&S options that might form after a significant further decline from here.

In terms of the technical setup for high retests from here the setups are decent, but the main problem has been the steady stream of bad news, which got a lot worse last week. That is increasing the possibility that we might see a break down directly from here.

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Well That Escalated Quickly

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In my post on Tuesday 4th August I was looking at the ambiguous setup on US indices and the Nikkei after the strong rally into the beginning of August, noting the three good quality topping patterns that were still intact on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), QQQ and Nikkei. Since then the Nikkei pattern has failed with a target at a retest of the all time high.

I also noted that SPX was close to the daily 3sd upper band, and said that I was looking for a short term consolidation of a week or so, to allow time for the daily middle bands to go higher, and for the daily outer bands to expand, opening up further possible upside. We have since seen that consolidation last for four weeks so far, the daily middle bands turned up, and the outer bands expanded, but then contracted again before the lower bands were hit again this week.

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The Air Is Feeling Thick Here

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In my post on Tuesday 4th August I was looking at the ambiguous setup on US indices and the Nikkei after the strong rally into the beginning of August, noting the three good quality topping patterns that were still intact on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), QQQ and Nikkei. Since then the Nikkei pattern has failed with a target at a retest of the all time high.

I also noted that SPX was close to the daily 3sd upper band, and said that I was looking for a short term consolidation of a week or so, to allow time for the daily middle bands to go higher, and for the daily outer bands to expand, opening up further possible upside. We have since seen that consolidation last for four weeks so far, the daily middle bands turned up, and the outer bands expanded, but then contracted again before they were hit this week.

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Waiting on Jackson Hole

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In my post on Tuesday 4th August I was looking at the ambiguous setup on US indices and the Nikkei after the strong rally into the beginning of August, noting the three good quality topping patterns that were still intact on the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), QQQ and Nikkei.

I also noted that SPX was close to the daily 3sd upper band, and said that I was looking for a short term consolidation of a week or so, to allow time for the daily middle bands to go higher, and for the daily outer bands to expand, opening up further possible upside. We have since seen that consolidation last for three weeks so far, the daily middle bands have turned up, and the outer bands expanded, but have since started to contract again.

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