华尔街日报 | 叙利亚政权垮台后，伊斯兰国会不会卷土重来？

Fears Grow of Islamic State’s Re-Emergence in Syria


去年伊斯兰国武装已在叙利亚和伊拉克部分地区死灰复燃，12月阿萨德政权垮台，他们又从叙利亚军队的火药库获得新的武器供给。


大马士革的一个军事中心被毁的叙利亚空军直升机。

去年伊斯兰国武装已在叙利亚和伊拉克部分地区死灰复燃，12月阿萨德(Assad)政权垮台，他们又从叙利亚军队的火药库获得新的武器供给。
Islamic State militants were already resurgent last year in parts of Syria and Iraq. Then in December, the Assad regime collapsed, furnishing them with fresh supplies of weapons from stocks abandoned by the Syrian army.
   
伊斯兰国曾在中东地区制造恐怖事件，并在世界其他地方煽动袭击，如今该组织想趁叙利亚前景不明之际重建自身影响力。五年前，美国领导的军队打破了该组织对大片领土和数百万人口的控制。
The group that once terrorized the Middle East and inspired attacks elsewhere in the world is looking to exploit Syria’s uncertain future to rebuild its influence—half a decade after U.S.-led forces broke its hold on swaths of territory and millions of people.
   
元旦当天凌晨，新奥尔良市一名美国退伍军人驾驶着悬挂伊斯兰国旗帜的皮卡冲向人群，造成15人死亡、30人受伤。主管部门称这是一起恐怖袭击事件。这一事件表明伊斯兰国仍很有吸引力。目前尚不清楚袭击者与该组织之间是否存在什么联系，但分析人士警告称会发生独狼式袭击和类似袭击事件。
In a sign of its persistent appeal, a U.S. Army veteran in a pickup flying an Islamic State flag drove through a crowd of people early on New Year’s Day in New Orleans, killing 15 and injuring 30 in what authorities called a terrorist attack. It wasn’t clear what connections, if any, the assailant might have had to the group, but analysts have warned of lone-wolf incidents and copycat attacks.
   
直到最近，打击伊斯兰国残余势力的战斗一直在暗中进行，数百名驻扎在叙利亚腹地的美国特种部队与库尔德民兵组织合作，发动空袭和突袭。军事分析人士表示，美国后来加大了打击力度，包括在以前由阿萨德政府及其俄罗斯盟友控制空域的地区。
The fight against the remnants of Islamic State had until recently happened in the shadows, with hundreds of U.S. Special Forces based in Syria’s hinterlands working with Kurdish militias to carry out airstrikes and raids. The U.S. has since ramped up its attacks, including in areas where the airspace was previously controlled by the government of Bashar al-Assad and its Russian allies, military analysts say.
   
12月8日，阿萨德政权垮台数小时后，美国称其动用B-52轰炸机和F-15战斗机对伊斯兰国的75个目标发动了数十次空袭。大约一周后，美国称其再次发动空袭，至少击毙了12名武装分子。三天后美国表示，又击毙两名伊斯兰国武装分子，其中包括一名高级头目。
On Dec. 8, hours after the Assad regime fell, the U.S. said it hit 75 Islamic State targets with dozens of strikes involving B-52 bombers and F-15 warplanes. About a week later, the U.S. said it had killed at least a dozen militants with another airstrike. Three days later, it said it had killed two more Islamic State operatives, including one of its top leaders.
   
周日，法国出动“阵风”(Rafale)战斗机和一架“死神”(Reaper)无人机，对叙利亚境内的两个目标发动了袭击。法国官员表示，这两个目标与伊斯兰国有关联。
On Sunday, France deployed Rafale jet fighters and a Reaper drone against two targets in Syria that French officials said were linked to Islamic State.


美国特种部队与库尔德民兵合作，对伊斯兰国发动空袭和突袭。

在地区局势迅速变化的情况下，人们对不时轰炸的效果表示担忧。库尔德人团体在打击和遏制伊斯兰国并控制其战斗人员方面发挥了至关重要的作用，目前库尔德人团体面临着由土耳其支持的团体带来的新压力。
There are concerns about the effectiveness of periodic bombings amid the rapidly changing regional landscape. The Kurdish groups that have been crucial in fighting and containing Islamic State and keeping its fighters contained are under new pressure from groups backed by Turkey.
   
土耳其政府认为库尔德人团体是恐怖分子，并正在积极推动土耳其在叙利亚的利益。目前叙利亚由“沙姆解放组织”(Hayat Tahrir al-Sham)控制，这是一个伊斯兰组织，曾与伊斯兰国和基地组织(al Qaeda)有联系，但后来宣布断绝了这种关系。
The Turkish government sees the Kurdish groups as terrorists and is pressing its interests in the country now under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group that once had ties to Islamic State and al Qaeda, which it later renounced.
   
