Japan Consumer Prices Rise Faster as Rate Hike Timing Under Scrutiny


日本11月份消费者价格加速上涨，加剧了人们对日本央行加息的预期，但物价上涨幅度可能还不足以促使日本央行立即采取行动。


日本11月份消费者价格加速上涨，加剧了人们对日本央行加息的预期。

日本11月份消费者价格加速上涨，加剧了人们对日本央行加息的预期，但物价上涨幅度可能还不足以促使日本央行立即采取行动，尤其是在日本央行仍对国内外不确定性持谨慎态度之际。 6park.com
Japan’s consumer inflation sped up in November, fanning rate-hike hopes, but price growth may not be strong enough yet to rush an immediate move, especially as the central bank remains wary about uncertainties at home and abroad. 6park.com
    
日本政府周五公布的数据显示，11月份日本整体CPI同比上涨2.9%，10月份涨幅为2.3%。 6park.com
Overall consumer prices rose 2.9% in November from a year earlier, compared with the 2.3% growth seen in October, government data showed Friday. ​ 6park.com
   
由于政府对电力和天然气的补贴力度减弱，能源价格上涨6.0%，10月份涨幅为2.3%。生鲜食品价格上涨8.7%，10月份涨幅为2.1%。 6park.com
Energy prices rose 6.0% due to the fading effects of government subsidies for electricity and gas, compared with a 2.3% increase in October. Fresh food prices spiked 8.7% after rising 2.1% in the previous month. 6park.com
   
数据显示，剔除生鲜食品和能源价格的核心CPI也逐步上升。11月份核心CPI上涨2.4%，10月份涨幅为2.3%。 6park.com
The data showed that underlying inflation is also increasing gradually. The index excluding volatile fresh food and energy prices rose 2.4% after October’s 2.3% increase. 6park.com
   
这一结果料将佐证日本央行会很快加息的观点。日本央行在周四会议上决定维持政策设置不变，等待美国经济政策和日本薪资趋势的明朗化。 6park.com
The result will likely add support to views that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates soon. The central bank decided to keep policy settings unchanged at Thursday’s meeting as it waits for more clarity on U.S. economic policies and wage trends in Japan. 6park.com
   
市场认为，日本央行会议传递的信息偏向于宽松，一些人推迟了对下次加息时间的预期。一些经济学家仍预计日本央行将在1月下旬将政策利率从0.25%上调至0.5%，但另一些经济学家则认为，加息时间可能会推迟到3月份。 6park.com
Markets viewed the messaging from the BOJ’s meeting as dovish-leaning, with some pushing out their timeline for the next rate hike. Some economists still expect the BOJ to raise its policy rate to 0.5% from 0.25% in late January, while others see scope for a delay to March. 6park.com
    6park.com
瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)经济学家片木亮介(Ryosuke Katagi)表示，日圆走软将推高商品价格，而企业料将继续缓慢地将劳动力成本上涨转嫁到服务价格上。 6park.com
Mizuho Securities economist Ryosuke Katagi said a weak yen would keep goods inflation, while companies are expected to continue passing a rise in labor expenses to services prices slowly. 6park.com
     
片木亮介称：“仅从通胀角度看，日本央行可以随时考虑再次加息。” 6park.com
“From the perspective of inflation alone, the BOJ can consider an additional interest-rate hike at any time,” Katagi said. 6park.com
    
但也有人指出，周五的数据还不足以坚定支持1月份采取行动。 6park.com
Others say, however, Friday’s data isn’t strong enough to firmly support January action. 6park.com
   
索尼金融(Sony Financial Group)经济学家宫嶋贵之(Takayuki Miyajima)指出，11月份物价上涨的主要原因是能源和食品价格上涨，而服务业通胀并未加速。 6park.com
Takayuki Miyajima, an economist at Sony Financial Group, pointed out that the pickup in November was due largely to energy and food prices, and service inflation didn’t accelerate. 6park.com
    
宫嶋贵之表示：“这不太可能成为促使日本央行在1月份再次加息的因素。” 6park.com
“It is unlikely to be a factor to encourage an additional rate hike in January,” Miyajima said. 6park.com
   
11月份服务价格同比上涨1.5%，与10月份涨幅持平。日本央行行长植田和男(Kazuo Ueda)此前表示，该行正密切关注服务价格，服务价格往往反映劳动力成本的上涨。 6park.com
Services prices rose 1.5% in November from a year earlier, the same pace recorded in October. BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda has previously said that the bank is paying close attention to service prices, which tend to reflect a rise in labor costs. 6park.com
   
植田和男周四称，他希望看到“额外一组”积极数据，以便日本央行就加息做出决定。 6park.com
Ueda said Thursday he wanted to see “one more notch” of positive data for the bank to decide on raising rates. 6park.com
   
今年以来，日本通胀率一直稳定在日本央行2%的目标附近，但低于2023年的水平。一些经济学家表示，下一轮工资谈判的结果可能不如今年强劲，因为通胀似乎已过峰值。 6park.com
Inflation has been trending steadily around the bank’s target of 2% this year but it was milder than in 2023. Some economists say results of next wage negotiations may not be as strong as this year’s because inflation seems to be past its peak.