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Wall Street banks see gains ahead for stocks and bonds 接受FT调查的十家大型银行对2025年前景总体乐观，但承认特朗普重返白宫以及他如何实施贸易关税和减税等计划，将是金融市场走向的关键。
But Trump’s impact remains major uncertainty for markets, say strategists. 6park.com
华尔街策略师们表示，股票和债券市场将在2025年上涨，但对投资者来说最大的不确定性将是美国候任总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的政策选择。 6park.com 6park.comTen major banks surveyed by the Financial Times, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and HSBC, are on average upbeat on next year, with many of 2024’s themes set to continue. 6park.com接受英国《金融时报》调查的十家大型银行——包括高盛(Goldman Sachs)、美国银行(Bank of America)和汇丰(HSBC)——对明年的前景总体乐观。他们预计2024年的许多主题将会继续塑造市场。 6park.com 6park.comBut they admit that Trump’s arrival in the White House next month and how he implements plans such as trade tariffs and tax cuts will be key for the direction of financial markets. 6park.com但他们承认，特朗普1月入主白宫——以及他如何实施贸易关税和减税等计划——将是金融市场走向的关键。 6park.com 6park.comMeanwhile, banks will also be aiming to avoid a repeat of last year, where many predicted a looming recession that failed to materialise. 6park.com与此同时，各银行也将力求避免重复去年的错误，当时许多银行预测一场经济衰退正扑面而来，结果这一预测并未应验。 6park.com 6park.com
Equity and bond markets are set for gains in 2025 but the big uncertainty for investors will be the policy choices of incoming US president Donald Trump, say Wall Street strategists. 6park.comBonds 6park.comStrategists expect US government bond yields to fall as inflation retreats in the first half of next year, but uncertainty around what Trump will do immediately after taking office has led to a range of views on what happens after that. 6park.com策略师们预计，随着2025年上半年通胀回落，美国政府债券收益率将会下降，但对于在那之后将会发生什么，围绕特朗普上任初期将会采取什么行动的不确定性引发了各不相同的看法。 6park.com 6park.comOn average, strategists expect the US 10-year yield to fall to around 4.1 per cent from current levels of around 4.49 per cent. Morgan Stanley has set out a more bullish base case of 3.6 per cent, but Deutsche Bank expects yields to climb to 4.7 per cent. Yields fall as prices rise. 6park.com平均而言，策略师们预计美国10年期国债收益率将从目前的4.49%左右降至4.1%左右。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)设定了更为乐观的3.6%基线情景，但德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)预计收益率将攀升至4.7%。债券价格与收益率走势相反。 6park.com 6park.comThe Federal Reserve will be “walking a tightrope” next year ahead of Trump’s administration kicking into gear, said Vishwanath Tirupattur, global director of fixed income research at Morgan Stanley. 6park.com摩根士丹利全球固定收益研究主管维什瓦纳特•蒂鲁帕图尔(Vishwanath Tirupattur)表示，在特朗普政府的政策明朗化之前，明年美联储(Federal Reserve)将“如履薄冰”。 6park.com 6park.comThe US bank expects the Fed to keep cutting borrowing costs until the middle of next year before inflationary forces from wide-ranging tariffs “force a pause” in rate cuts. 6park.com这家美国银行预计，美国央行在明年年中之前将会继续削减借款成本，之后，大范围关税带来的通胀压力将“迫使降息暂停”。 6park.com 6park.comIn contrast, Deutsche Bank said the market was too optimistic and its own base case relied on “current political realities” of fiscal easing, deregulation, tighter immigration controls and across-the board tariffs. All of these measures point to upward pressure on inflation, it added. 6park.com与此形成反差的是，德意志银行称市场过于乐观，而该行自己的基线情景立足于财政宽松、放松管制、加强移民控制和全面关税等“当前政治现实”。该行补充道，所有这些衡量标准都指向通胀面临上行压力。 6park.com 6park.comThe Fed is already showing it is slowing the pace of rate cuts. Its decision this month was viewed as a “hawkish” cut, as it scaled back expectations for further reductions next year and incorporated assumptions about Trump’s planned policies into its forecasts. 6park.com美联储已经表明它将放缓降息步伐。美国央行在本月做出的降息决定被视为“鹰派色彩的”降息，因为它在宣布降息的同时缩减了对明年进一步降息的预期，并将关于特朗普政策计划的假设纳入预测。 6park.com 6park.com