目前还不清楚，美军在叙利亚驻军2,000多人、在伊拉克驻军2,500人左右的情况还能维持多久。阿萨德逃离叙利亚几天后，访问华盛顿的伊拉克官员对伊斯兰国可能卷土重来表示担忧，并要求美国重新评估最近达成的撤军协议。该协议要求几乎所有美军在两年内撤离。
It is also uncertain how long the U.S. military will be able to maintain its presence of more than 2,000 troops in Syria and about 2,500 in Iraq. Days after Assad fled Syria, Iraqi officials visiting Washington expressed concern about the potential resurgence of Islamic State and asked the U.S. to reassess a recently concluded withdrawal agreement that called for nearly all U.S. forces to leave within two years.
   
美国在伊拉克的驻军为其在叙利亚的驻军提供关键支持，对驻伊美军进行调整要由当选总统特朗普(Donald Trump)决定。特朗普在第一个任期内削减了驻军人数。
Any changes to the U.S. presence in Iraq—which provides critical support to the presence in Syria—will be up to President-elect Donald Trump, who cut back troop numbers during his first administration.
   
佛罗里达州共和党众议员迈克·华尔兹(Mike Waltz)是一名退役特种部队军官，预计将担任特朗普的国家安全顾问。他上个月在福斯新闻(Fox News)上表示，尽管特朗普尽力让美军远离外国冲突，但特朗普对伊斯兰国在叙利亚构成的威胁有“清醒的认识”。
Rep. Mike Waltz, (R., Fla.), a retired Special Forces officer who is expected to be Trump’s national security adviser, said last month on Fox News that while the president-elect is focused on keeping U.S. troops out of foreign conflicts, Trump is “clear-eyed” about the threat ISIS poses in Syria.


伊拉克总理穆罕默德·苏达尼表示，他决心阻止伊斯兰国卷土重来。

这种担忧是伊斯兰国活动的显著增加引发的。去年夏季美国和库尔德官员曾告诉《华尔街日报》(The Wall Street Journal)，该组织正在训练新兵，并在叙利亚沙漠集结部队，希望重现其统治一个新的伊斯兰帝国的梦想。去年，武装分子在叙利亚和伊拉克加大了袭击力度，他们袭击检查站、引爆汽车炸弹，并试图解救被监禁的同伙。
The concerns are driven by a significant uptick in Islamic State activity. U.S. and Kurdish officers told The Wall Street Journal over the summer that the group is training new recruits and mustering forces in the Syrian desert in hopes of resurrecting its dream of ruling a new Islamist empire. Fighters increased their pace of attacks in Syria and Iraq last year, targeting checkpoints, detonating car bombs and maneuvering to free their jailed comrades.
   
伊斯兰国是一个逊尼派穆斯林组织，其前身是基地组织的一个分支，该分支在2003年美国主导入侵伊拉克之后与美国和联军作战。随着“阿拉伯之春”在中东各地引发政治和军事动荡，2011年美国从伊拉克撤军。伊斯兰国趁势而起，于2014年占领了叙利亚和伊拉克约3.8万平方英里的领土，这个面积略逊于弗吉尼亚州，并宣布成立一个统治着1,200万人口的哈里发国。
Islamic State, a Sunni Muslim group, emerged from the al Qaeda branch that fought American and coalition forces after the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. The U.S. withdrew from the country in 2011 as the Arab Spring was unleashing political and military instability around the Middle East. Islamic State took advantage and in 2014 seized some 38,000 square miles of territory in Syria and Iraq, an area slightly smaller than Virginia, and declared it a caliphate ruling over 12 million people.
   
美国国务卿安东尼·布林肯(Antony Blinken)在12月份的中东之行中警告说，这些武装分子将寻求在阿萨德政权垮台后留下的真空地带重组。
In a tour of the Middle East in December, Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned that the militants would seek to regroup in the vacuum left by the collapse of the Assad regime.
   
“我们决心确保‘达伊沙’(Daesh)不能死灰复燃，”他告诉记者，“Daesh”是伊斯兰国的一个常见阿拉伯语缩写。
“We are determined to make sure that Daesh cannot re-emerge,” he told reporters, using a common Arabic acronym for Islamic State.
   
伊拉克总理穆罕默德·苏达尼(Mohammed al-Sudani)上周表示，伊斯兰国最近缴获了叙利亚军队的大量武器，可能会利用这些武器在该地区扩张势力。他说，伊拉克和国际联盟正在监控并努力阻止武器转移。
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani said last week Islamic State had recently seized a large quantity of weapons belonging to the Syrian army, which it could use to expand in the region. He said Iraq and the international coalition were monitoring and trying to stop weapons transfers. 
   
美国军方官员及其地区合作伙伴的另一个主要担忧是，关押着伊斯兰国武装分子及其家属的叙利亚东北部监狱和拘留营的安全问题。
Another major concern for U.S. military officials and their regional partners is the security of prisons and detention camps in northeastern Syria that hold Islamic State fighters and their families.
   
