About

What is the Falcona Forecast™️?

In short, it is a risk-adjusted predictive model for Serie A matches. Using advanced statistics based on the xG (expected goals) philosophy, I created a neural network algorithm to predict the probability of each result occurring in every game. Below, I will explain in further detail how to interpret the output of the model.

But first, a short history of how the Forecast came to be and why I am doing this. I’m currently a grad student pursuing a Master’s degree in Applied Data Science. The Forecast is really a marriage of what I’m studying in school, and what I like to do in my free time: watch the Serie A and bet on sports. The first iteration of the Forecast actually originated as a final project for a class (the model performed poorly, but I got a good grade!). Since then, I’ve made adjustments and improvements to the model as I learn more in school. It’s been a fun journey so far, and I’m really excited to see where this takes me.

How do I interpret it?

Above is an example of the output I will release before each match day. Let’s go over the sections that might not be self-explanatory:

Predicted Home/Draw/Away %:

This is the raw output from the model. These percentages are the probabilities that each result will occur.

Home/Draw/Away Consensus Odds:

These are the average gambling odds across all American sportsbooks for each result. I know many of you are not familiar with American odds, so I’ve included a link in the ‘Resources’ section of the site to help with the conversions. Action Network has a handy tool that converts American odds into decimal and fractional odds, as well as the implied probability.

Home/Draw/Away Value:

This is purely a simple ‘Expected Value’ calculation for each bet you can make, based on a bet to win $100. This represents your expected profit if you were to bet on that result to happen. You’ll notice that when you add the three numbers together for each match, the number is typically negative. This is because of the vig, or the sportsbook’s “fee” for taking your wager. The vig essentially guarantees that the book always wins against the general public. But we aren’t the general public! By finding where the value is, we can have an advantage over the public.

Value Bet:

The Value Bet is simply which bet gives you the maximum expected value. A word of caution: I’m not necessarily recommending you blindly bet on every value bet. What the Forecast has found is that the favorites and the well-known teams are generally overpriced. This is because the books know the general public will tend to bet on the favorites and the teams they know. Books will then adjust their lines to account for the public’s betting trend to ensure they are properly leveraged (aka ensure they will make money on the game). For this reason, the Value Bet is going to be an underdog or a draw against a heavy favorite more often than not.

A few final notes:

-The Forecast does not account for lineups, injuries, team form, or other real-life circumstances. It purely takes the team’s current stats and runs them through the model. So one must keep that in mind while placing bets and interpreting the output.

-If you add up the implied probability for the consensus (bookmaker) odds, you’ll notice that the percentages add up to approximately 105%. The extra 5% is the vig as mentioned above. My model does not include the vig (all probabilities add up to exactly 100%), and therefore we are able to see which result gives us the highest value for our money. However, this also means that *surprise surprise* the odds are still stacked against you versus the bookies.

-I’m constantly looking for ways to improve on the model! I know some of you reading this might be in the data analytics or data science field and I’d love to hear your input or work with you. The best way to reach out to me is via the @FalconaForecast Twitter page.

-My weekly podcast appearance on the RomaPress Podcast and my blog posts are purely my own interpretation of the model and how I am approaching betting on the games for the week. I’m not a professional gambler or anything so take my analysis with a grain of salt! In other words, this is for entertainment purposes only, gamble responsibly.