债券Equities 6park.comIn the equity market, banks expect the benchmark S&P 500 index to reach fresh highs next year, but most believe it will underperform its historical annual average of 11 per cent. 6park.com在股票市场，各银行预计标普500指数(S&P 500)明年将创下新高，但大多数银行认为其表现将低于11%的历史年均水平。 6park.com 6park.comNine of the 10 banks expect the index, which has soared 23 per cent this year to around 5,930, to climb by roughly 10 per cent in 2025 to around 6,550 points. Société Générale expects it to fall to 5,800. 6park.com这一美国基准股指今年已飙升23%，至5930点左右。10家银行中的9家预计，该指数在2025年将攀升约10%，至6550点左右。法国兴业银行(Société Générale)预计该指数将跌至5800点。 6park.com 6park.comDeutsche Bank expects it to climb as high as 7,000 points on the back of the persistent strength of the US economy, although it said the timing of potential shifts in policy under the incoming president will be key to how the market performs. 6park.com德意志银行预计，在美国经济持续强劲的推动下，该指数将攀升至7000点，尽管该行也表示，新总统潜在改变政策的时机将是市场表现的关键。 6park.com 6park.comThe bank is confident that a rally driven by investors’ huge appetite for artificial intelligence stocks will persist. “Valuations are unambiguously high but likely to sustain and maybe even go higher,” said Bankim Chadha, Deutsche’s chief US equities strategist. 6park.com该行相信，由投资者踊跃买入人工智能(AI)概念股所推动的股市涨势将会持续。德意志银行首席美国股票策略师班基姆•查达(Bankim Chadha)表示：“估值无疑较高，但很可能会保持在高位，甚至进一步上升。” 6park.comBut other analysts said they are waiting for signs that the technology will lead to a revenue uplift for companies. 6park.com但其他分析师表示，他们正在等待AI技术提振企业营收的迹象。 6park.com 6park.comDrew Pettit, an analyst at Citigroup, said there were “examples of [investor] exuberance” that could mean a more negative outcome in 2025, with uncertainty over Trump’s policies potentially weighing further on the index. “We expect more volatility. It is not going to be a comfortable ride,” he said. 6park.com花旗集团(Citigroup)分析师德鲁•佩蒂特(Drew Pettit)表示，有过一些“投资者兴奋过头的事例”，这可能意味着2025年的结局更为负面，而围绕特朗普政策的不确定性可能会进一步拖累标普500指数。“我们预计会有更大的波动性。这不会是一段轻松的旅程。”他表示。 6park.com 6park.comBanks also expect European equities to rise, with potential tailwinds if European Central Bank cuts rates more quickly, there is an end to the war in Ukraine or the political situations in France and Germany start to stabilise. 6park.com各银行还预计欧洲股市将会上涨。如果欧洲央行(ECB)加快降息、乌克兰战争结束，或法国和德国的政治局势开始企稳，都将给股市带来利好。 6park.com 6park.comFive of the 10 banks surveyed expected European equities to rise next year. While few were bearish, UBS is alone in expecting the market to turn negative next year. 6park.com接受调查的10家银行中，有5家预计2025年欧洲股市将会攀升。尽管没几家银行持悲观看法，但瑞银(UBS)预计明年市场将转向负面。 6park.com 6park.comGerry Fowler, head of European equity strategy at the Swiss bank, said the market was cheap but would trade sideways next year. 6park.com这家瑞士银行的欧洲股票策略主管格里•福勒(Gerry Fowler)表示，欧洲股市估值不高，但明年将大体上处于横盘整理状态。 6park.com 6park.com“Europe seems to have stalled,” he said. “There are very few investors that are optimistic . . . 2025 is shaping up to be a challenging [year] for Europe.” 6park.com“欧洲似乎已陷入停滞，”他表示，“没几个投资者持乐观态度……对欧洲来说，2025年将是富于挑战的一年。” 6park.com