据联合国估计，这些营地关押着多达4.5万人，由美国支持的库尔德武装守卫。如果这些武装被土耳其支持的军事行动打败或分散注意力，伊斯兰国武装分子可能设法逃离囚禁。
The camps, which according to a United Nations estimate contain up to 45,000 people, are guarded by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. If those forces are defeated or distracted by a Turkish-backed military campaign, Islamic State militants could find a way to slip their confinement. 
   
“如果这些监狱或营地有事，我们所有人，无论是在叙利亚境内还是境外，都将面临这些恐怖分子的威胁，”苏达尼在上周接受电视采访时说。
“Anything that happens in these prisons or camps, we will all find ourselves—inside Syria and outside it—confronting those terrorists,” the Iraqi prime minister said in a televised interview last week.


2014年，伊斯兰国在叙利亚和伊拉克占领了约38000平方英里的领土。

费城智库中东论坛(Middle East Forum)研究员艾曼·贾瓦德·塔米米(Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi)多年来一直在关注伊斯兰国。他表示，自阿萨德政权垮台以来，伊斯兰国只攻击了美国支持的库尔德武装“叙利亚民主力量”(Syrian Democratic Forces)控制的地区。但塔米米估计，在叙利亚境内行动更加自由意味着，伊斯兰国的一些力量可能已经转移到了该国其他地区，在那里等待时机。
Since the Assad regime collapsed, Islamic State has only attacked areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces, a U.S.-backed Kurdish group, according to Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, a Philadelphia-based think tank, who has tracked the group for years. But greater freedom of movement across Syria may have allowed Islamic State cells to move to other parts of the country where they are biding their time, Tamimi assessed.
    
他说：“我认为他们不会再有2014年那样的实力，但确实存在暴力事件和袭击突然激增的风险，届时‘沙姆解放组织’及其盟友将需要设法镇压。”
“I don’t think they’re going to recreate anything like what they had in 2014, but there is a real risk that you get this sudden surge of violence and wave of attacks that then HTS and its allies will need to find ways to crack down on,” he said.
   
西方官员表示，由于担心叙利亚部分地区的权力真空让伊拉克容易受到伊斯兰国跨境袭击，伊拉克政府目前正在重新考虑对美国驻军的立场。
The Iraqi government is now rethinking its posture toward the U.S. troop presence amid concerns the power vacuum in parts of Syria leaves it vulnerable to a cross-border surge by Islamic State, Western officials said.
   
这些官员表示，在阿萨德倒台几天后，驻伊拉克的美国军方官员就发现了伊拉克官员态度的转变，他们突然变得愿意与美军在后勤和无人机监控等各个环节进行更深入的合作。
Within days of Assad’s fall, U.S. military officials in Iraq saw a different tone from Iraqi officials, who were suddenly amenable to deeper cooperation over everything from logistics to drone surveillance, the officials said.
   
华盛顿近东政策研究所(Washington Institute for Near East Policy)高级研究员迈克尔·奈特斯(Michael Knights)表示，伊拉克人向美国传递的信息是，“你们想留下来，请便。慢慢来。”
The message the Iraqis are delivering to the U.S. is, “you want to stick around, please do. Take your time,” said Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. But he said the Iraqis would only allow operations against Sunni extremists in Syria.
    
拜登政府距离卸任只剩下几周的时间，有关驻伊拉克和叙利亚美军未来的决定权很快将交到特朗普手中。特朗普在第一个任期内曾试图从伊拉克和叙利亚撤军，但在顾问的压力下，他自己叫停了全面撤军。
With only weeks left in the Biden administration, decisions about the future of the U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria will soon be in the hands of Trump, who sought to pull out of Iraq and Syria during his first term, only to halt full withdrawals himself under pressure from his advisers.
  
根据撤军协议，驻扎在巴格达、伊拉克西部和该国其他地区的数以百计的美国和联军士兵将在明年9月前离开，随后驻扎在伊拉克北部城市埃尔比勒的部队将在后年年底前减少驻军。官员们表示，2026年之后，少数士兵可能会以顾问的身份留下来，执行为驻叙利亚美军提供后勤支持等任务。
Under the withdrawal agreement, hundreds of U.S. and coalition troops based in Baghdad, western Iraq and other parts of the country would leave by next September, followed by a drawdown of forces in the northern Iraqi city of Erbil by the end of the following year. A handful of troops could remain after 2026 in an advisory capacity and for missions including providing logistical support to American troops based in Syria, officials said.
   
“局势仍然非常不稳定，在不断变化，我们正在持续评估实地情况，”苏达尼的政策顾问法尔哈德·阿拉丁(Farhad Alaaldin)说。“这种关系的发展需要密切合作和共同努力，从而确定前进的道路。”
“The situation remains very dynamic, constantly evolving and we are evaluating developments on the ground constantly,” said Farhad Alaaldin, policy adviser to the Iraqi prime minister. “The development of this relationship will require close cooperation and mutual effort to shape its path forward.”