2024 Has Been a Year of Extremes in the Stock Market. Can It Last?


在2000年至2023年期间，美国股市的回报率已是国际股市的两倍多，而基于MSCI明晟指数的表现，今年又上涨29%。随着AI的兴起，经济发生改变。押注于简单回归均值的投资者可能会失望。


科技股“七雄”占标普500指数的比例已从2023年底时的约四分之一升至约三分之一。

股市：过去的剧情不会重演。 6park.com
Stocks: They don’t make them like they used to. 6park.com
   
2024年，极端的市场趋势变得更加极端。在2000年至2023年期间，美国股市的回报率已经是国际股市的两倍多，而基于MSCI明晟指数的表现，今年美国股市又上涨了29%，非美国股市的回报率不到9%。 6park.com
In 2024, extreme market trends have become even more so. U.S. equities, which had already more than doubled the performance of international ones between 2000 and 2023, have delivered a further 29% return, compared with less than 9% for non-U.S. stocks, based on MSCI indexes. 6park.com
   
这是因为美元进一步升值，而且科技股“七雄”占标普500指数的比例已从2023年底时的约四分之一升至约三分之一。美股“七雄”包括苹果公司(Apple)、微软(Microsoft)、亚马逊(Amazon.com)、Alphabet、Meta Platforms、特斯拉(Tesla)和英伟达(Nvidia)。 6park.com
This is because of further U.S. dollar appreciation and because the technology-related Magnificent Seven—Apple, Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Nvidia—have grown to make up about a third of the S&P 500, compared with roughly a quarter at the end of 2023. 6park.com
  
大盘股的涨势非常迅猛，尽管标普小型股600指数受益于特朗普(Trump)交易，但仍落后于大盘股。在历史上，小型股的相对市盈率与今天一样低的重要时期包括20世纪70年代的“漂亮50”(Nifty Fifty)时代和20世纪90年代末的互联网泡沫时期。这些时期之后，小型股的表现远远好于蓝筹股。 6park.com
The megacap rally has been so brutal that the S&P SmallCap 600 has lagged behind despite receiving a bump from the Trump trade. Fateful past periods of small-caps’ having relative price/earnings ratios as low as today include the Nifty Fifty era of the 1970s and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. In the aftermath of these episodes, small-caps went on to outperform blue chips significantly. 6park.com
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欧洲斯托克600指数看起来估值也较低，这不仅仅是因为其成分股中几乎没有科技股。美国股市每个板块的估值都比欧洲股市更高。例如，联合利华(Unilever)的预期市盈率为18倍，而宝洁公司(Procter & Gamble)为24倍；埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)的预期市盈率为14倍，而壳牌(Shell)为8倍。 6park.com
The Stoxx Europe 600 looks cheap, too, and not just because it has little tech. U.S. stocks are pricier in every single sector. Unilever has a forward P/E ratio of 18, compared with 24 for Procter & Gamble, for example, while Exxon Mobil scores 14 and Shell eight.  6park.com
此外，自20世纪80年代以来，经通胀调整后的美元汇率从未像现在这样持续强劲，美元在80年代之后开始了长达数十年的贬值。 6park.com
Also, the dollar hasn’t been as consistently strong in inflation-adjusted terms since the 1980s, which then became the start of a decadeslong depreciation. 6park.com
   
因此，如果过去的模式重演，那么长期投资者只需避开拥挤交易，买入低价股票，然后静观其变即可。但这只是一个很大的“如果”。 6park.com
So, if past patterns reassert themselves, long-term investors must only avoid the crowded trades, buy the discounted stocks and sit pretty. But this is a big “if.” 6park.com
  
贝莱德(BlackRock)在最近发布的2025年展望报告中表示：“随着人工智能的兴起等强大力量使经济发生改变，历史趋势正实时地被永久打破。” 6park.com
“Historical trends are being permanently broken in real time as mega forces, like the rise of artificial intelligence, transform economies,” said BlackRock in its recent outlook for 2025. 6park.com
   
这家全球资产规模最大的投资管理公司建议投资者坚持投资美国股市，拥抱主动管理型基金，并深入私募市场。这与贝莱德自身的商业战略相吻合（该公司最近宣布收购私募信贷公司HPS Investment Partners)，但也正确地强调了估值并不是孤立存在的。 6park.com
The world’s top investment manager by assets recommends that investors stick with U.S. stocks, embrace actively managed funds and delve into private markets. This conveniently aligns with BlackRock’s own commercial strategy—it recently announced the purchase of the private-credit firm HPS Investment Partners—but correctly highlights that valuations don’t exist in a vacuum.  6park.com
   
在2008-09年金融危机之后，大多数西方国家的GDP即使在经济复苏情况下也保持在较低的增长轨道上。这打破了人们对经济具有均值回归性的先入为主的观念，并使对“滞后效应”的研究流行起来，即短期冲击如何产生长期影响。 6park.com
After the 2008-09 financial crisis, the gross domestic product of most Western countries stuck to a lower trajectory even as growth recovered. This shattered preconceptions about economies’ being mean-reverting, and popularized the study of “hysteresis,” or how short-term shocks can have long-lasting effects. 6park.com
  