股票Currencies 6park.comMore than half of the banks surveyed expect Trump’s policies to drive the dollar even higher next year, despite the president-elect raising concerns about what this means for America’s competitiveness against its trading partners. 6park.com逾半受访银行预计特朗普的政策将在明年进一步推高美元，尽管当选总统担忧这对美国相对于贸易伙伴竞争力的潜在影响。 6park.com 6park.comDeutsche Bank expects the dollar to reach parity against the euro, which experienced the largest decline of any G10 currency in the immediate aftermath of November’s US presidential election. The dollar has already jumped from $1.11 against the euro to less than $1.04 since the end of September. 6park.com德意志银行预计美元对欧元将达到平价。11月美国总统大选后，欧元曾出现十国集团(G10)货币中最大的跌幅。从9月底至今，美元对欧元已从1欧元兑1.11美元跃升至1欧元兑不到1.04美元。 6park.com 6park.comKamakshya Trivedi, head of global foreign exchange, interest rates and emerging markets strategy at Goldman Sachs, said that Trump’s preference for tariffs as a policy measure helped lift spot prices. 6park.com高盛全球外汇、利率和新兴市场策略主管卡马克什亚•特里维迪(Kamakshya Trivedi)表示，特朗普将关税用作一项政策措施的偏好，帮助提升了美元现货价格。 6park.com 6park.com“President Trump will have no compunction about large tariff increases . . . We expect the policy mix of tariff hikes and tax cuts will lend significant support to the dollar over the coming year,” Trivedi said. 6park.com“特朗普总统不会对大幅提高关税感到内疚……我们预计提高关税与减税的政策组合将在未来一年为美元提供重要支撑。”特里维迪表示。 6park.com 6park.comBofA expects the greenback to strengthen in early 2025 but weaken back to $1.10 by the end of next year as Trump’s rhetoric is translated into hard policy, with the market responding to the expectations of a “perfect storm of tariffs” rather than implemented policies. 6park.com美国银行预计，美元将在2025年初走强，但随着特朗普的言论转化为具体政策，而市场对有关“完美关税风暴”的预期（而非实施到位的政策）做出回应，到明年底美元将回落至1欧元兑1.10美元。 6park.com 6park.com“We know tariffs are coming, but we don’t know what they’ll be,” said Kamal Sharma, senior FX strategist at BofA. “The ball is in Trump’s court.” 6park.com“我们知道关税即将到来，但我们不知道具体会是怎样的。”美国银行高级外汇策略师卡迈勒•夏尔马(Kamal Sharma)表示，“球在特朗普手中。” 6park.com
外汇Gold 6park.comThe haven asset is widely expected to continue its ascent following a stunning year on the back of the war in Ukraine and the Middle East. Analysts expect demand from central banks and fears of inflation and fiscal profligacy to be the driving forces next year. 6park.com在乌克兰和中东战争的背景下，这一避险资产经历了令人惊叹的一年。普遍预计它将继续上涨。分析师们预计，各国央行的需求——以及各方对通胀和财政挥霍的担心——将在明年成为金价的驱动力。 6park.com 6park.comGoldman Sachs and BofA expect the commodity to climb nearly 13 per cent to $3,000 per troy ounce, though this would be less than half the gain seen this year. On average, major banks expect an 8 per cent rise to $2,860. 6park.com高盛和美国银行预计金价将攀升近13%，至每盎司3000美元，尽管这将不到今年涨幅的一半。各大银行平均预计金价将上涨8%，至2860美元。 6park.com 6park.comOnly Morgan Stanley has bet that prices will remain at around current levels, with strategists expecting China’s weak economy to be a headwind for bullion demand. 6park.com只有摩根士丹利押注金价将保持在当前水平上下，策略师们预计中国经济疲弱将成为黄金需求的阻力。 6park.com 6park.com
黄金Oil 6park.comAlthough producer group Opec+ has set out plans this month to delay production increases to support prices, banks still expect Brent to slide further to around $70 per barrel by the end of next year, from around $72.80 on Friday afternoon. 6park.com尽管产油国组织欧佩克+(OPEC+)本月阐述了推迟增产以支撑油价的计划，但各银行仍预计布伦特原油(Brent crude)到明年底将进一步下滑至每桶70美元左右。上周五下午，这一国际基准油价为每桶72.80美元左右。 6park.com 6park.comKim Fustier, HSBC’s head of European oil and gas research, said the cartel’s moves were unlikely to shift the direction of prices. “Non-OPEC production is set to grow faster than demand over 2025-26, leaving the group no space to unwind its cuts,” she said. 6park.com汇丰欧洲油气市场研究主管金•福斯蒂尔(Kim Fustier)表示，欧佩克+的举措不太可能改变价格走势。“2025-26年，非欧佩克国家的产量增长将快于需求，使该组织没有解除减产措施的空间。”她表示。 6park.com 6park.comBut Goldman Sachs, which has set a forecast of $76 per barrel, said that commercial stocks were visibly down in recent months and prices would benefit from strategic restocking in the US and China next year. 6park.com但预测油价将达到每桶76美元的高盛表示，近几个月商业库存明显下降，而油价还将受益于美国和中国在2025年进行战略性库存补充。
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