后来新冠疫情暴发，当时美国通过向家庭发放现金和增加失业救济金来修正路线。美国还受益于其培育的科技巨头，新冠疫情期间的数字经济以及之后生成式AI的兴起，这波双重浪潮让科技巨头趁势而起。这些措施奏效了：美国GDP已经高于新冠疫情前趋势所暗示的水平。 6park.com
Then came the pandemic, when the U.S. course-corrected by mailing cash to households and increasing unemployment benefits. It also benefited from having fostered tech giants that rode the dual waves of a more-digital economy during Covid and the rise of generative AI thereafter. It worked: U.S. gross domestic product is already above where the pre-Covid trend suggested it would be.  6park.com
   
与此同时，更加紧缩的“旧经济体”欧元区似乎再次遭受了持久的打击。过去几个月的经济表现令人失望，抵消了2024年初意外的积极表现。 6park.com
Meanwhile, the more austere, “old economy” eurozone appears to have suffered another enduring hit. Positive economic surprises in early 2024 have been offset by a disappointing past few months. 6park.com
  
在整个疫情后时期，欧洲央行一直参照美联储的做法，大幅加息，而忽视了欧元区经济更加疲软的状况。 6park.com
Throughout the postpandemic period, the European Central Bank has taken cues from the Federal Reserve and set interest rates aggressively high, disregarding that it was dealing with a weaker economy.  6park.com
    
由于中国产能过剩和美国关税威胁，欧盟的出口导向型模式面临前所未有的严峻挑战。尽管前欧洲央行行长德拉吉(Mario Draghi)制定了一项行动计划，但由于德国和法国持续的政治危机，欧盟更难制定出一项连贯的产业政策。 6park.com
The European Union’s export-led model is more challenged than ever by Chinese overcapacity and the threat of U.S. tariffs. Ongoing political crises in Germany and France make it even harder for the bloc to establish a coherent industrial policy, despite an action plan from former ECB President Mario Draghi. 6park.com
   
至于新兴市场，它们在本世纪初可能得以蓬勃发展，但事实证明，除了亚洲以外，其他地区并未实现经济趋同。自2008-09年金融危机以来，这些国家已经学会更好地保护自己免受金融冲击，但这意味着允许本国货币进一步贬值，并积累美元外汇储备。不仅如此，页岩气革命已使美国成为能源净出口国。 6park.com
As for emerging markets, they might have boomed during the early 2000s, but the promise of economic convergence has turned out to be unfulfilled outside Asia. Since the 2008-09 financial crisis, these nations have learned to protect themselves better against financial shocks, but this has meant allowing local currencies to depreciate more and building up dollar coffers. To boot, the shale revolution has turned the U.S. into a net energy exporter. 6park.com
   
这些都是美元走强的来源。尽管特朗普可能更希望看到美元汇率走低，但20世纪80年代的经验表明，要实现这一点，需要国际社会协调一致的努力。 6park.com
These are all sources of strength for the dollar. As much as Donald Trump might prefer a cheaper exchange rate, the experience of the 1980s suggests that it would take a coordinated international effort to achieve it. 6park.com
   
再以美国小盘股为例。20年前，它们的资产回报率仅略低于标普500指数，而现在的回报率只有标普500指数的三分之一，这既是因为大型股变得更有利可图，也是因为在交易所交易的高质量小公司减少了。 6park.com
Or take U.S. small-caps. Their return on assets was only slightly below the S&P 500’s two decades ago. Now it is at a third, both because megacaps have become more profitable and because there are fewer high-quality small companies traded on exchanges.  6park.com
   
世界银行(World Bank)的《世界发展指标》(WDI)数据显示，从1996年的峰值到2022年，美国上市公司数量减少了43%，而同期海外市场的上市公司数量一直在增长。总体而言，研究发现，这是因为现金充裕的大公司正在收购更多公司。但在过去10年里，私募市场规模翻了一番，这也帮助最优秀的小企业在更长时间内保持非上市状态。在纳斯达克上市的公司平均规模变得更大，成立时间也更长。 6park.com
Between the 1996 peak and 2022, the number of listed U.S. companies fell 43%, even as it kept growing abroad, World Bank WDI figures show. Overall, this is because cash-rich megacorporations are buying more companies, research finds. But the doubling in size of private markets over the past 10 years is also helping the best small businesses stay private for longer. The average company listing on the Nasdaq has become larger and older. 6park.com
   
只需要少数几家超级明星绕过小盘股领域，就能解释所有小盘股的估值都偏低的原因。Kenneth French和Eugene Fama发现，这些股票过去之所以表现出色，是因为有几家公司后来发展壮大，进入了更大的类别。 6park.com
It only takes a few superstars to bypass the small-cap universe to justify a lower valuation for all. Kenneth French and Eugene Fama identified that the past outperformance of these stocks has come from a few companies that graduate to a larger category.  6park.com
   
诚然，市盈率等指标的巨大差异可能预示着市场存在泡沫。但押注于简单回归均值的投资者可能会失望。现在的股市已经今非昔比了。 6park.com
To be sure, huge divergences in things such as P/E ratios could be signaling some froth in markets. But investors betting on a simple reversion to the mean might be disappointed. This isn’t your grandfather’s stock market.